Update 7-6-2023: an edited version of this appeared as a board-of-contributors column in the Thursday 7-6-2023 Waco "Tribune-Herald".
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It seems the long-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive
has begun. This thing is supported by
vast quantities of weapons from the US and multiple other western nations. However,
the supporting air cover is still lacking, so it is a grindingly-slow battle of
attrition on the ground.
The “wild card” so far has been the failed armed rebellion
in Russia, by the Wagner Group
mercenaries, who have been the most
battle-worthy troops Russia has fielded so far in Ukraine. The real Russian military supplies their
heavy weapons and vehicles, though. What effect that rebellion and its outcome may
have on the counter-offensive, is still
uncertain.
The Ukrainians are our proxy army against Putin’s Russian
troops and mercenaries, who invaded as
the next escalation beyond their previous relatively-unopposed misbehaviors
(annexing Crimea, fomenting uprisings in
the east). Do not expect fast
results: this entire thing is going to
be a knock-down/drag-out army-against-army thing, with high casualties on both sides, almost no matter what else happens.
Evidence is mounting that Putin’s Russians destroyed that
dam in the Kherson region, with
disastrous effects, but also halting the
counter-offensive in that region. The
Russians had the means, and the
motivation, to do this, and they had control of the dam when it
actually failed. If it quacks like a
duck…
They claim the Ukrainians did it, but one would be unwise in the extreme to
accept that claim! A common modus
operandi with Putin’s Russia is to do something atrocious, then claim the other side did it instead, as loudly as they can, to divert blame from themselves. We’ve seen it before, and not just with Putin’s Russia. It’s right out of the playbook that all
dictators have used for centuries.
Putin has also been making threats to use nuclear weapons
for almost a year now, and has recently
started moving nuclear weapons into neighboring Belarus, a Putin ally adjacent to Ukraine. As the Ukrainians begin to push the Russians
out, I think Putin might actually use
nuclear weapons on Ukraine for revenge.
He’s done just about every other atrocious war crime that there is to
do. It fits his pattern.
Regardless, this war
must go to the correct completion: only
a Ukrainian victory can be the outcome here!
We have to supply the weapons necessary to bring this about, or otherwise Putin will continue invading
other breakaway nations that were formerly part of the Soviet empire (and some
of them are members of NATO now,
triggering an all-NATO response that starts WW3 in Europe). As with Hitler, you cannot appease a dictator, or negotiate limited behaviors. Only raw naked force in sufficient quantities
is effective to stop them. We’ve seen
that before, too!
Our supplying the Ukrainians sufficient means to win is what
Putin fears the most, other than direct
war with all of NATO! That is why his
spy agencies and hacker groups have been spreading propaganda lies on social
media, and among far-right “news”
outlets, trying to convince enough
people in the US and other western nations to oppose supporting Ukraine, for any of a number of bogus “reasons”.
It is also why they meddled in the 2016 US election, trying to help Trump get elected. They knew Trump would favor Putin over our
NATO allies, and he did, starting in Helsinki. We all saw it on live TV. And to my way of thinking, that behavior was arguably treason of the “aid
and comfort to the enemy” type.
Our press have repeatedly noted the existence of a
“Pro-Putin wing” of the GOP that wants to end support for Ukraine. The right-wing social media and “news”
outlets are infested with both conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda, and that’s all those folks ever hear, so they believe it (repeated lies becoming “true”
is another item right out of the dictator’s playbook). So, I
just told you why the Putin wing of the GOP exists. And I have been describing to you why it is deadly
wrong.
Do not be deceived by any of this! Ukraine must win to contain future
Russian invasions, and we must fully
support them to make that outcome fully happen.
Otherwise, this degenerates into
general war, sooner or later (that unopposed
escalating misbehavior is exactly how WW2 started in Europe).
And if Putin starts succeeding in Europe, Xi in China will see the western countries as
too weak to stop him, and so he will immediately
invade Taiwan. That starts WW3 in the
Pacific, exactly the same way Japan
started WW2 in the Pacific with the Pearl Harbor raid.
Only this time around, everybody involved already has nuclear weapons! You have been warned!
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Update 7-12-2023: Reports say Zelenskyy is upset because NATO
could not offer Ukraine a clearer path to membership. I can understand that. Ukraine is NATO’s proxy war-fighter against
ever-enhancing Russian aggression. This
role has already laid much of Ukraine in ruins.
NATO exists to counter Russian (and similar)
aggression. Simple as that. I think it is past time NATO did more in this
war to push Russia back. It may be time
to immediately make Ukraine a member,
and send in the NATO armies per Article 5. All the stuff tried up to now is short of
that response, and it really isn’t
working all that well. If at all.
Putin’s Russia has demonstrably moved from threats and saber-rattling
to actual invasions (with associated atrocities and war crimes). This is exactly the same as the
behavior pattern of Hitler’s Nazi Germany in the mid-to-late 1930’s. Unless stopped, Russia will continue escalating its egregious
behavior into general war, just like
Nazi Germany did, in the late 1930’s.
Either learn from history,
or else repeat it. The repeat is
not identical: this time all the participants
have nuclear weapons.
Diplomacy and economic sanctions are never going to stop
Putin’s Russia. Only large amounts
of raw naked force will! This has escalated
to the point that one small proxy is not going to be able to do the job that
has to be done. It has become painfully
obvious that NATO must take direct action,
while Putin still fears direct war with NATO.
Sooner than you might suspect, Putin will no longer fear that! His pattern of behavior is identical to that
of Hitler, who by 1939 no longer feared war with the western allies.
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