Saturday, June 8, 2019

Bullying Demands Resistance

A recent headline story recounts a near collision at sea between a Russian destroyer and a US guided missile cruiser.  The Americans claim the Russians overtook them and came too close,  forcing the American ship to reverse engines for an emergency slowdown.  The Russians claim the Americans suddenly swerved toward them,  so that the Americans were at fault.

This would be a “he said – she said” dispute fundamentally unresolvable on the face of it,  except for some surveillance photos taken of the incident.  The most telling such is reproduced here.  Under the international rules of the road at sea,  a ship being overtaken has the right of way,  so the overtaking vessel has the obligation to avoid. 






If you look at the ship’s wakes in the photo,  you can see what actually happened.  The ship on the left is the Russian destroyer,  the ship on the right with the obvious flat-face superstructure is the American guided missile cruiser.  Follow the cruiser’s wake back:  it is straight.  The Americans never changed course.  And they were indeed overtaken by the faster-moving Russian destroyer,  as the videos of the incident show,  plus its larger wake in this photo despite being similar in size.

Now follow the Russian destroyer’s wake back:  it is not straight.  The Russians clearly changed course toward the cruiser,  then adjusted back parallel at a dangerously-close separation.  In other words,  they made a rule-violating and very dangerous run on the Americans,  to try to intimidate them.  The Russian account of this incident is quite clearly a disgusting lie.

This is bullying behavior most probably done at the explicit direction of the dictator in charge of Russia:  Vladimir Putin.  He has a long and sordid history of this.  The previous-latest incident was Russian jets intercepting a US patrol plane over international waters,  and flying dangerously close while doing this. 

Bullies typically continue their intimidating behavior until they meet actual resistance,  or until they get bored and go looking elsewhere for new victims to intimidate.  Merely ducking out of the way is not actual resistance.  The one bullied must fight back at one level or another.  Some bullies require higher force levels of resistance than others,  but that is just the way it is.

I suggest that the US Navy has to do more than just maneuver its ships to avoid the collisions,  when the Russians try to intimidate them.  Before the ships get too close,  I recommend putting a shot across the bow of the offending vessel.  Be prepared to back that up with actual conflict,  but I suspect that would not be necessary. 

The bigger the caliber of the gun for this resistance,  the more effective it will be.  A hundred years of prior experience says that 5-inch is adequate on a destroyer,  8-inch would be better on a cruiser.  Resisting bullying intimidation is a compelling reason for US warships to have multiple large-caliber guns on their decks.  Too many do not.

The analog of this type of resistance for aircraft encounters applies to both US Naval and US Air Force aviation.  When the Russians show intimidating behavior toward patrol aircraft,  it would be wise to send a couple of escorting fighters,  just not right alongside the patrol plane.  They should be out of sight,  but able to close within a single handful of minutes,  once the intercepting Russian fighter gets detected inbound.

When the intercepting Russian fighter gets too close,  the American fighters suddenly arrive.  It’s not just getting between the Russian and the patrol plane,  resistance means firing some tracers from gun-equipped fighters,  as very-visible warning shots.  While the escort must be prepared for actual air-to-air combat,  that seems unlikely,  once the warning shots are seen.

This does mean the escorting fighters you send must be equipped with air-to-air dogfight guns,  and the bigger the better,  up to about 20 mm caliber.  This is exactly why combat aircraft equipped only with missiles are utter nonsense.  This is a lesson already learned in Vietnam,  and seemingly forgotten again in our latest fighter designs.

Show determined resistance,  and the bully will usually back down without a fight,  or at least not much of one.  That lesson applies to the schoolyard,  and to international affairs,  because nation states behave toward each other pretty much like grade school-age children.  Not just the Russians,  but also the Chinese,  the North Koreans,  and the Iranians have been displaying significant bullying behaviors of late. 

It is not just our presence,  but our actual resistance,  that is the effective deterrent for this.

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Update 6-15-19:


Similarities and differences between the two ships:



Note:  a long ton is 2200 lb,  compared to the standard (short) ton of 2000 lb.  A long ton at 2200 lb is very similar to,  but not identical to,  a metric ton at 2205 lb.

Measures of the disturbance created by the ship moving through the water might include the displacement (weight),  and the size of the submerged cross section plowing through the water (beam x draft).  The Chancellorsville’s displacement is factor 1.23 larger than the Admiral Vinogradov’s displacement.  The cross section of the Chancellorsville is factor 1.48 larger than the cross section of the Admiral Vinogradov. 

Both measures point to a larger wake created by the larger disturbance of the Chancellorsville,  if both ships were moving at the same speed.  For the Admiral Vinogradov to be producing the bigger wake conclusively means it was traveling much faster.  That clearly points to it overtaking the Chancellorsville.

The Admiral Vinogradov has changes in the direction of its wake while the Chancellorsville does not.  Therefore,  it is conclusive that the Admiral Vinogradov not only overtook the Chancellorsville,  but also maneuvered toward it,  to a dangerously close pass.

Otherwise,  in general dimension,  the ships are rather comparable,  and comparable in terms of gun armament.  Both pack a large quantity and variety of missiles,  not listed in the data above.

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Update 6-16-19:


“Fighter aircraft with guns” question.  Answer:  500+ rounds of 20+ mm required,  based on history.  Something like 1000+ rounds is desired.  The following data explain why. This list is representative,  not comprehensive.  So don’t be upset if I left out your favorite airplane. 

F-35:  USAF -A model carries internal GAU-22 25 mm cannon,  but only 182 rounds;  intended only for air-to-ground fire.  USMC -B and USN -C models have no internal gun,  but can carry the GAU-22 25 mm gun in a gun pod.  Again,  intended for air-to-ground fire only. No combat yet.

F-22: USAF top fighter.  No guns at all!  Some combat Middle East,  mostly in bombing role.

F-15:  Old USAF top fighter headed for retirement.  Vulcan 61 20 mm gatling gun,  940 rounds,  combat Middle East & Balkans.

F-16:  Long-serving USAF lightweight fighter,  may be headed for retirement.  Vulcan 61 20 mm gatling gun,  511 rounds,  combat Middle East & Balkans.

FA-18:  USN top fighter/bomber.  Vulcan 61 20 mm gatling gun,  578 rounds,  combat Middle East & Balkans.

F-14:  Former USN top fighter.  Vulcan 61 20 mm gatling gun,  675 rounds (no longer in service),  combat Middle East.

F-4:  Retired USAF/USN/USMC interceptor,  fighter,  and fighter/bomber.  Early models A-D had no guns at all,  F-4E had an internal Vulcan 61 20 mm gatling gun with 640 rounds;  earlier models were retrofitted with gun pods carrying the same weapon.  (no longer in service)  combat in Vietnam which showed the need for guns.

F-100:  Retired USAF interceptor/fighter used as bomber as well.  Four 20 mm cannon with 200 rounds per gun (800 rounds total) (long-retired),  combat Vietnam.

F-8:  Retired USN top fighter of 30 years’ service.  Four 20 mm guns,  125 rounds per gun (total 500)  (long-retired),  combat Vietnam.

F-86:  Long-retired top USAF fighter.  Six Browning 50-caliber machine guns,  1800 rounds total  (long retired),  combat Korea.

If you look at the long-retired aircraft (F-86,  F-8,  F-100,  and F-4),  you can easily see the mistake made introducing the F-4 without guns.  It had to be retrofitted with a pod-mounted gun in Vietnam to cope with the Migs,  until the advent of the F-4E model.

This lesson stayed “learned” through the F-15,  F-16,  F-14,  and FA-18,  but once again seems to have been “unlearned” with the F-22 and the F-35.   On the naval side,  the F-14 is retired,  but the FA-18 still in service.  On the air force side,  F-15 and F-16 are still in service but planned for retirement,  and the number of F-22’s is limited,  and they have no guns.  The F-35 is entering service,  but with “teething troubles” as reported in the news,  and without enough rounds for effective air-to-air gun combat.

The net result is that the air force has only the F-15 (approaching retirement) as an effective potential escort for patrol planes menaced by Russian fighters approaching dangerously close.  To reach practical escort range,  it would have to carry more drop tanks of fuel than missiles.  Neither the F-22 nor the F-35 can do this job,  and the small F-16 (also headed for retirement) just won’t have the range,  even with drop tanks.  

The navy has the FA-18 capable of doing the escort job,  but only when carrying more drop tanks of fuel than missiles.  Naval fighters typically have shorter range than air force fighters.

Net outcome:  we are not equipped with the long-range escort fighters able to do the job of resisting the “bullying” of our patrol aircraft.  They will have to self-resist,  and none is equipped to do that.  They carry no guns or missiles,  being converted airliners.  (The P-3 Orion is a converted Lockheed Electra-2 4-engine turboprop airliner  from the early 1950’s,  the P-8 Poseidon is a converted Boeing 737 2-engine jet airliner from the late 1960’s.)

Thursday, May 23, 2019

Mueller Report

Update 5-29-19 see update appended below at end.
Update 6-7-19 see update appended below at end.

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I have now read through both volumes of Mueller’s report.  I still have a lot of thinking to do about this.  What follows is only first impressions. 

You can get a good sense of the findings by reading only the executive summaries of Volumes 1 and 2.  You will get lost in the details reading the full report,  this being serious legal analysis.  But,  on the other hand,  you learn a whole lot more. 

But Mueller did his job,  and he did it right.  If you read the whole thing,  you will see that,  very clearly. “Mueller and 17 angry democrats” is an egregious lie by Trump.  This was no “witch hunt”.  He is very seriously misleading the public for political gain,  pure and simple.

Volume 1 dealt with Russian interference in the 2016 elections.  Mueller concludes such did occur,  and he details exactly how,  and who did it.  As part of that,  he documented an enormous number of alarming connections between Trump,  his business,  and his campaign,  with Russia,  to include lying to the public,  and lying to Congress (a crime),  by various persons about those connections. 

Things other than conspiracy with Russia (and obstruction of justice) being outside his purview,  Mueller did not pursue those troubling Russian connections any further than documenting them.  His purview was whether Trump and his people conspired (a very definite legal term) with the Russians,  to illegally influence the 2016 election (foreigners are not permitted to participate in any way). 

Mueller concluded there was no actual conspiracy despite all the other connections to Russia.  But it is what he documented in the way of those connections that is so alarming:  they make the President vulnerable to Russian influence.  

That is a matter for others to resolve,  and the most informative sources will be Trump’s financial and tax records.  His publicly-known extreme resistance to disclosing them is very,  very disturbing,  therefore.  The risk here is Trump behavior that might actually have strayed into something treasonous.  Mueller does not go there.  Others should,  in my opinion.

Volume 2 dealt with obstruction of justice,  particularly about a dozen counts or cases,  to include attempting influence on the trials of associates,  and attempts to illegally remove Mueller.  There is a huge mountain of evidence in Volume 2 to support the notion that at least some (if not all) of those cases really are obstruction of justice on the part of Trump,  or those associated with him. 

It is the grey area of whether it was Trump himself,  or his associates,  that precludes a final conclusion in most of these cases (the decision of actually whom to prosecute).

Mueller includes a very detailed legal analysis of what might be prosecutable and what might not,  tending toward prosecution of President Trump on the counts,  but he does not recommend actual indictments for some legal-technical reasons I do not yet fully comprehend,  although the whom-to-prosecute question is the biggest part of that. 

Mueller presents a convincing argument that the President’s Article 2 Constitutional powers do not constitute a defense.  That would have definite application to impeachment inquiries or proceedings.  That I do understand. 

But he very specifically does NOT exonerate the President!  In more than one place in his report.  Instead,  he leaves the matter to others to decide,  while providing some very convincing evidence that obstruction crimes actually occurred.

My reading and initial interpretation of the executive summary to Volume 2 includes what I interpret as two calls to Congress to impeach,  using the evidence he uncovered,  for obstruction of justice.  That is my initial impression,  and I definitely noticed this was NOT in AG Barr’s summary. 

I might yet change my mind about impeachability for obstruction of justice after reflection,  but right now,  I don’t think so.

Countering that,  anybody reading the full report will understand that some sort of obstruction really did occur (and according to recent news reports,  is still occurring).  I am quite disappointed in AG Barr’s summary which leaves all this out,  explaining quite understandably why Mueller and his team are unhappy with Barr’s summary. 

Barr does have a history of supporting the “imperial presidency” notion.  With this President,  I think that is a really bad choice,  but that is just my personal opinion.

For those interested,  I saw nothing in Mueller’s report that confirms or denies the Steele dossier on Trump.  It was mentioned once or twice,  but not used in Mueller’s analysis,  or included in his data.  Other sources I have seen largely (but not totally) confirm it. 

Personally,  I find the strong links between Trump and Russia far more disturbing than the obstruction-of-justice counts,  serious crimes that they are,  in and of themselves.  My best guess (and only a guess it is) is that other investigations into Trump finances and tax returns will reveal disturbingly-strong connections between the Trump Organization and Russia,  in that Russian bank money is Trump’s primary source of investment funds and income,  and has been,  for some years now.

That makes him vulnerable to Putin’s wishes,  since the same Russian banks keep Putin in power,  and by that,  themselves.  It would certainly explain how Trump consistently believes Putin’s claims over the findings of the US intelligence community,  and why he has consistently acted to degrade our relations with our allies in favor of “better relations with Russia”. 

That’s just my opinion.  None of that is in Mueller’s report. But it would be treason of the “aid and comfort” type.   And that really is impeachable.

My best recommendation to the House is to pursue the financial tax records via the courts,  until stymied.  Then use the “impeachment-related proceedings” to force other revelations.  Somewhere along the line,  something egregious enough will be uncovered to convince the GOP senators to throw Trump “under the bus”.  They will do this to avoid being voted out when their re-elections come up.

Until that happens,  actual articles of impeachment from the House are a fool’s errand,  because the Senate as it is now,  will not convict,  because its GOP members still demonstrably value party advantage above good of the country. 

Speed is important:  if this egregious revelation (or revelations) occurs before the 2020 election,  then Trump’s potential re-election is defeated,  regardless of whether there is an impeachment trial in the Senate.

That’s all for now.  I need to think about this a while.  These are my first impressions.  Whether my opinions might change is yet to be seen.  But right now,  I think not.

GW

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Update 5-29-19 Mueller's news conference this date pretty much confirms what I thought I understood from his report (as released in redacted form),  with one exception.  Apparently the main reason he did not issue indictments was DOJ policy not to indict a sitting president.  That's a bigger role for that issue than I read in the report for myself.

Since Mueller's news conference pretty much confirmed everything else I thought I understood from reading his report,  I see no reason to change my interpretations or conclusions,  except this:  crimes were committed,  and indictments would have been issued for them,  had not DOJ policy not to indict a sitting president precluded that.  

My conclusion,  that Mueller's report is essentially a call for Congress to impeach,  stands.  I see no reason to change that conclusion.  I do see reason to amplify it. 

The problem with impeachment proceedings in the House is that the Senate as it is right now will not convict.  Not until something so egregious surfaces that the GOP senators would be willing to throw Trump "under the bus" for it,  lest they risk re-election defeat.  That has not yet happened.

Therefore,  my advice to Democrats still stands:  do not rush to issue articles of impeachment.  Use the courts,  and the power of "impeachment-related proceedings",  to uncover that additional egregious thing which will get GOP senators to desert Trump and Mitch McConnell.   Trust me,  it WILL surface!!! ***

My advice to Republicans:  you need to prioritize the good of the country above party advantage.  This is something you (collectively) have been failing to do.  Look carefully at what Trump has done.  It is in the Mueller report,  and more will be uncovered from his financial records and federal income tax returns.  Then vote for the good of the country (above all!!!) when the impeachment happens.  And it will.

*** It is my opinion (and only my opinion !!!) that these financial and tax records will reveal,  that in recent years,  Trump's main sources of investment capital and business income derive from Russian bank sources.  This is because western banks want nothing more to do with him,  after 6 bankruptcies of record.  If Trump's living derives from Russian sources,  then inherently he is vulnerable to control by Putin and the Russian banks.  That is utterly intolerable in a US President.

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Update 6-7-19:  We are close enough to the 2020 election that I think it doesn't matter anymore whether impeachment or a re-election loss happens,  as long as the re-election loss outcome includes criminal prosecution.

To that end,  my recommendation to the Democrats still stands:  uncover that egregious thing or things that will induce GOP senators to desert Trump and McConnell.  Use it either for impeachment,  or for a campaign issue that will cause a Trump loss in the election.  That will be a judgement call as you continue investigating.

As a confirming note:  PBS Newshour has been doing an in-depth reveal of the Mueller report findings as a multi-part item on their broadcast.  It largely agrees with what I have documented here in my analysis.

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Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Pivot-Wing Spaceplane Concept Feasibility


In an earlier posting,  I described a unique folding-wing spaceplane idea and explored its feasibility.  This is described in ref.1 (list at end of article).  The fundamental idea was to move the aerosurfaces into the wake while entering the atmosphere from orbit dead-broadside to simplify the aerodynamics and reduce the number of possible aeroheating failure modes.  By folding the aerosurfaces that way,  the dead-broadside forces that would rip the aerosurfaces off,  could be avoided.  Once subsonic,  these surfaces could more easily be deployed for an airplane-like landing.

This posting describes another way to accomplish the very same goal,  one that avoids the need for complicated fairings and entry-capable streamlining design for the folding-wing hinge joint. The folding butterfly (V) tail is not a problem,  and is retained,  being mounted to the dorsal surface already in the entry wake zone.  Instead of folding wings,  this revised concept uses a pivoting wing,  rather similar to the Russian “Baikal” missile booster seen at multiple recent airshows. 

This article presents nothing but a design concept feasibility analysis.  Only the gross overall dimensions and characteristics get determined.  I look at a ballpark weight statement,  best-estimate wing loading,  and  estimated entry gees and heating for that,  as well as an estimated landing speed.  Not much more.

Concept

Figure 1 depicts the vehicle design concept in cartoon form (all figures at end of article).  Figure 2 depicts how this concept might be operated in flying practice.  The craft is a small spaceplane launched with stowed wing using an appropriate two-stage rocket booster.  The entire delta-vee to low Earth orbit (LEO) comes from the booster rocket.  The spaceplane,  to be useful for real missions,  must arrive with significant maneuvering delta-vee (for plane changes,  transfer orbits,  rendezvous,  and the like,  plus including its final small de-orbit burn).

Figure 1 shows the vehicle to be a high-wing airplane with a butterfly tail and a non-circular cross section.  The main heat shield is located on a nearly (but not exactly) flat belly surface.  The figure says its radius of curvature should be about 1.5 times the length (or more) in order to reduce equilibrium stagnation surface temperatures enough to enable use of a low-density alumino-silicate ceramic material.  The actual radius turned out to be 1.55 times the length,  but could just as easily be twice the length.  The noncircular cross-section shape is similar to that of the old Mercury and Gemini capsules,  so that from orbit,  highly-emissive reradiating metal “backshell” surfaces can be used,  hidden from hypersonic scrubbing in the wake,  and with negligible plasma radiation heating effects,  at only 7-8 km/s entry speeds.  The same applies to the stowed wing,  but perhaps not the V-tail.

The cargo bay is near the middle,  with the center of gravity and the wing pivot,  so that changes in payload require minimal trim adjustments. Propellant tankage is disposed ahead and behind this cargo bay.  These can be simple tanks within the mold line,  with some insulation to protect them from the hot reradiating skin.  The propellants are room-temperature storables,  most likely monomethyl hydrazine (MMH),  and nitrogen tetroxide (NTO),  so that the same propellant supply serves both the main engine and the attitude thrusters,  with hypergolic ignition.  Simple is more reliable.

The cockpit is located forward,  and is the only pressurized space,  sized for a crew of two.  Since this craft returns to land while flying like an airplane,   having a second pilot to support the first serves safety and reliability well,  just as in airliner flying.  It is likely this craft will be a challenge to fly,  as the return trajectory in Figure 2 suggests.  That makes two pilots more desirable in any event.

Anticipating high landing speeds because of the geometric limits for the size of the pivot wing,  landings on dry lake beds are presumed,  which makes a landing gear arrangement like that of the X-15 desirable and proven.    There is a steerable nosewheel forward under the pressurized cockpit,  and a pair of main skids near the tail in the engine compartment.

Pitch,  yaw,  and roll are presumed controlled with the V-tail surfaces,  which otherwise also hinge so as to stow vertical in the wake for entry,  and afterward deploy to about 45 degrees off vertical,  for aerodynamic flight.  Pitching tail surface leading edges together up-and-down provides pitch control,  pitching them opposite provides forces that affect both yaw and roll,  requiring different amounts from each fin to properly allocate the yaw and roll effects,  as influenced by the high wing.  The wing can be a subsonic airfoil,  and is a straight wing of fixed geometry,  effectively high-wing-mounted.

Unlike the space shuttle,  but like the other folding wing concept in ref. 1,  this craft enters the atmosphere at essentially 90 degrees angle-of-attack (AOA) and zero roll angle.  The flat shape of its belly provides significant lift with small changes in pitch,  so that aerodynamic lift can be used to fly the desired entry trajectory (a technique well-proven with Apollo and Space Shuttle).  The intent here is to return with little-to-zero payload and near-zero propellants,  having only a small allotment for the attitude thrusters. The heavier the return payload,  the higher the landing speed. 

The craft comes out of hypersonics at about Mach 3 at very high altitude (near or above 100,000 feet) still dead-broadside to the airstream.  Closer to Mach 1,  the V-tail and attitude thrusters put the nose down streamline,  and a drogue chute deploys,  that is sized for about the same drag as that of the entry configuration dead-broadside (both are sufficient to reach subsonic terminal velocities).  Once streamwise and subsonic,  the pivot wing is deployed and the drogue chute discarded.  At this point,  the craft becomes a straight-wing V-tail glider,  handling very much like any subsonic airplane,  just flown dead-stick (with maybe just enough propellant still on board,  to support a go-around on the main rocket engine).

Sizing

Figure 3 depicts the spreadsheet worksheet used to rough-out the basic weight statement and characteristics of the design,  as a function of overall length and selected “wing loading” values.  User inputs are highlighted yellow.  Most (but not all) significant outputs are highlighted blue or green. 

The first data group is “engine”  and gives delta-vee capability for given specific impulse (Isp) and the mass ratio values that come from the weight statement.   The engine and thrusters should do as well or better than the 300 sec of Isp shown,  and the mass ratio-derived ideal delta-vee value exceeding 2.5 km/s at 300 sec is quite attractive for a variety of possible missions.  One must hold in reserve at least the deorbit burn and an allotment for the attitude thrusters.

The second data group is “inert weight fraction”,  and is just an organized way to guess a realistic inert weight fraction,  based crudely upon what the structure must do.  These methods are described more in ref. 2,   as part of a larger methodology for estimating performance of rocket stages. The result here of 20% should be quite realistic.  Bear in mind that operational military and commercial airplanes here on Earth usually run near 40% inert,  where that category plus propellant fraction,  plus payload fraction,  must sum to 100%.

The third data group is “payload”,  and shows 200 kg for two men,  a quarter ton for their suits and life support,  and 5 tons max in the cargo bay.   The user inputs a payload fraction (in this case 20%),  and the remainder is the propellant load.  That leads immediately to the weight at ignition,  and thus the vehicle weight statement in the fourth data group. 

This spreadsheet analysis simply presumes that the body planform area is 0.8*length,*width,  and that the body cross section area is 0.8*width*height.  It also presumes the chord of the pivot wing is 1/3 the body with,  and that the span of the pivot wing is ¾ the body length.  That leads to a fixed wing area to body planform area ratio of 31.25% or thereabouts.  The user inputs the ratios of body width/length and body height/length,  representing fineness ratio proportions (both 16%,  or 6:1,  here).

There is a user input for the cargo bay length/body length proportion,  that eventually leads to a cargo specific gravity,  under the assumption that cargo fills 100% of the available volume.  I set that for a specific gravity 1/3 that of water,  to represent bulky,  lower-density items.

In the “aerosurfaces” group,  one sets the tail proportion and the entry “wing loading” of burnout weight/body planform area,  along with a hypersonic drag coefficient for the intended shape,  yielding an entry ballistic coefficient.  That gets used in the entry ballistic analysis.

A representative max wing loading for airplane-like flight with the wing deployed,  would be burnout weight divided by the sum of body planform area plus wing planform area.  That is because,  while the body lift curve slope is low,  the body planform is the larger area,  and thus a significant contributor to lift.  This applies,  as a user-input max lift coefficient,  to the landing speed calculation group.

The “proportions” group is where one inputs the body length,  its width and height ratios,  and the cargo bay length fraction.  This is where the various areas and volumes get estimated,  along with the cargo specific gravity,  and the weight/area loadings. 

It is necessary to iterate to closure here.  The weight/area outputs from “proportions” must match those derived from your input weight/area loading in “aerosurfaces”.  You have “body length L, m” and entry loading “Wbo/Abdy,  psf” as your values to change until you achieve convergence.  The higher the Wbo/Abdy figure,  the higher the ballistic coefficient will be,  and the higher the landing speed will be. 

I found that guessing max lift coefficient for landing was too unreliable.  So I added a worksheet to estimate this more explicitly from the “proportions” outputs.  This is the “landing” worksheet,  shown in Figure 5.  That worksheet produces the “right” stall lift coefficient to use in the “landing” group of the “rough-out” worksheet (and then you will see the landing speed estimates agree between the two worksheets).  I also added a worksheet to estimate the size of the drogue chute,  shown in Figure 4.

The landing worksheet estimates lift curve slope for the very low aspect ratio “wing” that is the body,  from an equation obtained from ref. 3,  the Hoerner – Borst lift book that is analogous to Hoerner’s “drag bible” (ref. 4).  This would be equation 9,  located on page 17-3 of chapter 17 in Hoerner and Borst (ref. 3).  Low aspect ratio wings inherently have very low values of lift curve slope. 

The only additional inputs to the “drogue” worksheet,  beyond outputs from “proportions” in the “rough-out” worksheet,  are the parachute subsonic drag coefficient and the end-of-hypersonic (Mach 3) point from the entry trajectory analysis.  The drogue is sized to provide the same drag and subsonic terminal speeds at 60,000 feet and 20,000 feet altitudes,  as the body falling dead broadside with the wing stowed.  The end-of-hypersonics point is just a check:  need 100,000 feet (30 km) or higher.

Entry Analysis

The entry trajectory analysis is a very simplified 2-D Cartesian model from the mid-1950’s that was used for warhead entry analysis.  It is based on a scale-height model of approximating density versus altitude,  and presumes a constant trajectory angle in 2-D Cartesian space.  To use it for estimates here requires that one fly a trajectory always oriented at a constant angle to local horizontal around the Earth. The range wraps around the Earth. The analysis is attributed to H. Julian Allen,  and is described in ref. 5.

In my spreadsheet version of the old model (image given in Figure 6),  there are user inputs for the vehicle model,  the scale height model,  the entry interface conditions,  and the stagnation heating model.  The vehicle model requires a ballistic coefficient and a “nose” radius (really the heat shield radius of curvature).  The entry interface model is altitude (for LEO,  140 km),  velocity (for a surface-grazing ellipse,  7.742 km/s),  and path angle below horizontal (for that same surface-grazing ellipse,  2.35 degrees) at entry interface conditions.  The final vehicle model achieved here has a ballistic coefficient of 439 kg/sq.m,  a length of 17.45 m,  and a heat shield radius of curvature of 27 m. 

Use of this spreadsheet model requires inserting a row of cells to represent the altitude and results for a speed corresponding to Mach 3 end-of-hypersonics (in this case about 1 km/s).  One iteratively adjusts the altitude so that a 1 km/s speed shows in the table.  One uses data from start (at entry interface) to only end-of-hypersonics for creating plots.  The model does not apply once speed is no longer hypersonic.  That is why you stop at the Mach 3 point for bluff bodies.  All of this is shown in Figure 6.

As also shown in Figure 6,  I added two things at the bottom.  One picks off the metric-units peak heating rate (wherever it occurs),  and the integral of heating at end-of-hypersonics,  and inputs them to a US customary units converter.  Next to this,  one uses an input emissivity and the converted peak heating rate to estimate the surface temperature at peak heating,  under the assumption that reradiated cooling power equals the convective heating power.  This would apply to a refractory (non-ablative,  and not-liquid-cooled) heat shield. I converted to US customary,  because that is the units of the radiation constant that I know,  and those are the materials-limitation properties that I know.

It is easy enough to highlight where the instantaneous gees exceed 5,  determine the peak gees,  and use the time scale to estimate how long the high-gee interval is,  that must be endured.  It is also easy to determine whether hypersonics is over at (or above) 100,000 feet (about 30 km),  as it should be for the rest of the concept’s descent sequence.

It is easy to plot the data from the entry spreadsheet analysis.  These are given in Figures 7-10.  Figure 7 is a range versus altitude plot,  illustrating the constant angle trajectory in the 2-D Cartesian model.  Both slant range down the trajectory,  and horizontal range along the ground,  are shown.  At only 2.35 degrees different,  the two curves fall on top of each other in this plot.  Horizontal range wraps around the curvature of the real Earth,  and the constant descent angle must be treated as constant with respect to local horizontal as one proceeds along the trajectory.

Figure 8 shows velocity versus altitude.  It starts at 140 km altitude and orbital speed,  and ends just under 35 km at 1 km/s (just about Mach 3).  Not much deceleration happens at all,  until one descends to about 60-70 km.  From there deceleration quickly grows to high values at about 40-50 km and below.

The two key kinematics results are shown in Figure 9.  These are velocity versus time,  and deceleration gees versus time.  Peak gees is about 6.22,  at 326.9 sec,  where the velocity is 3.820 km/s at 42.5 km/s altitude.  The time above 5 gees is only about 30-40 sec.  The peak and duration of the high-gee exposure is feasible for a seated astronaut,  to be endured in the “eyeballs-down” direction.   

Figure 10 gives the time history of the convective stagnation heating rate as q, W/sq.cm,  and its time-integral accumulation of energy Q, KJ/sq.cm.  Peak heating rate occurs a little earlier than peak deceleration gees,  being 26.75 W/sq.cm at time from entry interface 270.8 seconds,  altitude 55 km,  and velocity 6.824 km/s. 

End of hypersonics (at just about Mach 3) occurs at 412.6 seconds from entry interface,  altitude 34.78 km,  and speed 0.999 km/s. Looking at the heating rates,  a good guess says the plasma-induced radio blackout is about 3 minutes long,  as expected.  The whole entry is a bit over 6 minutes from interface to end-of-hypersonics.  These numbers are very,  very realistic,  despite the oversimplified analysis method.  It looks like my misuse of the old warhead entry analysis is justified for capsule-like entry.

Feasibility

The first time through,  I used a shorter (13.5 m) vehicle with a higher ballistic coefficient (732 kg/sq.m) and a 27 m heat shield radius,  which had an infeasibly-high max-load landing speed near 300 mph,  and came out of hypersonics at about 31 km.   It showed a peak surface temperature of 2541 F,  too high for an alumino-silicate refractory heat shield material (shrinkage cracks form above 2350 F upon cooldown). It was at this point that I added the drogue and landing worksheets to the rough-out worksheet,  in order to better optimize this design concept.

The final form is a 17.45 m long craft,  with a lower ballistic coefficient of 439 kg/sq.m,  and the same 27 m heat shield radius of curvature.  That reduced peak gees and peak heating,  reduced the heat shield temperature to a barely-feasible 2345 F,  raised the end-of-hypersonics to nearly 35 km,  and lowered the max-load landing speed to about 217 mph at sea level stall (under 200 is desired). 

These were computed for the full burnout weight loaded onto the body planform or total planform areas,  meaning flying back with full cargo.  Flying back with reduced cargo will lower heat shield temperature and landing speed.  That improves the feasibility of this roughed-out design.

Having a stagnation-point surface temperature under 2350 F is very important if one wishes to use a low-density alumino-silicate ceramic as a refractory,  re-radiation-cooled heat shield.  This need not be the logistical nightmare that Space Shuttle tiles proved to be.  There are other materials that could be developed with the applicable characteristics,  and providing the redundant retention that shuttle tiles lack.   See Ref. 6 for a very experimental material that was a fabric-reinforced low-density ceramic. 

Conclusions

What this analysis shows,  very much like that in ref. 1,  is that this sort of small spaceplane is within the realm of engineering feasibility.  The pivot-wing design would be easier to implement as entry heat-protected than the folding-wing design of ref. 1.  All-in-all,  borrowing the Russian “Baikal” pivot-wing approach is an improvement,  provided that it is deployed subsonically to reduce aerodynamic deployment loads.  It is limited in how much wing area can be feasibly added in a dorsal-only mount. 

The craft as-sized is 28.5 metric tons at fully-fueled,  fully-loaded ignition.  Its body is 17.45 m long,  and about 2.8 m wide,  and 2.8 m high.  Only the tail fins stick out to the dorsal side.  It might actually fit within the standard payload shroud of a Falcon-Heavy booster rocket,  and certainly falls within the payload weight limit for that rocket to recover its first stage cores.   If SLS ever really flies,  it could certainly carry one (or more) of these craft.

About 2.4 km/s worth of on-orbit delta-vee makes a great many missions possible with a craft like this,  once delivered to eastward LEO by a suitable booster.  That is over 15 degrees worth of plane change,  or very nearly to Earth escape velocity.  Multiple orbit visit locations in one mission become possible,  a very attractive characteristic indeed.

Having a small airplane with an easily-stowed wing as the returning spacecraft,  makes possible picking this up with something like a C-130,  and flying it to any suitable launch site.  Having a low-density alumino-silicate heat shield makes a long service life between repairs feasible,  as long as it does not take the form of bonded tiles,  no two of which are alike,  as with the Space Shuttle.  Thus logistics are greatly simplified.  That makes turnaround time shorter,  and flying costs lower. 

Final Comments

This is not a real design study.  It is only a configuration rough-out and basic feasibility analysis.  It shows that such a design really is feasible,  that much is certain.  Little else.

But,  the reader is cautioned to not take this work to be more than it actually is!  I ran no dimensions other than some overall ones,  selected no materials,  conceived and weighed no structural components,  and I did not do any detailed heat transfer,  air loads,  or stress-strain analysis.  Most of the parts for which those kinds of design analyses are appropriate,  have not been designed at all.

This pivot-wing design approach offers a much easier-to-heat-protect method of mounting the stowable wing for reentry.  It is strongly limited in how large that wing can be,  relative to the rest of the airframe.  Thus it inherently suffers from high landing speeds.

The earlier folding-wing concept can have a much larger wing relative to the rest of the airframe,  which means it can have a much lower landing speed.  That offers any airport as a landing field,  even if the main skid gear is retained (wheels add more weight).  The problem is heat-protecting the hinge joint,  especially if a low-wing design.  That is not impossible,  just quite difficult.

References

#1.  Johnson,  G. W.,  “A Unique Folding-Wing Spaceplane Concept”,  article posted on http://exrocketman.blogspot.com,  dated March 2,  2013.

#2. Johnson,  G. W.,  “Back-of-the-Envelope Rocket Propulsion Analysis”,  article posted on http://exrocketman.blogspot.com,  dated August 23,  2018.

#3. Hoerner,  S. F.,  and Borst,  H. V.,  “Fluid Dynamic Lift”,  published by Mrs. Liselotte A. Hoerner,  1975.

#4. Hoerner,  S. F.,  “Fluid Dynamic Drag”,  self-published by the author,  1965. 

#5. Johnson,  G. W.,  “BOE Entry Model User’s Guide”,  article posted on http://exrocketman.blogspot.com,  dated January 21,  2013.

#6.  Johnson,  G. W.,  “Low-Density Non-Ablative Ceramic Heat Shields”,  article posted on http://exrocketman.blogspot.com,  dated March 18,  2013.


 Figure 1 – Vehicle Concept for Pivot-Wing Spaceplane



 Figure 2 – Operations Concept for Pivot-Wing Spaceplane



 Figure 3 – Image of Spreadsheet Worksheet Used For Vehicle Rough-Out Calculations

 Figure 4 – Image of Spreadsheet Worksheet Used to Size the Drogue


 Figure 5 – Image of Spreadsheet Worksheet Used for Landing Speed Calculations



 Figure 6 – Image of “BOE Entry” Spreadsheet Worksheet Used for Entry Estimates



 Figure 7 – Spreadsheet-Generated Plot of Entry Trajectory Shape



 Figure 8 -- Spreadsheet-Generated Plot of Entry Trajectory Deceleration Trend



 Figure 9 -- Spreadsheet-Generated Plot of Entry Trajectory Kinematics



Figure 10 --  Spreadsheet-Generated Plot of Entry Trajectory Heating


Monday, April 1, 2019

Something Added to the House


We recently got a historical marker on our house.

The first photo is of our front porch,  near the front door.  You can see the big metal Texas star,  which matches one on the farm shop across the driveway.  The new historical plaque is on the front wall just left of the metal Texas star.





















The second photo is a closeup of that historical marker,  so that you can actually read it.  Enjoy. 





















The main takeaway here is that historical and hysterical are spelled (and pronounced) very similarly.

Saturday, March 16, 2019

THIS is a Slide Rule!


This simple device is what equated to a modern scientific pocket calculator when I first entered the aerospace defense workforce (see the photo).  This is a slide rule,  the "calculator" used by engineers and scientists for 300 years before there were any electronic calculators at all!  This very slide rule is what I designed my first airplane with,  and my first half dozen supersonic missile propulsion systems with. 




For problems you could not handle pencil-and-paper with a slide rule,  there was the mainframe computer.  These were devices that filled a room the size of a small house,  air-conditioned to about 60-65 F,   so that the magnetic iron cores and wiring would not try to melt down!  You loaded your data and programs into the mainframe "card batch" in trays,  up to 2000 cards at a time,  using paper punch card technology.  Job turnaround time was measured in hours,  sometimes days. 

As for modern spreadsheet technology,  when I first entered the workforce,  repetitive calculations were manually laid out on a big piece of paper in a matrix format.  You ran the actual calculations yourself,  using a slide rule,  or a bit later,  a hand-held electronic calculator.  You filled in the matrix slowly,  literally doing each and every calculation yourself,  and finding out "up-close-and-personal" what could go wrong with the processing of the data.  That is where today's spreadsheet software came from!

For a given manual spreadsheet job,  this experience taught you exactly how to program the calculations into a scientific programming language (in those days,  something like an early FORTRAN or BASIC),  complete with all the processing logic and error-trapping.   That required punching the program statements onto cards,  for card-batch load and debugging (again,  job turnaround time was hours-to-days between each run).  Once you did this,  you could do similar jobs,  requiring the exact same analysis,  far more quickly.  (Or you could modify your program to handle other jobs that were similar,  but slightly different in a few details.)

Most people today do not realize this,  but NASA mission control in Houston did not have any real computer consoles until the Space Shuttle first flew!  During the earlier Mercury,  Gemini,  and Apollo programs,  those flight controller consoles were only keyboard-controlled communication displays,  each slaved to a counterpart in a back room outside the mission control room.  There was a team of people (both men and women!) in each back room,  who answered the flight controller's question with slide rule calculations,  and typed in the answers,  so that their numbers appeared on-screen in mission control.  That,  plus analog instrument readouts converted to digital format on-screen,  is literally all the mission flight controllers had to work with!

With the exception of a mainframe-computed figure-eight orbit between Earth and moon,  NASA literally sent men to the moon during Apollo with slide rules (just like the one in the photo)!  And,  the record-breaking X-15 rocket plane (and all its earlier progenitors),  plus the SR-71 jet aircraft,  and all the early supersonic jet fighters,  were designed with nothing but slide rules.  Same for all their rocket and gas turbine engines!  And their heat protection schemes.

My slide rule still works.  I still use it when the electronics conk out,  which they inevitably do,  occasionally.  The slide rule never conks out like that.  It's just slower.