Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Launch to Low Orbit Study

This study explores launch to low circular Earth orbit at low inclination.  It encompasses two different propellant combinations,  and 1-shot throwaway designs versus recoverable and reusable designs.  It considers both single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) and two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) configurations.  It includes a mixed-propellant TSTO as 1-shot and reusable.  This study used the new worksheet “both” added to the “stage studies.xlsx” spreadsheet.  See “Launch Vehicle Rough-Out”,  5-18-2026 on this site, for spreadsheet descriptions.

The two propellant combinations are oxygen-hydrogen (LOX-LH2) and oxygen-methane (LOX-LCH4).  These bound the performance problem,  be it SSTO or TSTO,  and regardless of whether 1-shot or reusable.  The mixed-propellant option looks at a LOX-LCH4 first stage,  and a LOX-LH2 second stage,  in the TSTO,  for both 1-shot and reusable designs.

This study is based on the performance levels of modest-technology engine designs,  be they sea level/ascent-capable,  or vacuum-capable.  They have lower max chamber pressures Pc,  lower pressure turndown ratios P-TDR,  and a cycle resulting in some turbo-pump bleed drive gas dumped overboard.  One can always do a little better with higher-technology versions of these same engines,  especially with full-flow cycles. 

The difference between 1-shot and reusable designs is two-fold:  (1) slightly-different design delta-vee (dV) requirements for reusable versus 1-shot,  and (2) significantly different stage inert fractions for reusable versus 1-shot. 

See Figure 1 for the basic mission concepts,  and Figure 2 for the orbital mechanics data.  All figures are at the end of this article. 

The engine performance analysis results for the four baseline engine types are included as Appendix A below.  These are easily re-scaleable to other sizes and thrust levels.  The thrust level used was 220,500 lb = 100 metric ton-force.  Areas and flow rates are proportional to thrust.  Dimensions are proportional to the square root of thrust.

The numbers used are summarized in Figure 3 below.  It covers both the SSTO and TSTO configurations.  The specific impulse (Isp) values came from the engine sizing analyses in the appendix.  They were reported to the nearest-second of Isp,  but without any rounding-up.  The inert fractions were simply presumed,  with modern 1-shot stages typically near 0.05 (5%).  The reusable stages must have higher inert fractions,  reflecting the inert additions for entry and descent aerodynamic control,  minimal landing legs or fittings,  and in the case of SSTO or TSTO 2nd stages,  heat shielding to survive full-speed entries.  These were simply presumed as educated guesses for this study.

There is one fundamental governing equation here,  regarding mass numbers:  the sum of the payload fraction,  inert fraction,  and propellant fraction,  must be 1.000!   The dV values for the reusables are larger by the presumed landing budgets.  All the other components of dV are shared by both 1-shot and reusable designs.  For this study,  all the gravity and drag losses are borne by the SSTO,  and by the TSTO 1st stage.  These were each presumed as 5% of perigee speed for the transfer ellipse as a measure of the orbital mechanical energy.

The basic bounding study results are given in Figure 4 below.  They comprise a data table for the SSTO configurations,  and plots for the TSTO configurations.  The SSTO table includes both 1-shot and reusable configurations,  and LOX-LH2 and LOX-LCH4 propellant combinations.  Mass ratio MR = exp(dV/Vex),  where Vex = 9.80667*Isp/1000.

The SSTO using LH2 as a 1-shot,  looks rather competitive in terms of payload fraction.  The SSTO using LCH4 as a 1-shot is technically feasible,  but has a very unattractive,  tiny payload fraction.  Neither of the SSTO reusables is technically feasible at all,  whether H2 or CH4,  with their negative payload fractions.

The all-H2 TSTO looks very attractive in terms of payload fraction as a 1-shot,  and is still quite competitive as a reusable.  The all-CH4 TSTO as a 1-shot,  is also feasible,  and more-or-less comparable in terms of payload fraction with the all-H2 reusable.  The all-CH4 reusable TSTO is mostly technically feasible except at the lowest staging velocities,   but it is not very competitive in terms of payload fraction.

Those TSTO results as bounds bring up the question of using H2 in one stage and CH4 in the other.  Only H2 in the 2nd stage and CH4 in the 1st stage makes any sense,  since the 1st stage Isp is lower,  but that 1st stage also shoulders a lower dV requirement.  That combination was run as both a 1-shot and a reusable,  with results given in Figure 5 below

6% mixed vs 8% all-H2 payload fraction is pretty comparable for the 1-shot TSTO,  and 3.5% mixed vs 5% all-H2 is pretty comparable for the reusable TSTO.  The mixed results are closer to the upper-bound all-H2 results than the lower-bound all-CH4 results,  whether you look at 1-shot or reusable.  What you “buy” with that slight drop with mixed,  is a smaller 1st stage-as-LCH4 volume,  sitting on the launch pad.  The 2nd stage is the same H2 configuration,  either way.  The mixed-propellant reusable TSTO payload fraction is not as sensitive to staging V,  compared to all the other configurations here.  2 km/s is “typical”.

Conclusions and Caveats 

The highest payload fractions are 1-shot (not surprisingly).  The “best” TSTO 1-shot payload fractions are all-H2 at 8+%,  with mixed 1-shot not very far behind at ~6.5%.  The all-CH4 TSTO 1-shot falls significantly short of these at about 4%.  The 1-shot H2 SSTO is also comparable at ~5.7%,  but the reusable H2 SSTO has essentially zero payload fraction.  Neither of the CH4 SSTO’s was even technically feasible at all.

The mixed reusable TSTO is almost as good in terms of payload fraction at ~3.5% as the reusable all-H2 TSTO at ~5%,  with reusables having much lower operating costs

The mixed reusable TSTO is less sensitive to staging V than the rest,  and it would have the lowest stage 1 volume sitting on the launch pad. 

Caveat:  inert fractions were presumed as educated-guess values,  and no inert buildup analyses were done to verify those numbers!

Caveat:  no thrust requirements were determined for any of these stages,  no numbers of engines and their thrust levels were determined,  so there was no determination of dimensions,  and no determination of whether the engines would fit behind the stages! 

Additional Related Information

The author cross-plotted his results for the TSTO,  separated into two plots,  one for 1-shot designs and the other for all-reusable designs.  This was to determine the sensitivities to propellant selection,  but bear in mind that we are examining effects that are “down in the weeds” compared to engine Isp and stage inert fraction effects. 

The author ran one more design that was mixed-propellant with a methane stage 1 and a hydrogen stage 2.  The 1st stage was calculated as reusable,  with those dV,  Isp,  and inert fraction values,  while the 2nd stage was calculated as 1-shot,  with those dV,  Isp,  and inert fraction values. 

Like the both-stages-reusable case with mixed propellants,  overall payload fraction is well below the both-stages-1-shot values,  and very near the both-stages-reusable values.  However,  it exceeds the both-reusable only at rather high staging speeds,  and in any event would be more expensive to operate,  with its 1-shot 2nd stage.  Again,  this is “down in the weeds” compared to engine Isp and inert fraction effects.  See Appendix B below.

About the Author

The author had two 20-year careers,  the first in aerospace/defense new product development work,  and the second in mostly teaching,  with some civil engineering and aviation work thrown in.  The change was necessitated by the huge aerospace/defense workforce drawdown that took place shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union.  For most of these careers,  he had BS and MS degrees in aerospace engineering.  He obtained a PhD in general engineering late in life.  He is now long-retired,  only doing some consulting now and then.  Contact him by email at gwj5886@gmail.com

Figure 1 – Basic Mission Concepts

Figure 2 – Orbital Mechanics Defines Most of the dV Requirements

Figure 3 --  The Numbers As-Used In This Study

Figure 4 – The Bounding Results for Both SSTO and TSTO/Both Stages Same Propellants

Figure 5 – Results for TSTO with LOX-H2 Stage 2,  and LOX-LCH4 Stage 1

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search code DDMMYYYY format:   19052026

search keywords:  launch,  space program

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Appendix A --  Rough-Sized Baseline Engines

These were two LOX-LH2 engines sized for ascent and for vacuum,  and two LOX-LCH4 engines sized for ascent and for vacuum.  These were sized from propellant combination c*,  using a specific heat ratio of 1.20,  and the appropriate nozzle throat to deliver a required thrust.  We are only interested in the specific impulse (Isp),  for this study.  Figures A-1 through A-4 below are the reported results for these sizing calculations. 

The ascent nozzles were sized to be on the verge of flow separation in the exit bell,  when operating at 80% of max Pc,  while testing at sea level.  That corresponds to an exit area ratio of 35.88:1,  when max Pc is the rather modest 2000 psia.

The vacuum nozzles were sized to an arbitrary exit area ratio of 150:1.

An 18-8-degree curved bell was presumed,  with throat discharge coefficient of 0.995. 

The engine cycle need not figure into any of this,  except as its dumped bleed fraction.  5% (0.05) was presumed for that.  The value of “Pc” here is that taken just before the contraction from chamber to throat.

Nozzle separation:  Psep/Pc = (1.5 * Pe/Pc)0.8333,  where Pa > Psep is separated.

Figure A-1 – Hydrogen Ascent Engine

Figure A-2 – Hydrogen Vacuum Engine

Figure A-3 – Methane Ascent Engine

Figure A-4 – Methane Vacuum Engine

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Appendix B – Related Information

Figure B-1 – Sensitivities to Propellants Selected in Stages,  For 1-Shot and For Reusable

Figure B-2 – Effects of 1-Shot Stage 2 with Reusable Stage 1 with Mixed Propellants

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Monday, May 18, 2026

Launch Vehicle Rough-Out

This author has tried several times to automate pencil-and-paper design analyses with spreadsheet software,  for the purpose of rough-sizing Earth-to-orbit launch vehicles,  be they 1 or 2 stage.  None of those were as successful and suitable as he would like,  until nowBear in mind that these spreadsheet results are not real performance estimates,  only bounding calculations!  The choice of stage inert mass fractions is entirely arbitrary at this level of analysis,  totally unrefined by any sort of inerts-buildup design activity.

In this particular case,  the spreadsheet file is an Excel spreadsheet file named “stage studies.xlsx”.  It has 3 worksheets within,  1 being for single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) scenarios,  the other 2 worksheets for two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) scenarios. 

The worksheet named “SSTO” creates plotted trends of payload mass fraction vs ascent-averaged specific impulse (Isp),  parametric upon values of vehicle inert mass fraction Winert/Wignition.  Metric units are presumed,  being metric tons (m.ton) for masses,  and speeds in kilometers per second (km/s).  Isp,  measured in seconds (s),  is not defined in terms of consistent units!  The corresponding effective exhaust velocity Vex is,  and is measured in km/s to match the other speeds.  See Figure 1

Figure 1 --  Image of the “SSTO” Worksheet

The plots respond automatically to changes in the yellow-highlighted user inputs for a spread of Isp values,  and a required velocity increment capability “rq dV”,  km/s.  That last  is the end of all burns speed upon reaching orbit,  with drag and gravity losses added to it,  plus a small budget to cover anything else.  The input Isp range covers whatever ascent-averaged Isp might obtain,  for any given propellant combination and engine technology.  Generally speaking,  the user need not change the Isp spread inputs as shown. 

For a given ascent-averaged Isp,  and a given vehicle inert fraction,  the corresponding payload fraction can be read right off the plot to about 2 significant figures! 

There is an aid for figuring vehicle weight statements,  located top right.  It has yellow-highlighted inputs for vehicle inert and payload fractions.  This takes two forms:  you know a known (yellow-highlighted) liftoff mass,  or you know a (yellow-highlighted) delivered payload mass.  It generates the correspond weight statement,  either way,  whichever is chosen.

To bottom right is an aid for determining the “rq dV” needed as an input for the main worksheet calculation.  There is a yellow-highlighted input for the actual speed at entry into orbit,  plus two yellow-highlighted inputs for the percentages of that speed,  that are the gravity and drag losses.  There is one other yellow-highlighted input for a small budget to cover anything else,  such as landing burns and rendezvous burns.   It sums the 4 components to create the “rq dV” value,  which is essentially the speed needed,  factored up to cover all the loss and budget items.  That is what is used for the rocket equation-based calculation for design mass ratio MR.

Figure 2 below shows a part of the “SSTO” worksheet and the plots it generates.  This image has been annotated to indicate where the appropriate bands of ascent-averaged Isp are,  corresponding to LOX-LCH4 and LOX-LH2 propulsion.  LOX is liquid oxygen.  LCH4 is liquid methane.  LH2 is liquid hydrogen. 

Note that there is no indicated feasibility (positive payload fraction) for inert fractions much above 5%.  That low fraction corresponds to an expendable stage design.  And note that the payload fraction with LOX-LCH4 is substantially less than that with LOX-LH2.   What that really says is that you actually can build an SSTO to reach low Earth orbitbut only as an expendableand it cannot be truly competitive unless you use LOX-LH2 propulsion.

Figure 3 below is an image of the “TSTO” worksheet,  which creates plots of payload fraction vs stage Isp,  parametric on stage inert fraction,  for both stages.  Top left are the yellow-highlighted user inputs,  which include orbit entry speed and staging speed,  plus the losses to be added to each stage’s effective dV requirement. The plots and the data are generated automatically from these inputs. 

The first stage must ascend through the atmosphere,  needing an ascent-averaged Isp for a sea level-capable engine design,  while the second stage makes its burns essentially exoatmospherically,  using a vacuum-capable engine.  

Figure 2 – Example Results of the “SSTO” Worksheet

Figure 3 – Image of the “TSTO” Worksheet

There are two plots,  one for each stage.  They are both plots of stage payload fraction vs a range of stage average Isp,  parametric on stage inert fraction. 

User instructions are given on the page.  There was NOT room to include stage and overall weight statements.  Those were included as a separate worksheet “TSTO wts”.

The example TSTO here is a crude approximation of the earlier block 1 or block 2 versions of SpaceX’s “Starship/Superheavy” vehicle,  that is still in experimental development flight test,  as of this writing.  Figure 4 is an image of a png file containing the two plots from the “TSTO” worksheet,  annotated to reflect the vehicle characteristics also sketched.  The old Windows “Paintbrush 2-D” software was used to generate this png file.

Figure 4 – Example Results of the “TSTO” Worksheet

For each stage,  the payload fraction is read from the plot at the appropriate Isp and inert fraction.  The best way to do this is to sketch-in the appropriate curve for the inert fraction.  Then read up from the appropriate Isp until you hit that inert curve.  Then read across left to the payload fraction scale,  to estimate the payload fraction.  Once you have the appropriate payload fraction for each stage (along with its inert fraction),  you can go to worksheet “TSTO wts” and run weight statements for each stage.

Figure 5 shows an image of the “TSTO wts” worksheet.  The user inputs are the yellow-highlighted items.  They are the payload and inert fractions for each of the two stages,  plus an estimate of the lift-off mass.  This worksheet creates no plots.  This worksheet also creates a sort of overall weight statement for the entire two-stage vehicle,  and computes its overall payload fraction,  that being delivered payload divided by liftoff mass.  User instructions are listed on the page.  If you know payload instead,  just iterate lift-off mass until you get the payload you desire.

Figure 5 – Image of the “TSTO wts” Worksheet

For the “Starship/Superheavy” example already shown in Figure 4 above,  the results are indicated just below in Figure 6.  That is an image of just the weight statement calculation blocks,  annotated.  It is amazing how close these results are,  to the actual test vehicles flown so far,  given just how crude these input data values are,  that were used here.

Figure 6 --  Example Results of the “TSTO wts” Worksheet

One could actually run a sort of sensitivity study with this worksheet and the “TSTO” worksheet together.  One would do this by varying the inert fraction somewhat,  and seeing how the rest of the results are affected.  You must do this on both worksheets together in sequence,  because inert fraction affects payload fraction,  with the propellant fraction set by Isp and required dV.  Note that 1 = payload fraction + inert fraction + propellant fraction.

Critical Issues NOT Addressed By This Level of Analysis

(#1) As indicated in the first paragraph,  stage inert fractions are merely assumed!  Verifying these requires more detailed design analysis of the inerts build-up for an actual vehicle design concept.  The more realistic the assumed values are,  the more realistic the results.

(#2) Ascent-averaged and vacuum Isp values are simply assumed in this analysis.  To verify those values,  one must rough out the actual nozzle designs,  and engine cycle characteristics,  for his propellant combination.  Better assumed values are better results.

(#3) In this analysis there is no attempt to size thrust requirements,  and determine the numbers of engines,  their thrust ratings,  and their turndown ratios,  for each stage.  If the engines will not fit behind the stage,  Isp and dV do not matter,  the design is infeasible.

How to Obtain this Spreadsheet File (“stage studies.xlsx”)

To obtain a copy of this spreadsheet,  either contact the author directly by email,  or go to the Mars Society’s New Mars forums,  for the links to a free download of this,  and many other related things.  That website is https://newmars.com/forums/.  Once there,  scroll down to the Acheron Labs section,  and select the “Interplanetary Transportation” topic.  Within that topic,  select the thread titled “orbital mechanics class traditional”.  The links to the online drop box are in those postings.  Those downloads are free!  This particular spreadsheet is one of the items stored under “lesson 8B”,  post 45.

About the Author

The author is well-qualified to create spreadsheets like this,  or those lessons on the forums,  and much more.  He obtained BS and MS degrees in aerospace engineering long ago at UT Austin,  and then went to work in the defense industry for 20 years,  doing mainly rocket and ramjet work,  mostly as pencil-and-paper engineering,  starting in the slide rule days (see Figure 7 below).  He even did some industrial launch vehicle work while still a graduate student.  His majors were aerodynamics,  thermodynamics,  and propulsion.  He obtained a terminal doctorate late in life,  in general engineering.

That aerospace/defense career was cut short by the enormous defense industry drawdown after the fall of the Soviet Union.  The author had to do something else for a living,  being thrown onto the job market along with nearly 2 million other defense engineers,  from an industry that could no longer employ any of them.

His second 20-year career was mostly teaching,  at all levels from public school to university.  This had some civil engineering and aviation work mixed in with the teaching.  He taught mathematics,  physics,  and engineering at a variety of institutions.  Those included Bosqueville and McGregor high schools,  Minnesota State University,  Baylor University,  Texas State Technical College,  and McLennan Community College.

The author is now long-retired.  He still builds and sells custom farm implements that he invented,  which kill prickly pear cactus out of farm and ranch pastures,  without pickup and disposal,  and without chemicals.  He also still occasionally consults in topics like ramjet propulsion.

Figure 7 --  Old-Time Engineering Design Tools

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Search keywords                                       launch, space program

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Update (same day) 5-18-2026:

The author has added another worksheet to the “stage studies.xlsx” spreadsheet file,  that does both SSTO point sizing and TSTO sizing versus staging velocity.  These are still only bounding calculations,  and are no better than the quality of the Isp and inert fraction values assumed. 

These TSTO trends with staging velocity are of interest toward design,  but bear in mind that these values are “down in the weeds” relative to the effects of both engine Isp values and stage inert fraction values!  There is still no assessment of stage thrust requirements,  or whether the engines would actually fit behind the stages. 

The user instructions for this added worksheet are on the worksheet.  As set up,  it analyzes multiple cases.  An overall view of this worksheet and the plots it automatically generates from these cases is given in Figure 8 below.   A more close-up view of the user-input portion of the worksheet is given in Figure 9 below,  which is more useful for dealing with the inputs.

Looking at Figure 9,  the top left yellow inputs are for SSTO,  as 1-shot and as reusable.   Those calculations are simpler,  and the results are highlighted blue in that same little block. 

Just below it are the inputs block for the TSTO cases versus stage velocity Vstg.  Vstg is not an input,  it is a wide range of values “built-in” to the worksheet.   Although,  they could be changed (those are highlighted green).  The cases themselves are the calculation blocks that stretch far to the right on the worksheet,   something more apparent in Figure 8. 

The bottom block of yellow inputs are the names and identifying values for the various cases this worksheet is set up to compute.  These are for the different possible stage propellant selections,  and whether the stage is reusable or not. 

The main inputs the user should be concerned with,  are the engine Isp values,  the stage inert fractions,  and the mission dV components that add up to stage dV requirements.  Thos dV values are currently set up for low circular orbit at 300 km altitude,  and low inclination. 

The first of the several calculation blocks that stretch to the right is where the user inputs for speeds,  losses,  and budgets are recombined into the 1-shot and the reusable stage dV values versus staging speed.  A plot of stage dV requirements versus staging speed is one of the plots generated automatically.     The other plots,  also generated automatically,  compare various cases in the format of overall payload fraction versus staging speed. 

Figure 8  --  Overall View of the Added Worksheet “Both”


Figure 9 --  More Closeup View of the Input Portion of the Added Worksheet “Both”

Watch this site for a future posting that deals with the results generated by this added worksheet. 

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Saturday, May 16, 2026

Trump China Trip Has Pitfall!

The following is the text of a column that I submitted to the Waco "Trib",  as a member of their board of contributors.  So far they have not chosen to use it.  However,  I thought the content important enough to post here,  so that at least some of the public could read it.  So here it is:

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President Trump is a transactional-type person,  and he demonstrably only understands other transactional-type people.  It’s always only about the deals to be made.  Which in part explains the raid into Venezuela,  and the start of war with Iran:  those on the other sides would not make any sort of deal with him,  and that angered him into impulsive actions. 

It also explains why the Iran war has dragged on without any resolution.  Those left in charge on the other side are mostly just the terrorist army (Revolutionary Guard),  who are anything but transactional.  For them,  there is no deal to be made.  They either stay in charge and inflict whatever harm they can on the rest of the world,  or they die. 

President Trump went to China to make trade deals.  That’s why he took American billionaires with him.  However,  China’s dictatorial leader Xi is a strategic thinker as well as transactional!  Trump is not a strategic thinker,  as his foreign affairs actions have proved. 

Xi wants the US to stop supporting Taiwan,  so that mainland China can take it over.  He is counting on Trump to abandon defense of Taiwan,  in order to get some sort of trade deal.

Xi is also very deceptive:  the public excuse here is that Taiwan is historically part of China,  and they “just want their territory back”.  That same excuse has been used by Xi’s predecessors all the way back to Mao Tse Tung. 

But in today’s world that excuse is simply no longer true:  if simple territory were the goal,  a massive military strike-from-a-distance,  conventional or nuclear,  would depopulate the island,  and they could just walk ashore and occupy it.  They have not already done that.  So,  today,  it is so very clearly not just about the territory!

Taiwan has over 90% of the entire world’s manufacturing industry for computer chips and electronic devices.  That is a huge industry,  worth hundreds of billions of dollars,  if not trillions!   That industry is what Xi in China wants,  not the island and its people.  And that is why they have not already launched an invasion.  They would have to defeat an armed Taiwan,  supported by the US to help with its defense,  but they must accomplish that without destroying that industry! 

If Xi’s China possessed that industry,  it would essentially be a monopoly supplier of chips and electronics devices to the rest of the world!  It could extort anything it wanted from everyone else!  Gaining that ability to extort whatever he wants,  is Xi’s strategic goal here. 

A weakened Taiwan without US support makes that possible!  And in Xi’s own words,  his military is to be ready to do that,  starting in 2027.

Xi also knows that Trump is a transactional thinker,  but not a strategic thinker!  He intends for Trump to offer abandoning the defense of Taiwan,  in order to get the trade deals he wants.  The odds actually favor Xi getting that outcome,  and he knows it!  Such is based on the past un-strategic things Trump has done:  stopping support for Ukraine against Putin’s Russia,  and alienating our European allies.

Trump simply cannot see past the immediate trade deal!  He cares not about the consequences for the US and the world,  should China acquire what would be essentially monopoly control over the availability of electronic chips and devices to the rest of the entire world,  including the US.  Which would be an economic catastrophe unlike any other!

Trump has more-than-amply demonstrated his lack of strategic thinking ability,  by not caring (and he said so,  publicly!) about the still-unfolding but horrific consequences of the current oil shortages upon everybody’s economies,  including the US.  Those are traceable directly to the interruption of about 20% of the world’s oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz,  due to his war.  That strait was open,  before he started that war!

So now you understand what the true looming pitfall is here,  with Trump’s trip to China along with the billionaires.  He is about to “give away the store” to Xi!  If that fails to happen on this trip,  it will still happen soon. 

And you,  not Trump,  will have to pay for it!  He’s too old and too rich to suffer any of the consequences.  Consequences that all of you and your children will have to bear,  for the rest of your lives!

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end of submitted article

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I want to take you one step further now.

You readers out there need to ask yourselves a critical question.  Is not weakening and destroying our alliances against our enemies treason of the aid and comfort type,  when those enemies could not do it for themselves?  

Your answer should help guide your vote in November,  despite the gross, blatant attempts to steal that election,  by gerrymandering.  Massive turnout might still overcome that.  But if it does not,  I predict you will never see another national election that is not a sham in a dictatorship imposed upon you.  And the secret terror-police force for it,  is already in place.   

Remember,  your Representatives must impeach,  and your Senators must convict,  to address that treason,  since the Supreme Court gave Trump immunity from prosecution,  for any crimes that he commits while he is in the White House!  Impeachment requires only a simple House majority,  but conviction requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate!  

Trump has already weaponized the Department of Justice into being his personal law outfit.  We have all already seen it.  No help there!

As for the candidates you might vote for,  do not listen to what they say!  Words are cheap,  and political words are usually lies.  Look only at what they have already done!  That is the only reliable guide as to what they might yet do.

If you find your present officials,  or your usual candidates lacking,  then vote for somebody else.  Anybody else!  You could not do worse,  but you might do better!

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search keywords:  bad government,  idiocy in politics, treason

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Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Plenty of Iran War Failures to Go Around!

The following is the text record of 3 recent messages I have sent to Senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz,  and Representative Pete Sessions.  They are my federal representation,  as of this date.  The record of those messages pretty much tells the tale here.

President Trump has embroiled us in an Iran war that has no “off ramp”,  and is beginning to crash the global economy (including ours),  simultaneous with the threat of rampant inflation!  That inflation is just barely getting started,  with high oil and fuel prices!  The price of everything else depends upon the fuel prices required to produce and transport it!  It is inevitable!  We have seen this before:  a recession with every oil price shock!  And inflation!

The House and Senate have done absolutely nothing to stop this war,  or to authorize its continuation!  They have therefore failed in their Constitutional duties,  for only the benefit of political party advantage!  My representation does not work for Donald Trump,  or the Republican party,  they are supposed to work for us!  But I see absolutely no evidence that they think they really work for us!

You have always had term limits within your grasp,  for as long as our elections have not been reduced to shams (and that appears to be coming quickly,  too,  with all the gerrymandering nonsense).  Vote for somebody else!  ANYBODY ELSE!  You could not do worse than what you have now!

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Trump’s Iran war                                                                      395 words

Trump lied about everything since the start of his Iran war,  including why,  and why now.  He lied about how thoroughly we destroyed their military capabilities,  painfully evident since,  while reduced,  they can still strike targets in the region,  and ships in the Strait of Hormuz. 

And Trump has been lying about the progress of the peace negotiations!  Evidently,  he did not even know who he was really dealing with!  Or why things he thinks he obtained from these talks get taken away,  repeatedly. 

Those officials at the table in Islamabad are not the de facto rulers of Iran now,  the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is!  They are a huge,  well-armed terrorist army of violent extremists,  recruited specifically because they are violent extremists!  They would die to the last man before stopping hostilities,  using the other proxy terrorist armies,  giving up their uranium for their terrorist bomb,  or relinquishing control over the Strait!

Trump does not understand people like that,  not at all.  And he (and Netanyahu) made the IRGC the de-facto rulers of Iran by killing off most of the clerics and many of the regular government officials in the first few days of this war!  And,  Trump has essentially united the people of Iran against us,  instead of helping them overthrow their regime,  which is what about half or more of them wanted.  We did it before,  to install the Shah,  and we should have been able to do that again.  But no!  Trump would never think that way! 

It appears to me that Trump started this war because he could not get the then-ruling clerics to deal with him.  Just like with Maduro in Venezuela.  And soon Cuba,  if and when Trump gets clear of his Iran debacle.  To get clear,  he must commit war crimes by deliberately bombing civilians and their infrastructure all across the country!

There is absolutely no excuse for that level of lying,  and that level of incompetence,  that we have seen out of Trump,  and nearly every appointed figure in his administration!  And you bloody well know that what I say is true!

Now go and do your sworn job:  get him and his appointees out of there,  so that we can have somebody at least barely competent in the White House!  You have absolutely no excuse not to do this,  for all the American people!

Verified all 3 got it                                                                   sent 4-19-2026

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Iran war                                                                                        225 words

I would remind you that you work for us,  your constituents!  You do NOT work for Donald Trump,  and you do NOT work for the Republican party!  They do not hire and fire you,  we constituents do!

This constituent is very angry,  and tired of all the lies,  blunders,  and illegalities associated with the conduct of the Iran war!  Many of us think that this was started by Trump outside of any Constitutional authority,  by attacking another country that did not overtly attack us first!  Even if that start is considered to be authorized,  the 60 day limit is now up,  so that Congress must either authorize its continuation,  or else put an end to it!  You have NO legal choice otherwise!

The Constitution and associated 1973 war powers act say NOT ONE WORD about deadline extensions for cease-fires.  And,  while the bombing is paused,  the naval blockade is active.  So this “cease fire” is hardly a full cessation of war activities!

What is going on right now is either another never-ending Middle East war,  or a defeat for the US by failing to achieve required objectives,  or both!  THAT UGLY SITUATION is intolerable!  As is your playing politics with this,  instead of dealing with it properly! 

Now,   get off your political duff and go do something constructive about this!  AND I DO MEAN NOW!

Verified all 3 got it                                                                   sent 5-1-2026

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Iran war                                                                                        325 words

I saw an interview on the PBS NewsHour website with right-winger Robert Kagan,  in which he says that it is likely the US will lose the Iran war,  because we will not obtain any of the things we want from Iran.  Those are an end to their nuclear weapon program,  and opening the Strait of Hormuz to free transit. 

Why is a loss likely?  Because the other (sometimes-restraining) officials were killed in the opening days of the war,  Iran is now a country ruled only by a terrorist army of violent extremists (the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps,  or IRGC),  who do not care how much the people of Iran might suffer.  No terrorists would!  They have already taken what resources they need.  And they are killing all who might oppose them. 

The only remaining way to achieve our goals is regime change in Iran,  which would require mounting an invasion of around half a million (or more) men,  to sweep all across that large country,  and root-out all the IRGC extremists!  And dispose of them!  Failing that,  terrorist-ruled Iran will NEVER stop trying to build a bomb,  and will NEVER AGAIN allow free commerce to transit the Strait,  because that is now the best weapon left to them.

Trump is not going to do that regime change mass invasion,  because he would be impeached,  and he would likely be brought up on war crimes,  as well.  So,  we lose! 

Trump’s demonstrated extreme incompetence in starting this war,  when the experts told him there was no reason for it yet!  And as long as Iran is ruled by a terrorist army,  that means oil shortages in perpetuity,  which in turn means a crashed global economy,  with simultaneous high inflation (which is already just barely starting). 

Stop supporting this incompetent fool!  Get him and his sycophant minions out of there!  Do it now!  Or else we constituents will (sooner or later) fire you! 

Sooner would be better!

Verified all 3 got it                                                                   sent 5-12-2026

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Al Jazeera photo taken early in the Iran war

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Search code DDMMYYYY format      12052026

Search keywords                        bad government,  idiocy in politics

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Friday, May 1, 2026

“Entry By Hand”

Why Know This Stuff?

(1        (1)    It provides a more efficient way to expend limited resources (see Figure 1).

(2) It is integral to brainstorming,  raising probability of success with multiple ideas.

(3) No organization can afford to do real design work on all candidates!

(4) However,  it requires “real” pencil-&-paper engineering training.

    (5) Those so-capable can spot bad results coming from computer codes! 

Figure 1 – Knowing “Pencil-and-Paper Engineering” Is the Efficient Way to Use Resources

The example here is making entry estimates that include both dynamics and heating.  The basic by-hand entry model is old,  simple stuff used for warhead entry work back in the early 1950’s.  It is usually attributed to H. Julian Allen,  although both he and A. J. Eggers published it in a NACA report,  once this method was declassified.  See Figure 2.

This kind of analysis is now best done in spreadsheet, for fast changes,  that automate any iterative explorations.  This analysis only handles straight-in entries:  no skips, no multi-pass trajectories.  It is fundamentally 2-D Cartesian,  so one must “wrap” the range-related results around the central body.

Figure 2 – How the Old Entry Model of Allen and Eggers Actually Works

 The inputs divide into 3 groups:  (1) the atmosphere scale-height density model and entry interface altitude,  (2) the entry speed and direction information,  and (3) the vehicle model.  That last includes both ballistic coefficient as well as an effective “nose” radius for heating estimates.  Ballistic coefficient requires mass and dimensional information,  plus an estimate of the very-nearly-constant hypersonic drag coefficient. 

Where to obtain such information for the inputs is also summarized in Figure 3.  The Justus and Braun reference has atmosphere models for using this kind of analysis at a variety of places around the solar system.  The author’s spreadsheet file has separate worksheets corresponding to the scale height models and entry interface altitudes for Earth,  Mars,  Titan,  and Venus,  all from Justus and Braun.   

The author also has another spreadsheet file that does the classical 2-body orbital mechanics of elliptical orbits.  This is the best kind of source for speed at entry interface.  Technically,  evaluating slopes at the entry interface location will get you the entry angle below local horizontal,  but a default guess of 2 degrees is rather representative for spacecraft items.  Some warheads come in steeper,  but if so,  usually slower,  too,  because they are fundamentally suborbital. 

Masses and dimensions for many craft can be found on the internet.  The author has found the old Hoerner “drag bible” reference a good source for drag coefficients. 

Figure 3 – Typical Sources of Data

Ballistic coefficient β = M/(CD A) is a measure of how well the vehicle penetrates through the air while decelerating.  If the hypersonic CD is a constant,  then the hypersonic beta will be constant,  which is what the Allen and Eggers model assumes.  That assumption is at least approximately true all the way down to about local Mach 3 for blunt shapes. 

The dimensions and shape enable calculating a volume corresponding to the outer shape envelope.  Dividing mass-at-entry by that volume gets you an “effective density” for the craft.  Not all craft will have the same “effective density”:  manned craft will compute lower because of the interior volumes required to be open space in which the astronauts can live.  Unmanned craft will typically have higher “effective densities”,  because things can be packed as tightly as possible. 

As indicated in Figure 4,  ballistic coefficient β ~ eff. density * dimension3/dimension2  = eff. density * dimension,  for any given shape,  since volume is proportional to dimension cubed,  while area is proportional to dimension squared.  That means for the same shape and density,  ballistic coefficient scales as the cube root of mass at entry.  The same shape corresponds to the same blockage area-basis drag coefficient.

Figure 4 – How Ballistic Coefficient Varies With Mass,  Density,  and Dimensions

The author’s entry analysis spreadsheet is depicted in Figure 5 below.  This particular one is for the Earth atmosphere model,  for an Apollo coming back from the moon.

Highlighted in yellow near the top of the worksheet are 3 groups of inputs.  Of these,  the user need only worry about 2!  The leftmost group has the atmosphere model,  and there is one worksheet for each different atmosphere model.  Currently,  there are worksheets for Earth,  Mars,  Titan,  and Venus.  The atmosphere model has ρ0 and hscale for the exponential density variation model,  plus the entry interface altitude.  It also has the upper and lower values of altitude,  between which the scale height density approximation best matches reality.  There is an input with the name of the world the worksheet models.

The center yellow input group is the user-input entry conditions:  speed at entry interface Vatm,  and angle below horizontal Ɵ.  There is an input denoting what the mission is about. 

The vehicle model is the rightmost yellow input group near the top.  It has values for ballistic coefficient β and the effective nose radius Rn.  There is also an input for the name of the vehicle. 

The heating model constants are also given for convection and for plasma radiation.  These are not yellow,  and are not user inputs.  They are as meant,  for each worksheet.

The main calculation block starts in the left column with a list of altitudes highlighted green,  that starts at its top with the input entry interface altitude.  The user may freely adjust that list to get points denser in distribution where speeds,  gees,  and heating rates are changing rapidly.  It ends with a yellow highlighted user input altitude to find exactly the altitude that corresponds to the intended end-of entry speed.  Mach 3 on Earth is typically right at 1.0 km/s.  Mach 3 on Mars is typically close to 0.7 km/s. 

Figure 5 – Appearance of the Author’s Entry Spreadsheet Worksheets 

Typical spreadsheet results  are shown in Figure 6 just below.  These plots are generated automatically by the worksheet.  The user can see where the points need to be denser when adjusting his altitudes list.  Then when done,  he can copy these plots and paste them into a “Paint 2-D” png file.  It is recommended to read values out of the worksheet calculation block,  and annotate the resulting plots with them,  once they are in the png file.  

Figure 6 – Image of Png File Containing Annotated Worksheet Plots

The convective and radiative heating models currently embodied in the spreadsheet file’s worksheets are illustrated in Figure 7 just below.  The original Allen and Eggers model had only the convective stagnation heating model.  The author found one for plasma sheath stagnation radiation heating in the SAE Aerospace Applied Thermodynamics Manual (1969),  modified it slightly,  and incorporated it into the spreadsheet.           

The figure also has the old entry engineer’s “rule of thumb” that says the effective temperature in degrees K,  of the plasma sheath near stagnation,  is numerically equal to vehicle speed in meters/second.  This is rather crude,  being only about 10% accurate,  but it is “in the ballpark”. 

The figure also includes the author’s wild guesses for how to rescale the stagnation heating rates to other locations on the vehicle.   There are regions of attached flow that feature severe flow “scrubbing” of the surface,  and separated-wake locations that do not.  The plasma radiation heating rescales differently than the convective heating.  

For regions where flow is still attached,  the plasma sheath is still crudely as close to the surface as it is at stagnation,  implying radiation heating rates still very near stagnation,  unlike convective.  In the wake,  the plasma sheath is remote,  but still “shining upon” the surfaces,  so the author does not rescale it down as far as he does the convective. 

Figure 7 – Stagnation Heating Models Currently In the Spreadsheet,  Plus Scaling Elsewhere

Complicating Factors:  tumble-home angle vs angle-of attack for capsule shapes             

Most capsule shapes have what is called a “tumble-home angle” of the lateral walls inward.  Flow usually accelerates sub-sonically,  radially outward behind the bow shock,  to a sonic line that is usually at the very rim of the heat shield.  Flow usually separates at the rim,  just downstream of the sonic line,   leaving the lateral walls in separated wake flow,  if the capsule flies straight with no angle of attack. 

A modest angle of attack to create a lateral lift force has been used for a long time (since Gemini in the 1960’s) to better “fine-tune” the entry trajectory.  One just rolls the capsule to point that lift vector in the desired direction.   This has the effect of reducing the angle between the lateral wall and the separated flow on the side where the stagnation point is closest to the rim.  On Apollo,  this had the effect of flow staying attached to the lateral wall (with higher heating) in a localized swatch of surface,  on that side.  This sort of thing is depicted in Figure 8 just below

The simple entry model does not handle such subtle differences,  it just pulls the capsule straight in,  along a straight line in Cartesian coordinates,  and it only estimates stagnation heating.  The user has to allow for this possibility,  when rescaling stagnation heating rates to lateral walls where flow might actually be attached!

Figure 8 – Effects of Modest Angle of Attack Upon Heating for Capsule-Type Shapes

As an example of this angle of attack effect,  consider the data the model predicts for Apollo coming back from the moon,  in Figure 6 above.  Stagnation convective was 144 W/cm2,  and radiative was 236 W/cm2,  for a stagnation total of 380 W/cm2.  Those numbers scale for attached flow locations to 48 W/cm2 convective,  and 236 W/cm2 radiative,  for a total of 284 W/cm2.  For separated wake zones,  those same numbers rescale to 14.4 W/cm2 convective,  78.7 W/cm2 radiative,  for a total of only 93.1 W/cm2

Note that the rim of the heat shield would definitely be a region of attached flow,  at total heating 284 W/cm2,  some 74.7% of that at the stagnation point!  At some angle of attack causing flow attachment for a swatch along only one lateral side,  the same high heating at something like 284 W/cm2 would exist!  The rest of the lateral sides are all in separated flow,  at a heating rate only in the neighborhood of 93.1 W/cm2,  only 24.5% of stagnation.

The lesson is quite clear:  lateral sides that might see attached flow at angle of attack,  require thicker heat protection than those that do not!  That increased thickness requirement is at least similar to the thickness near the rim of the base heat shield!

Max pressure on the heat shield is important for choice of an adequate material,  as some can be crushed.  You have a mass at entry,  and a blockage area,  in order to set up your calculation of ballistic coefficient β.  The entry model spreadsheet gives you an estimate of the max deceleration gees.  Mass * max gees * gc  equals the decelerating force F acting upon the vehicle.  Max deceleration occurs high enough up,  that backside pressures on the aft surfaces are essentially zero.  So,  the average pressure on the heat shield is simply that deceleration F divided by the blockage area.  The sonic pressure near the rim is roughly half the stagnation pressure,  so the average pressure is roughly ¾ of the stagnation pressure.  Reversing that leads to Pstagn = (4/3)*Pavg,  as indicated in Figure 9.  

Figure 9 – Approximate Stagnation Pressure Estimate

Heat shield materials have definite operating limits.  Ablatives are usually rated to max heating rates per unit area,  and max pressure exposure,  as shown in Figure 10 just below.   Transpiration surfaces would likely be similarly rated,  although that technology has yet to fly (but it might soon).  Refractories are usually rated somewhat differently,  being rated directly in terms of a max service temperature,  although there is still a max pressure rating.  The user should be aware that these max rating values recommended for ablatives will vary from source to source. 

Looking at the Apollo lunar return example above,  the exposures and the ratings for its Avcoat 5026-39 heat shield compare as follows:

Item…………….exposure…….rating…….remarks

Q/A, W/cm2…..380…………….600……….OK

Max P, atm……0.56……………0.50………barely not OK,  but it worked

Figure 10 – Max Rating Values for a Few Ablatives (Values in Other Sources Vary)

The variation in ratings from source to source can be seen comparing Avcoat 5026 in Figure 10 above to “Avcoat” for Apollo and Orion in Figure 11 just below.  Note particularly the manufacturing difference between Avcoat for Orion EFT-1 versus Orion as flown in Artemis.  Artemis leaves out the reinforcing hex,  to get bonded tiles instead of hand-gunned honeycomb cells.  Most such sources leave out sufficient clarifying details!

Figure 11 – Many Ablative Applications and Rating Data (from a different source)

Ratings for some refractory ceramic materials are shown in Figure 12.  The first 3 in the figure were used on the space shuttle.  The windward tiles were colored black to increase their thermal emissivity,  where heating was larger.  The leeward tiles were white where high emissivity was not required,  but solar reflectivity was required,  for passive thermal balance control. 

These were very low density aluminosilicate materials,  whose max service temperatures were not limited by melting,  but by a solid phase change causing shrinkage and fatal embrittlement.  That last is exactly why Coleman gasoline lantern mantles were so fragile!

The ceramic blankets were more sharply temperature limited,  and were only used on leeside surfaces immersed in separated flow.

Tufroc is not a single material,  but two layers of different ceramic materials mechanically coupled together.  These are usually set up as two-part tiles bonded to the surfaces they protect.  The outer surface layer is a denser,  more thermally conductive ceramic that is rated to a higher temperature than aluminosilicates,  and also quite a bit stronger than the shuttle tile material.  The inner layer is somewhat similar to shuttle tile,  being low density,  not as strong,  and very low thermal conductivity.  It is rated to a bit-higher temperature.

Figure 12 – Some Data on Refractory Ceramic Materials

Exposed metals are possible,  but only if the heating rate is low enough to permit a survivable equilibrium temperature,  with a hot strength that is still acceptable.  This was done on Mercury and Gemini,  which returned only from low circular Earth orbit where the heating rates were far lower.  This could not be done with Apollo,  which returned from the moon at very near escape speed,  with very much higher heating rates.  It is being done again by SpaceX with its “Starship” leeside surfaces,  but only in separated flow zones,  and only from low circular Earth orbit speeds (at least so far).  See Figure 13 for materials data.

Figure 13 – Some Data on Exposed Metals as Refractory Candidates

For ablatives,  refractories (ceramics and metals),  and transpiration-cooled designs,  the heat balance concepts,  as simplified,  are shown in Figure 14 below.  These are couched in terms of heat flux format,  that being heat flow rate per unit of exposed surface area.  That matches the output data from the entry spreadsheet model. 

For the ablative scenario,  there is both ablation and re-radiation cooling available to establish equilibrium,  but no adequate way to determine how much of each!  For the refractory scenario,  there is only re-radiation cooling,  and an equilibrium temperature is easily determined iteratively.  For the transpiration scenario,  equilibrium surface temperature is constrained by coolant vaporization at an acceptable coolant pressure.  Thus,  an actual coolant flow rate is determined from that acceptable temperature.

Bear in mind that transpiration cooling has yet to actually fly in space.  It was supposed to be investigated with the old X-20 “Dyna-Soar”,  that was cancelled without ever flying.  However,  such a thing may well fly soon.  There is at least one “new space” competitor that wants to use it,  and it was seriously considered by SpaceX,  before they went with very slow-ablative tiles on their “Starship”. 

Those notions lead directly to the guidance for spreadsheet-based heat balances depicted in Figure 15 below.  These would likely be self-generated as custom spreadsheets.  This author has none to offer at this time.  The ablatives scenario must have some other constraint in order to set the point on the regression rate vs equilibrium temperature trend.  

Figure 14 – How the Heat Fluxes Balance for the 3 Scenarios

Figure 15 – Guidance Toward Setting Up Spreadsheet Heat Balances for the 3 Scenarios

Mars entry is definitely different from Earth entry,  as shown in Figure 16 just below.  These are the cross-plotted results from a study run with these tools.  The author “made-up” a small probe,  with either a conical or a blunt heat shield,  and ran it for free direct entries off an interplanetary trajectory at Mars,  plus low circular Earth orbit entries,  and entries at near escape speed.  These data were combined with results from an earlier Apollo entry study that included entry from low circular orbit and near-escape returning from the moon. 

The 2 left-side plots in the figure basically show the effect of the very thin Mars atmosphere upon end-of-hypersonics altitude,  and upon estimated stagnation pressure on the heat shield.  The surface density on Mars is numerically the same as density near 35 km altitude at Earth.  The plot of stagnation total heating vs speed at peak heating shows no reliably-discernable trend,  except that peak heating speed is higher if entry interface speed is higher.  The Mars data fall right in the middle of the Earth data,  all for comparable entry speed,  since direct entry speed at Mars is about the same as low Earth orbit entry speed.  

Figure 16 – Comparison Cross-Plots for Earth vs Mars Entries

Doing these kinds of entry studies using pencil-and-paper engineering,  assisted by modern spreadsheet software,  is actually easier than most people think.  But the engineering analyst who does this must really know what he/she is doing!  This is very heavy into high-speed compressible flow analysis,  and very high-speed heat transfer techniques! 

Plus,  in order to function,  the engineering analyst must know an awful lot about materials,  their properties,  and their limitations! 

But,  there is an undiscussed advantage if the engineering analyst can really do this pencil-and-paper engineering stuff!  He/she will have enough experience from running such numbers for many projects,  to spot bad results coming from someone else’s code.  Computers process bad inputs and bad models into bad results,  as easily as they process good inputs and good models into good results.  They all look the same,  at first glance!

References as indicated above:

#1.  H. J. Allen and A. J. Eggers,  “A Study of the Motion and Aerodynamic Heating of Ballistic Missiles Entering the Earth’s Atmosphere at High Supersonic Speeds”,  NACA Technical Report 1381,  44th Annual Report of the NACA 1958,  Washington D.C. 1959. (unclassified) – this has the scale height atmosphere model and the relationship between altitude and velocity,  plus the convective stagnation heating correlation.

#2.  C. G. Justus and R. D. Braun,  “Atmospheric Environments for Entry,  Descent,  and Landing”,  MSFC-198,  June,  2007.  – this has the same Allen and Eggers entry model,  and scale height atmosphere model as Allen and Eggers,  but goes beyond just Earth.  Atmospheres for Mars,  Titan,  and Venus were obtained from here.

#3.  SAE,  “Aerospace Applied Thermodynamics Manual”,  1969.  (hardbound) – this had a simple plasma radiation heating model that was modified and added to the spreadsheet embodying the Allen and Eggers technique.

#4.  Sighard Hoerner,  “Fluid Dynamic Drag”,  self-published by the author,  1965.  – drag data for many shapes into the low hypersonic range are in this reference.

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Search code DDMMYYYY format     01052026

Search keywords   aerothermo,  space program

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PS:  This article actually comprises a pretty good user’s manual for my current version of the entry spreadsheet.  This spreadsheet is available from the New Mars forums as a free download,  or you can contact me directly by email.  Watch this site for two follow-up articles done by using this spreadsheet-based analysis technique. 

One will be a comparative re-entry study done for typical Mars probe heat shield shapes and an Apollo capsule shape,  all with ablative heat shields,  done at both Earth and Mars.  It will show how Mars entry is different,  with some indications as to why.

The other will be a heating distribution study for an Orion capsule doing free-entry returns from the moon.  Such will be useful for understanding what effects showed up on the Artemis-1 heat shield versus the Artemis-2 heat shield,  and the original Orion EFT-1 test flight’s heat shield.

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