Tuesday, March 31, 2026

About the Artemis-2 Mission

The following picture is a NASA illustration of the mission.  It does not give reliable distances,  nor does it show when the vehicle crosses,  or is outside,  the Van Allen radiation belts.  Outside the Van Allen belts,  the vehicle is also outside the Earth’s magnetic field,  and therefore at risk for radiation exposure,  should a solar flare’s coronal mass ejection (CME) event occur,  and happen to hit them.  


The next two figures together show the sequence of actual orbits being used,  after I looked around to various sources on line,  for real distance information.  I could not fit all the information into one figure.  That is why there are two figures that I hand-drew.

The NASA space launch system (SLS) rocket is a two-stage launch vehicle whose first stage core is assisted by two large solid boosters (SRB’s),  as was the space shuttle.  This first stage booster and its SRB’s essentially put the interim cryogenic propellant second stage (ICPS),  plus Orion capsule and its service module (SM),  onto a transfer ellipse with an apogee at the desired apogee altitude,  and a perigee that is pretty close to being a surface-grazing orbit.  There is no second stage ICPS burn to get onto that transfer ellipse. 

The ICPS makes a small burn at that desired apogee,  which raises the perigee up to the desired perigee altitude just outside the atmosphere,   but still quite low.  That apogee is actually within the inner of the two Van Allen radiation belts!    Without that perigee-raising burn at the initial apogee,  the Orion would inevitably re-enter the atmosphere on its first-pass return to perigee! 

The ICPS second stage then makes another,  larger burn at the newly-raised perigee point,  which raises the apogee to a very high elliptical orbit apogee,  actually outside both of the Van Allen belts.  They extend from about 1000 km,  to over 50,000 km,  altitudes.

The ICPS stage then makes one last “small” burn to put it into a “graveyard orbit”.  That graveyard orbit was not defined anywhere that I could access,  so I could not determine the magnitude of that burn.  All of this that I could find,  is in my first hand-drawn figure,  here: 


My second hand-drawn figure just below shows the transition from this high elliptic orbit to the actual transfer trajectory to the moon.  I used an ellipse from the low 185 km perigee at Earth to an apogee at the average distance of the moon to approximate the actual figure-8 trajectory,  for the purpose of estimating the departure delta-vee (dV) supplied by the Orion Service Module (SM) propulsion.  That dV is shown in that second hand-drawn figure. 

The actual transfer trajectory starts with this ellipse,  but gets distorted into the figure-8 shape by the gravity of the moon passing by,  making those details a 3-body problem one can only solve by finite-difference methods on the computer.  It loops around the moon in almost a polar orientation,  somewhere near 6500 km altitude,  behind the moon.  Then it free-returns to Earth.  A minor course correction from the SM is needed,  just before it gets jettisoned,  to ensure hitting Earth’s atmosphere at just the right angle,  for the free-return direct entry.


That direct re-entry returning from the moon is more demanding than one from low Earth orbit like the space shuttle endured,  because the speed at entry interface (about 140 km altitude) is higher,  at essentially the perigee speed of the transfer ellipse model shown above,  or right at 10.94 km/s,  maybe even 10.98 km/s.  That speed is very nearly Earth escape speed,  which is 11.18 km/s at the surface,  and 11.07 km/s at the entry interface altitude of 140 km.  Only about 90 to 130 m/s different!

The test history of the Orion capsule and its heat shield points to a disturbing possibility of heat shield damage possibly happening on this Artemis-2 mission!  The first Orion flew atop a Delta-IV launch vehicle uncrewed,  for a re-entry test,  among other things.  This was before Artemis,  and was named experimental flight test 1,  or EFT-1.  It had a heat shield manufactured of the same materials,  and built exactly the same way,  as the Apollo heat shields.  It did fine,  but that is an expensive,  labor-intensive manufacturing process. 

NASA used the same basic ablative material,  but manufactured in a completely different way,  for building two Orion capsules at once:  designated for the Artemis-1 and -2 missions.  They built the Artemis-2 heat shield before flight-testing the revised manufacturing process for it on the uncrewed Artemis-1,  launched by an SLS rocket.    They expected it to do fine,  but it did not,  unexpectedly shedding chunks of char,  leaving craters in the heat shield,  as the photo just below shows.  This is an official NASA photo of the Artemis-1 heat shield,  as recovered after the uncrewed Artemis-1 flight. 


The streaks on the heat shield point to a “source”,  to photo right on the heat shield,  which would be the stagnation point deliberately located off-center,  for generating a slight lift force during entry.  That force is small,  but it can “fine tune” the re-entry trajectory shape,  by rolling the vehicle to point that force where you want it.  NASA has done this for decades,  dating back to the Gemini flights of the mid 1960’s.  That is normal.

But,  if you look close,  you can see “craters”,  some large,  some small,  all over that heat shield,  where it shed chunks of the charred material from its surface!  That outcome was entirely unexpected,  and led to serious investigations at NASA,  for what to do about it. 

It must also be said that these damage craters,  as they were experienced on Artemis-1,  were not a risk for a fatal burn through!  The interior temperatures in the cabin did not vary from normal and expected,  despite the alarming damage!

NASA decided from its investigations that the two-heating-pulse “skip” entry,  that they used experimentally for Artemis-1,  was the culprit behind the chunk-shedding,  thinking that charring-material gas-evolution during the second heating pulse is what “blew” these chunks out,  leaving the craters behind.  They eliminated the skip during re-entry for Artemis-2,  getting it down to 1 heating pulse,  and decided to fly the same heat shield design,  already installed on the Artemis-2 capsule,  with a crew.

Others are not so sure about that damage mechanism.  We shall soon see. 

If Artemis-2 shows similar damage to Artemis-1,  then we (and NASA) will know that they were wrong about this damage mechanism!  Only a flight test can tell!

The problem here is shedding a second chunk from the bottom of one of the larger craters.  Should that happen,  the probability of a fatal burn through becomes very significant indeed!   Such would be a very low-probability event,  but that probability is not zero!

Last year,  I sent my concerns about this problem,  plus a low-cost means to stop the chunk-shedding,  even for a two-pulse skip re-entry,  to the entry heat protection group at NASA-Houston,  and again this year directly to the new Administrator,  at his DC office.  I do know that the Houston heat protection group thought I was right about my concern,  and about my proposed “fix”. 

So far,  NASA has not officially chosen to explore my alternative,  and,  as near as I can tell,  has already started construction of the Artemis-3 capsule with the same Artemis-1/Artemis-2 heat shield design.

Personally,  I would not ask a crew to fly with an unresolved risk that I already thought that I knew how to mitigate!  I think that is unethical!  Apparently,  there are high-level managers at NASA who disagree with that assessment. 

All I can say to them is this:  “there is nothing as expensive as a dead crew,  especially one dead from a bad management decision”.

What I sent the new Administrator is what was posted here on “exrocketman” 1 March 2026,  under the title “Ramjet Data Re:  Heat Shields”.  I knew a lot about ablative heat protection in ramjets and in solid rockets.  Some of that overlaps re-entry heat shields!

I did the 2-body ellipse orbital calculations illustrated here,  with a simple Excel spreadsheet “orbit basics spreadsheet.xlsx”,  which is part of the course materials posted online for free download,  via the Mars Society’s New Mars forums.  It simply automates the classic 2-body textbook equations.  While that New Mars forums site is down as of this writing,  you can still get that spreadsheet from me.  Just email me for it.  Anybody can do what I did here.

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Thursday, March 26, 2026

Do Something About Trump and His Iran War

The following is the latest message that I sent to Sen. Cornyn,  Sen. Cruz,  and Rep. Sessions,  my federal representation in Congress,  with my "take" on things afterwards.  I have seen ABSOLUTELY NOTHING from any of them that even suggests they might do something about wannabee dictator (and multiple treason-committer) Trump!  Which means they have LOST MY VOTE!  Period!  End of issue!  ANYBODY ELSE would do a better job for me!

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Dictatorship, treason,  incompetence          366 words

I wish to call your attention to two things recently published.  One is the op-ed column by Anne Applebaum,  that appeared in today’s (Tuesday 3-24-2026) Waco Tribune-Herald,  distributed by Tribune Content Agency.  The other is an opinion piece I published 3-20-2026 and updated 3-24-2026 at http://exrocketman.blogspot.com under the title “Just So You Know … ”,  on the conduct of the current war in Iran.  Both point to the extreme incompetence of President Trump,  regarding international affairs and the conduct of wars.  THAT INCOMPETENCE IS ENDANGERING THIS NATION!

I have previously messaged you repeatedly about the dictatorship this man is trying to impose upon us,  by consolidating all power into the Executive,  and weaponizing its agencies with sycophants who will do anything he asks,  no matter how wrong.

I have also previously messaged you repeatedly about how Trump has consistently angered and alienated our allies,  and even betrayed one (Ukraine) directly to an enemy (Putin’s Russia).  Weakening and damaging our alliances is quite simply treason of the aid and comfort type.

Now Trump has gotten us into another asymmetric “forever” war in the Middle East,  and is searching for a way out,  complaining that our allies won’t help him.  He is incompetent to understand why they do not want to help him,  when he has abused and angered them,  and they had no part in the decision to start this war!  I do not see him even attempting to do the real regime change that would actually end the terrorist threats from Iran.  Events very strongly suggest that he will “declare victory” and leave,  with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (a terrorist army) still in power.  Which is really LOSING this war!

What will it take for you to stand up and do what you swore to do,  when you took your oath of office?   Impeach and remove this man for (1) rampant abuse of the powers of his office,  (2) multiple treasons of the aid and comfort type,  (3)  starting a war with another country outside any reasonable interpretation of any Congressional war powers delegation,  and (4) being far too incompetent to actually finish that war successfully.

Fulfill your oath of office!  Do your sworn job!

Verified all 3 got it                                                    sent 3-24-2026           

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Now bear in mind that continuing to bomb civilian infrastructure in Iran does NOT harm the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC),  it only harms civilians who were once our friends!  The IRGC is still running the same dictatorship.  They take what they need,  and the population they oppress is left to its own devices to survive.  That is,  when the IRGC is not killing all the opposition it can identify.  

Trump and Hegseth may have killed some (or possibly most) of the mullahs that were the Iranian regime,  in concert with the IRGC that kept them in power.  But while the mullahs are now mostly gone,  the IRGC is still there,  mostly undamaged,  and as terroristically-focused as ever!  They ARE the regime now!  And they will continue to do the same evils they have done for 47 years,  unless essentially destroyed to the last man!  That is simply the nature of terrorist organizations.  

There are only 3 options here:  (1) continue fighting an expensive "forever Mideast war" with NO resolution,  (2) actually topple the terrorist regime,  or (3) LOSE THE WAR by leaving the IRGC in power,  no matter what else might obtain!  

Any "negotiations" that Trump points to (and Iran denies) are part of option 3,  losing the war!  In other words,  Trump is lying to you!  He is trying to get out of this war he started (probably illegally),  and without any help from our NATO allies that he has alienated,  angered,  and even made threats against.  And he is simply too incompetent to understand why they won't help him!

Actually toppling the terrorist regime would require a WW2 "D-Day"-size invasion of around half a million men,  to sweep the entire country and ferret-out from their hidey-holes,  all of the IRGC!  50-60,000 troops is SIMPLY NOT ADEQUATE to do that!  PERIOD!  Which is why all prior administrations in this country,  and all the other countries,  have not attempted regime change in Iran,  in 47 years now!  But Trump did!  He encouraged an uprising at the start of this,  but HAS NOT FOLLOWED THROUGH and aided anybody!

PLEASE quit believing what this totally-incompetent liar tells youStop voting for himand all those who support him!  

Stop before it is too late!  

His dictatorship over you is now almost complete!  His secret police to abuse and "disappear" some,  and intimidate the rest,  is the out-of-control ICE and CBP that we have already seen!  And he has already established concentration camps in which to house those he wants to "disappear" by deportation,  rather outside the law,  as we have already seen!  Matters of public record!

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Saturday, March 21, 2026

Just So You Know ...

The following is a column that I submitted to the Waco “Tribune-Herald” on Friday 3-20-2026.  They haven’t had time yet to use it or not,  but I thought it too important not to post here on “exrocketman".  Just as it was submitted.  Update 3-24-2026:  so far they have not used it.

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Just So You Know …                                                                            GW Johnson   3-20-2026 w/c 908

We are in another Mideast war,  one that could drag on “forever” like the others,  despite what the President and his administration figures claim,  and violating an election promise he made!  3 weeks in,  we have yet to see a coherent explanation from your President,  or ANY of his administration figures,  as to (1) “why start this war?”  and (2) “why start it right now?”

Fuel prices are already rising sharply because of this war.  In large part,  fuel prices ultimately determine the prices of almost anything you can name,  because they power both the transportation and the production of almost everything!  Every single oil price shock during my entire life has precipitated a recession at one level or another,  and inflation!  To get elected,  your President promised you affordability.  He lied!

Trump and Hegseth told you they knocked out Iran’s military and killed at least some of the ruling ayatollahs,  in the first few days of this war,  plus destroying all the ballistic missile launchers,  and the factories where the infamous Shahed drones are made.  That claim may be true,  but they lied by omission! 

They said NOTHING about Iran’s Revolutionary Guard,  the private terrorist army that kept those ayatollahs in power!  And it is the Revolutionary Guard that still rules Iran,  oppressing its people,  and flinging drones and missiles all over the region!  Their drone attacks and threats of mines are why both oil and cargo shipping are blocked from going through the Strait of Hormuz.  

The Revolutionary Guard has possession of the underground-hidden,  already-enriched,  uranium!  They have the missiles and drones,  and are still flinging a lot of them!  They have no thoughtful governance anymore,  just their own terrorist proclivities!  They literally ARE the evil regime that still rules Iran!

And until they are destroyed utterly,  (1) there is no end to their ambitions for nuclear weapons!  (2) There is no end to their subsidiary terrorist operations (Hamas,  Hezbollah,  the Houthis,  etc.) that have killed our people and our friends for 47 years now!  (3) There is no end to their threat to the entire world’s economies by closing the Strait of Hormuz!  (4) There is no end to their sworn objective of wiping Israel off the face of the Earth!  (5) There is no end to their oppression of the totally-unarmed and unorganized Iranian people,  who were once our friends!  

There is no credible hope of an uprising toppling the Revolutionary Guard,  despite what Trump said.  He lied!

There is only one acceptable outcome to this war,  which would address all five evils listed in the paragraph just above:  real regime change in Iran!  That requires a truly massive ground invasion that not only drives the Revolutionary Guard from power,  but also utterly destroys it,  essentially to the last man!  And THAT unpalatable prospect is EXACTLY WHY no prior administration in this country,  or any other country,  has attempted real regime change in Iran for 47 years now!

By starting this Iran war,  apparently without thinking it through properly,  Trump has put us into a far worse position than ever before!  We now have a “forever war” with lots of casualties and expense,  or a regime-change operation on the scale of the D-Day invasion in World War 2,  or else just lose this war by leaving the Revolutionary Guard in power!  If that last is chosen,  then eventually we will see a nuclear truck bomb used over here,  in revenge for our attack! 

One can argue about how legal it was for Trump to start this war without consulting Congress for authorization.  It is only my opinion that the war powers delegation act does not authorize direct attacks upon another country,  whether it has a terrorist regime or not,  only upon any terrorist armies they may harbor. 

Either way,  a President starting a war without proper authorization is abuse of power and an impeachable offense!  I have repeatedly informed my federal representation of this.

Trump has (too late) realized at least some of his mistake,  and is very clearly now searching for an off-ramp to “declare victory” and get out,  without losing his Congressional majorities in the 2026 mid-term elections!  But to do that,  he must quickly get the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial shipping again!  He needs help to do that!

So why is Trump surprised and frustrated that our allies are unwilling to get into a war they did not start,  and with which they had no part in the decision?  With a country that did NOT attack us first?  And after a year of being insulted,  angered,  and alienated by Trump!  (Not to mention being insulted and angered by Trump during his first term.)

I have repeatedly posed that question to my federal representation,  along with the arguably-true notion that weakening our alliances by alienating our allies,  is treason of the “aid and comfort” type!  That also is an impeachable offense!

All I can suggest is that you readers need to be doing the same thing I have been doing:  repeatedly messaging your federal representation!  Let them know how much you dislike what is going on,  and demand they correct it!  If they do not,  you then know “for sure” that you need somebody else as your representation.  Anybody else!  I do not think you could do worse than what you have now,  in the White House,  and in Congress!

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Search code DDMMYYYY format:     21032026

Search keywords:       bad government,  idiocy in politics,  treason

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Update 3-24-2026:  The figure is a sort of summary of what this war is fundamentally all about.  Iran had a sham democracy in which the mullahs (well-known as religious extremists) could over-ride any decision made by any elected person.  They were supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),  essentially a private terroristic army of extremists.  

This was a dictatorship of those mullahs and that army of terrorists acting together,  oppressing an unarmed and unorganized population,  and doing the 5 listed evils in the figure for 47 years now.  The only sure cure for those evils is regime change.

What we have done with the recent war is kill some of the mullahs,  but the IRGC is still in place,  in control,  and effectively they ARE the regime now!  And they demonstrably still have some missiles,  and a lot of drones,  and they are still waging asymmetric warfare with those weapons,  plus the economic war of a closed Strait of Hormuz.

There are three (and only three choices) available to us now,  listed in the figure.  I see no other possible options.

That last choice is really LOSING the war,  just like it says!  Why?  Because the IRGC terrorists stay in power!  Which means they will eventually create an atom bomb with their enriched uranium,  and they will sneak it into the US as a truck bomb (or similar),  for revenge!  And they will still try to create death and destruction as far as they can reach,  for as long as they exist! 

Now look at what is currently going on with Trump saying they are negotiating,  and the IRGC denying it!  Choices 1 or 2 look to be off the table.  That means Trump is really just trying to do choice 3 in some “face-saving way”!  Which means despite the claims of victory,  he LOSES the war and goes home,  leaving the problem to others in the future!

I see no other interpretation here!



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Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Stupid Is as Stupid Does

Here is one defining example of what dumbing-down education for 4 decades has wrought.


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Monday, March 16, 2026

Messages to Federal Representation

The following is a column I submitted to the Waco Tribune-Herald newspaper.  As of this date,  they have not used it.  I have added some yellow highlighting of critical points. 

In it,  I quote 3 messages recently sent to my federal representation.  To the end of it,  I have appended the text of a 4th message sent today.  

Together,  the 4 messages should make quite clear what I think of the Trump administration.

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original column submittal

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Recent Messages Sent to Federal Representation                        

Below are the unedited texts of my 3 most recent messages (of many),  all to sent Senator Cornyn,  Senator Cruz,  and Representative Sessions.  They speak for themselves!  All of you should be doing what I do! 

Sent 3-8-2026 about the new Iran war

History says no bombing campaign from the air ever won a war,  although they do influence the outcome.  I see no visible objective in this Iran war and therefore no end strategy.  It was not regime change,  or the Revolutionary Guard would have been targeted along with the mullahs they kept in power.   It is apparently just the vague call for “unconditional surrender”.  And continued bombing in cities will turn against us that portion of the population that is favorable to regime change.

This looks less and less like a well thought-out strategy,  and more like the childish,  petulant lashing-out of Trump against mullahs who would not deal with him.  The same thing happened to Maduro:  Venezuela was not really about the drugs or the oil or regime change.  There is a good side:  the destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah.  But nobody has destroyed the Revolutionary Guard,  the Houthis,  or any of the many other Iranian proxy terrorist armies!

And why now?  Apparently only because Trump’s “good buddy” Netanyahu was ready to go to war now.  The result:  we have massive fuel price increases,  on top of economic damage already done by Trump’s idiotic tariff trade wars against our friends and allies.  And so now we have another “forever” Mideast war,  breaking Trump’s election promise to avoid them.

Breaking promises is nothing new with Trump.  He has broken almost every promise he ever made,  dating back to long before he ever ran for office.  Most of his “policy initiatives” are based on known lies and conspiracy theories.   No sane person would ever believe anything he says,  except for what near-term actions he intends to take.  And I have already messaged you repeatedly about the treasons Trump has committed by seriously damaging our alliances,  especially NATO. 

We need a Congress that will take back its Constitutional powers to declare war,  its power of the purse,  and its power to remove from office any and all federal office holders,  for “high crimes or misdemeanors” they have committed,  like bribery,  corruption,  and abuse of power.  Not to mention treason!

My question:  are you (or are you not) a member of that Congress that we need? 

On multiple things,  sent 3-10-2026:

Do NOT vote for President Trump’s “Save America” Act!  We the voters,  at least half,  are tired of his attempts to steal elections,  “justified” by known lies about election fraud. 

We the voters,  at least half,  are tired of him using immigration agents as a secret police to abuse people and intimidate us. 

We the voters,  at least half,  do not believe the shifting and conflicting rationales offered by the Trump administration for the current Iran war.

We the voters,  at least half,  are tired of the financial chaos that Trump creates in our lives with tariffs and trade wars,  and now real wars.

We the voters,  at least half,  are tired of both houses of Congress not doing anything about any of these evils!  You are supposed to represent ALL of us!

I have messaged you repeatedly about the dictatorship Trump is trying to impose upon us,  and about the treasons he has committed by alienating our allies,  and directly betraying one of them!  I AM NOT ALONE in noticing these crimes!

Now stand up and DO SOMETHING about him!

Another about the Iran war sent 3-11-2026:

As you might guess from the contents of my repeated messages,  I am no fan of Donald Trump,  and I really dislike the way you have unconditionally voted in accordance with him so much of the time!  In my opinion,  (and I am not alone in this opinion),  you have damaged the country by not opposing hardly any of the bad things he does,  which far outnumber the good things.

I recently messaged you about the Iran war Trump started,  which he cannot coherently justify as to “why”,  or “why now”.  Nevertheless,  it is started,  and it needs to be finished correctly! 

There is only one acceptable outcome:  regime change!  Only that will simultaneously put an end to Iranian nuclear weapon ambitions,  Iranian proxy terrorist armies,  Iranian destabilization of everything in the Middle East including shipping,  Iranian threats to the survival of Israel,  and the oppression of the Iranian people. 

I do NOT trust Donald Trump to carry out that regime change!  I do NOT trust or believe anything that he says,  and with VERY good reason!  Neither should you!

You (and the rest of Congress) are going to have to force him to complete this war correctly,  or else remove him and force his successor to complete it correctly!   This is for the good of the country (and the world),  and that is FAR MORE IMPORTANT than your re-election chances,  your party’s advantage,  or your personal gain!

And when the war is over (done correctly),  you must take back Congress’s war powers,  so that no future President can start such wars so unconstitutionally,  ever again!

Now go do your job,  and be sure you do it right!  I (and many others) are watching you very closely,  to see just what you do!

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4th message sent 3-16-2026

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Iran war                                                                         227 words

I have already messaged you repeatedly about Trump and the Iran war he started.  I (and many others) see no strategy and no end game,  certainly not the only acceptable end game:  regime change in Iran!

He and Hegseth have definitely lied about how the missile and drone threat has been largely neutralized!  It most certainly has not,  as the closed Strait of Hormuz and continuing strikes in neighboring countries so very clearly prove! 

Now that Trump is in trouble with an asymmetric war that has no endpoint,  I see reports that he wants other countries to help him re-open the Strait of Hormuz to safe shipping. 

In other words,  he wants others to get him out of the trouble that he got himself into!  He is reportedly even threatening the NATO alliance if they don’t jump into this war and help him. 

And THAT would be yet another treason!  I have also repeatedly messaged you about the multiple treasons Trump has already committed by alienating our allies,  and even directly betraying one of them!

It is way past time that you get off your duff and GO DO SOMETHING about this demonstrably incompetent and destructive administration!  It has become pathetically clear that bringing about regime change in Iran will first require regime change here at home!

I want an answer:  why have you not already acted?

Verified all 3 got it                                                    sent  3-16-2026

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search keywords    bad government,  idiocy in politics,  treason

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Sunday, March 1, 2026

Ramjet Data Re: Heat Shields

Update 3-13-2026 Latest word is that NASA will attempt to launch Artemis-2 with a crew somewhere around 1 April.  That Orion capsule has the same flawed heat shield design as the un-crewed Artemis-1 test.  They will eliminate the entry skip on this one,  believing that skip-reheating to be the cause of the spalled-out chunks of char that left craters behind in the Artemis-1 heat shield.

The first Orion capsule to fly in space was EFT-1,  which had a heat shield built of the same basic material,  but manufactured by hand-gunning into the cells of hex,  the same way Apollo was.  It performed fine,  but like Apollo,  was labor-intensive and therefore expensive.  Artemis-1 was built of the same material,  but without the reinforcing hex,  as cast blocks of the material machined into bonded tiles.  The tile bonds and gap fillers performed fine,  but the basic material spalled out chunks unexpectedly (and unpredicted).  

It was unreinforced,  lacking the hex,  and in my judgement,  THAT is the real "smoking gun" here,  not the skip reentry!  My contention is that deletion of the reinforcing hex weakened the char enough to let it spall out chunks,  whether by internal pyrolysis gas release pressure,  or by fluid shear across the surface,  or both.  Likely both.  If Artemis-2 shows similar cratering,  then we know it was the lack of hex "for sure",  and not the second heating pulse of a skip reentry.  

Although,  we are risking a crew to see that result!

The real mistake here was the decision to build Artemis-2 the same way as Artemis-1,  BEFORE Artemis-1 ever flew!  And now,  as I hear it,  they are already building Artemis-3 to the same flawed design!

The following is a handout describing how to put the reinforcing hex back in,  without incurring the labor-intensive hand-gunning.  I sent this information to the heat protection group in Houston,  and they thought I was correct,  but it went nowhere.  Now I have sent it to the new Administrator,  Jared Isaacman.  I have not heard anything back so far.

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original article:

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The topic here is how experimental experiences, with ramjet ablative combustor liners,  relate to the unexpected and unpredicted entry heat shield problems seen on the Artemis-1 test flight.  There actually is some correspondence,  the overlap suggesting a “fix”.  What might actually be done to correct the heat shield problem is presented here.

The author is qualified to speak on this topic,  having spent 20 years in aerospace defense new product development work,  most of it in solid rockets and ramjet propulsion.  He is no narrow specialist,  as the next 20 years in teaching (at all levels),  in civil engineering,  and in aviation work demonstrates.   He is now long-retired,  but occasionally consults. 

The Problem                               

The Artemis-1 heat shield partially failed by unexpected and unpredicted cratering,  but did not have a burn-through.  It was constructed of Avcoat tiles bonded to the capsule structure.  Chunks of the charring heat shield spalled out,  creating alarmingly-deep craters in it.  The same Avcoat material was used as the Orion EFT-1 flight test heat shield,  and on the Apollo capsule years ago.  The difference with Artemis-1 was that the Avcoat of those earlier heat shields was hand-gunned into the numerous cells of a fiberglass-type hex attached directly to the capsule structure.  The change to bonded tiles was intended to greatly reduce the labor cost of the hand-gunning,  and also reduce its inherent variability.

The bonding of the tiles to the Artemis-1 capsule,  and the gaps between them,  are not in question here.  Those performed quite well.  Nor is the cost reduction in question,  it is quite real,  obtained by casting blocks of Avcoat that were final-machined to tile shapes. 

The only real difference is the question explored here:  those blocks of Avcoat had no reinforcing hex in them!

A Place to Look is Outside the Organization!                     

One needs a “fresh pair (or pairs) of eyes” to see past the thinking “ruts”!  The problem with that is that one may not really know the people who are from outside.  Therefore,  one tends to trust such outsiders less!  Another aspect of that is the “not invented here” prejudice!  One must strongly resist that!

Ramjet Ablatives Is a Related Experience

Unlike solid rockets,  ramjets have very long burn times.  And unlike rocket motor free volumes out near their case diameters,  ramjets have high fluid shear forces all along their combustor walls!  The ramjet has long proven to have the more challenging environment for ablative protection.  The reinforced-rubber insulations used in rocket cases are quite inadequate for ramjet combustors!

The reentry heat shield sees hotter local effective temperatures,  experiences lower surface pressures (because the atmosphere is so thin at entry peak heating altitudes),  and quite likely sees fluid shear forces along the heat shield surface that are on the same order as those of the ramjet combustor.  That last seems likely because both are subsonic (behind the bow shock for the capsule,  with higher sound speeds but lower densities). 

This author ran some experimental ablative candidates through short-burn,  full-scale tests in a combustor of the size for a ramjet replacement of the AIM-120 AMRAAM motor.  In the process of understanding the results,  he identified some 5 key issues to consider,  as are indicated by notes in red in Figure 1 below(All figures are at the end of this article.)  These issues were porosity for gas release,  the polymer pyrolysis temperature,  the “glue” effect of viscous melt materials,  the “reinforcing aggregate” properties of particulate solids,  and the reinforcing effects of fibers reaching into (or within) the char layer.

The baseline ramjet insulator,  Dow Corning’s DC 93-104,  did the best,  as expected.  The shortfalls of the experimental alternatives were understood,  once those issues were all identified.  These issues were all addressed in the formulation of the DC 93-104 (as indicated by the blue notes),  but were not all addressed in the other materials.  Those included a Japanese “equivalent” to DC 93-104,  and two pre-preg cloth layups.

These were short-burn tests,  all under 1 minute long.  It was already known that many ramjet applications needed longer burn times than that,  but that thicker layers of the ablative were simply not a design option,  because of the enclosed volume reductions.  The solution to the burn time problem came from “in-house”,  not Dow Corning,  and is illustrated in Figure 2.  As used in the 20-inch diameter ASALM-PTV combustor at the same liner thickness,  the retention ribbons held the char in place as an insulator,  for up to 15 minute burns!  While not as “good” an insulator as the virgin material,  the retained char was “good enough” to essentially achieve acceptable steady-state results in ground tests and in flight tests!

That kinked-ribbon retention feature was not included in any of the experimental insulation tests discussed here,  primarily because all the burn times were under 1 minute!  Not being present in these tests,  it cannot obscure or impact the fundamental ablation phenomena behind the results obtained!  Furthermore,  the two pre-preg cloth alternatives had to be wrapped onto an inflatable-bladder mandrel for installation,  more like rocket motor insulations.  They could not use the kinked-ribbon retention feature anyway!  The hope was that the cloth fabric would provide enough retention.  But it did not.

Applying This Knowledge to Ramjet Combustors

The designer must deal with all 5 of the issues in the ramjet environment,  but only 1 of the 5 issues actually dominated the picture,  as indicated by the gold stars in Figure 3.  This dominant issue proved to be randomly-oriented high-temperature-capable fibers tying the char to the virgin beneath.  The need for enough porosity to release the pyrolysis gases through the char was not much of an issue in the thin layer designs we were using.  In heat shields that are thickerit might be more important!  There is some impact of the presence (or not) of sticky,  viscous melt on the surface,  to prevent the more rapid erosion of small particles by the fluid shear.

If ramjet combustor design was all that we were considering,  then the loss of some char chunks as seen with the Japanese material,  might be countered either by the long-burn kinked-ribbon retention feature,  or by adjusting the formulation to include more carbon fiber,  or both.  Even so,  it provided useful 1 minute burn time,  even with some chunk loss.

Applying This Knowledge to Heat Shields

There is definitely overlap of the physics identified between the ramjet combustor and the heat shield applications!   While heat shields do not deal with all the same issues,  the porosity and char loss do indeed overlap a little.  But the need for radial fiber reinforcement would seem to dominate both applications,  preventing as it does the loss of chunks of char!  This is illustrated for ramjets in Figure 4.

Quite apparently the real mistake made with the Artemis-2 bonded-tile heat shield design,  was deleting the reinforcing hex from those bonded tiles!  And that says the most important thing NASA could do is to look for ways and means to put that reinforcing hex back into those very bonded tiles!  Preferably doing it without doing the labor-intensive and expensive hand-gunning of the Avcoat into each individual hex cell! 

So,  the main question here is:  can that really be done?

There Really Is a Practical Fix         

The answer is “yes”! 

But to even consider it,  one must avoid the trap of “either/or” thinking!  That trap considers only tiles without hex versus doing it hand-gunned completely like Apollo and Orion EFT-1.  That thinking trap is illustrated in Figure 5,  along with this author’s way out of that trap:  use an extrusion press to load all the cells in the hex with Avcoat,  all at once!

That way,  one still uses bonded tiles,  and avoids all the hand-gunning labor!  And the tiles with hex in them should cease shedding chunks of char,  no matter how the entry is flown,  skip or not!  Plus,  the high micro-balloon content that leads to low densities,  but also to high mix viscosity difficulties,  is something the extrusion press can handle.  All that is needed is the right tile mold tooling to hold the hex in place on the press.  That is just tooling design.  Plus,  the inherent human labor variability is eliminated.

Such a solution is unavailable to people hampered by the bad habit of “either/or” thinking.  The author gave this solution to NASA more than a year ago!  But they so very clearly did not use it,  or even contact him about it!

Final Comments

These ramjet results and their application to heat shields are as much “engineering art” as they are anything!  One will not find this in published reports or academic texts.  A lot of this is qualitative,  not quantitative,  and inherently so!  The difference between “engineering art” and “engineering science” is explained in Figure 6.  Note the large fraction of the necessary knowledge that is “art”,  especially in development work!

Note also that the engineering art is passed-on,  one-on-one,  on-the-job,  from the old hands to the “newbies”.  That is,  it is passed-on if,  and only if,  there are any old hands on the staff to do that teaching job!  Too many organizations prefer to hire only “newbies” that they can under-pay,  instead of retaining the “old hands”,  excusing this with “because they are too expensive”.  But it loses you half (or more) of your essential knowledge!

The current status is this:

It is too late to fix the Artemis-2 heat shield,  that rocket is on the pad to launch!

               Artemis-2 is forced to risk worse or deeper cratering with a crew

               Probability of a fatal burn-through is not zero !

               Had almost 2 years,  so why not?  Schedule and money,  same as Challenger!

Must fix the heat shields of Artemis-3-on,  to avoid a fatal failure,  sooner or later!

               Must not repeat Challenger mistake:  must value lives above schedule & money

               Trust results (even qualitative),  not the same sources that failed to predict cratering

What one has to learn and remember is this very harsh lessonThere is nothing as expensive as a dead crew!  Especially one dead from a bad management decision!  

In different ways,  this bad decision thing is really is the root cause of both the Challenger and the Columbia disasters!  “Avoid that mistake like plague” is the best advice this author can give you,  even if it means listening to outsiders,  or overcoming “not invented here” prejudice!  Please feel free contact him for more details.  He has test data and lots of photos from those old ramjet tests. 

Figure 1 – Related Experience with Ramjet Ablatives

Figure 2 – Raising Ramjet Burn Times with Thin Liners

Figure 3 – Only One of the Issues Dominated the Short-Burn Ramjet Tests

Figure 4 – There is Physics Overlap from Ramjet Liners to Heat Shields

Figure 5 – There Really Is a Practical “Fix”

Figure 6 – “Rocket Science” Really Is Not Just Science

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Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Fact Checking

Presented without comment.  It speaks for itself.


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