How to Stop the Ukraine War

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This was also submitted as a potential article to the Waco “Trib” 11-24-2022,  and sent 11-28-2022 as a letter to the President of the United States.

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This article was used as a board of contributors item in the Waco "Trib" Sunday 12-4-2022.

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Whatever that was,  that fell in Poland and killed 2 civilians,  it came closer to starting direct war between Russia and NATO,  than anyone wants to admit in public.  There is some reason to believe the story that this was a Russian-made air defense missile fired by Ukraine that went astray,  and there is also some reason not to believe it.  Either way,  something like this is liable to start the war with NATO that goes out of control,  leading to nuclear war. 

I think pressuring Ukraine to negotiate with a Russia still occupying and destroying Ukraine,  is misguided at best,  and probably morally wrong!  Russia rarely negotiated in good faith as the Soviet Union,  and it is still behaving that same way under Putin today.  Nothing Putin (or any of his minions) says can be trusted,  that much we know for sure,  given the last 8 years' history regarding Ukraine.  But we do know they understand and fear the risks of war with NATO.  There’s a 7-decade history for that.

I would therefore recommend that we leverage those fears with a 3-fold ultimatum from NATO to Putin: 

(1) If a Russian-made weapons falls in a NATO country again,  regardless of whoever fired it,  then NATO is at war with you.  Such is a presumptive attack,  and response is thus an Article 5 thing.

(2) If any weapons hit that nuclear power plant in Ukraine,  regardless of who fired them,  then NATO is at war with you.  Radioactive fallout hitting NATO countries is also a presumptive attack,  and thus an Article 5 thing.

(3) If you continue (past a stated short-term date) committing war crimes in Ukraine by targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure,  deliberately or not,  then NATO is at war with you. 

Then move very large armies into place,  on NATO’s side of all the relevant borders,  to enforce it.  The notion is “Putin,  stop the war,  or be destroyed”.  It’s that ugly and risky,  and also that simple. 

I see no other way to stop this,  and stop it we must.  Putin’s war damages us all economically and politically,  and it is utterly catastrophic for Ukraine,  besides threatening nuclear destruction for us all. 

Do that ultimatum,  and I think you will see Putin stand down and withdraw from Ukraine,  rather than risk his personal destruction in a war that he knows he cannot win (nobody wins a nuclear war).  Withdrawal is then his only path to staying in power in Russia.  

Although,  his own people might then have something to say about that,  and good riddance,  too!  A Russia without Putin could be a good friend.

Otherwise,  Putin will continue destroying Ukraine and its people as if they were vermin,  his revenge for their leaving Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union.  That ugly description of deliberate genocide is precisely the real pattern of his Ukraine war so far!  Most of our diplomats and politicians won’t tell you that ugly little truth,  but I just did!  I’m old enough to recognize it when I see it.

And the longer this evil goes on,  the more likely this war will get out of control,  as Putin gets ever more desperate to avoid the humiliating defeats he has been suffering on the Ukrainian battlefield.  The more desperate he gets,  the more likely he will use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukrainian cities.

He will use them for his personal revenge,  they cannot conquer what his armies failed to conquer.  And yet we all know that event could well start the “big one”. 

Time is not on our side. 

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Update 12-8-2022:  Recent news reports indicate that Ukraine has found a way to strike military targets and support infrastructure hundreds of miles inside Russia.  They found a way to do this despite the fact that the US and NATO have not supplied strike weapons of sufficient range for that purpose.  Ukraine has been the west's proxy opposing Putin,  and deserves better:  it is past time to supply the strike weapons to bring Putin's war home in Russia.  The high risk of nuclear war is already there,  Putin has been rattling that saber for months.  I don't really see how more forcefully opposing him changes that risk,  which will not go away until Putin is dead and gone.