Swatting at Proxies is Pointless

There has been a lot of violence and danger in the Middle East in recent decades.  Most,  but not quite all of it,  is summarized in Figure 1.  This article is about things since about 1980.  For earlier history,  see “Israel vs Hamas:  It Is Worse Than You Think”,  posted 29 December,  2023,  on this same site. 

I drew that figure on 22 January.  Since I drew the figure,  there has been an attack by Iranian proxies on a US base in Jordan,  killing 3 of our troops.  However,  that still fits the same pattern shown!

Note that Western nations in general,  and Israel in particular,  have been combatting the proxies listed since about 1980.  There is however a common thread to all of that listed evil,  and that common thread is shown in the figure to be Iran.

Figure 1 – A Summary of Where Most (But Not All) Middle Eastern Violence Really Comes From

It is my contention that Iran is ruled by a terroristic dictatorship,  masquerading as a democracy.  The ruling figures pose as religious mullahs to justify what they do,  but their actions clearly make that claim false.  They can over-rule anything the “elected” officials come up with,  making it a sham democracy.  This group is propped up in power by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard,  which is essentially their private army that ruthlessly suppresses domestic dissent.  My contention cannot be far from the truth!

In point of fact,  there is very little operational difference between this situation,  and 1933 Germany,  with Hitler propped up by his private army,  the brutal and ruthless SA. And we all know where that led!  I did generalize this to a warning about leader cults,  published 13 February 2020 as “Beware of Leader Cults” on this site.  Such can be political,  religious,  or both.  To find any of these quickly,  use the navigation on the left.  Click the year,  then the month,  then the title if need be.

This terrorist government in Iran funds,  supplies,  and commands a bunch of proxy terrorist armies in multiple places.  Those proxies are killing and wounding lots of people,  and even killing and wounding US troops,  as noted.  Iran already has cruise missiles and drones,  as well as an army,  a navy,  and an air force.  It is going for a nuclear weapon,  and has been for some time now.  Iran is even launching shipping attacks from within its own territory now,  so their vile behavior is escalating. 

Striking at proxies has proven ineffective, because the outfit giving the orders does not suffer any consequences!  This is indicated in Figure 2,  where Russia has been unsuccessful for 2 years now swatting at the West’s proxy,  the Ukrainians.  We in the West are not generally terrorist dictatorships,  not yet,  anyway.  We should care a lot more about our proxy than any dictatorship ever would,  and therefore we all should see to it that they win.  Or overtly help them to win,  if needed.

Economic sanctions against dictatorships have also proven ineffective,  because those do not hurt the dictator,  only those oppressed under him,  and he cares not that they suffer!  Our experiences with Iran,  Russia,  North Korea,  and now China,  all prove that thesis.  This is also indicated in the figure.

Figure 2 – What Does and Does Not Work,  Dealing With Proxies,  Plus a Suggestion

My firm opinion:  there will not be peace of any kind in the Middle East until Iran is dealt with effectively.  Basically,  that government must fall!  And none of us want to invade and occupy Iran,  we’ve already had enough of that nonsense with Afghanistan and Iraq.

As the suggestion indicates,  one uses a surprise strike to kill as many of the ruling mullahs as possible,  in one fell swoop.  After that,  one then conducts strikes from long range to destroy as many of the Revolutionary Guard’s facilities and assets as can be found.  But you do not invade!  And leave the general infrastructure alone.  Just hit the Revolutionary Guard stuff,  and some of the military assets.

With the Revolutionary Guard thus weakened,  and the ruling mullahs in disarray or dead,  there can be a successful popular uprising,  like the one about a decade or so ago,  that Mr. Obama failed to support.  The Iranian people are actually good folk who would just as soon not be our enemies!  This would give them a chance to be free and become our friends (once again). 

Dealing with our multiple adversaries:

We the West face 4 really bad adversaries:  Iran,  North Korea,  Russia,  and China.  Iran is now escalating from using all proxies into overt attacks,  and they are close to having nuclear weapons.  They really do need to be dealt with immediately.  I just told you how.

North Korea is the one most likely to fling a nuke right now,  with Iran not far behind.  The North Koreans don’t have very many nuclear weapons yet,  so we can afford some damage to take on Putin’s Russia next instead,  by forcing their utter defeat in,  and complete expulsion from,  Ukraine,  any which way we can!  Putin will be overthrown from within if that happens,  although there is no guarantee his successor won’t be just as evil as he is.  However,  it will take time for the new one to consolidate power,  during which time we can act.

Putin’s defeat and overthrow will tend to deter Xi’s China,  perhaps preventing World War 3 from starting over Taiwan in the Pacific.  His country’s mounting economic stress (from going to a war production footing during peacetime without much excuse other than starting a major war that the Chinese people do not want) can possibly induce his overthrow from within,  especially if that economy continues to falter into serious recession. 

With Russia and China out of the way,  North Korea can be easily taken down.  South Korea and Japan will be happy to help.  That one IS an invasion!  It results in a reunified Korea,  too.

Final related remarks:

Do not be fooled by my inclusion of Israel among the nations of the West.  In the current war with Hamas,  they have used tactics and weapons that bespeak of a total disregard of Palestinian lives,  well in excess above the appalling casualties one would have to expect,  from striking at your enemy through their human shield.   It may actually qualify as some sort of war crime.

That disregard of Palestinian lives is driven by the far-right political coalition that currently governs Israel:  they do not want a 2-state solution,  they apparently want instead for there to be no Palestinians left to have a state at all.  Very typical of authoritarian hard-liners!  The Israeli people need to change that government,  before it becomes a dictatorship.  Netanyahu trying to “reform” the Israeli judicial system was actually him trying to enable his staying in power permanently.  Israelis,  you have been warned!

As for the UN looking at war crimes charges against Israel:  why are you not also looking at Hamas?  Using human shields is a war crime,  as is attacking civilians!  And Hezbollah,  for dropping rockets on civilians for decades now.  What’s good for the goose is good for the gander!  Hypocrisy at the UN stinks!

As for everybody else:  look out for your own right-wing extremists!  They are among you!  They are invariably very authoritarian,  and they invariably want to “eliminate” (kill) their opposition.  If they have committed any crimes,  jail them for it!  Even if not,  you need to vote them out,  not in!  Or else you will have to revolt after they have established their dictatorships over you.  Doing it at the ballot box instead,  leaves a whole lot less mess to clean up!

And when I point my finger at you all,  my thumb is pointing back at me!  We face the same peril here in the US,  with multiple failed attempts (including an insurrection) to set up a right wing extremist dictatorship,  precisely because we voted an authoritarian in,  instead of out,  and he did not want to give up power when his term in office was over.  And now he wants another shot at it!  Surprise,  surprise!