On the new Iran war

Original article written 6-23-2025:

It would seem likely that we are starting down the path to another long Mideast war,  with no clear end in sight,  despite what government officials claim.  Netanyahu started this,  desperately wanting Trump to join in,  despite his campaign pledge not to,  and he did!  Israel did not have the means to hit the deeply buried facilities,  and we did,  which is why this has taken place. 

Iran’s regime is a set of terrorists,  masquerading as religious clerics,  using a private army (the Revolutionary Guard) to stay in power as a dictatorship,  and abusing religion to justify to their captive people the evils they have long done.  They have been sending out terrorist proxy armies to do their dirty work for about 4 decades now.   I think most people would have to agree with that entire assessment. 

There never was any realistic hope of negotiating an end to the Iranian nuclear weapon program,  because we are dealing with terrorists,  not any sort of people who value logic or the safety of their country and its people.  The previous nuclear agreement only slowed their pace,  until Trump abrogated it in his first term. 

It accelerated since then.  They now have a stockpile of reportedly-60% enriched uranium,  which was evacuated from the sites before Trump bombed them! 

So all the pieces for an Iranian atomic bomb are still in place,  despite the bombing,  including the terrorist government so desperate to have those weapons!  Contrary to the claims in the news reports,  you do not have to have 90% enrichment to build an atomic bomb!  Anything over 50% will work! 

Although,  for the same yield,  much smaller devices can be built at 90% than 50%.  This is no secret,  it’s been in public libraries since I first read it there as a young boy,  more than 65 years ago. 

Regime change in Iran was the one and only realistic hope of actually putting a stop to the Iranian atomic bomb!  And now Netanyahu and Trump have made that very much harder to accomplish,  turning the Iranian people against us by bombing their country,  and killing civilians in the process.  Plus,  the regime’s leaders have now gone into hiding,  so that we cannot easily take them out anymore. 

The right way to have done this would have been to support the Iranian people to rise up and do their own regime change from within,  without making enemies of them by bombing their country!  They would just need help overcoming the Revolutionary Guard.  Which without a war going on,  actually could have been done with targeted air strikes.

The Iranian people tried insurrection once before,  during Obama’s administration,  but failed,  because we failed to aid them.  Now,  such a scenario is no longer possible.  The only regime change now possible will have to be imposed from outside,  with boots on the ground,  and against a civil population rallying to defend their government from foreign attackers. 

You can “thank” Netanyahu and Trump for that really ugly prospect!  Although,  “blame” is a better word.

Any child who has passed grade school social studies (taught up to standard,  not just “to the test”) could have predicted some,  or even all,  of this.  But apparently neither Netanyahu nor Trump understood the likely results of their actions,  and apparently they still don’t. 

That conclusion is based on what they have done,  not anything either of them said.  Remember,  you can always tell when a politician is lying:  his lips are moving. 

I think both our countries have the wrong governments.  The Iranians are not the only ones in need of regime change.

Update 6-25-2025:  The cease fire between Iran and Israel seems to be holding,  after some initial violations.  I am surprised but pleased to see it.  It means maybe we have avoided getting into another endless war,  at least for a little while.

Meanwhile,  intelligence reports are still quite sparse,  but some seem to indicate that what I said above is true:  the Iranians managed to move out some of their enriched uranium and related equipment before the attack took place.  That is a thing that President Trump really hates to hear,  because it directly conflicts with his chest-thumping. 

Long term,  do not expect this cease fire to lead to any sort of permanent peace!  You are not dealing with normal political people as Iran’s government.  You are dealing with fanatical terrorists!  They will say anything and do anything,  that lets them continue their evil activities,  including building nuclear weapons.  Their history over the last 4 decades says so. 

The only permanent solution here was,  is,  and always will be,  regime change in Iran!  Unfortunately,  that will henceforth be hellishly difficult,  now that there has been a direct war to alienate the civil population.  Plus,  the ruling mullahs and the Revolutionary Guard private army that keeps them in power,  both survive intact.

Photo from Maxar showing immediately-visible damage: 

Other photos taken a day or two before the strike show a lot of unusual roadway truck activity.  Presumably,  that was truck traffic evacuating the materials and equipment,  anticipating a coming strike.