Original article written 6-23-2025:
It would seem likely that we are starting down the path to
another long Mideast war, with no clear
end in sight, despite what government
officials claim. Netanyahu started
this, desperately wanting Trump to join
in, despite his campaign pledge not
to, and he did! Israel did not have the means to hit the
deeply buried facilities, and we
did, which is why this has taken place.
Iran’s regime is a set of terrorists, masquerading as religious clerics, using a private army (the Revolutionary
Guard) to stay in power as a dictatorship,
and abusing religion to justify to their captive people the evils they
have long done. They have been sending
out terrorist proxy armies to do their dirty work for about 4 decades now. I think most people would have to agree with
that entire assessment.
There never was any realistic hope of negotiating an end to
the Iranian nuclear weapon program,
because we are dealing with terrorists,
not any sort of people who value logic or the safety of their country
and its people. The previous nuclear
agreement only slowed their pace, until
Trump abrogated it in his first term.
It accelerated since then.
They now have a stockpile of reportedly-60% enriched uranium, which was evacuated from the sites before
Trump bombed them!
So all the pieces for an Iranian atomic bomb are still in
place, despite the bombing, including the terrorist government so
desperate to have those weapons!
Contrary to the claims in the news reports, you do not have to have 90% enrichment to
build an atomic bomb! Anything over 50%
will work!
Although, for the
same yield, much smaller devices can be
built at 90% than 50%. This is no
secret, it’s been in public libraries
since I first read it there as a young boy,
more than 65 years ago.
Regime change in Iran was the one and only realistic hope of
actually putting a stop to the Iranian atomic bomb! And now Netanyahu and Trump have made that
very much harder to accomplish, turning
the Iranian people against us by bombing their country, and killing civilians in the process. Plus,
the regime’s leaders have now gone into hiding, so that we cannot easily take them out
anymore.
The right way to have done this would have been to support
the Iranian people to rise up and do their own regime change from within, without making enemies of them by bombing
their country! They would just need help
overcoming the Revolutionary Guard.
Which without a war going on,
actually could have been done with targeted air strikes.
The Iranian people tried insurrection once before, during Obama’s administration, but failed,
because we failed to aid them.
Now, such a scenario is no longer
possible. The only regime change now
possible will have to be imposed from outside,
with boots on the ground, and
against a civil population rallying to defend their government from foreign
attackers.
You can “thank” Netanyahu and Trump for that really ugly
prospect! Although, “blame” is a better word.
Any child who has passed grade school social studies (taught
up to standard, not just “to the test”)
could have predicted some, or even
all, of this. But apparently neither Netanyahu nor Trump
understood the likely results of their actions,
and apparently they still don’t.
That conclusion is based on what they have done, not anything either of them said. Remember,
you can always tell when a politician is lying: his lips are moving.
I think both our countries have the wrong governments. The Iranians are not the only ones in need of
regime change.
Update 6-25-2025: The cease fire between Iran and Israel seems
to be holding, after some initial
violations. I am surprised but pleased
to see it. It means maybe we have
avoided getting into another endless war,
at least for a little while.
Meanwhile,
intelligence reports are still quite sparse, but some seem to indicate that what I said
above is true: the Iranians managed to
move out some of their enriched uranium and related equipment before the attack
took place. That is a thing that
President Trump really hates to hear,
because it directly conflicts with his chest-thumping.
Long term, do not
expect this cease fire to lead to any sort of permanent peace! You are not dealing with normal political
people as Iran’s government. You are
dealing with fanatical terrorists! They
will say anything and do anything, that
lets them continue their evil activities,
including building nuclear weapons.
Their history over the last 4 decades says so.
The only permanent solution here was, is,
and always will be, regime change
in Iran! Unfortunately, that will henceforth be hellishly
difficult, now that there has been a
direct war to alienate the civil population.
Plus, the ruling mullahs and the
Revolutionary Guard private army that keeps them in power, both survive intact.
Photo from Maxar showing immediately-visible damage:
Other photos taken a day or two before the strike show a lot
of unusual roadway truck activity.
Presumably, that was truck
traffic evacuating the materials and equipment,
anticipating a coming strike.
Update 6-29-2025: The continuing variance among intelligence reports within and without the government very strongly suggests that the US bombing did great damage to Iran's nuclear weapon efforts, but did not "obliterate it", as Trump insists. In fact, he gets quite angry with those who disagree with him over this, clear evidence of his fragile but enormous ego.
I think the truth lies somewhere in between the extremes of the various assessments, including ALL of them, even the first one Trump claimed to be "leaked". We set them back by somewhere between a few to several (or many) months. I also rather think that those Maxar photos showing heavy truck traffic at the Fordow site just before the strike, indicate that the Iranians got at least some of their enriched uranium out, and hid it elsewhere. And maybe some centrifuges, too.
Bear in mind, please, that further enrichment beyond their 60% is not necessary to build a workable nuclear weapon, it's just that the weapon will be very large and heavy, much like our first generation devices were. If too heavy for their rockets, they could always deliver it as a suicide truck bomb. Think about that!
Regime change in Iran is the only long term solution for this threat, exactly as I said above in the article! And Trump and Netanyahu have made that very difficult indeed, by starting this war, cease fire or not. The Iranian people will now tend to rally behind their government against foreign attackers, despite its brutal history of oppressing them. That's just human tribal nature.
