Showing posts with label aerothermo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label aerothermo. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Quick First-Cut at Orion Entries

I cannot model skip trajectories or trajectories that change angle during entry.  I can only model straight-in entries at constant angle below local horizontal.  I am using the old H. Julian Allen scale height entry model (ref. 1),  updated to include plasma radiation heating (ref. 3). 

Sources on-line differ in the exact numbers given for most vehicles,  Apollo and Orion included.   I did the best I could,  with what I could find.  Figure 1 was a convenient comparison.  Because the shapes are similar,  I presumed the same Rn/D ratio,  and the same blockage-area-basis hypersonic drag coefficient CD (ref. 4).  Assuming the load of samples could be heavier,  I increased the mass a bit to increase the ballistic coefficient β slightly. 

Figure 1 – Source Data for Entry Models of Apollo and Orion

I simply presumed speed at entry interface of 10.95 km/s returning from the moon.  Entry angles were 2.0 degrees (Figure 2),  1.5 degrees (Figure 3),  1.0 degrees (Figure 4),  and 0.7 degrees (Figure 5).  Entry interface altitude was 140 km,  per the Justus & Braun scale height model of Earth’s “typical” atmosphere (ref. 2).  (Apollo modeled at 2 degrees.)

Figure 2 – Estimate for Orion at 2.0 Degrees Below Local Horizontal

Figure 3 – Estimate for Orion at 1.5 Degrees Below Local Horizontal

Figure 4 – Estimate for Orion at 1.0 Degrees Below Local Horizontal

Figure 5 – Estimate for Orion at 0.7 Degrees Below Local Horizontal

I accumulated these annotated data from the figures,  figured some heat shield pressures with them,  and cross-plotted the results as a function of the constant average entry angle.  Peak deceleration gees vs entry angle is plotted in Figure 6

Peak decelerating force is simply entry mass times peak gees times the standard acceleration of gravity at Earth.   Average pressure on the heat shield is that decelerating force divided by the capsule blockage area.  The peak pressure at the stagnation point is about 4/3 of the average pressure.  This peak pressure estimate is plotted in Figure 7,  along with a reported limiting pressure for the kind of Avcoat used on Apollo. 

The entry spreadsheet model figures both convective and plasma radiation heating rates per unit area at stagnation,  and it totals them,  for the peak stagnation total heating.  These total heating values are plotted in Figure 8,  along with one reported max heating limit value,  for the kind of Avcoat ablative heat shield that was used on Apollo. 

That Apollo material was hand-gunned into a reinforcing fiberglass hex already bonded to the capsule exterior.  So,  too,  was the heat shield used on the original Orion flight test (EFT-1).  The version of Avcoat used on the Orion for both Artemis-1 and Artemis-2,  was bonded tiles machined from blocks of cast Avcoat,  without any reinforcing hex.

Figure 6 – Peak Deceleration Gees Vs Constant Entry Angle (Apollo 10-11 near 2)

Figure 7 – Peak Pressure on Heat Shield Vs. Constant Entry Angle (Apollo ~ 0.56 near 2)

Figure 8 – Peak Stagnation Heating Vs. Constant Entry Angle (Apollo ~ 380 near 2)

Orion flies entry at some modest angle of attack,  to generate  lift force perpendicular to the oncoming wind.  This is for fine trajectory shaping and control,  accomplished by rolling the capsule to point the lift vector in the desired direction.  This has been done since Gemini in the mid-1960’s.  It was done with Apollo.

This shifts the stagnation point on the heat shield away from center,  toward the rim on one side,  which reduces the angle seen between the wall and the separated flow boundary and plasma sheath coming off the rim of the heat shield.  That can lead to attached flow with higher “scrubbing action” and heating rate,  on a swatch of the capsule lateral wall,  on that side.  The crew’s windows must be on the other side,  where such extra heating cannot occur because of the larger separation angle forcing local separation. 

One cannot just rescale the total stagnation heating to different locations around the capsule,  because convection and radiation rescale differently. 

For regions away from stagnation but with attached flow,  my ballpark estimate for convection is stagnation/3,  and my ballpark estimate for the separated wake region is stagnation/10. 

For regions away from stagnation but with attached flow,  my ballpark estimate for plasma radiation is stagnation (because the plasma sheath is still quite nearby),  and my ballpark estimate for separated wakes is stagnation/3 (because the plasma sheath is more remote).  Some have claimed that radiation heating has proven higher than initially expected,  in those separated wake zones.  

I roughed out the numbers from the annotated data in the spreadsheet plots,  and plotted them vs entry angle in Figure 9.  I then depicted them around the capsule in Figure 10.  Bear in mind that these illustrations are not to scale,  and the angle of attack (AOA) is shown somewhat exaggerated. 

It should be quite clear that lateral capsule surfaces with attached flow will need more heat shield thickness than regions that always stay separated.  Heating in regions with attached flow is really not very far below that at stagnation,  since the radiation heating is still quite near stagnation values.

Figure 9 --  Estimated Heating Rates for Stagnation,  Attached, and Separated Flow

Figure 10 – Rough Ballpark Heating Distributions Around the Capsule

We cannot make conclusions about the adequacy of the Artemis-2 heat shield relative to the damages seen on the Artemis-1 heat shield,  from data like this!  That will take good photographs of both capsules side-by-side.  Such have not yet been released as of this writing.  But one place to look,  besides the main base heat shield,  is very clearly the lateral side away from the windows,  where attached flow is likely to occur while flying entry at angle of attack.  Too little thickness there risks a burn-through,  at one or another level. 

I cannot model the difference between the “skip trajectory” of Artemis-1,  and the “non-skip” or “reduced-skip” used by Artemis-2,  except to say that the “non-skip” trajectory is similar to steeper angles below horizontal,  as modeled here.  The heating numbers are higher,  the steeper the angle.  And that is as true for attached flow on a lateral sideas it is on the main base heat shield

I did hear it claimed during the televised entry coverage that the crew of Artemis-2 experienced something like only 4 or 5 peak gees during entry.  That is unlike the 10-11 gees experienced by Apollo crews returning from the moon.  So,  it is likely that the “best” model among those shown here,  for the Artemis-2 entry,  would lie somewhere near my constant 1 degree model.   That corresponds to heating rates well below that of Apollo,  suggesting in turn that the max heating rate limit for the unreinforced Avcoat is below that of Apollo’s.

References as indicated above:

#1.  H. J. Allen and A. J. Eggers,  “A Study of the Motion and Aerodynamic Heating of Ballistic Missiles Entering the Earth’s Atmosphere at High Supersonic Speeds”,  NACA Technical Report 1381,  44th Annual Report of the NACA 1958,  Washington D.C. 1959. (unclassified) – this has the scale height atmosphere model and the relationship between altitude and velocity,  plus the convective stagnation heating correlation.

#2.  C. G. Justus and R. D. Braun,  “Atmospheric Environments for Entry,  Descent,  and Landing”,  MSFC-198,  June,  2007.  – this has the same Allen and Eggers entry model,  and scale height atmosphere model as Allen and Eggers,  but goes beyond just Earth.  Atmospheres for Mars,  Titan,  and Venus were obtained from here.

#3.  SAE,  “Aerospace Applied Thermodynamics Manual”,  1969.  (hardbound) – this had a simple plasma radiation heating model that was modified and added to the spreadsheet embodying the Allen and Eggers technique.

#4.  Sighard Hoerner,  “Fluid Dynamic Drag”,  self-published by the author,  1965.  – drag data for many shapes into the low hypersonic range are in this reference.

Note that the spreadsheet used for this study was described in an earlier posting to this site: “Entry By Hand”, 1 May 2026.  A related study comparing probes at both Earth and Mars entry conditions,  plus Apollo at Earth,  was posted as “Entry Study”,  1 June 2026. 

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Search code DDMMYYYY format    01072026

Search keywords      aerothermo,  space program

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Monday, June 1, 2026

Entry Study: Earth vs Mars (They Really Are Different)

I used Apollo data located from various on-line sources to determine an effective density ρ,  a “nose radius” value Rn ,  and a ballistic coefficient β for the Apollo capsule at its entry to Earth’s atmosphere.  This involved using data from Hoerner (ref. 1) and Miele (ref. 2) for the hypersonic drag coefficient CD of the capsule,  based on blockage area A at zero angle of attack.  My result was very close indeed to the ballistic coefficient reported from other on-line sources,  as indicated in Figure 1 below (all figures are at the end of this document).  

I chose a diameter of 1 m and a higher density (no human occupation spaces needed) to estimate a mass,  blockage area A,  and ballistic coefficient for a probe design similar to the earlier smaller landers sent to Mars since Viking.  I used a CD value found on-line for that “typical” Mars heat shield shape,  that being a cone 20 degrees off flat,   with a small nose radius to blunt the otherwise sharp conical shape.  This is also shown in Figure 1 below,  and results in a ballistic coefficient very similar indeed to those reported on-line for those smaller landers.

For this study,  I used the same mass and afterbody aeroshell shape,  but substituted an Earth-type blunt heat shield for the Mars-type slightly-blunted conical shape.  That gave me two different ballistic coefficients and Rn values to use for such a probe-like entry vehicle,  at otherwise the very same size.  One is a slightly-blunted conical “Mars type” heat shield,  the other a very-blunt-indeed “Earth type” heat shield.  All of this is summarized in Figure 1 below

What I did with these two slightly-different designs is run both of them for entries at both Mars and Earth,  using a spreadsheet based on references 3,  4,  and 5

For Mars,  I presumed direct entry and landing,  typical of many landers sent there,  but off a faster transfer than min-energy Hohmann transfer.  About the fastest might be something similar to a 2-year period abort orbit at average planetary distances from the sun,  resulting in a speed at entry interface near 7.4 km/s.  I simply assumed a nominal entry interface angle below local horizontal of 2 degrees. 

For Earth,  I presumed entry from low circular Earth orbit (LEO),  which would result in a sped at entry interface pretty near 7.9 km/s.  Again,  I simply presumed a nominal entry interface angle below local horizontal of 2 degrees.  This entry speed and the Mars entry speed are not the same,  but they are fairly comparable,  in the sense that heat shields which work for entry from LEO should also work for direct entry at Mars.

I re-ran only the Earth heat shield model at Earth for a higher entry speed of 11 km/s,  to model the effects of coming back from the moon (or something comparable),  instead of just from circular LEO.  There was no point to running the Mars heat shield model that fast,  as it already had higher convective heating.  This could extend to entries off of extended elliptical orbits about the Earth. 

Figures 3 and 4 below show the spreadsheet and plotted results for the probe with a Mars-type heat shield,  entering direct at Mars.  Figures 5 and 6 below show the spreadsheet and plotted results for a probe with an Earth-type heat shield,  entering direct at Mars.  Figures 7 and 8 below show the spreadsheet and plotted results for the probe with a Mars-type heat shield,  entering from LEO at Earth.  Figures 9 and 10 below show the spreadsheet and plotted results for a probe with an Earth-type heat shield,  entering from LEO at Earth.  Figures 11 and 12 below show the spreadsheet and plotted results for a probe with an Earth-type heat shield,  entering from near escape at Earth. 

I already had data for Apollo returning from LEO and from the moon,  showing essentially the effect of ballistic coefficient β upon what is otherwise the same proportion of nose radius Rn to heat shield diameter D,  and speed at interface.  That compares with the probe data with an Earth-type heat shield entering near escape.  The Apollo data from the moon are given as Figures 13 and 14 below,  and the Apollo data from LEO are Figures 15 and 16 below.   

I did accumulate and cross plot some results,  given in Figure 17 below.  Top left is end-of-hypersonics altitude plotted versus speed at entry interface.  This is annotated to indicate which vehicle,  its ballistic coefficient,  and which mission (Earth or Mars).  Top right is peak total stagnation heating rate versus the speed at the peak heating point.  This is annotated to show which vehicle,  which mission,  and the percentage split in peak heating rate convective – radiative.  Lower left is estimated peak stagnation pressure on the heat shield versus speed at the peak deceleration gees point.  It is annotated to indicate vehicle and mission.

Only two of these show clear differences between entries at Mars versus entries at Earth.  The altitude at end-of-hypersonics is distinctly lower at Mars,  traceable directly to the thin atmosphere.  So is the estimated stagnation pressure on the heat shield,  same cause.  Atmospheric densities on Mars are comparable to those on Earth at altitudes very much lower than at Earth.

There is a ballistic coefficient effect:  higher ballistic coefficient penetrates further along the slant path before slowing down,  which results on a lower altitude at end of hypersonics.  This effect is actually larger at Earth than at Mars,  surprisingly enough.

Bear in mind that this stuff is somewhere around 5% accurate,  maybe a little worse here because the entry speeds are slightly different for the probes of this study and Apollo.  Do not read very precise trend evaluations from it!  But the sense of these trends is quite real!

Figure 1 – Where the Data Came From,  and How They Were Used

Figure 2 – Nominal Entry Conditions,  As Used In This Study

Figure 3 – Spreadsheet Data for a Probe with a Mars Heat Shield,  at Mars

Figure 4 – Plotted Results for a Probe with a Mars Heat Shield,  at Mars

Figure 5 -- Spreadsheet Data for a Probe with an Earth Heat Shield,  at Mars

Figure 6 -- Plotted Results for a Probe with an Earth Heat Shield,  at Mars

Figure 7 -- Spreadsheet Data for a Probe with a Mars Heat Shield,  at Earth

Figure 8 -- Plotted Results for a Probe with a Mars Heat Shield,  at Earth

Figure 9 -- Spreadsheet Data for a Probe with an Earth Heat Shield,  at Earth

Figure 10 -- Plotted Results for a Probe with an Earth Heat Shield,  at Earth

Figure 11 – Probe with Earth-type Heat Shield,  Near Escape Speed at Earth, Spreadsheet

Figure 12 – Probe with Earth-Type Heat Shield, Near Escape Speed at Earth, Plots

Figure 13 – Apollo Lunar Return Spreadsheet (compare to probe/Earth type/near escape)

Figure 14 – Apollo Lunar Return Plotted Results (compare to probe/Earth type/near escape)

Figure 15 – Apollo LEO Return Spreadsheet (compare to probe/blunt/LEO)

Figure 16 – Apollo LEO Return Plotted Results (compare to probe/blunt/LEO)

Figure 17 – Results Compared

References

#1. Angelo Miele,  “Flight Mechanics Vol. 1 Theory of Flight Paths”,  Addison-Wesley,  1962.

#2. Sighard Hoerner,  “Fluid Dynamic Drag”,  self-published,  1965.

#3.  H. J. Allen and A. J. Eggers,  “A Study of the Motion and Aerodynamic Heating of Ballistic Missiles Entering the Earth’s Atmosphere at High Supersonic Speeds”,  NACA Technical Report 1381,  44th Annual Report of the NACA 1958,  Washington D.C. 1959. (unclassified)

#4.  C. G. Justus and R. D. Braun,  “Atmospheric Environments for Entry,  Descent,  and Landing”,  MSFC-198,  June,  2007. 

#5.  SAE “Aerospace Applied Thermodynamics Manual”,  1969. 

Note that this study used the methods of references 3, 4, and 5 in a spreadsheet described in detail in another posting on this site:  “Entry By Hand”,  1 May 2026.  

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Search code DDMMYYYY format      01062026

Search keywords             aerothermo, space program

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Friday, May 1, 2026

“Entry By Hand”

Why Know This Stuff?

(1        (1)    It provides a more efficient way to expend limited resources (see Figure 1).

(2) It is integral to brainstorming,  raising probability of success with multiple ideas.

(3) No organization can afford to do real design work on all candidates!

(4) However,  it requires “real” pencil-&-paper engineering training.

    (5) Those so-capable can spot bad results coming from computer codes! 

Figure 1 – Knowing “Pencil-and-Paper Engineering” Is the Efficient Way to Use Resources

The example here is making entry estimates that include both dynamics and heating.  The basic by-hand entry model is old,  simple stuff used for warhead entry work back in the early 1950’s.  It is usually attributed to H. Julian Allen,  although both he and A. J. Eggers published it in a NACA report,  once this method was declassified.  See Figure 2.

This kind of analysis is now best done in spreadsheet, for fast changes,  that automate any iterative explorations.  This analysis only handles straight-in entries:  no skips, no multi-pass trajectories.  It is fundamentally 2-D Cartesian,  so one must “wrap” the range-related results around the central body.

Figure 2 – How the Old Entry Model of Allen and Eggers Actually Works

 The inputs divide into 3 groups:  (1) the atmosphere scale-height density model and entry interface altitude,  (2) the entry speed and direction information,  and (3) the vehicle model.  That last includes both ballistic coefficient as well as an effective “nose” radius for heating estimates.  Ballistic coefficient requires mass and dimensional information,  plus an estimate of the very-nearly-constant hypersonic drag coefficient. 

Where to obtain such information for the inputs is also summarized in Figure 3.  The Justus and Braun reference has atmosphere models for using this kind of analysis at a variety of places around the solar system.  The author’s spreadsheet file has separate worksheets corresponding to the scale height models and entry interface altitudes for Earth,  Mars,  Titan,  and Venus,  all from Justus and Braun.   

The author also has another spreadsheet file that does the classical 2-body orbital mechanics of elliptical orbits.  This is the best kind of source for speed at entry interface.  Technically,  evaluating slopes at the entry interface location will get you the entry angle below local horizontal,  but a default guess of 2 degrees is rather representative for spacecraft items.  Some warheads come in steeper,  but if so,  usually slower,  too,  because they are fundamentally suborbital. 

Masses and dimensions for many craft can be found on the internet.  The author has found the old Hoerner “drag bible” reference a good source for drag coefficients. 

Figure 3 – Typical Sources of Data

Ballistic coefficient β = M/(CD A) is a measure of how well the vehicle penetrates through the air while decelerating.  If the hypersonic CD is a constant,  then the hypersonic beta will be constant,  which is what the Allen and Eggers model assumes.  That assumption is at least approximately true all the way down to about local Mach 3 for blunt shapes. 

The dimensions and shape enable calculating a volume corresponding to the outer shape envelope.  Dividing mass-at-entry by that volume gets you an “effective density” for the craft.  Not all craft will have the same “effective density”:  manned craft will compute lower because of the interior volumes required to be open space in which the astronauts can live.  Unmanned craft will typically have higher “effective densities”,  because things can be packed as tightly as possible. 

As indicated in Figure 4,  ballistic coefficient β ~ eff. density * dimension3/dimension2  = eff. density * dimension,  for any given shape,  since volume is proportional to dimension cubed,  while area is proportional to dimension squared.  That means for the same shape and density,  ballistic coefficient scales as the cube root of mass at entry.  The same shape corresponds to the same blockage area-basis drag coefficient.

Figure 4 – How Ballistic Coefficient Varies With Mass,  Density,  and Dimensions

The author’s entry analysis spreadsheet is depicted in Figure 5 below.  This particular one is for the Earth atmosphere model,  for an Apollo coming back from the moon.

Highlighted in yellow near the top of the worksheet are 3 groups of inputs.  Of these,  the user need only worry about 2!  The leftmost group has the atmosphere model,  and there is one worksheet for each different atmosphere model.  Currently,  there are worksheets for Earth,  Mars,  Titan,  and Venus.  The atmosphere model has ρ0 and hscale for the exponential density variation model,  plus the entry interface altitude.  It also has the upper and lower values of altitude,  between which the scale height density approximation best matches reality.  There is an input with the name of the world the worksheet models.

The center yellow input group is the user-input entry conditions:  speed at entry interface Vatm,  and angle below horizontal Ɵ.  There is an input denoting what the mission is about. 

The vehicle model is the rightmost yellow input group near the top.  It has values for ballistic coefficient β and the effective nose radius Rn.  There is also an input for the name of the vehicle. 

The heating model constants are also given for convection and for plasma radiation.  These are not yellow,  and are not user inputs.  They are as meant,  for each worksheet.

The main calculation block starts in the left column with a list of altitudes highlighted green,  that starts at its top with the input entry interface altitude.  The user may freely adjust that list to get points denser in distribution where speeds,  gees,  and heating rates are changing rapidly.  It ends with a yellow highlighted user input altitude to find exactly the altitude that corresponds to the intended end-of entry speed.  Mach 3 on Earth is typically right at 1.0 km/s.  Mach 3 on Mars is typically close to 0.7 km/s. 

Figure 5 – Appearance of the Author’s Entry Spreadsheet Worksheets 

Typical spreadsheet results  are shown in Figure 6 just below.  These plots are generated automatically by the worksheet.  The user can see where the points need to be denser when adjusting his altitudes list.  Then when done,  he can copy these plots and paste them into a “Paint 2-D” png file.  It is recommended to read values out of the worksheet calculation block,  and annotate the resulting plots with them,  once they are in the png file.  

Figure 6 – Image of Png File Containing Annotated Worksheet Plots

The convective and radiative heating models currently embodied in the spreadsheet file’s worksheets are illustrated in Figure 7 just below.  The original Allen and Eggers model had only the convective stagnation heating model.  The author found one for plasma sheath stagnation radiation heating in the SAE Aerospace Applied Thermodynamics Manual (1969),  modified it slightly,  and incorporated it into the spreadsheet.           

The figure also has the old entry engineer’s “rule of thumb” that says the effective temperature in degrees K,  of the plasma sheath near stagnation,  is numerically equal to vehicle speed in meters/second.  This is rather crude,  being only about 10% accurate,  but it is “in the ballpark”. 

The figure also includes the author’s wild guesses for how to rescale the stagnation heating rates to other locations on the vehicle.   There are regions of attached flow that feature severe flow “scrubbing” of the surface,  and separated-wake locations that do not.  The plasma radiation heating rescales differently than the convective heating.  

For regions where flow is still attached,  the plasma sheath is still crudely as close to the surface as it is at stagnation,  implying radiation heating rates still very near stagnation,  unlike convective.  In the wake,  the plasma sheath is remote,  but still “shining upon” the surfaces,  so the author does not rescale it down as far as he does the convective. 

Figure 7 – Stagnation Heating Models Currently In the Spreadsheet,  Plus Scaling Elsewhere

Complicating Factors:  tumble-home angle vs angle-of attack for capsule shapes             

Most capsule shapes have what is called a “tumble-home angle” of the lateral walls inward.  Flow usually accelerates sub-sonically,  radially outward behind the bow shock,  to a sonic line that is usually at the very rim of the heat shield.  Flow usually separates at the rim,  just downstream of the sonic line,   leaving the lateral walls in separated wake flow,  if the capsule flies straight with no angle of attack. 

A modest angle of attack to create a lateral lift force has been used for a long time (since Gemini in the 1960’s) to better “fine-tune” the entry trajectory.  One just rolls the capsule to point that lift vector in the desired direction.   This has the effect of reducing the angle between the lateral wall and the separated flow on the side where the stagnation point is closest to the rim.  On Apollo,  this had the effect of flow staying attached to the lateral wall (with higher heating) in a localized swatch of surface,  on that side.  This sort of thing is depicted in Figure 8 just below

The simple entry model does not handle such subtle differences,  it just pulls the capsule straight in,  along a straight line in Cartesian coordinates,  and it only estimates stagnation heating.  The user has to allow for this possibility,  when rescaling stagnation heating rates to lateral walls where flow might actually be attached!

Figure 8 – Effects of Modest Angle of Attack Upon Heating for Capsule-Type Shapes

As an example of this angle of attack effect,  consider the data the model predicts for Apollo coming back from the moon,  in Figure 6 above.  Stagnation convective was 144 W/cm2,  and radiative was 236 W/cm2,  for a stagnation total of 380 W/cm2.  Those numbers scale for attached flow locations to 48 W/cm2 convective,  and 236 W/cm2 radiative,  for a total of 284 W/cm2.  For separated wake zones,  those same numbers rescale to 14.4 W/cm2 convective,  78.7 W/cm2 radiative,  for a total of only 93.1 W/cm2

Note that the rim of the heat shield would definitely be a region of attached flow,  at total heating 284 W/cm2,  some 74.7% of that at the stagnation point!  At some angle of attack causing flow attachment for a swatch along only one lateral side,  the same high heating at something like 284 W/cm2 would exist!  The rest of the lateral sides are all in separated flow,  at a heating rate only in the neighborhood of 93.1 W/cm2,  only 24.5% of stagnation.

The lesson is quite clear:  lateral sides that might see attached flow at angle of attack,  require thicker heat protection than those that do not!  That increased thickness requirement is at least similar to the thickness near the rim of the base heat shield!

Max pressure on the heat shield is important for choice of an adequate material,  as some can be crushed.  You have a mass at entry,  and a blockage area,  in order to set up your calculation of ballistic coefficient β.  The entry model spreadsheet gives you an estimate of the max deceleration gees.  Mass * max gees * gc  equals the decelerating force F acting upon the vehicle.  Max deceleration occurs high enough up,  that backside pressures on the aft surfaces are essentially zero.  So,  the average pressure on the heat shield is simply that deceleration F divided by the blockage area.  The sonic pressure near the rim is roughly half the stagnation pressure,  so the average pressure is roughly ¾ of the stagnation pressure.  Reversing that leads to Pstagn = (4/3)*Pavg,  as indicated in Figure 9.  

Figure 9 – Approximate Stagnation Pressure Estimate

Heat shield materials have definite operating limits.  Ablatives are usually rated to max heating rates per unit area,  and max pressure exposure,  as shown in Figure 10 just below.   Transpiration surfaces would likely be similarly rated,  although that technology has yet to fly (but it might soon).  Refractories are usually rated somewhat differently,  being rated directly in terms of a max service temperature,  although there is still a max pressure rating.  The user should be aware that these max rating values recommended for ablatives will vary from source to source. 

Looking at the Apollo lunar return example above,  the exposures and the ratings for its Avcoat 5026-39 heat shield compare as follows:

Item…………….exposure…….rating…….remarks

Q/A, W/cm2…..380…………….600……….OK

Max P, atm……0.56……………0.50………barely not OK,  but it worked

Figure 10 – Max Rating Values for a Few Ablatives (Values in Other Sources Vary)

The variation in ratings from source to source can be seen comparing Avcoat 5026 in Figure 10 above to “Avcoat” for Apollo and Orion in Figure 11 just below.  Note particularly the manufacturing difference between Avcoat for Orion EFT-1 versus Orion as flown in Artemis.  Artemis leaves out the reinforcing hex,  to get bonded tiles instead of hand-gunned honeycomb cells.  Most such sources leave out sufficient clarifying details!

Figure 11 – Many Ablative Applications and Rating Data (from a different source)

Ratings for some refractory ceramic materials are shown in Figure 12.  The first 3 in the figure were used on the space shuttle.  The windward tiles were colored black to increase their thermal emissivity,  where heating was larger.  The leeward tiles were white where high emissivity was not required,  but solar reflectivity was required,  for passive thermal balance control. 

These were very low density aluminosilicate materials,  whose max service temperatures were not limited by melting,  but by a solid phase change causing shrinkage and fatal embrittlement.  That last is exactly why Coleman gasoline lantern mantles were so fragile!

The ceramic blankets were more sharply temperature limited,  and were only used on leeside surfaces immersed in separated flow.

Tufroc is not a single material,  but two layers of different ceramic materials mechanically coupled together.  These are usually set up as two-part tiles bonded to the surfaces they protect.  The outer surface layer is a denser,  more thermally conductive ceramic that is rated to a higher temperature than aluminosilicates,  and also quite a bit stronger than the shuttle tile material.  The inner layer is somewhat similar to shuttle tile,  being low density,  not as strong,  and very low thermal conductivity.  It is rated to a bit-higher temperature.

Figure 12 – Some Data on Refractory Ceramic Materials

Exposed metals are possible,  but only if the heating rate is low enough to permit a survivable equilibrium temperature,  with a hot strength that is still acceptable.  This was done on Mercury and Gemini,  which returned only from low circular Earth orbit where the heating rates were far lower.  This could not be done with Apollo,  which returned from the moon at very near escape speed,  with very much higher heating rates.  It is being done again by SpaceX with its “Starship” leeside surfaces,  but only in separated flow zones,  and only from low circular Earth orbit speeds (at least so far).  See Figure 13 for materials data.

Figure 13 – Some Data on Exposed Metals as Refractory Candidates

For ablatives,  refractories (ceramics and metals),  and transpiration-cooled designs,  the heat balance concepts,  as simplified,  are shown in Figure 14 below.  These are couched in terms of heat flux format,  that being heat flow rate per unit of exposed surface area.  That matches the output data from the entry spreadsheet model. 

For the ablative scenario,  there is both ablation and re-radiation cooling available to establish equilibrium,  but no adequate way to determine how much of each!  For the refractory scenario,  there is only re-radiation cooling,  and an equilibrium temperature is easily determined iteratively.  For the transpiration scenario,  equilibrium surface temperature is constrained by coolant vaporization at an acceptable coolant pressure.  Thus,  an actual coolant flow rate is determined from that acceptable temperature.

Bear in mind that transpiration cooling has yet to actually fly in space.  It was supposed to be investigated with the old X-20 “Dyna-Soar”,  that was cancelled without ever flying.  However,  such a thing may well fly soon.  There is at least one “new space” competitor that wants to use it,  and it was seriously considered by SpaceX,  before they went with very slow-ablative tiles on their “Starship”. 

Those notions lead directly to the guidance for spreadsheet-based heat balances depicted in Figure 15 below.  These would likely be self-generated as custom spreadsheets.  This author has none to offer at this time.  The ablatives scenario must have some other constraint in order to set the point on the regression rate vs equilibrium temperature trend.  

Figure 14 – How the Heat Fluxes Balance for the 3 Scenarios

Figure 15 – Guidance Toward Setting Up Spreadsheet Heat Balances for the 3 Scenarios

Mars entry is definitely different from Earth entry,  as shown in Figure 16 just below.  These are the cross-plotted results from a study run with these tools.  The author “made-up” a small probe,  with either a conical or a blunt heat shield,  and ran it for free direct entries off an interplanetary trajectory at Mars,  plus low circular Earth orbit entries,  and entries at near escape speed.  These data were combined with results from an earlier Apollo entry study that included entry from low circular orbit and near-escape returning from the moon. 

The 2 left-side plots in the figure basically show the effect of the very thin Mars atmosphere upon end-of-hypersonics altitude,  and upon estimated stagnation pressure on the heat shield.  The surface density on Mars is numerically the same as density near 35 km altitude at Earth.  The plot of stagnation total heating vs speed at peak heating shows no reliably-discernable trend,  except that peak heating speed is higher if entry interface speed is higher.  The Mars data fall right in the middle of the Earth data,  all for comparable entry speed,  since direct entry speed at Mars is about the same as low Earth orbit entry speed.  

Figure 16 – Comparison Cross-Plots for Earth vs Mars Entries

Doing these kinds of entry studies using pencil-and-paper engineering,  assisted by modern spreadsheet software,  is actually easier than most people think.  But the engineering analyst who does this must really know what he/she is doing!  This is very heavy into high-speed compressible flow analysis,  and very high-speed heat transfer techniques! 

Plus,  in order to function,  the engineering analyst must know an awful lot about materials,  their properties,  and their limitations! 

But,  there is an undiscussed advantage if the engineering analyst can really do this pencil-and-paper engineering stuff!  He/she will have enough experience from running such numbers for many projects,  to spot bad results coming from someone else’s code.  Computers process bad inputs and bad models into bad results,  as easily as they process good inputs and good models into good results.  They all look the same,  at first glance!

References as indicated above:

#1.  H. J. Allen and A. J. Eggers,  “A Study of the Motion and Aerodynamic Heating of Ballistic Missiles Entering the Earth’s Atmosphere at High Supersonic Speeds”,  NACA Technical Report 1381,  44th Annual Report of the NACA 1958,  Washington D.C. 1959. (unclassified) – this has the scale height atmosphere model and the relationship between altitude and velocity,  plus the convective stagnation heating correlation.

#2.  C. G. Justus and R. D. Braun,  “Atmospheric Environments for Entry,  Descent,  and Landing”,  MSFC-198,  June,  2007.  – this has the same Allen and Eggers entry model,  and scale height atmosphere model as Allen and Eggers,  but goes beyond just Earth.  Atmospheres for Mars,  Titan,  and Venus were obtained from here.

#3.  SAE,  “Aerospace Applied Thermodynamics Manual”,  1969.  (hardbound) – this had a simple plasma radiation heating model that was modified and added to the spreadsheet embodying the Allen and Eggers technique.

#4.  Sighard Hoerner,  “Fluid Dynamic Drag”,  self-published by the author,  1965.  – drag data for many shapes into the low hypersonic range are in this reference.

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PS:  This article actually comprises a pretty good user’s manual for my current version of the entry spreadsheet.  This spreadsheet is available from the New Mars forums as a free download,  or you can contact me directly by email.  Watch this site for two follow-up articles done by using this spreadsheet-based analysis technique. 

One will be a comparative re-entry study done for typical Mars probe heat shield shapes and an Apollo capsule shape,  all with ablative heat shields,  done at both Earth and Mars.  It will show how Mars entry is different,  with some indications as to why.

The other will be a heating distribution study for an Orion capsule doing free-entry returns from the moon.  Such will be useful for understanding what effects showed up on the Artemis-1 heat shield versus the Artemis-2 heat shield,  and the original Orion EFT-1 test flight’s heat shield.

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Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Preliminary Evaluation of Artemis-2 Heat Shield

Not much credible information is yet available,  as only a handful of official NASA photos have been released.  There is one unofficial CBS news photo,  whose digitally-enhanced zoom-in,  fills-in some of the information gaps.  But I do my best with what there is!

Figure 1 depicts the expected re-entry flow and heating pattern for a lunar return by Orion,  which “flies” at angle-of-attack,  to generate a small lift force that is used to fine-tune the trajectory shape.  It does this by rolling about the wind vector,  to point the lift vector in the desired direction.  This was also done on Apollo,  and on the earlier Gemini missions.

Figure 1 – Expected Flow and Heating Pattern for an Orion Lunar Return

The Orion capsule has now flown 3 times as of this writing,  once before the Artemis program even existed!  All 3 were re-entries at near escape speed,  which is what a lunar return actually is!  That first test was called EFT-1,  launched using a Delta-IV rocket (now retired).  It had the heatshield fabricated from Avcoat,  hand-gunned into the cells of a fiberglass hex bonded to the capsule outer shell,  just like Apollo!  The other two Orion flights (so far to date) were launched with the SLS rocket,  and had cast and machined Avcoat tiles bonded to their outer shells,  unreinforced by any fiberglass hex!

Figure 2 below is a photo of what I believe to be the Orion flown on EFT-1.  I cannot vouch for the pedigree of this photo,  or that some of the char has not been deliberately removed for investigating the material beneath.  But the presence of the hex is clearly visible,  so this cannot be either the Artemis-1 or Artemis-2 Orion capsules!  If an Orion at all,  and I believe it is,  this has to be EFT-1! 

Note that a fair amount of ablation and erosion damage seems to be evident on the lateral side.  I cannot say for sure,  but this would appear to be the lateral side nearest the offset stagnation point,  where attached flow would feature heating comparable to that at the rim of the base heat shield.   The base heatshield itself is not visible in this view.

Figure 2 – Photo,  Pedigree Unknown,  of What is Thought to Be EFT-1

NASA changed the manufacture of the Orion capsule heat shield for Artemis,  retaining the Avcoat material,  but deleting the reinforcing hex,  to save time,  effort,  and money.  They built both the Artemis-1 and Artemis-2 heat shields this new way,  without waiting for the results of the uncrewed test flight that was Artemis-1 (and THAT was their fundamental mistake).  They were surprised by the unpredicted nature of the damage that Artemis-1 exhibited!  It shed both small and large chunks of char during re-entry,  leaving alarming craters in the heat shield!  Some of those are shown in Figure 3 below

This Artemis-1 flight was a skip re-entry with two heating episodes separated by a slight cooldown,  conducted at a very slightly shallower-than-normal angle,  compared to a straight-in re-entry.  Shallower reduces total heating a little,  but it does incur at least some risk of bouncing off the atmosphere like a skipped rock,  into an extended elliptical orbit,  whose period (of 5-10 days) exceeds the remaining crew life support duration! 

Flying the capsule at angle of attack is a way to control that skip effect.  Early in the re-entry,  you point the lift vector down,  to stop any skipping-off.  Late in the re-entry,  you point the lift vector up,  to keep the trajectory from “drooping” downward too soon.  

Figure 3 – The Official NASA Photo of the Artemis-1 Heat Shield,  After Recovery

After Artemis-1,  NASA spent nearly 2 years doing tests and calculations to “officially” convince itself that if they deleted the skip and came in slightly steeper (at higher heating),  that the alarming chunk-shedding would not occur!  This was based on the hypothesis that the pyrolysis gases produced during the second heating pulse could not percolate through the char layer easily enough,  and ended-up cracking it,  and blowing-off chunks of it,  with the obstructed gas pressure from beneath.

That hypothesis ignores the effects of fluid-scrubbing shear action in attached flow,  which would want to peel chunks off from between any cracks.  It also ignores any embrittlement and weakening of the charred material,  after cooling down some,  between the heating pulses.  Anyone who has ever dealt with the fragile mantles of a Coleman gasoline lantern,  would know exactly what embrittlement effect I am talking about,  and that it is quite real!

So,  NASA flew Artemis-2 crewed,  with the very same heat shield as Artemis-1,  just deleting the skip in favor of a slightly-steeper straight-in re-entry.  Their analyses said that would eliminate the chunk-shedding.  The real question is,  did that really work?

The few official photos released so far say that it did work.  However,  there is an unofficial photo that says “maybe not near as well as assumed”.  You judge for yourself. 

Figure 4 is an official photo taken during crew extraction from the capsule,  floating in the sea.  Bear in mind that you cannot see the capsule base heat shield at all in this view,  and you can only see the lateral side where the windows were located.  Those have to be away from the worst lateral heating,  to protect them from being destroyed by that heating.  

Figure 4 – Official NASA Photo of Artemis-2 During Crew Extraction

Figure 5 is an official NASA photo of mission commander Reid Wiseman pointing at some kind of an eroded crater in the lateral wall ablative insulation.  You can see the window behind his head,  and you can see there is no heavy charring (black) in this view.  This view is of the windows-side of the capsule,  where heating and its effects are greatly reduced by being in separated wake flow.  You can see nothing of the base heat shield at all,  or the more highly-heated opposite lateral side,  where flow was attached. 

Figure 5 – AI-Doctored Version of an Official NASA Photo of Mission Commander Reid Wiseman Pointing to Damage Spot

Figure 6 is an official NASA photo taken by a Navy diver,  of the base heat shield,  while the capsule was still in the water.   It looks rather pristine.  However,  you can see by the streaks that the stagnation point was just out of view,  top center left of photo.  The odd feature lower left is the mark or trace,  left on the heat shield from the flow about one of the tie-down pads. 

We see no craters from lost chunks of char in this view,  which supports the conclusion that NASA was right to delete the skip in the re-entry trajectory!  But we cannot see the region nearest the stagnation point,  where heating is higher,  and where fluid shear is higher.  That would be because the acceleration to sonic at the rim,  takes place over a much shorter distance.  That raises the surface shear forces that the heat shield material and its char layer “feel”. 

A suspicious person might say that only photos supporting NASA’s hypothesis have been released.  That is because we have not seen any photos of the offset stagnation region on the base heat shield,  or of the lateral wall on the side adjacent to that stagnation region (opposite the windows),  where heating is almost as high as on the base heat shield.  Know that eventuallyall the photos must be released,  in the report on their heat shield investigation.  That report must be publicly releasedBut it may be a year before we see it!

Figure 6 --  Official NASA Photo of Artemis-2 Heat Shield Taken by a Navy Diver

As I said above,  there is an unofficial photo now circulating,  that was taken by CBS News seconds before splashdown,  while the capsule was still hanging from its parachutes.  It was distant and somewhat blurry,  but it does show some sort of white mark near the heat shield rim. 

That white mark attracted a lot of attention,  and led to the digital enhancement of that photo,  and a digital zoom-in to examine that white mark more closely.  But that enhanced photo does indeed also show the near-stagnation region of the base heat shield,  and the lateral wall away from the windows,  where flow was attached,  and the heating much higher.  That original blurry CBS News photo is Figure 7 below,  and the zoomed-in enhancement is Figure 8 below

You cannot see very much in Figure 7,  but you can in Figure 8!  The white mark was left by the melting and destruction of one of the tie-down pads.  This is something NASA says was expected,  although it did not occur on Artemis-1,  as you can see in Figure 3 aboveIt does seem to have left an alarmingly-deep cavity eroded into the rim of the base heat shield!  Expected or not,  that cavity would appear to be of a depth comparable the thickness of the heat shield.  And I do find that alarming!

Figure 7 – Unofficial,  Blurry Photo Taken by CBS News Seconds Before Splashdown

What nobody has been talking about are the other things I see in Figure 8I have circled four places that I believe show where chunks of char were shed from the base heat shield.  These are smaller chunk-shed craters,  to be sure,  and scaling up from the limited view,  not anywhere near as numerous as those seen on Artemis-1!  Yet they are thereand the revised non-skip re-entry so very clearly did not entirely stop them from occurring!  Which simply says that something else was going on with that char chunk shedding,  besides pyrolysis gas percolation through the char! 

There’s one other circled spot,  and two arrows pointing to large locations,  on the base heat shield in Figure 8,   where I cannot tell what happened,  but I can see that some sort of damage is clearly there.  It will take better photos than this to evaluate those damages

What I see on the lateral side adjacent to the stagnation point are one unidentifiable small dark spot,  and two whitish bright spots of considerable size.  The two bright spots are clearly places where all the char was lost,  exposing bare metal to full heating!  And that metal looks distorted by that heating!  Very alarming indeed!

Those bright spots are not windows,  those are the bare metal of the outer capsule shell,  to which the Avcoat tiles were bonded!  Simple thermal insulation separates it from the inner metal shell,  which is the capsule crew cabin pressure vessel. 

Figure 8 – Digital Enhancement and Zoom-In of Unofficial CBS News Photo

There would seem to be four things going on here that affect the damages seennot just the one thing that NASA hypothesized.  They are:

#1. Pyrolysis gas percolating out against permeability resistance,  wanting to blow chunks off. (That is the NASA hypothesis.)

#2. Fluid surface shear forces wanting to peel chunks out from between cracks in the surface. 

#3. Char layer shrinking,  cracking,  and embrittlement upon cooldown,  between the heating pulses of a skip-type re-entry.  (Like the fragility of a gasoline lantern mantle.)

#4. The presence of the reinforcing hex actually ties the char layer tighter to the pyrolysis and virgin layers beneath,  and it also acts to limit the spread of cracks in the surface.

My conclusions about the rational things to do,   depend upon what response NASA takes to this Artemis-1 and -2 outcome:

#1. If NASA ever wants to resume flying skip-type re-entries,  then put the reinforcing hex back into the Avcoat!  PeriodThere actually is a way to do that,  without hand-gunning Avcoat into every hex cell like Apollo!

#2. Non-skip re-entries have higher peak heating.  The Avcoat tile thickness is insufficient at the attached-flow locations:  near the tie-down pads,  and on the lateral wall opposite the windows.  NASA must thicken it at those locations!

Avcoat tiles with reinforcing hex,  but without hand-gunning:

Avcoat is an epoxy-novolac polymer loaded with solids.  Those solids include some small amount of carbon fibers,  and a lot of tiny micro-balloons made of phenolic resin.  Higher micro-balloon content lowers density,  raises ablation rate,  and increases the porosity and permeability of the char layer (also decreasing its strength).  It also greatly increases the apparent uncured mix “viscosity”,  which is already extremely thixotropic (almost a solid). 

The Avcoat mixture is so thick,  that it is almost “crumbly” coming out of an air-powered caulking gun,  whose nozzle matches the size and shape of the hex cells.  The hex is a fiberglass cloth with a phenolic resin matrix.  The glass softens at a higher temperature (~ 900 F) than that at which the polymer starts to pyrolyze (~ 300 F),  which is why it is an effective char layer stiffener and retention aid.  The carbon fibers add a bit to those reinforcing effects.  Apollo and Orion EFT-1 used hex panels bonded to the outer shell,  into which cells the Avcoat was hand-gunned.  This was extremely labor-intensive!

For the Artemis-1 and Artemis-2 Orion capsules,  the Avcoat mixture was cast into blocks,  from which tiles were machined.  There was no reinforcing hex!  The bonds and gap fillers of those tiles are not in question herethose performed just fineThe lack of reinforcing hex is the question!

You can make tiles with hex in them,  but only if you can stop being bound by “either/or thinking”.  That would be either doing it the Apollo/Orion EFT-1 way,  or doing it the Artemis-1/-2 way.  However,  there is a third path!  Read on:

Put a chunk of the hex the size of the cast block you want to make,  into some tooling on the outlet of a plastics extrusion press.  Load your Avcoat mixture into the press,  and use that press to force it through all the cells in the hex,  all at once!  Remove the loaded-hex tooling from the press,  put the bottom and top on that tooling,  and cure that block of Avcoat that now contains the reinforcing hex!  Then,  machine your tiles from those blocks,  and bond them to the Orion outer shell,  the same way as in Artemis-1 and -2!  Tiles that are hex-reinforced,  but with NO hand-gunning!

I gave this idea to the NASA heat protection group in Houston well over a year ago,  as of this writing,  and again directly to the new NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman only a few weeks ago.  I was able to confirm (1) that the heat protection group got it,  and (2) that they thought I was right.  Nothing confirms that Isaacman ever saw my letter to him. 

But I never heard another word out of NASA about this alternative,  and NASA has not yet done anything like it.  So,  I must conclude:

Money and schedule clearly still outweigh crew’s lives for the decision-making NASA management levels.  And “not invented here” is still quite strong at NASA,  as well as its contractors.  Those two things are my real ongoing reservations about NASA!  And they have been,  ever since the first of two lost Space Shuttle crews!  Crews lost precisely because of those very same two management culture flaws!

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Closely-Related Postings:

About the Artemis-2 Mission” posted 31 March 2026

The updates to that article have these same photos in them,  just not as explicitly annotated as here.  And I have since added how the flow and heating patterns vary.  In near-escape Earth entry with a blunt heat shield,  plasma radiation heating is larger than convective heating,  and it decreases with distance from stagnation less rapidly.

Search code DDMMYYYY format      31032026

Search keywords         aerothermo,  launch,  radiation,  space program 

Ramjet Data Re:  Heat Shields” posted 1 March 2026

Shows how my old experiences with ablatives in solid rocket motors,  and especially ramjet combustors,  have strong overlap with the re-entry phenomena involved here.  Char retention by the layers below,  is a crucial key,  in both venues! 

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