Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Preliminary Evaluation of Artemis-2 Heat Shield

Not much credible information is yet available,  as only a handful of official NASA photos have been released.  There is one unofficial CBS news photo,  whose digitally-enhanced zoom-in,  fills-in some of the information gaps.  But I do my best with what there is!

Figure 1 depicts the expected re-entry flow and heating pattern for a lunar return by Orion,  which “flies” at angle-of-attack,  to generate a small lift force that is used to fine-tune the trajectory shape.  It does this by rolling about the wind vector,  to point the lift vector in the desired direction.  This was also done on Apollo,  and on the earlier Gemini missions.

Figure 1 – Expected Flow and Heating Pattern for an Orion Lunar Return

The Orion capsule has now flown 3 times as of this writing,  once before the Artemis program even existed!  All 3 were re-entries at near escape speed,  which is what a lunar return actually is!  That first test was called EFT-1,  launched using a Delta-IV rocket (now retired).  It had the heatshield fabricated from Avcoat,  hand-gunned into the cells of a fiberglass hex bonded to the capsule outer shell,  just like Apollo!  The other two Orion flights (so far to date) were launched with the SLS rocket,  and had cast and machined Avcoat tiles bonded to their outer shells,  unreinforced by any fiberglass hex!

Figure 2 below is a photo of what I believe to be the Orion flown on EFT-1.  I cannot vouch for the pedigree of this photo,  or that some of the char has not been deliberately removed for investigating the material beneath.  But the presence of the hex is clearly visible,  so this cannot be either the Artemis-1 or Artemis-2 Orion capsules!  If an Orion at all,  and I believe it is,  this has to be EFT-1! 

Note that a fair amount of ablation and erosion damage seems to be evident on the lateral side.  I cannot say for sure,  but this would appear to be the lateral side nearest the offset stagnation point,  where attached flow would feature heating comparable to that at the rim of the base heat shield.   The base heatshield itself is not visible in this view.

Figure 2 – Photo,  Pedigree Unknown,  of What is Thought to Be EFT-1

NASA changed the manufacture of the Orion capsule heat shield for Artemis,  retaining the Avcoat material,  but deleting the reinforcing hex,  to save time,  effort,  and money.  They built both the Artemis-1 and Artemis-2 heat shields this new way,  without waiting for the results of the uncrewed test flight that was Artemis-1 (and THAT was their fundamental mistake).  They were surprised by the unpredicted nature of the damage that Artemis-1 exhibited!  It shed both small and large chunks of char during re-entry,  leaving alarming craters in the heat shield!  Some of those are shown in Figure 3 below

This Artemis-1 flight was a skip re-entry with two heating episodes separated by a slight cooldown,  conducted at a very slightly shallower-than-normal angle,  compared to a straight-in re-entry.  Shallower reduces total heating a little,  but it does incur at least some risk of bouncing off the atmosphere like a skipped rock,  into an extended elliptical orbit,  whose period (of 5-10 days) exceeds the remaining crew life support duration! 

Flying the capsule at angle of attack is a way to control that skip effect.  Early in the re-entry,  you point the lift vector down,  to stop any skipping-off.  Late in the re-entry,  you point the lift vector up,  to keep the trajectory from “drooping” downward too soon.  

Figure 3 – The Official NASA Photo of the Artemis-1 Heat Shield,  After Recovery

After Artemis-1,  NASA spent nearly 2 years doing tests and calculations to “officially” convince itself that if they deleted the skip and came in slightly steeper (at higher heating),  that the alarming chunk-shedding would not occur!  This was based on the hypothesis that the pyrolysis gases produced during the second heating pulse could not percolate through the char layer easily enough,  and ended-up cracking it,  and blowing-off chunks of it,  with the obstructed gas pressure from beneath.

That hypothesis ignores the effects of fluid-scrubbing shear action in attached flow,  which would want to peel chunks off from between any cracks.  It also ignores any embrittlement and weakening of the charred material,  after cooling down some,  between the heating pulses.  Anyone who has ever dealt with the fragile mantles of a Coleman gasoline lantern,  would know exactly what embrittlement effect I am talking about,  and that it is quite real!

So,  NASA flew Artemis-2 crewed,  with the very same heat shield as Artemis-1,  just deleting the skip in favor of a slightly-steeper straight-in re-entry.  Their analyses said that would eliminate the chunk-shedding.  The real question is,  did that really work?

The few official photos released so far say that it did work.  However,  there is an unofficial photo that says “maybe not near as well as assumed”.  You judge for yourself. 

Figure 4 is an official photo taken during crew extraction from the capsule,  floating in the sea.  Bear in mind that you cannot see the capsule base heat shield at all in this view,  and you can only see the lateral side where the windows were located.  Those have to be away from the worst lateral heating,  to protect them from being destroyed by that heating.  

Figure 4 – Official NASA Photo of Artemis-2 During Crew Extraction

Figure 5 is an official NASA photo of mission commander Reid Wiseman pointing at some kind of an eroded crater in the lateral wall ablative insulation.  You can see the window behind his head,  and you can see there is no heavy charring (black) in this view.  This view is of the windows-side of the capsule,  where heating and its effects are greatly reduced by being in separated wake flow.  You can see nothing of the base heat shield at all,  or the more highly-heated opposite lateral side,  where flow was attached. 

Figure 5 – AI-Doctored Version of an Official NASA Photo of Mission Commander Reid Wiseman Pointing to Damage Spot

Figure 6 is an official NASA photo taken by a Navy diver,  of the base heat shield,  while the capsule was still in the water.   It looks rather pristine.  However,  you can see by the streaks that the stagnation point was just out of view,  top center left of photo.  The odd feature lower left is the mark or trace,  left on the heat shield from the flow about one of the tie-down pads. 

We see no craters from lost chunks of char in this view,  which supports the conclusion that NASA was right to delete the skip in the re-entry trajectory!  But we cannot see the region nearest the stagnation point,  where heating is higher,  and where fluid shear is higher.  That would be because the acceleration to sonic at the rim,  takes place over a much shorter distance.  That raises the surface shear forces that the heat shield material and its char layer “feel”. 

A suspicious person might say that only photos supporting NASA’s hypothesis have been released.  That is because we have not seen any photos of the offset stagnation region on the base heat shield,  or of the lateral wall on the side adjacent to that stagnation region (opposite the windows),  where heating is almost as high as on the base heat shield.  Know that eventuallyall the photos must be released,  in the report on their heat shield investigation.  That report must be publicly releasedBut it may be a year before we see it!

Figure 6 --  Official NASA Photo of Artemis-2 Heat Shield Taken by a Navy Diver

As I said above,  there is an unofficial photo now circulating,  that was taken by CBS News seconds before splashdown,  while the capsule was still hanging from its parachutes.  It was distant and somewhat blurry,  but it does show some sort of white mark near the heat shield rim. 

That white mark attracted a lot of attention,  and led to the digital enhancement of that photo,  and a digital zoom-in to examine that white mark more closely.  But that enhanced photo does indeed also show the near-stagnation region of the base heat shield,  and the lateral wall away from the windows,  where flow was attached,  and the heating much higher.  That original blurry CBS News photo is Figure 7 below,  and the zoomed-in enhancement is Figure 8 below

You cannot see very much in Figure 7,  but you can in Figure 8!  The white mark was left by the melting and destruction of one of the tie-down pads.  This is something NASA says was expected,  although it did not occur on Artemis-1,  as you can see in Figure 3 aboveIt does seem to have left an alarmingly-deep cavity eroded into the rim of the base heat shield!  Expected or not,  that cavity would appear to be of a depth comparable the thickness of the heat shield.  And I do find that alarming!

Figure 7 – Unofficial,  Blurry Photo Taken by CBS News Seconds Before Splashdown

What nobody has been talking about are the other things I see in Figure 8I have circled four places that I believe show where chunks of char were shed from the base heat shield.  These are smaller chunk-shed craters,  to be sure,  and scaling up from the limited view,  not anywhere near as numerous as those seen on Artemis-1!  Yet they are thereand the revised non-skip re-entry so very clearly did not entirely stop them from occurring!  Which simply says that something else was going on with that char chunk shedding,  besides pyrolysis gas percolation through the char! 

There’s one other circled spot,  and two arrows pointing to large locations,  on the base heat shield in Figure 8,   where I cannot tell what happened,  but I can see that some sort of damage is clearly there.  It will take better photos than this to evaluate those damages

What I see on the lateral side adjacent to the stagnation point are one unidentifiable small dark spot,  and two whitish bright spots of considerable size.  The two bright spots are clearly places where all the char was lost,  exposing bare metal to full heating!  And that metal looks distorted by that heating!  Very alarming indeed!

Those bright spots are not windows,  those are the bare metal of the outer capsule shell,  to which the Avcoat tiles were bonded!  Simple thermal insulation separates it from the inner metal shell,  which is the capsule crew cabin pressure vessel. 

Figure 8 – Digital Enhancement and Zoom-In of Unofficial CBS News Photo

There would seem to be four things going on here that affect the damages seennot just the one thing that NASA hypothesized.  They are:

#1. Pyrolysis gas percolating out against permeability resistance,  wanting to blow chunks off. (That is the NASA hypothesis.)

#2. Fluid surface shear forces wanting to peel chunks out from between cracks in the surface. 

#3. Char layer shrinking,  cracking,  and embrittlement upon cooldown,  between the heating pulses of a skip-type re-entry.  (Like the fragility of a gasoline lantern mantle.)

#4. The presence of the reinforcing hex actually ties the char layer tighter to the pyrolysis and virgin layers beneath,  and it also acts to limit the spread of cracks in the surface.

My conclusions about the rational things to do,   depend upon what response NASA takes to this Artemis-1 and -2 outcome:

#1. If NASA ever wants to resume flying skip-type re-entries,  then put the reinforcing hex back into the Avcoat!  PeriodThere actually is a way to do that,  without hand-gunning Avcoat into every hex cell like Apollo!

#2. Non-skip re-entries have higher peak heating.  The Avcoat tile thickness is insufficient at the attached-flow locations:  near the tie-down pads,  and on the lateral wall opposite the windows.  NASA must thicken it at those locations!

Avcoat tiles with reinforcing hex,  but without hand-gunning:

Avcoat is an epoxy-novolac polymer loaded with solids.  Those solids include some small amount of carbon fibers,  and a lot of tiny micro-balloons made of phenolic resin.  Higher micro-balloon content lowers density,  raises ablation rate,  and increases the porosity and permeability of the char layer (also decreasing its strength).  It also greatly increases the apparent uncured mix “viscosity”,  which is already extremely thixotropic (almost a solid). 

The Avcoat mixture is so thick,  that it is almost “crumbly” coming out of an air-powered caulking gun,  whose nozzle matches the size and shape of the hex cells.  The hex is a fiberglass cloth with a phenolic resin matrix.  The glass softens at a higher temperature (~ 900 F) than that at which the polymer starts to pyrolyze (~ 300 F),  which is why it is an effective char layer stiffener and retention aid.  The carbon fibers add a bit to those reinforcing effects.  Apollo and Orion EFT-1 used hex panels bonded to the outer shell,  into which cells the Avcoat was hand-gunned.  This was extremely labor-intensive!

For the Artemis-1 and Artemis-2 Orion capsules,  the Avcoat mixture was cast into blocks,  from which tiles were machined.  There was no reinforcing hex!  The bonds and gap fillers of those tiles are not in question herethose performed just fineThe lack of reinforcing hex is the question!

You can make tiles with hex in them,  but only if you can stop being bound by “either/or thinking”.  That would be either doing it the Apollo/Orion EFT-1 way,  or doing it the Artemis-1/-2 way.  However,  there is a third path!  Read on:

Put a chunk of the hex the size of the cast block you want to make,  into some tooling on the outlet of a plastics extrusion press.  Load your Avcoat mixture into the press,  and use that press to force it through all the cells in the hex,  all at once!  Remove the loaded-hex tooling from the press,  put the bottom and top on that tooling,  and cure that block of Avcoat that now contains the reinforcing hex!  Then,  machine your tiles from those blocks,  and bond them to the Orion outer shell,  the same way as in Artemis-1 and -2!  Tiles that are hex-reinforced,  but with NO hand-gunning!

I gave this idea to the NASA heat protection group in Houston well over a year ago,  as of this writing,  and again directly to the new NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman only a few weeks ago.  I was able to confirm (1) that the heat protection group got it,  and (2) that they thought I was right.  Nothing confirms that Isaacman ever saw my letter to him. 

But I never heard another word out of NASA about this alternative,  and NASA has not yet done anything like it.  So,  I must conclude:

Money and schedule clearly still outweigh crew’s lives for the decision-making NASA management levels.  And “not invented here” is still quite strong at NASA,  as well as its contractors.  Those two things are my real ongoing reservations about NASA!  And they have been,  ever since the first of two lost Space Shuttle crews!  Crews lost precisely because of those very same two management culture flaws!

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Search code DDMMYYYY format:     28042026

Search keywords:       aerothermo,  space program

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Closely-Related Postings:

About the Artemis-2 Mission” posted 31 March 2026

The updates to that article have these same photos in them,  just not as explicitly annotated as here.  And I have since added how the flow and heating patterns vary.  In near-escape Earth entry with a blunt heat shield,  plasma radiation heating is larger than convective heating,  and it decreases with distance from stagnation less rapidly.

Search code DDMMYYYY format      31032026

Search keywords         aerothermo,  launch,  radiation,  space program 

Ramjet Data Re:  Heat Shields” posted 1 March 2026

Shows how my old experiences with ablatives in solid rocket motors,  and especially ramjet combustors,  have strong overlap with the re-entry phenomena involved here.  Char retention by the layers below,  is a crucial key,  in both venues! 

Search code DDMMYYYY format      01032026

Search keywords         aerothermo,  ramjet,  space program

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