Showing posts with label current events. Show all posts
Showing posts with label current events. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

The Truth About AI is Finally Coming Out!

Found this image on LinkedIn.  It’s too good (and too true) not to post. 

It is my opinion that “they” are already starting to automate-away all the white collar jobs.  But “they” are doing it without paying any attention to the “garbage-in,  garbage-out” law that is inherent with any computers.  And with absolutely no regard to the evident fact that AI has no capacity for factuality or truth. 

“They” are the vast majority of the super-rich individuals and the giant companies they own.  Their only concern is more wealth and power,  at everybody else’s expense.  They own the politicians who enable them to oppress you,  by rigging the laws against you!  “They” are the oligopoly!

In point of fact,  it is also my opinion that the term “artificial intelligence” is an oxymoron!  There is no intelligence or understanding,  there is only stylistic imitation.  Even a real parrot is more intelligent and actually understands something.  AI does not!

If “they” can figure out how to build robot plumbers,  electricians,  carpenters,  truck drivers,  welders,  and such,  “they” will automate away all the blue collar jobs,  too! 

Between the white collar jobs and the blue collar jobs,  that’s the end of the American middle class!  Welcome back to abject economic slavery,  folks!  If “they” don’t just outright kill you instead!  Or deport you to some overseas prison that will kill you for them. 

This is NOT going to end well for the vast majority of the American people! 



Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Trump Denial Syndrome

I found this image on LinkedIn,  and thought it was too funny (and too true!!!) not to repost here.  I have seen people labeled as having "Trump Derangement Syndrome",  and I been the target of that myself.  Sometimes this was shortened to the acronym TDS.

But the real TDS is as listed in the illustration.  It is acquired by getting all your "information and news" from social media,  internet gathering-place websites,  and outfits like Fox News (infamous as right wing liars for some decades now).  

People come to believe lies that they hear constantly,  that has been known for centuries,  and underlies all propaganda operations.  




Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Thoughts on Multiple Bad Things

There’s lots of bad things going on the world,  notably in the middle east and Ukraine.  And there’s no clear “good guys vs bad guys” about the middle east,  despite so many claims otherwise on both sides.  There’s plenty of blame to go around there.  But not so much in Ukraine.

One thing has finally begun to become clear in the news reporting:  most of the death and destruction in the middle east is being done by proxy terrorist armies that are funded,  supplied,  and given marching orders by Iran.  These would include Hamas and Hezbollah,  the Houthis in Yemen,  plus some others in Iraq that have injured and killed US troops.  Here is the sense of a list of Iranian proxies that I got from the US State Department:

To this we need to add the following:  (1) the current direct Iranian attack upon Israel,  and (2) its Revolutionary Guard,  which has also directly attacked international shipping,  as well as being the private army that keeps the ruling mullahs in power in Iran.

The common thread here is Iran:  they have been ordering all this death and destruction,  and until recently,  have let their proxies do it for them.  The western nations have been striking back at the proxies,  but without any success at stopping the death and destruction,  not in about 4 decades! 

Iran itself has suffered no punishment whatsoever for doing all these evils,  mostly because the western nations do not want a general war in the middle east with Iran.  That has apparently been a policy mistake,  and needs to change.  And the mass attack upon Israel shows that the Iranians have finally been emboldened into acting directly,  instead of through their proxies,  likely precisely because they have never been punished.

Now,  don’t get me wrong:  the Iranian people are good people,  and have been our friends before,  and could be again.  They live in a sham democracy,  where the ruling mullahs can over-rule anything the elected people decide.  Those ruling mullahs are propped-up by a private army that ruthlessly suppresses dissent.  The mullahs themselves masquerade as religious leaders,  when they are in fact extremist terrorists who misuse and abuse religion to “justify” the evils they do. 

In point of fact,  there almost was a revolution in Iran about a decade ago,  but it failed for lack of outside support from us.  They had no chance against the private army (the Revolutionary Guard).

Now what Israel does is not under US control,  let that be perfectly clear!  They are a valued ally and friend in the middle east,  and one of the few democracies in the region that is not a sham democracy,  at least not yet.  And the US is sworn to help defend them when they are attacked,  that is also clear.  And we just did that,  helping to thwart the Iranian attack.

But,  the current elected government of Israel is a re-elected right-wing prime minister (Netanyahu) who this term leads a far-right coalition that is demonstrably a bit extreme.  This shows in the policies and strategies Israel has used in its Gaza war against Hamas,  that has led to incredibly-massive civilian casualties,  plus the approaching mass death-by-famine there. 

One might conclude that the overall goal here is that there be no Palestinian state,  because there are no Palestinians left to populate it.  And,  the current attack from Iran came about because (intentionally or not) the Israelis bombed an Iranian embassy in Syria. 

That being said,  Hamas is far worse!  That is a known terrorist organization that became the government in the Gaza strip,  in an armed takeover.  They give the people of Gaza just enough food to make them think that Hamas is their friend,  but then created a network of tunnels under every populated place in Gaza!  They hide behind a human shield at all opportunities,  and in fact prevented those civilians who were shielding them,  from evacuating before announced Israeli attacks!  No real government would do that,  but evil terrorists certainly would!  And did!

Now,  bear in mind another thing that must be made perfectly clear:  when you decide to attack an evildoer who hides behind a human shield,  the only way to strike him is through that shield!  There will be high civilian casualties when you do that,  it is inherent!  Using a human shield violates international law and anybody’s rules of war,  and that is exactly what the Hamas terrorists did. 

But the civilian casualties among the Palestinians in Gaza have been much higher than they needed to be,  and that’s the result of the policies of the right-wing extremist government of Israel.  So,  there really is plenty of blame to go around!  Israel needs to change-out its government,  that much is for sure!  Extremism is the true evil here;  right wing,  left wing,  makes no difference.  Both end up doing the same needless death,  destruction,  and oppression.  They both look the same to me!

 I think the wish to avoid a general war with Iran is the right thing,  but no consequences for Iran is the wrong thing! 

Here is an out-of-the-box idea:  what if Iran were to be struck,  but NOT invaded?  Struck in such a way as to enable the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the mullahs?  The mullahs that oppress them,  and who committed all this death and destruction all these decades?  What if the strike were to attempt two things:  (1) kill most or all of the mullahs,  decapitating that government,  and (2) destroying as many combat assets as possible,  of the Revolutionary Guard?  But without any invasion at allNone!  Simply enable the people of Iran to do their own revolution.

I would predict that the terrorist proxies would slowly go away over time,  should we be successful.  They are currently funded and supplied massively by Iran,  and if Iran no longer did that,  their means to cause death and destruction would dry up. 

Iran has been supplying Putin’s Russia with weapons for its Ukraine war, too.  If that were to stop,  Ukraine would have a better chance to defend itself.  You need to understand,  Ukraine is the west’s proxy in the war against Putin’s Russia,  who will next attack NATO members in eastern Europe,  if he succeeds in Ukraine.  It was that way with Hitler in the 1930’s,  it is that way with Putin today.  History says all these dictators are pretty much alike. 

Ukraine has run short of weapons and ammunition,  which is partly stalled by the GOP in the US House of Representatives.  We’ve all seen that on the news.  They are now losing to Russia as a result. We have all seen that,  too.

If Ukraine loses,  we lose,  and thereby will eventually face World War 3 in Europe,  when an emboldened Putin tries to rebuild the old Soviet empire in eastern Europe,  out of countries now NATO members.  Plus,  that other evil dictator in China,  Xi Jinping,  will be emboldened to invade Taiwan and start World War 3 in the Pacific,  if Russia is successful in Ukraine!  So,  Ukraine cannot losePeriodEnd of issue!

One GOP representative in the US House has publicly said he has heard colleagues spouting Russian propaganda on the floor of the US House.  That propaganda is aimed at stopping aid to Ukraineso that Putin can winI submit to you that voting against Ukraine aid,  is giving aid and comfort to Putin’s Russia,  which is clearly America’s enemy here!

It says in the US Constitution that one definition of treason is “aid and comfort to the enemy”,  and the standard for conviction requires only two witnesses in court to the act.  I wish the Justice Department would do something about what looks to me,  to be an awful lot like treason,  going on in the US House!

Defeating Putin’s Russia in Ukraine might possibly lead to one other good outcome for the US and the world:  he might be overthrown!  There’s likely a lot of Putin clones waiting in the wings,  but if the Russian people can get rid of them,  they might once again set foot on the path to a not-sham democracy.  They are good folk,  and could also be our friends once again.

Update 4-29-2024:  There are two additional facets to what I just said above.  There are pro-Palestinian demonstrations disrupting US college campuses,  with elements of anti-Semitism sneaking into some of them,  and the US Congress finally passed an aid bill for Ukraine,  although it is damagingly late doing so. 

Relative to the pro-Palestinian demonstrations,  I offer these opinions: 

First:  there is a portion of these demonstrators who are sincerely disturbed about the death toll so far in Gaza,  and the much larger one that looms due to approaching famine.  So am I.  There are also some outside agitators who have infiltrated onto these campuses,  stirring up the tendency to violence,  and stirring up the anti-Semitism,  while at the same time depicting the evil terrorists that are Hamas,  as innocent.  My hunch is that these outside agitators were sent here from outfits like Hamas and Hezbollah,  acting under marching orders from Iran.  This crap is massively on social media,  too,  in an internet totally unpoliced for truth.  What did you expect?

Second:  much of the reason for these excessive civilian casualties in Gaza lies with the far-right coalition that is the current government of Israel.  That does not mean all of Israel is like that,  but enough were of similar mindset to elect them.   Israel is our ally and friend and deserves our help.  But,  maybe not a totally free hand with the aid we give them,  until Israelis see fit to replace that far-right government with something not so inclined to kill civilians needlessly.  Unlike what the demonstrators seem to think,  the US does not control Israel’s actions.  All we can do is exert what influence we can.

Relative to the Ukraine War and belated aid from Congress for our proxy Ukraine:

Senator Mitch McConnel admitted on “Face the Nation” 4-28,  that the feuding Republicans are at fault for the defeats Ukraine has been suffering lately,  by delaying aid and weapons for too many months.  I actually agree with that,  but I go further.  There are two irreconcilable factions within the party,  which have successfully paralyzed much of our government for some years now.  That chaos and paralysis is actually the intent of one of those factions:  the so-called “MAGA Republicans”.

If you investigate the sites favored by such people,  you find out that the things they apparently believe and strive for,  overlap very strongly with the Q-Anon conspiracy theory.  The most well-known items include things like the “deep state” to be overthrown,  and the claim that Trump actually won the 2020 election,  but was denied his win by massive election fraud. 

Some of the other less-well-known things are actually rather frightening.  One is “the storm”,  which is the conflict that overthrows the “deep state”,  and in which the people of the “deep state” are rounded up and eliminated.  Specifications for this purge vary from site to site,  but the sense is that the “deep state” is actually everybody who opposes them,  which is more than half the country.  THAT is who they want to get rid of!

The most frightening thing relates to the chaos and paralysis they have been causing in our government.  If our government fails to function long enough,  the people will supposedly be more open to the alternative they offer,  which is a military-supported dictatorship,  precisely per the figure above.  (Trump’s advisor General Flynn,  advocated this in public during Trump’s term as President.)  Bear in mind that the Q-Anon community evolved into a fearless leader cult about Donald Trump almost a decade ago.  He is the dictator that they offer us.

The most treasonous thing they offer (besides the overthrow of our democracy) is the extreme isolationism denying all aid and cooperation with our allies,  in a time when we face major threats from Putin’s Russia,  Xi’s China,  the mullahs’ Iran,  and Kim’s North Korea,  plus all the terrorist proxy armies run mostly by Iran.  Denying aid and weapons to our proxy Ukraine (in the war against the expansionist aims of Putin’s Russia) is the way to see Ukraine defeated and Putin winning,  also encouraging Xi to invade Taiwan.  Aiding the enemy is the treason I speak of.  World War 3 is the ultimate consequence of that treason.

You have been warned (multiple times,  in my articles here on this site).  Now I urge you to rise up and do two things:  (1) vote these traitors out of our government,  and (2) demand that the DOJ prosecute them for their treason.

Update 5-6-2024:  The pro-Palestinian protests continue,  edging across the line into doing damage and committing crimes in some cases.  I think if you follow the money,  the students are too poor to have bought all that camping equipment,  Palestinian-style headgear,  and signage.  That's where the "outside agitators" come into this.  They provided the money and supplies,  and took advantage of mob psychology to stir protests into serious misbehavior.  Psychologically,  lynch mobs work exactly the same way.

The "outside agitator" effect is also a part of what these students see on their social media,  which is unfortunately pretty much the place where today's young people get their supposed "facts" and "information".  The internet is unpoliced for any sort of truth,  which is why should it surprise no one that social media is rife with misinformation and disinformation,  much of it emplaced there by this country's multiple hostile adversaries,  to include the terrorist organization Hamas itself.  That is exactly how the anti-Semitism is getting into this unrest!  Why would you expect anything different?

That being said,  look at what Netanyahu's far-right wing Israeli government is doing.  The ceasefire negotiations were effectively sabotaged by Netanyahu insisting that he was going to attack Rafah.  While they distributed leaflets warning civilians to evacuate,  I'd bet money they will start the bombing without actually trying to move anybody out of the way!  And because Hamas was stupid enough to attack a border crossing where food comes across for the starving civilians,  Netanyahu has closed that crossing,  which pretty much guarantees that lethal famine will spread quickly.  Far-right Israelis don't care about Palestinian lives,  that much is clear.  This may well be attempted genocide,  or at least a war crime.  Which is why Israelis need to replace their government,  and soon!

Hamas has had years to build tunnels under every place in Gaza where civilians live.  The results uncovered so far verify that they did exactly that.  Netanyahu is therefore probably correct in saying Hamas is hiding underneath Rafah.  He's willing to kill the civilians in the human shield to get at Hamas,  while making no real attempt to save any of them.  That's the proof of my characterization of him and the far-right wing government he leads.

Hamas also quite clearly does not care for the civilian Palestinian lives that it supposedly represents as their government,  since it invariably uses them as a human shield,  and has done nothing for them but bare subsistence,  and even that stopped with the war following the infamous October 7 attack!  All of that would be entirely expected of a terrorist organization and terrorist proxy army,  deserving only to be wiped from the face of the Earth!  QED.

Meanwhile,  the terrorist fake mullahs that rule Iran have still suffered zero consequences for waging proxy war against Israel and the rest of the west,  with their Hamas,  Hezbollah,  and Houthis,  plus some others less well known in Iraq and Syria (that have killed US troops).  That needs to change,  or there will never be any peace in the middle east!  They've been the chief problem since shortly after taking over from the Shah. 

Some of the disinformation and misinformation that the protesting students get from social media was placed there by Putin's Russia.  I suspect Iran and China placed some there,  and I wouldn't put it past some of the proxy terrorists to have done so as well.  It is way past time to find some equitable way to stop the disinformation and misinformation that is so rampant all across the internet.  

This should also apply to radio and television.  I just haven't seen anyone in,  or running for,  Congress in the last 20-or-30 years that I consider smart enough,  and with enough honesty and integrity,  to actually do it!  Think about THAT the next time you vote!

Meanwhile,  Putin has taken full advantage of the unconscionable delays by the US and NATO at getting weapons to our proxy Ukraine in the war to thwart Putin's thirst for expansion and conquest.  The fault for that in the US (the extremist faction of the GOP misbehaving) was discussed just above,  and so far,  no one has been called to account for that!  That needs to change!  Right now!

Weapons are now finally on the way to Ukraine,  and suddenly Putin is barking threats to use nuclear weapons again!  Did nobody else notice the close timing of those two things?  His past pattern is to squawk and threaten,  whenever anybody in the west does anything that might thwart his expansionist plans.  I think we are seeing exactly that pattern again.  Which simply means massively arming Ukraine and ensuing their victory is PRECISELY the right thing to be doing!  Even if NATO has to go in there and help them!

Update 5-11-2024:  A couple of things seem to be coming to head,  with regard to the Israel-Hamas war and the protests it has sparked.  

First:  the administration has had a report done,  examining whether the Israelis violated US laws and regulations,  regarding the use of the weapons and equipment we gave them.  Meanwhile,  it has paused the delivery of 2000 lb and 500 lb bombs,  while this report was being produced.  The idea is that the US should not be complicit in any Israeli activities that the world may eventually deem to be war crimes.  This seems to me like the prudent thing for the US to do.  

The reader should note that Netanyahu and other far-right figures in Israel are quite publicly angry about the US pausing those bomb deliveries.  However,  more moderate figures in Israel are not!  Further,  there is considerable unrest and protest in Israel over the conduct of this war.  Given my assessments given above of the current Israeli government,  this outcome should surprise no one. 

The gist of the report is very critical of the Israelis for the vast number of civilian casualties they have caused in Gaza so far,  but not that our laws or regulations have actually been violated.  Dropping big bombs on a city densely full of civilians is certainly not something we in these modern times would want to do,  without making some serious effort to move them out of the way.  

All that being said,  I suspect the weapons deliveries to resume soon,  which will probably spark more protests here.

Second:  as described above,  I believe that the bulk of the actual students out protesting have been misled and stirred up by disinformation on social media,  that being the only thing they look at for their information,  or any other purposes.  That disinformation was put there by our adversaries.  The authorities would be wise to look closely into that,  and consider how best to police the internet for truth.  The free speech right in the First Amendment is NOT an absolute right:  no one is allowed to yell "fire" in a crowded theatre,  unless there really is one!  And inciting riots is a crime,  and quite properly so!

 Also as described above,  I believe that non-students have been leading these protests and supplying the money and means to do them,  especially the encampments and barricades.  Students are generally too poor to have bought all those tents,  for one thing!  The authorities would also be wise to look into that possibility.  If such outsiders are among the protesters arrested,  laws regarding incitement to riot have been violated,  along with laws about trespass and destruction of property.  If the outsiders prove to be foreigners,  deportation would also be appropriate,  but only after serving the appropriate sentences.

Update 5-20-2024:  To my surprise,  the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued {update 5-24-2024:  prosecutor has asked the International Criminal Court to issue} arrest warrants for certain top Israeli leaders and certain top Hamas leaders!  Israel,  for killing too many civilians trying to kill Hamas (deservedly so,  after Oct 7),  and Hamas,  for hiding underneath the civilian population they supposedly govern,  as their human shield,  not to mention the Oct 7th atrocity they committed. 

I doubt this actually leads anywhere,  but it certainly helps make two of my main points: (1) Hamas is a bunch of terrorists who certainly deserve to be wiped from the face of the Earth for the evils they commit,  and (2) the far right extremist government of Israel needs to be changed,  because it is killing way too many women and children while trying to kill Hamas,  and quite probably intentionally. 

My third point has yet to be addressed by anyone:  Hamas,  Hezbollah,  the Houthis in Yemen,  and several more terrorist groups,  are all proxy armies that are funded,  supplied,  and given marching orders by the terrorist fake-mullah "government" of Iran.  That government needs to fall.  And soon.


Monday, October 23, 2023

Only Force Stops Bullies

Lost among all the war news from the middle east is more bullying conducted by the Chinese.  They are actually ramming vessels belonging to the Philippines,  according to news reports.  That risks lives,  and the longer this evil behavior goes on,  the more likely it is that people will die. 



They haven’t rammed our vessels yet,  but apparently feel no compunctions about ramming the vessels of a nation perceived as weaker.  This is classic bullying,  just like what happens among school children.  And only raw,  naked force stops it,  just like among school children.  The difference is that between nations,  the force is necessarily military action.

The worst offenders in recent years have been the Chinese,  the Russians,  the Iranians,  and the North Koreans.  You have to understand who and what these players really are.  All of these are brutal dictatorships masquerading as faux democracies.  Each dictator is the center of his own fearless leader cult.  Facts do not matter,  and all opposition is crushed,  creating the illusion of popular support.

These bullying dictators typically try to intimidate neighbors into letting them do whatever they want,  and if unopposed,  the offensive behavior always escalates.  If never opposed,  the bully eventually loses his fear of starting a war,  and starts one. 

Xi’s Chinese sail and fly too close to the ships and planes of other nations in the ocean regions they want to annex.  This has now escalated into ramming Philippine ships.  The Iranians under the mullahs are seizing ships in the Straits of Hormuz and have now conducted a major attack upon Israel with their proxy Hamas.  Kim Jong Un’s  North Koreans sank a South Korean ship a few years ago,  now they threaten dropping atom bombs on the South,  and on us and Japan.  It is all escalating.

Putin’s Russia first annexed part of Ukraine,  then sent a proxy army to cause death and destruction in eastern Ukraine,  and still being unopposed,  Putin is losing his fear of starting a war with NATO,  and has now invaded Ukraine,  committing all sorts of atrocities along the way.

If these ever-escalating bad behaviors sound familiar,  they should.  Nazi Germany was a dictatorship built around Adolf Hitler as the center of a fearless leader cult.  His offensive behaviors first included annexing the Rhineland,  then the Sudentland,  then all of Czechoslovakia and Austria.  Never opposed,  he lost his fear of war and invaded Poland,  starting World War 2 in Europe.  And we know all too well about what happened as a result,  and all the atrocities he committed.  

Xi’s China has also so far been unopposed with force.  The next step for them is invading Taiwan,  which could well start World War 3 in the Pacific.  Oh,  you heard about that?  Now you understand the seriousness of the pattern here,  because I just told you. 

Diplomacy and sanctions are no opposition for these bullying dictators.  Only raw naked force gets their attention.  Without it,  their escalating misbehavior does not change.  THAT is the lesson of history!  Learn the lesson,  or repeat the history!  Simple as that!

The next time one of these dictator’s ships endangers one of ours on the high seas,  fire a shot across its bow (the signal understood for centuries).  If they don’t adjust,  then sink them,  no if’s,  and’s,  or but’s.  The next time one of their planes endangers one of ours,  fire a stream of tracers across its path.  If they don’t adjust,  shoot them down.  It is that simple,  and that brutal.  There is no other way. 

Global war is now upon you very soon,  if you fail to learn the lesson of history! 

I have written about this problem before,  at greater length than here.  If you want more depth,  go here on http://exrocketman.blogspot.com and see either (or both) the articles “What To Do About Aggressive Behavior At Sea Or In the Air” dated 8 June 2023,  and “Bullying Demands Resistance”,  dated 8 June 2019.  There is a fast navigation tool on the left side of that page.  Click on the year,  then the month,  then the title if more than one article was posted that month.  

You will soon see that I have not changed my opinions about what has been happening,  or what is required to stop it.  The only thing different is the increasing urgency as this escalates into war.

If you end up agreeing with my assessment,  then contact your federal representation,  and tell them what you want done.  If they won’t do it,  then elect somebody else.  Simple as that. 

Sunday, October 22, 2023

On the Israel-Hamas War

This was originally written 10-18-2023:

To understand what is going on,  you have to understand who and what the players are.  We know who the Israelis are.  But many do not understand who and what Hamas (and Hezbollah) really are!  We need to include Hezbollah,  because very soon they might enter this war,  too.

These are terrorist organizations masquerading as religious jihadist groups,  that are really proxy armies for Iran,  and whose role is to cause chaos and death wherever the Iranian government wants it.  When I say “Iran”,  I am talking about their government,  a terrorist dictatorship masquerading as a democracy.  Not the Iranian people.

There are other similar terrorist organizations masquerading as religious jihadist groups out there (Al Qaeda and ISIS come to mind),  but it is Hamas and Hezbollah that belong to the Iranian government who largely funds them,  and certainly gives them training,  weapons,  and marching orders.  This has been going on for some decades now,  it is no secret.

I classify them as extreme terrorist groups,  because that is exactly what they do.  These groups kill anybody and everybody.  In point of fact,  they kill more Muslims than anybody else,  because those are the most numerous potential victims in the countries where they typically operate.  We’ve all seen these vicious crimes going on for many years,  and now Hamas terrorists beheading little babies in this war. 

What else is this but simple murderous terrorism?  It needs to be eliminated from the face of the Earth,  there is no question about that!

The start of this current war has Iran’s fingerprints all over it!  Iran is a sworn enemy of Israel,  but also a sworn enemy of Saudi Arabia (no secret there).  Israel and Saudi Arabia were getting close to a peace agreement that would have effectively put severe restrictions on Iran’s freedom-of-action,  so Iran had to start a war involving the Israelis to put a stop to that.  They did that by commanding Hamas to attack in great force,  which demands an invasion of the Gaza Strip as the response.

Hamas has been attacking Israel from the Gaza Strip for many years.  This usually takes the form of an unguided rocket barrage,  or a few terrorist troops crossing the border,  but rarely both,  and never before in the quantities and coordination seen at the start of this war.  That suggests the planning and supplies came directly from Iran!  Most of the weapons do,  we’ve already seen some stockpiles of them on TV.

As for the explosion at the hospital in southern Gaza,  consider that logically there are 4 possibilities:  (1) Israel did this deliberately,  (2) Israel did this accidentally,  (3) Hamas did this deliberately,  and (4) Hamas did this accidentally.  The point of such an attack,  if deliberate,  would be to stir up anti-Israeli sentiment among not just the Arabs,  but around the world.  Which we have seen! 

We have not seen any evidence as of yet,  regarding which of the 4 possibilities might really be true.  We have seen some suggestions that this was a misfired Hamas rocket (possibility 4). But no evidence has shown up yet in public. 

Instead consider motivations.  Why would Israel want such a thing to happen?  It could only stir up resentment against them.  Hamas,  on the other hand,  would like that resentment against the Israelis.  That suggests possibilities 1 and 2 are rather unlikely,  while possibilities 3 and 4 are rather likely.

So the odds favor that Hamas did this,  deliberate or not.  I cannot rule out deliberate,  because Hamas is the elected government (such as it is) of Gaza.  And yet Hamas has a repeatedly-demonstrated proclivity to use as human shields the very people it supposedly governs! 

Israel did not expect an attack on this scale.  That much is clear,  because it was absolutely not prepared ahead-of-time to invade.  In the past,  an air raid or two was sufficient response.  But not this time! 

I suggest that they invade,  kill all the Hamas fighters they can find,  and corral the civilians.  The women-with-children and old men can pretty much be presumed innocent civilians.  Younger men in the company of women-with-children are likely civilians,  too.  But young single men,  and single-women-without-children (a rarity in typical Arab cultures),  need close scrutiny! 

Why?  Because you do not want to kill innocent civilians,  but you do not want to take any Hamas prisoners!  Why waste the resources to keep alive that which you so sincerely want dead?  And if Hezbollah comes across the border from Lebanon,  don’t take any of them prisoners,  either!  This scourge needs to be wiped clean from the face of the Earth.

Update 10-22-2023:

4 days after this was originally written,  we have still seen no evidence in public about who really blew up that hospital in southern Gaza.  The motivations still point to Hamas doing it either deliberately or accidentally,  and some reports finger a subsidiary Hamas terrorist group as the perpetrators.

On the other hand,  terrorists are now firing rockets at Israel from the West Bank,  and Syria,  if reports are accurate.  Everyone fears a widening war.  It definitely appears that Hamas and its sympathizers are the ones widening it.

The recommended solution is still the same:  wipe these evil people from the face of the Earth.  All of them.  But,  while doing it,  try not to kill the innocent civilians!

Update 11-2-2023:

Israeli forces are now in the Gaza strip,  surrounding Gaza city,  and hitting what they claim are Hamas targets with bombing,  while causing casualties among the civilians in and around these targets.  Meanwhile Hamas is still firing rockets into Israel,  and so is Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Plus,  other Iranian terrorist proxies,  are firing directly at American forces in Iraq and Syria,  and killing some of them.  The war has already widened,  whether you like it,  or not!  There are two fundamental points to make about this,  which so far are not being addressed properly in the press reporting.

Point 1:  the ultimate culprit here is the terrorist “government” of Iran.  All these violent groups are their proxy terrorist armies.  The Iranian government funds them,  supplies them,  and gives them strategic direction.  So far,  the government of Iran has not been held accountable for any of this destruction,  despite their being fundamentally at fault for all of it!  That is a very serious foreign policy mistake being made by all the western governments,  collectively.  And this evil crap will not stop until the terrorist government of Iran is deposed!  

That government is terrorist dictatorship that masquerades as a religious group to justify itself to the people it rules,  and it operates a sham democracy where the ruling “mullahs” can override anything any elected body decides.  They ruthlessly oppress and kill any of their own citizens who dare protest or defy anything. This has been going on since they took over in 1979 after the Shah fled. 

You’d think the western governments would have done something effective about this before now,  but they have not.

Point 2:  the calls for a cease fire are well-meaning,  but are strategically very incorrect.  The reporting on this is based upon the massive death and destruction of civilians in Gaza that is right in front of everyone,  and not at all on what underlies that tragedy,  and which overwhelms that tragedy in importance. 

That mistake on the part of most of the reporters is understandable,  since reporting on what is right in front of them,  is usually exactly what they are supposed to do.  But,  focusing on the appearance is not what must be done by those who actually have to fight the war!  The few reporters I have seen who actually interview a real war-fighter about this issue,  do not seem to understand,  or even listen to,  the answers given by these war-fighters,  since these answers disagree with the appearances.  And that is a very serious mistake being made by the news media.  Dig deeper,  please!

Unlike previous Israeli responses to Hamas attacks,  this time the Israelis have made their top objective the ultimate destruction of Hamas,  despite the human shield behind which Hamas is hiding.  Why should it surprise anyone that there are civilian casualties,  when to win,  the Israelis must go right through that human shield to get at Hamas?  If they do not do this,  they lose,  and so do we all,  since the world must be rid of these terrorist groups!  The real war crime here is not the Israelis going through that human shield,  it is Hamas using a human shield in the first place! 

And I do not see that crucial fact being adequately reported.

Update 11-6-2023:  For those who cannot see past the civilian casualties in Gaza,  consider this.  Israel telegraphed the "punch" that was coming,  to give the civilians who constituted the human shield time to get out of the northern Gaza strip.  Very few did,  most did not.  Some might have since changed their minds,  worthy of a short pause to depart,  but only very short!  The Hamas terrorists simply cannot be allowed time to regroup. 

Update 11-30-2023:

Please see the column by Jonah Goldberg and titled “China deflects world’s attention to Israel”,  which was published this date in the Waco Tribune-Herald.  He hits the nail right on the head regarding the strategy China has been using to deflect away criticisms for the many evils it does. 

The misplaced support so many very young people show for the terrorist “government” in Gaza,  called Hamas,  traces directly to their use of the Tik Tok social media platform,  where anti-Jewish disinformation (among other things) gets spread by the Chinese government.  China is not the only one doing this,  but right now,  they are among the worst.

Thank you,  Jonah Goldberg,  for pointing this danger out in public.


Friday, July 7, 2023

On the Loss of the “Titan” Submersible

We will all know more,  after the Coast Guard inquiry is completed.  The picture shows the layout and characteristics of the vessel.  The cylindrical portion was a tube made of carbon composite,  with a wall thickness of 5 inches.  The domes on each end were thick titanium metal,  bolted to metal rings bonded to the carbon composite tube. 

The end domes were recovered more-or-less intact,  along with other large chunks that include some of the aft exterior plating,  and some exterior-mounted equipment items.  This suggests it was the carbon composite pressure hull tube that failed in the catastrophic implosion,  as no large chunks of that tube have been seen as recovered items. 

Composites made with layers of woven cloth must be compressed during cure,  to avoid massive porosity issues.  This is usually done by vacuum-bagging the layup for cure.  The stronger the vacuum,  and the thinner the part,  the lower the porosity.  That porosity weakens the part,  and gives it a finite life under cyclic loading,  due to the voids locally concentrating stresses. 

Parts made by continuous fiber winding are not vacuum-bagged,  but avoid the massive porosity of woven-cloth parts,  at the cost of requiring multiple fiber winding directions to handle all the forces applied in various directions.  Some porosity is inherent,  just as in the properly vacuum-bagged woven cloth parts.

I suggest that composite material was the wrong choice for a deep submergence vehicle pressure hull! 

There is time for sea water to infiltrate into the porosity voids during the descent and subsequent bottom time. At those depths,  sea water is slightly compressible (by around 1.5 to 2% of volume).  It does not have time to fully percolate back out during the ascent,  so to one extent or another,  it swells and causes local cracking around the porosity voids,  weakening the part.  The part gets more damaged internally and thus a little bit weaker,  with each dive cycle.  Sooner or later,  it will fail.

The problem here is sea water infiltration under high pressure into the inherent porosity of the part,  something that does not happen in more ordinary conditions.  Metals do not suffer this porosity infiltration mechanism,  although they are subject to fatigue. 




Update 7-7-2023:  Just to be clear,  composites do not “fatigue” the way metals do (agglomerating atomic lattice misalignments leading to cracks,  with stress concentrations at the crack tips propagating them rapidly further).  But there is a limited life in composites due to accumulating internal damage with cyclic loading.  This is not as well understood as metal fatigue,  but nevertheless,  it is quite real. 

It appears to have something to do with stress concentrations about voids in the matrix (leading to cracks),  and about other voids at the fiber-matrix interfaces (leading to delaminations).  What I suggest here in this article is a seawater infiltration effect at high pressures that greatly compounds the already-existing cumulative damage problem. 

The infiltrated seawater cannot get out fast enough during the ascent,  but as sea pressure reduces,  it expands,  forcing both these types of voids wider,  and making the damage they do  much worse.  This would not be so much of a problem at the “ordinary” depths of submarines,  where the seawater is essentially incompressible.  But at very deep depths,  the seawater actually is compressible,  and you can incur significant damage,  as it expands faster than it can get out of the material,  during even a single ascent. 

To reduce that risk,  you use only materials with no internal porosity.  And that rules out composites!  Which is exactly why I said composites were the wrong material choice,  for the pressure hull of a deep-diving submersible. 


Monday, July 3, 2023

Ukraine War Stuff

Update 7-6-2023 an edited version of this appeared as a board-of-contributors column in the Thursday 7-6-2023 Waco "Tribune-Herald".  

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It seems the long-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun.  This thing is supported by vast quantities of weapons from the US and multiple other western nations.  However,  the supporting air cover is still lacking,  so it is a grindingly-slow battle of attrition on the ground. 

The “wild card” so far has been the failed armed rebellion in Russia,  by the Wagner Group mercenaries,  who have been the most battle-worthy troops Russia has fielded so far in Ukraine.  The real Russian military supplies their heavy weapons and vehicles,  though.  What effect that rebellion and its outcome may have on the counter-offensive,  is still uncertain.

The Ukrainians are our proxy army against Putin’s Russian troops and mercenaries,  who invaded as the next escalation beyond their previous relatively-unopposed misbehaviors (annexing Crimea,  fomenting uprisings in the east).  Do not expect fast results:  this entire thing is going to be a knock-down/drag-out army-against-army thing,  with high casualties on both sides,  almost no matter what else happens. 

Evidence is mounting that Putin’s Russians destroyed that dam in the Kherson region,  with disastrous effects,  but also halting the counter-offensive in that region.  The Russians had the means,  and the motivation,  to do this,  and they had control of the dam when it actually failed.  If it quacks like a duck…

They claim the Ukrainians did it,  but one would be unwise in the extreme to accept that claim!  A common modus operandi with Putin’s Russia is to do something atrocious,  then claim the other side did it instead,  as loudly as they can,  to divert blame from themselves.  We’ve seen it before,  and not just with Putin’s Russia.  It’s right out of the playbook that all dictators have used for centuries.

Putin has also been making threats to use nuclear weapons for almost a year now,  and has recently started moving nuclear weapons into neighboring Belarus,  a Putin ally adjacent to Ukraine.  As the Ukrainians begin to push the Russians out,  I think Putin might actually use nuclear weapons on Ukraine for revenge.  He’s done just about every other atrocious war crime that there is to do.  It fits his pattern.

Regardless,  this war must go to the correct completion:  only a Ukrainian victory can be the outcome here!  We have to supply the weapons necessary to bring this about,  or otherwise Putin will continue invading other breakaway nations that were formerly part of the Soviet empire (and some of them are members of NATO now,  triggering an all-NATO response that starts WW3 in Europe).  As with Hitler,  you cannot appease a dictator,  or negotiate limited behaviors.  Only raw naked force in sufficient quantities is effective to stop them.  We’ve seen that before,  too!

Our supplying the Ukrainians sufficient means to win is what Putin fears the most,  other than direct war with all of NATO!  That is why his spy agencies and hacker groups have been spreading propaganda lies on social media,  and among far-right “news” outlets,  trying to convince enough people in the US and other western nations to oppose supporting Ukraine,  for any of a number of bogus “reasons”. 

It is also why they meddled in the 2016 US election,  trying to help Trump get elected.  They knew Trump would favor Putin over our NATO allies,  and he did,  starting in Helsinki.  We all saw it on live TV.  And to my way of thinking,  that behavior was arguably treason of the “aid and comfort to the enemy” type. 

Our press have repeatedly noted the existence of a “Pro-Putin wing” of the GOP that wants to end support for Ukraine.  The right-wing social media and “news” outlets are infested with both conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda,  and that’s all those folks ever hear,  so they believe it (repeated lies becoming “true” is another item right out of the dictator’s playbook).  So,  I just told you why the Putin wing of the GOP exists.  And I have been describing to you why it is deadly wrong.

Do not be deceived by any of this!  Ukraine must win to contain future Russian invasions,  and we must fully support them to make that outcome fully happen.  Otherwise,  this degenerates into general war,  sooner or later (that unopposed escalating misbehavior is exactly how WW2 started in Europe). 

And if Putin starts succeeding in Europe,  Xi in China will see the western countries as too weak to stop him,  and so he will immediately invade Taiwan.  That starts WW3 in the Pacific,  exactly the same way Japan started WW2 in the Pacific with the Pearl Harbor raid. 

Only this time around,  everybody involved already has nuclear weapons!  You have been warned! 

Russian Mobile Battlefield Nuclear Missile

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Update 7-12-2023:  Reports say Zelenskyy is upset because NATO could not offer Ukraine a clearer path to membership.  I can understand that.  Ukraine is NATO’s proxy war-fighter against ever-enhancing Russian aggression.  This role has already laid much of Ukraine in ruins. 

NATO exists to counter Russian (and similar) aggression.  Simple as that.  I think it is past time NATO did more in this war to push Russia back.  It may be time to immediately make Ukraine a member,  and send in the NATO armies per Article 5.  All the stuff tried up to now is short of that response,  and it really isn’t working all that well.  If at all.

Putin’s Russia has demonstrably moved from threats and saber-rattling to actual invasions (with associated atrocities and war crimes).  This is exactly the same as the behavior pattern of Hitler’s Nazi Germany in the mid-to-late 1930’s.  Unless stopped,  Russia will continue escalating its egregious behavior into general war,  just like Nazi Germany did,  in the late 1930’s. 

Either learn from history,  or else repeat it.  The repeat is not identical:  this time all the participants have nuclear weapons.

Diplomacy and economic sanctions are never going to stop Putin’s Russia.  Only large amounts of raw naked force will!  This has escalated to the point that one small proxy is not going to be able to do the job that has to be done.  It has become painfully obvious that NATO must take direct action,  while Putin still fears direct war with NATO. 

Sooner than you might suspect,  Putin will no longer fear that!  His pattern of behavior is identical to that of Hitler, who by 1939 no longer feared war with the western allies. 

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Thursday, June 8, 2023

What to Do About Aggressive Behavior At Sea or In the Air

Every several weeks there is another incident at sea or in the air with an adversary’s ships or planes maneuvering aggressively or dangerously,  right in front of our ships or planes.  Most of the recent ones have been Chinese misbehavior,  although we also used to get this from Putin’s Russia,  before he got so bogged down in Ukraine.

The most recent incident with the Chinese in the Taiwan Strait is pictured.  The Chinese warship cut dangerously close across the bow of a US destroyer (and a Canadian warship).  Under normal circumstances,  this is egregiously-incompetent behavior risking a collision like that.  But these circumstances are not normal:  we are being tested for signs of weakness!


Our typical measured response is to slow down or change course to avoid the collision,  which is exactly what happened in this case.  It’s a non-aggressive way to avoid the danger,  and to avoid provoking any conflict.  Any normal civilized person would not misinterpret that. 

But,  these countries are run by dictators who do NOT think like that!  Both Putin in Russia and Xi in China are would-be Adolf Hitler clones,  out to secure as much world domination as they can.  You have to understand that,  in order to understand how they interpret our measured responses as a sign of weakness.  The proof of that thesis is that they continue to do these aggressions quite frequently. 

The only way to stop this,  is to respond strongly in terms they actually understand:  raw naked force.  It has nothing to do with logic,  common sense,  or civilized behavior.  It has everything to do with effectively “slapping the dictator upside his head”. 

You see that 5-inch gun turret on the foredeck of our destroyer in the picture?  We have to use it,  in the centuries-old unmistakable way,  of first responding with a shot across the bow of the offender.  If the offender persists,  then we hit him with it on the second shot.  If he shoots back,  we sink him.  The ship has missiles that will do that,  since only one little 5-inch gun is too small a force to do a quick sinking.

It’s called “gunboat diplomacy”,  and it has worked,  for centuries.  But,  it is really hard to do gunboat diplomacy if your boats lack guns.  Some of ours have no guns,  only missiles.  That was a mistake.

Yes,  it is conflict.  No,  it will not start a general war,  other than a war of words (about which we should not care much).  But it WILL put a stop to the offensive behavior at sea!

In the air,  it is adversary fighter jets zooming too close across,  next to,  and in front of,  our unarmed “patrol bomber” spy planes.  We have to arm them,  or else provide an armed fighter escort.  The inherent short ranges of fighters would suggest we instead just arm the spy planes.  To accomplish the analog to gunboat diplomacy at sea,  these planes need both guns and missiles,  and you need to put tracer ammo in the guns.

What you do when the adversary starts to zoom in too close,  is put a line of highly-visible tracer gunfire in front of him.  If he persists,  you then hit him with a missile.  Yes,  it is armed conflict.  No,  it will not start a general war,  only a war of words.  But it WILL put a stop to the egregious behavior! 

Arming these planes does impact their mission.  From that point forward,  you must keep them in international airspace only;  you never violate sovereign territory with them again.  But,  international airspace is where they do most of their missions anyway,  so it is only a small change.

The analog with Putin’s Russia is that Ukraine MUST win its war!  They are our proxy to stop Russian armed aggression.  A draw,  or a negotiated peace without Ukrainian victory,  is just a sign of our weakness in Putin’s eyes.  He will just keep on doing these egregious things,  unless we smack him very hard to stop him.  That is just the nature of these Hitler-clone dictators.   There is no other way.

Of the two,  China is the more dangerous one,  because it has a much bigger economy than today’s Russia.  But,  there are also many other minor Hitler-wannabees out there. 

Kim Jong Un in North Korea,  is one.  For him,  I would suggest that the next time he launches a rocket,  we shoot it down before it gets very far.  We have that capability.  What could he possibly do about it?  Nothing.  It starts only a war of words,  and it WILL constrain his future behavior! 

The key here is that we respond to these dictators’ misbehaviors with significant force,  each time and every time!  They understand only force as a strong response!  Anything less is taken as a sign of weakness,  inviting further ever-escalating misbehavior. 

And that escalating misbehavior DOES eventually lead to general war!  We’ve seen this before,  a bit over 8 decades ago.  It cost over 15 million military lives,  and over 38 million civilian lives,  even without nuclear weapons (except two right at the end).  The cost today with nuclear weapons is in the billions of lives.

A war of words,  or billions dead.  You choose.  Then tell your elected representatives what you want them to tell the military to do,  when these dictators act up.

And when they don’t do what you said,  elect somebody else.

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Some related articles:

“Russian Lies” posted 27 Dec 2022

“How To Stop the Ukraine War” posted 27 Nov 2022

“Nuclear War Warning”  posted 12 Sept 2022

“What the Ukraine Thing Is Really All About” posted 20 Feb 2022

“Bullying Demands Resistance” posted 8 June 2019  -almost the same topic,  just Russian,  not Chinese!!

“The Time Has Come to Deal With Iran and North Korea” posted 8 April 2017

“Cold War 2?” posted 18 March 2014 – this was the REAL start of the Ukraine war:  taking of Crimea.

Use the navigation tool on the left.  All you need is date and title.  Click on the year,  then the month,  then the title if more than one article was posted that month.

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Update 6-9-2023:  A close version of this article appeared on the op-ed page of the Waco "Tribune-Herald" as a column from the board of contributors,  of which I am a member.

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Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Balloon Flights and Countermeasures

Since posting Ref. 1,  I have heard a lot of nonsense in the media and on the internet about “steering” balloon vehicles.  Since the first manned hot-air balloon flights in the 1700’s,  people have tried and failed to actively maneuver round balloons with various steering surfaces and propellers.  It requires an elongated shape,  in order to reduce the drag enough to make that work.  We call them “airships”,  “blimps”,  and “dirigibles”.  They work well,  as long as the wind is not too high or the weather too bad.

Round balloons have always gone,  and apparently will always go,  only where the wind blows them.  The only thing you can do with a round balloon is change its altitude,  looking for winds going in the direction you desire.  Even if you can do that,  it is still very imprecise steering,  at best. 

The recent revelation that the Chinese launched a spy balloon to fly over America,  got me to looking at how such a flight across the Pacific might be made,  using the prevailing winds (really,  the jet streams).  As it turns out,  this same means was tried by the Japanese military during World War 2,  to transport incendiary and explosive bombs by balloon to the continental US. 

Figure 1 shows information about the jet stream winds,  obtained (as the figure says) from Wikipedia.  In the northern hemisphere,  there is the polar jet,  and there is the subtropical jet.  These flow with varying speeds,  usually fairly strongly,  and at different altitudes for the two jet streams.  Paths are quite variable,  but some basic trends are shown.  There are some other winds up in the stratosphere,  but these are weaker,  and not very predictable,  there being no particular pattern to them.   The subtropical jet would be the way from east Asia to North America,  but with enormous uncertainty! 

Figure 1 – Basic Information About The Jet Streams,  Particularly Over the Pacific

During World War 2,  the Japanese launched a lot of “Fu Go” balloon bombs from Honshu island,  some of which actually made it to Canada,  the US,  and a very few to Mexico.  Information about these is given in Figure 2,  again obtained from Wikipedia,  as the figure says.  The bulk of these were the paper Type A flown by the Imperial Japanese Army.  Payloads varied somewhat,  but the main intent was to start forest fires.  Not many actually reached North America,  and little damage was actually done.  Fear was the greatest result.  They used hydrogen as the lifting gas.

Figure 2 – About the Japanese “Fu Go” Balloon Bombs of World War 2

Balloon-borne spy equipment would be a cheap alternative to launching spy satellites.  If photography were the goal,  smaller,  cheaper,  lighter camera optics are suitable,  since the range camera-to-target is only a few miles,  not several hundred miles.  A satellite-borne camera must have large,  heavy,  and expensive folded-path optics to serve that function.  That kind of satellite is what set the size of the Space Shuttle cargo bay.  Note that targeting precision is required to make spy photography worthwhile,  and balloons cannot deliver that,  except by the merest chance.

If intercepting communications were the goal,  then one would fly a set of antennas,  each capable of a particular radio frequency band,  along with some sort of receiving equipment,  some means of transmitting the information for its recovery,  and a power supply for this stuff.  The lower range-to-target makes this type of communications intercept a lot more feasible than a satellite-based form,  particularly if the lower-power networks are part of your goal.  The purpose might even be to support cyber warfare,  among many other ends.  For communications interception,  targeting precision is not required,  since the ”target” is quite diffusely spread about.  Balloons could well serve that function.

While balloon vehicles have long been considered obsolete as a military technology,  the more recent introduction of stealth to military systems may actually help provoke a reprisal of balloon technology for spy purposes (and we’ve learned a lot since the Civil War).  Stealth coupled with the shorter-range effects of atmospheric flight may offer opportunities to collect communications intercept information that is not so easily obtained otherwise.  This may in fact be why the Chinese have done this. 

If constructed in the right way,  a balloon can actually be quite stealthy.  The modern gas bag is clear non-metallized polymer film,  transparent to radar,  and able to show no infrared signature,  merely by soaking out cold.  There’s no optical signature on a cloudy day or at night;  it only stands out against a dark sky on a clear bright day.  You only see it if you happen to be looking in that direction.

It is the balloon payload that will have the radar and maybe the infrared signature,  and even then not very much,  simply because it has to be so small in comparison to the gas bag size,  in order to fly very high.  Optically,  there is little payload signature for the same reason:  small size.

Altitude control for lifting-gas balloons is by venting lifting gas or by adding new lifting gas from on-board reserves.  Or it can be by dropping selected ballast.  Or by using both methods.  Until recently,  helium has been the usual lifting gas,  but flammable hydrogen is the stronger lifting gas.  Any degradation of the gas bag by the effects of hydrogen exposure is of little concern for a one-way spy flight,  as long as it takes several days to have effect.   The greater lifting power of hydrogen confers the capability of reaching higher altitudes,  with a given set of design proportions.   See Figure 3.

Figure 3 – The Why and How of a Spy Balloon

You must traverse the Pacific at an altitude low enough to catch the subtropical jet,  to have a practical travel time to North America.  Once you reach North America,  you need to rise to an altitude that is relatively invulnerable to any countermeasures against it.  Spy balloons are subject to the same international customs as spy planes.  Such intruders may be,  and often are,  shot down,  if territorial airspace is violated.  Such are not to be shot down until such territorial airspace actually is violated.

Over the last 30-40 years,  we have fielded fighter aircraft with service ceilings in the 58,000-65,000 foot range.  If an infrared-guided missile is to be used to shoot down the balloon,  the fighter has to get within about a mile or two of the balloon’s position,  or the seeker cannot lock on,  if it can at all.

If a radar-guided missile is to be used,  the seeker lock-on range is significantly longer at a single handful of miles,  but there is less likelihood of a radar signature large enough for the seeker to acquire at all,  especially as that range increases. 

For a gun attack,  the fighter needs to be co-altitude,  and at a real “up-close-and-personal” range under 1000 yards.  If some sort of dogfight-style air-to-air laser is to be used,  the co-altitude and short range requirements relax a little,  but only a little!  There are some lasers that can aim from much longer range and lower altitudes (even from the surface),  but the beam guidance equipment required is still rather large and heavy.   That’s why very little of those laser technologies are yet fielded.

The Chinese spy balloon was flying somewhere near 60,000-66,000 feet,  if the news reports are accurate.  The F-22 that shot it down was reportedly flying at 58,000 feet,  but has a service ceiling of 65,000 feet,  per Wikipedia.  The Sidewinder infrared-guided air-to-air missile that it reportedly used has a seeker lock-on range of about 2 miles,   or maybe 3 miles at most.  Had that Chinese balloon been flying above about 70,000-75,000 feet,  the F-22 could not have shot it down with a Sidewinder. 

We still have a few U-2 aircraft flying,  mostly the TR-2 variant,  but these are unarmed.  They can reach altitudes around 80,000 feet,  although adding armament would likely lower that.  There was an interceptor version of the SR-71 spy plane called the YF-12A,  which was armed.  Those could fly around Mach 3 at around 85,000 feet,  like the SR-71.  But all of those high-speed craft are long-retired now.   

Basically,  what that says is that if the Chinese spy balloon had been flying up nearer 70-75,000 feet,  we simply could not have shot it down.  If we were to arm a U-2,  then all the Chinese need do to counter that capability,  is to fly up nearer 100,000 feet.  Even if we pulled a YF-12A out of retirement,  it could not reach a balloon flying at or above 100,000 feet. 

Can a balloon fly that high with a significant payload?  Yes!  The third Project Excelsior flight in 1960 carried a gondola with a space-suited man (then-Captain Joe Kittinger,  USAF) to about 103,000 feet on its third mission,  from which he tested bail-out procedures and equipment.  The lifting gas was helium.  Kittinger set a long-standing record for high-altitude free-fall parachute jumps on that third flight.

In more recent years,  there have been two civilian free-fall parachute-jump flights that far exceeded Kittinger’s record.  Both were from manned gondola-bearing balloons,  at around 130,000 feet.  Again,  the lifting gases were helium.  You can fly even higher with hydrogen.  See Figure 4

A few of the old experimental rocket X-planes could reach such altitudes,  near or above 100,000 feet,  but they required hours-to-days to prepare for launch,  and were dropped from old bombers that served as carrier planes.  Fast response is a requirement here.

There was one trainer plane (intended for training space plane pilots) that routinely flew to almost 130,000 feet,  and with a fast response (and no carrier plane).  That was the mixed-propulsion NF-104,  which was an F-104A “Starfighter” modified with attitude thrusters,  plus a rocket engine in the base of the vertical tail.  It flew as a normal jet aircraft until pulling up for the steep “zoom” ascent.  The rocket engine powered that “zoom” ascent.  The jet engine had to be windmill-restarted on the way back down.  Ref. 2 has more information about the NF-104.

Figure 4 – What Altitudes Would Be Relevant

From the viewpoint of the spy balloon builder,  you need a balloon that flies across the Pacific at around 30,000 feet in the subtropical jet.  At just the right time of year,  that will take you near the Aleutians,  into Alaska,  western Canada,  and the northwestern US.  From there it crosses the lower 48 towards the Atlantic.  Although,  “exactly where” is uncertain by at least several hundred miles!

You want to raise the altitude above about 75,000 feet over Alaska and Canada,  and on up to around 130,000 feet or more,  over the continental US.  You can track the balloon by satellites,  and change its altitude on command,  again by satellite,  a capability the Japanese did not have during World War 2.   Your range to the communications targets is about 24 miles vertically,  and closer to 36 miles at 45 degrees to either side of your ground track. You retrieve your data and send it to the satellites overhead,  and they send it “home”.

All of this is indicated on the left side of Figure 5

From the viewpoint of the people trying to intercept and down these things,   you need a fighter craft capable of zooming up well beyond 130,000 feet,  at least briefly,  and it needs an appropriate set of weapons to use against the balloon.  Anticipating a sort of arms race in balloon altitudes,  I’d recommend at least 150,000 foot initial capability.

You have two sub-missions:  (1) identify and evaluate the threat of the balloon,  and (2) if it really is a threat,  shoot it down.  The weapons could be missiles,  guns,  or lasers.  Those two sub-missions could be two flights by two separate aircraft.  If a long-range air-to-air laser is used,  the shoot-down flight does not really need the high-altitude “zoom” capability.  But it does need to be a fast aircraft,  in order to obtain fast response.   Otherwise,  your best bet is guns,  and maybe infrared-guided missiles,  on the “zoom” aircraft.

Seeker lock-on being an “iffy” problem due to the inherent stealth,  I’d recommend using guns.  But I would modify the ammunition:  from projectiles to scatter-shot shells.  That offers more holes in the gas bag per hit,  with a much lower risk of collateral damage on the ground from your ammunition falling back to Earth.   Scattershot falls a lot more slowly than projectiles,  and each particle is much smaller.

All of this is given in the right half of Figure 5.  

Figure 5 – Mission Characteristics for the Balloon and Countermeasures Against It

In Ref. 1,  I ran some rough-sizing numbers for modifying an F-16C to the mixed-propulsion form needed for “zoom” missions like these,  and for sizing the rocket engines that need to be added.  There are plenty of these planes available in the inventory.  As jet aircraft,  they have far superior flying and handling characteristics,  compared to those of the old F-104A.  Being a far more modern design,  the flight control hydraulics should not fail with engine stoppage,  the way they did in the old F-104A.   That would eliminate a very serious failure mode experienced long ago with the NF-104.

In the F-16’s,  there is a 20 mm gun in the left wing root,  and Sidewinders get carried on the wingtips.  I doubt there is enough signature from the balloon payload for a radar-guided missile to lock onto,  so removing the on-board radar and deleting those missiles is the way to get the weight allowance for the attitude thruster modifications and the rocket propellant tanks.  That propellant is carried in tanks on the inboard underwing pylons,  near the center of gravity.  Doing it that way makes the weight-and-balance problem with the modified F-16C far less severe. 

References

#1. G. W. Johnson,  “Thoughts On the Chinese Spy Balloon”,  posted 5 February 2023,  on http://exrocketman.blogspot.com

#2. G. W. Johnson,  “Early High-Speed Experimental Planes”,  posted 3 July 2022,  on http://exrocketman.blogspot.com

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