Sunday, March 1, 2026

Ramjet Data Re: Heat Shields

The topic here is how experimental experiences, with ramjet ablative combustor liners,  relate to the unexpected and unpredicted entry heat shield problems seen on the Artemis-1 test flight.  There actually is some correspondence,  the overlap suggesting a “fix”.  What might actually be done to correct the heat shield problem is presented here.

The author is qualified to speak on this topic,  having spent 20 years in aerospace defense new product development work,  most of it in solid rockets and ramjet propulsion.  He is no narrow specialist,  as the next 20 years in teaching (at all levels),  in civil engineering,  and in aviation work demonstrates.   He is now long-retired,  but occasionally consults. 

The Problem                               

The Artemis-1 heat shield partially failed by unexpected and unpredicted cratering,  but did not have a burn-through.  It was constructed of Avcoat tiles bonded to the capsule structure.  Chunks of the charring heat shield spalled out,  creating alarmingly-deep craters in it.  The same Avcoat material was used as the Orion EFT-1 flight test heat shield,  and on the Apollo capsule years ago.  The difference with Artemis-1 was that the Avcoat of those earlier heat shields was hand-gunned into the numerous cells of a fiberglass-type hex attached directly to the capsule structure.  The change to bonded tiles was intended to greatly reduce the labor cost of the hand-gunning,  and also reduce its inherent variability.

The bonding of the tiles to the Artemis-1 capsule,  and the gaps between them,  are not in question here.  Those performed quite well.  Nor is the cost reduction in question,  it is quite real,  obtained by casting blocks of Avcoat that were final-machined to tile shapes. 

The only real difference is the question explored here:  those blocks of Avcoat had no reinforcing hex in them!

A Place to Look is Outside the Organization!                     

One needs a “fresh pair (or pairs) of eyes” to see past the thinking “ruts”!  The problem with that is that one may not really know the people who are from outside.  Therefore,  one tends to trust such outsiders less!  Another aspect of that is the “not invented here” prejudice!  One must strongly resist that!

Ramjet Ablatives Is a Related Experience

Unlike solid rockets,  ramjets have very long burn times.  And unlike rocket motor free volumes out near their case diameters,  ramjets have high fluid shear forces all along their combustor walls!  The ramjet has long proven to have the more challenging environment for ablative protection.  The reinforced-rubber insulations used in rocket cases are quite inadequate for ramjet combustors!

The reentry heat shield sees hotter local effective temperatures,  experiences lower surface pressures (because the atmosphere is so thin at entry peak heating altitudes),  and quite likely sees fluid shear forces along the heat shield surface that are on the same order as those of the ramjet combustor.  That last seems likely because both are subsonic (behind the bow shock for the capsule,  with higher sound speeds but lower densities). 

This author ran some experimental ablative candidates through short-burn,  full-scale tests in a combustor of the size for a ramjet replacement of the AIM-120 AMRAAM motor.  In the process of understanding the results,  he identified some 5 key issues to consider,  as are indicated by notes in red in Figure 1 below(All figures are at the end of this article.)  These issues were porosity for gas release,  the polymer pyrolysis temperature,  the “glue” effect of viscous melt materials,  the “reinforcing aggregate” properties of particulate solids,  and the reinforcing effects of fibers reaching into (or within) the char layer.

The baseline ramjet insulator,  Dow Corning’s DC 93-104,  did the best,  as expected.  The shortfalls of the experimental alternatives were understood,  once those issues were all identified.  These issues were all addressed in the formulation of the DC 93-104 (as indicated by the blue notes),  but were not all addressed in the other materials.  Those included a Japanese “equivalent” to DC 93-104,  and two pre-preg cloth layups.

These were short-burn tests,  all under 1 minute long.  It was already known that many ramjet applications needed longer burn times than that,  but that thicker layers of the ablative were simply not a design option,  because of the enclosed volume reductions.  The solution to the burn time problem came from “in-house”,  not Dow Corning,  and is illustrated in Figure 2.  As used in the 20-inch diameter ASALM-PTV combustor at the same liner thickness,  the retention ribbons held the char in place as an insulator,  for up to 15 minute burns!  While not as “good” an insulator as the virgin material,  the retained char was “good enough” to essentially achieve acceptable steady-state results in ground tests and in flight tests!

That kinked-ribbon retention feature was not included in any of the experimental insulation tests discussed here,  primarily because all the burn times were under 1 minute!  Not being present in these tests,  it cannot obscure or impact the fundamental ablation phenomena behind the results obtained!  Furthermore,  the two pre-preg cloth alternatives had to be wrapped onto an inflatable-bladder mandrel for installation,  more like rocket motor insulations.  They could not use the kinked-ribbon retention feature anyway!  The hope was that the cloth fabric would provide enough retention.  But it did not.

Applying This Knowledge to Ramjet Combustors

The designer must deal with all 5 of the issues in the ramjet environment,  but only 1 of the 5 issues actually dominated the picture,  as indicated by the gold stars in Figure 3.  This dominant issue proved to be randomly-oriented high-temperature-capable fibers tying the char to the virgin beneath.  The need for enough porosity to release the pyrolysis gases through the char was not much of an issue in the thin layer designs we were using.  In heat shields that are thickerit might be more important!  There is some impact of the presence (or not) of sticky,  viscous melt on the surface,  to prevent the more rapid erosion of small particles by the fluid shear.

If ramjet combustor design was all that we were considering,  then the loss of some char chunks as seen with the Japanese material,  might be countered either by the long-burn kinked-ribbon retention feature,  or by adjusting the formulation to include more carbon fiber,  or both.  Even so,  it provided useful 1 minute burn time,  even with some chunk loss.

Applying This Knowledge to Heat Shields

There is definitely overlap of the physics identified between the ramjet combustor and the heat shield applications!   While heat shields do not deal with all the same issues,  the porosity and char loss do indeed overlap a little.  But the need for radial fiber reinforcement would seem to dominate both applications,  preventing as it does the loss of chunks of char!  This is illustrated for ramjets in Figure 4.

Quite apparently the real mistake made with the Artemis-2 bonded-tile heat shield design,  was deleting the reinforcing hex from those bonded tiles!  And that says the most important thing NASA could do is to look for ways and means to put that reinforcing hex back into those very bonded tiles!  Preferably doing it without doing the labor-intensive and expensive hand-gunning of the Avcoat into each individual hex cell! 

So,  the main question here is:  can that really be done?

There Really Is a Practical Fix         

The answer is “yes”! 

But to even consider it,  one must avoid the trap of “either/or” thinking!  That trap considers only tiles without hex versus doing it hand-gunned completely like Apollo and Orion EFT-1.  That thinking trap is illustrated in Figure 5,  along with this author’s way out of that trap:  use an extrusion press to load all the cells in the hex with Avcoat,  all at once!

That way,  one still uses bonded tiles,  and avoids all the hand-gunning labor!  And the tiles with hex in them should cease shedding chunks of char,  no matter how the entry is flown,  skip or not!  Plus,  the high micro-balloon content that leads to low densities,  but also to high mix viscosity difficulties,  is something the extrusion press can handle.  All that is needed is the right tile mold tooling to hold the hex in place on the press.  That is just tooling design.  Plus,  the inherent human labor variability is eliminated.

Such a solution is unavailable to people hampered by the bad habit of “either/or” thinking.  The author gave this solution to NASA more than a year ago!  But they so very clearly did not use it,  or even contact him about it!

Final Comments

These ramjet results and their application to heat shields are as much “engineering art” as they are anything!  One will not find this in published reports or academic texts.  A lot of this is qualitative,  not quantitative,  and inherently so!  The difference between “engineering art” and “engineering science” is explained in Figure 6.  Note the large fraction of the necessary knowledge that is “art”,  especially in development work!

Note also that the engineering art is passed-on,  one-on-one,  on-the-job,  from the old hands to the “newbies”.  That is,  it is passed-on if,  and only if,  there are any old hands on the staff to do that teaching job!  Too many organizations prefer to hire only “newbies” that they can under-pay,  instead of retaining the “old hands”,  excusing this with “because they are too expensive”.  But it loses you half (or more) of your essential knowledge!

The current status is this:

It is too late to fix the Artemis-2 heat shield,  that rocket is on the pad to launch!

               Artemis-2 is forced to risk worse or deeper cratering with a crew

               Probability of a fatal burn-through is not zero !

               Had almost 2 years,  so why not?  Schedule and money,  same as Challenger!

Must fix the heat shields of Artemis-3-on,  to avoid a fatal failure,  sooner or later!

               Must not repeat Challenger mistake:  must value lives above schedule & money

               Trust results (even qualitative),  not the same sources that failed to predict cratering

What one has to learn and remember is this very harsh lessonThere is nothing as expensive as a dead crew!  Especially one dead from a bad management decision!  

In different ways,  this bad decision thing is really is the root cause of both the Challenger and the Columbia disasters!  “Avoid that mistake like plague” is the best advice this author can give you,  even if it means listening to outsiders,  or overcoming “not invented here” prejudice!  Please feel free contact him for more details.  He has test data and lots of photos from those old ramjet tests. 

Figure 1 – Related Experience with Ramjet Ablatives

Figure 2 – Raising Ramjet Burn Times with Thin Liners

Figure 3 – Only One of the Issues Dominated the Short-Burn Ramjet Tests

Figure 4 – There is Physics Overlap from Ramjet Liners to Heat Shields

Figure 5 – There Really Is a Practical “Fix”

Figure 6 – “Rocket Science” Really Is Not Just Science

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Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Fact Checking

Presented without comment.  It speaks for itself.


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Saturday, February 21, 2026

Space-Based AI? Not Easy!

I see a lot of hoopla and speculation about why Elon Musk has “officially” changed his goal from Mars to the moon.  The answer is simple in the shorter term:  money talks! 

Musk’s companies SpaceX and Tesla are both serious government contractors.  SpaceX provides launch services to NASA and to DOD,  plus it is contracted to attempt to land humans on the moon for NASA’s Artemis program.  I am unsure whether the Tesla connection has to do with electric vehicles or the “Powerwall”,  but that does not really matter.

The point is,  much of the income for both SpaceX and Tesla come from their government contracts.  It is one thing to honestly try to fulfill a contract and fail.  It is quite another thing to default by not making the attempt. 

Musk is being paid by no one to go to Mars.  Why is this hard for anyone to understand?  He must focus SpaceX’s contracted efforts on the moon,  or else lose funding,  and worse,  all credibility as a government contractor.

There’s also been a lot of hoopla over recent Musk statements about AI data centers,  in space,  or maybe on the moon.  I see all sorts of speculation about this,  none of it based on any sort of facts. 

AI data centers involve enormous amounts of power.  All of that power gets eventually converted to waste heat,  which must be gotten rid of,  somehow.  Yes,  space is cold,  but getting rid of waste heat in space is just NOT that easy!

In space,  there is no heat loss capability due to either convection or conduction.   There is only thermal radiation to the cold background of deep space.  On the moon,  there could be conduction into the lunar surface,  but no convection,  because there is no air.  Mars is similar,  with “air” that is close to vacuum.

As for “in space”,  the cheapest destination is Earth orbit.  And from there,  the only way to shed waste heat,  is to radiate it into deep space.

I ran some numbers.  They do NOT look very good,  if one is limited to a coolant temperature compatible with cooling silicon electronics,  which is near the boiling point of water at normal atmospheric pressure.  Thermal radiation is bound by physics to be inefficient,  until the radiating surface is well above 1000 F.  The relative effects are given in the figure.

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Sunday, February 15, 2026

The El Paso Airport Shutdown Fiasco

Update 2-17-2026:  A slightly toned-down version of this ran as a board-of-contributors column in the Waco Tribune-Herald,  Tuesday,  17 February,  2026.  

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A few days ago,  the FAA closed all airspace over El Paso,  Texas,  for 10 days,  catching everyone by surprise.  A few hours later,  they rescinded that order,  but a lot of damage to air travel had been done.  And,  during the closure,  even emergency services like air ambulances were grounded.  This caused a lot of problems,  and created the uproar we have seen in the news recently.

Lies and misinformation and wild speculations immediately flooded both the internet and the news.  There were mentions of laser weapons,  of drug cartel drones,  of military involvement,  and more,  all of it very confusing.  This initially was made even worse by lies about what happened,  from Trump administration figures.

As usual,  there were grains of truth in many of these speculations,  but how it all fits together is very different.  The drug cartels really do use drones to smuggle drugs across the border.  That really is the best way for them to do it.  Which brings up the next question:  how do you stop the drones?

Somehow,  Customs and Border Protection (CBP) obtained a military laser weapon intended to shoot down incoming drones.  How they obtained it,  and from what agency within the military,  is still unclear.  What they did with it,  is the start of a big problem.

Without notifying the city of El Paso,  the airport,  the FAA,  or anybody else,  CBP started trying to identify and shoot down some drug cartel drones.  They did this in close proximity to the airport,  which is quite close to the Rio Grande border,  actually. 

That was the first big mistake:  not telling anybody.  The second mistake was misidentifying a party balloon as a drone.   Given the small sizes as seen from a distance,  that is quite understandable.  They shot it down with the laser.

Exactly what happened next is unclear,  but somehow the FAA learned of lasers being used near the El Paso airport,  probably from their air traffic control employees in the tower,  and maybe the pilots flying near the airport.  Even low-power lasers near airports are already a forbidden and illegal hazard nationwide.  That is what prompted the FAA to close the airspace over El Paso entirely,  because they did not know what was going on.

It is not clear exactly who finally called whom and when,  but when the FAA learned it was CBP trying to shoot down drug smuggling drones,  and their activity had ceased,  FAA rescinded the shutdown.  About this same time,  the administration figures started claiming that their border agents shot down a drug smuggling drone with a laser weapon,  as if that would “justify” disrupting air travel around El Paso so badly.

Then,  the “party balloon” thing surfaced,  as it inevitably would,  if CBP had misidentified a balloon as a drone,  and shot it down.  Most likely,  that is why they stopped firing the laser weapon,  when they realized they had made a target identification mistake.  There are a lot of drones flying over the border,  so confusion and mistakes are easily understandable. 

Since the event,  I noticed that no administration or CBP people have admitted to what really happened.  The administration has ceased lying about “shooting down a drone”,  which indicates the veracity of the claim that CBP downed a party balloon by mistake. 

What this episode really indicates is the extreme incompetence of Trump appointees heading various agencies.  This was evidently an experiment to see if CBP could actually shoot down drug-smuggling drones with a military laser weapon.   If they could,  that would certainly be something we all can agree that they should be doing,  if they can do it “right”. 

But doing this dangerous experiment right next to a busy airport in a big city,  was stupid in the extreme,  because it endangered significant commercial air traffic!  Doing it without telling anyone they were going to do it,  was even stupider!  Not understanding that the main difficulty would be target identification,  plus ignoring the hazard of laser injury to innocent bystanders,  was egregiously stupid!

The proper place to have done this was many miles further downstream,  away from El Paso and its airport.  There would less drug drone traffic to shoot at,  but the risk to air travel would have been far lower,  and the local airspace closure to do it “right” would have affected far fewer people. 

So why did they not do it “right”? 

I already told you:  incompetent appointees.  Appointees willing to do anything Trump wants,  but demonstrably incompetent to do anything right.  Our government is rife with such.  We see it almost every day in the news.

You can fix that,  at the mid-term election,  by voting out of office all of Trump’s enablers in Congress.  You can,  unless he can successfully steal it with voter suppression and gerrymandering,  something all of you have also already seen going on in the news.

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Since I first wrote this,  I did find out that the laser weapon was Blue Halo’s LOCUST weapon,  pictured.  Supposedly,  this is a 20 KW laser system.   Blue Halo has been acquired by Aerovironment.  The weapon was seen at a conference mounted to an Army Strycker vehicle.  It was also seen near El Paso last August,  according to Axios. 

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Friday, February 13, 2026

More About Trump Treasons

This is essentially the text I sent to my federal representation, as of this date:

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These are but two headlines I saw on the PBS NewsHour Website on this date,  related to the weakening of NATO by Trump’s insults and threats toward our allies:

Strained U.S. ties loom over NATO leaders ahead of Munich Security Conference

By Nick Schifrin, Veronica Vela

'Are we still on the same team?' Ischinger asks as Trump fuels NATO tensions

By Nick Schifrin, Sonia Kopelev, Dan Sagalyn

Our NATO alliance helps to protect us all against Putin’s Russia.  Putin and his Soviet predecessors have all wanted to weaken or destroy NATO,  but could not!  Trump is doing it for Putin,  as the quoted headlines attest!  Putin’s Russia is the indisputable enemy of the US (and most of Europe).  Trump weakening the alliance is doing what Putin wants but cannot do himself.  And THAT is aid and comfort to the enemy,  per the Constitution!

The US and NATO have an ally and proxy in Ukraine,  to help hold back Putin’s ambitions in Europe.  (I think it was a mistake not to put Ukraine into NATO long ago,  long before even Putin’s illegal annexation of the Crimea.)  Nevertheless,  Ukraine has held back Putin with aid and weapons from the US and Europe,  for several years,  even past the invasion. 

Trump took office for his second term and almost immediately stopped US aid to Ukraine.  Within but days he removed the US sanctions that had impeded Russia in its invasion.  It has since taken about a year to deplete the weapons coming only from Europe,  so that Zelenskyy is forced to surrender and sue for peace,  on some or all of Putin’s terms,  which is so very evidently the entire point of Trump’s so-called “peace process”. 

The image dates to August 2025.  At one of Trump’s “peace process” meetings.  

How is forcing an ally to surrender to an enemy NOT providing aid and comfort to that enemy? 

That’s one count of aid and comfort treason for betraying Ukraine,  and multiple counts of aid and comfort treason for every ally in NATO that Trump has alienated.  Including especially Denmark and Greenland,  against which he threatened war!

DO SOMETHING ABOUT TRUMP’S TREASONS!  Or else be complicit in them!

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There will be a reckoning for these crimes;  it is coming! 

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Incompetents End the Fight Against Climate Change

Donald Trump and his appointed EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin have ended the EPA’s fight against climate change by repealing the EPA’s “endangerment finding” policy.  That policy was supported by very-strong,  evidence-based science that cannot rationally be disputed. 

These two men are entirely incompetent to judge the veracity of a scientific finding!  We already know that about Trump and the many lies he tells,  including the long-debunked “climate change is a hoax”.   He demonstrably does not value truth or fact,  and never has.

Zeldin is not competent to make that judgement either.  He got a law degree,  not a science degree,  and has only ever been an elected politician!   He knows nothing of science!  So why did Trump put him over the EPA?  Because he would do what Trump wanted him to do,  no matter how wrong.  The same as all his other appointees.

This further endangers the lives and livelihoods of Americans by “justifying” the repeal of all the pollution regulations,  making Trump’s giant corporate donors (especially but not exclusively in the fossil fuel industry) even richer!  They get richer at YOUR expense,  I might add!  Your air and water are about to get dirtier,  to the point of killing a lot of people.  We have seen this before,  and it took decades to fix. 

The EPA guy Zeldin is not the only incompetent Trump has appointed (nearly all of them are).  The other most glaring example is his HHS Secretary,  RFK Jr.  This idiot wants to take away from you all the immunizations that keep you and your children safe from things like polio,  smallpox,  diptheria,  tetanus,  yellow fever,  Covid,  and the flu.  And even things like mumps,  measles,  and chickenpox (which sometimes do kill,  especially measles). 

His anti-vaccine lies have already caused massive disease outbreaks.  But he got his kids vaccinated!  How hypocritical is that?  Does that tell you anything?  It should!

If you are tired of being treated like crap by these incompetent idiots,  then vote them all out of office!  That includes Trump,  who is not only an incompetent idiot,  but a convicted felon,  and a now-almost-successful wannabee dictator,  who has created a secret police force to intimidate you,  out of what used to be ICE.  Plus,  he is the most prolific egregious liar I have ever seen,  since Hitler’s propaganda minister Goebbels.  And all his underlings do the same lying,  about everything!

You are paying the price for his tariffs!  You are getting infected by the diseases he refuses to fight!  You are going to die fighting the wars he needlessly starts.  You will be killed for his desires!  You believed his lies and voted him in,  twice!  You should be ashamed!

You need to write your representation and demand that Trump and all his incompetent appointees be impeached and removed!   Go protest!  Do something!  I already have!

And stop believing the lies

Myself,  I never did believe any of them,  but then I was taught science and facts and critical thinking in the public schools,  long before these idiots dumbed those schools down,  with their stupid tests!

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Tuesday, February 3, 2026

The Trump Dictatorship Is Here

The Trump dictatorship is almost fully in place,  today!   The figure shows 7 of 10 hallmarks fully in place,  with the other 3 mostly completed.  Looking at it should scare the ever-lovin’ hell out of you!

And this dictator is also a traitor,  on at least 2 counts of the aid-and-comfort type of treason,  as defined in our Constitution.  He has betrayed one ally (Ukraine) to the enemy (Putin),  and he has weakened all our alliances by angering or threatening to attack allies!

We are already in a situation where we cannot trust the public statements of any high official in this Trump administration.  Not the leadership of the DOJ,  not the leadership of the FBI,  not Homeland Security,  not Health and Human Services,  not the FDA.  They all lie egregiously,  essentially every time they speak.   We have already seen it!  You dare believe NOTHING that any of them say!

All these appointed offices have been packed with dedicated Trump supporters as their leadership,  who will very apparently say anything Trump wants,  or do anything Trump says,  no matter how illegal or evil.  We’ve seen our immigration agencies turned into a secret police force,  deliberately being brutal to intimidate the population,  and killing people!  This has occurred in several opposition-led cities,  the latest being Minneapolis.

You can no longer believe even the Supreme Court!  There were 3 pre-existing far-right justices,  to which Trump added 3 dedicated supporters,  and THAT is where the current Supreme Court majority came from,  that has made such bad decisions recently!  They have been very busy over-ruling lower court decisions that were not in favor of Trump,   which are coming from those lower courts Trump has not yet packed with rabid supporters.  And,  they gave Trump immunity for any crimes he commits while in office!

Some lower courts are already packed with rabid Trump supporters.  This is why needless court delays forced Jack Smith to drop two slam-dunk-conviction criminal cases against Trump,  because they would not go to trial before the 2024 election,  which Trump might win (and he did).  Without those needless delays,  Trump would have been in jail and therefore un-electable,  by the 2024 election time.

Summarizing:  both the Executive and Judicial branches are essentially already taken over and neutralized as the sources of any opposition to Trump. 

As for Congress,  opposition there is already neutralized because (and as long as) the Trump personality cult that used to be the GOP holds the majority of seats in both houses.  Which is also why I believe there will be no laws made to retard any of this evil that is going on,  including that being done by the secret police force. 

Possible premature loss of control over Congress is why Trump is so desperate to steal the 2026 election with the gerrymandering he demanded!  If he gets past that election with his control of Congress still intact,  he will have time to finish purging the military of high-ranking officers who might oppose him.  Once that purge is achieved,  he no longer needs or cares about control of Congress!  Trump as a military-supported dictator will be a fait accompli. 

If Trump fails to steal the 2026 election,  he is in some trouble,  with an impeachment coming from the House.  It only takes a simple majority to do that,  and he has already publicly warned his supporters about that risk.  But,  it takes a 2/3 majority in the Senate to convict him!  I don't foresee a 2/3 majority of the opposition coming from the 2026 election in the Senate,  so a significant number of disaffected GOP members would have to vote with the opposition to convict.  I do NOT believe that to be a very probable outcome!  

Failure to convict in the Senate leaves him in place as dictator,  and if that happens,  he will convert the 2028 election to something rigged or a sham,  should he live that long.  If he does not live that long,  we are in for civil wars to see which cultist succeeds him as dictator.  That will likely have factions of the military fighting each other,  and killing us,  too.  

That failure-to-convict outcome leaves ONLY revolution in the streets as the lone remaining way to get rid of him,  before it is too late and we are destroyed by civil wars among competing dictator-wannabees trying to succeed him!  And,  he will be fully-supported by the surviving high-ranking military officers,  by somewhere around the 2026 election time,  or shortly thereafter.  “We the people” outnumber the military,  but they outgun us!  Revolution in the streets is a bloodbath at best!  

And the real problem with revolution is,  about half of "we the people" were suckered by the lies into becoming Trump cult believers and voting this dictator into office!  Twice!  That likely means there are fewer of us than we'd need,  by far,  to fight the revolution.  Why?   Because nothing changes the minds of fervent cult believers!  They will fight against the rest of us,  whether it is for Trump,  or one of his successors.  Why?  Because they prefer belief over facts and evidence!

Let's just say I am pessimistic about our future as a free people.  VERY pessimistic! 

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