Update 8-19-17: I have appended some very specific recommendations for what to do about this problem at the end of this article.
The North Korea atomic weapons crisis has come to a
head. Understanding this situation is a
whole lot easier than many think. Like a
boil, it must be lanced.
They now have the 4 elements needed to present a credible
nuclear missile threat to the US and many other nations. Those are a big-enough rocket, a nuclear warhead small enough to ride that
rocket, a guidance system to get it near
its target, and a heat shield for the
warhead to survive reentry.
The recent high-arcing rocket tests demonstrate they have
made sufficient progress on all four fronts.
The trajectory shows the capability of hitting the US if aimed
differently, the intelligence
communities agree they have a bomb small enough to ride that particular
rocket, and the fact that these test
flights have not gone astray shows that the guidance works. “Something” from these rockets have
been tracked to impact from these tests,
which very strongly suggests that the heat shield works.
Whether this ICBM is actually reliable is beside the point, same as it was with ours and Russia’s in the
late 1950’s. If they launched
several, at least a few would get to the
target. Now that he has a credible weapon, Kim Jong Un is ready to play the age-old
blackmail game. This is a pattern known
across millennia of history, but most
folks would recognize the name Adolf Hitler.
The game is played thusly:
the aggressive one makes a threat to do something “unspeakable” unless
he gets what he wants. He must be
willing to risk getting slapped down for it,
but throughout history, most of
those who are willing to make the threat, have been willing to take that risk.
Between the World Wars,
that “unspeakable” threat was to wage war at all, based on the horrifying experiences of World
War 1. Since World War 2, the “unspeakable” threat has been to wage
nuclear war. Notice how lots of
conventional wars have been waged since then?
Only the technology deemed “unspeakable” has changed. The game remains the same.
Kim Jong Un may seem crazy to us, but he is crazy like a fox. It is not yet clear what he wants, but he has already made the threat to nuke
Guam. His risk bet is that we won’t actually
go to war over an island far from our shores.
That is why he has not yet threatened the lower 48 states.
But as this escalates,
Hawaii and Alaska are at risk,
because of US military assets in both places, plus our allies in the region. Eventually,
he would attack the lower 48 as a final act of desperation. We’ve seen this pattern many times before.
And escalate it will!
Just like with Hitler and the Nazis in 1930’s Europe. This scenario has played out countless times
over history. Kim Jong Un is following a
long-established pattern like it was a cooking recipe. This is perfectly predictable.
Of course, there is
no excuse not to pursue a diplomatic solution.
Basic humanity on our part demands it.
But, don’t hold your breath for
it to work! It didn’t work with
Hitler, or his predecessors.
What worked was raw naked force. The only question is how much you have to use, and that increases as time goes by. This is very much like a boil: the longer you let it fester, the more it hurts when you lance it, and more damage there is to heal afterwards.
It is very important that we not
strike the first blow, and that would be
true, even without any pronouncements
from the Chinese as to whether they get involved or stay neutral. It is also important that we not resort to
half measures, such as only striking
test sites.
This is the main lesson of World War
2: you go “whole hawg or none”. If North Korea strikes Guam or anywhere
else, we take out Kim Jong Un and his
entire government. Regime change or
nothing. Period.
It would be nice if we could kill Kim Jong Un and all his
government functionaries by destroying them in their big government complex in
Pyongyang, without killing all the
civilians in the surrounding city. Then
there’s no need to send one tank or one soldier across the border, or to commit genocide by nuking the city.
The size of that complex demands that we use a deep-penetrating
“bunker-buster” projectile fitted with a small nuclear warhead, exploded deep underground, and turning the complex into a contained
rubble pile in a pit, too radioactive to
enter. For the most part, the city and the people survive, only Kim Jong Un and his government die.
But I haven’t ever heard that we actually have such a
weapon! North Korea has been festering
since 1953, so it’s not like we haven’t
foreseen this problem coming. This lack
for so long a time makes me think we have spent an awful lot of money on the
wrong weapons, not the ones we really
needed.
Think about THAT the next time you go vote. Which is now too late to do anything about
any of this.
Meanwhile, sleep
tight!
Update 8-19-17: Appended Specific Recommendations:
Specific
Recommendations Regarding North Korea
First, privately among ourselves, we must agree upon three things:
(1) We will put an end to the regime if they launch any sort
of weapon at any US territory or ally,
anywhere in the world.
(2) We will accomplish this from a distance: no invasion,
no occupation.
(3) We would like to do this with minimal loss of civilian
life on all sides, but accomplishing an
end to that ugly regime is higher priority than saving those lives.
Second, we tell North Korea publicly that “we will
put a permanent end to their regime if they launch any weapon toward any US
territory or ally, anywhere in the world”. This should be calm, quiet,
succinct, and very much to the
point. No questions, no discussion. No bluster.
Just that fact.
Third, we tell China very privately that we will put
an end to the North Korean regime because they did not control the rogue regime
that they created. We tell them we will
not invade or occupy, because that is
not in our interests. It was in their
interests to control what they created,
but they did not do their job.
Our action will inevitably leave a failed state on their
doorstep, something neither of us
wanted. But because of them not doing their
job, it is only fair that they clean up
the failed state mess that we leave for them.
No questions, no discussion. Not negotiable. Best for them and for us.
Fourth, among ourselves, and probably in a deeply-classified information
scenario, we must address exactly how we
will utterly destroy that regime from a standoff distance, both “right now”, and within the next year or so. There will be no invasion (not even
temporarily), no occupation. It is best to do this without even sending
manned aircraft.
We do this with standoff weapons, and preferably not ICBM’s, which could be mistaken for an attack on
China. Tactical (not strategic) weapon
trajectories are an imperative here.
The goal is to suddenly destroy the entire governmental complex
in Pyongyang, in a completely-surprise
attack, at a time we choose, not just an immediate knee-jerk
response. The hope is to catch Kim Jong
Un and his top staff there, and kill
them all in the sudden utter destruction of that complex. If we miss him, then we target other installations where he
might be, in a similar fashion. We keep up the strikes until we get him, no matter how long it takes. Then we quit.
A tactical missile with a nuclear warhead can do that job
right now, but with enormous civilian
casualties and the destruction of much of the city. That outcome would resemble Hiroshima and
Nagasaki, so it is imperative that they
strike first, no if’s, and’s,
or but’s about that. Such a
weapon could be launched from Japan,
South Korea, or a ship (or
submarine) at sea close by.
However, some sort of
tactical missile might possibly be fitted with a deep-penetrating
“bunker-buster” nuclear warhead. It
would likely be a larger tactical missile due to the weight of the Earth penetrator
and the necessary speed at impact.
Such a strike would excavate out a cavity under the
foundations of the government complex,
shatter that complex into rubble,
and contain that radioactive rubble by its collapse into the excavation
pit. There would be some surface
fallout, but not nearly as much as the usual
“city-busting” scenario. In this underground
nuclear scenario, most of Pyongyang and
its civilian population would survive in good shape. That is the preferred scenario.
The questions we must ask ourselves in this private, classified discussion are two-fold.
(1) Do we possess such a weapon? If yes,
we’re “good-to-go” immediately.
(2) If not, how soon
could we have one? And then get on with
it as a “crash program”. Speed is
crucial.
Finally, I would add that this crisis has been long
foreseen. If we have no such suitable weapon
to end it with minimal civilian casualties,
why is that? How do we fix that management
lack?
(end update 8-19-17)
Update 8-23-17: the same nuclear bunker-buster I suggested for decapitating the North Korean regime, would work against the underground hardened nuclear production facilities in Iran. That need would arise if they choose to violate the agreement and start building bombs (a real risk). I repeat: do we have such a weapon? If not, why not?
Update 9-19-17: After thinking about it for a while, I believe the real reason Kim Jong Un wants nuclear weapons is to extort the reunification of Korea on his terms. The threat of nuclear attack "wherever" is the threat by which to ward off the counter-invasion that topples his regime. I still say we do this by standoff strike, not invasion. We leave the failed state on China's doorstep to clean up. It's only fair, they created this abortion.
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