Sunday, February 20, 2022

What the Ukraine Thing Is Really All About

This is an opinion piece!


Heard it live from the Russian ambassador’s mouth on CBS’s “Face the Nation”,  Sunday,  20 February!  The Ukraine crisis is not about the Ukraine,  it is about NATO!  They want NATO greatly-reduced in strength,  presumably to leave them freer to try rebuilding the old Soviet empire by re-annexing the breakaway territories.  

That is exactly why they demanded limits on NATO that we could not abide,  in order to “stop” the invasion.  To them,  it was worth a try to see if they could intimidate the West,  and get what they wanted without the cost of an invasion. 

This is almost no different from the way Hitler intimidated and extorted his way to start annexing parts of Europe,  which of course led to World War 2 in Europe.  The only real difference is that there were no nuclear weapons available at the start of World War 2.  (There were by its end,  and the role they played in its end is another quite-complicated story.)

Putin and the Russian oligarchs who support each other do not care about Western economic sanctions,  because no ambitious dictators ever really cared about the welfare of the people they oppress.  (I double-dog dare you to name one who did!)  But,  the real risk of revolution if things get bad enough,  is exactly why there is disinformation and false-flag activity to whip up support at home in Russia for this invasion.  Temporary though such support may be,  it will last long enough for the invasion.

With state-controlled media spewing propaganda,  this is easier to do in Russia than here.    But,  spewing that same propaganda to people in the countries of the opposition,  is a way to divide their populations and reduce their opposition,  to one extent or another.  We in the US are not immune to this nefarious activity. 

My fellow citizens,  you should be aware that there are recognized Russian state propaganda agencies broadcasting right here in the US,  masquerading as “foreign news services”,  and trying to interfere in our elections,  for several years now.  Are you familiar with Sputnik and RT (Russia Today)?  You should be!

And you should also know this:  I have lost count of how many times the infamous opinion-mongers at Fox News have quoted various outrageous claims,  that I was able to trace directly back to RT and Sputnik as the sources.  “Providing aid and comfort to the enemy” is in the official definition of treason,  or did you not know that?  That was the basis for the actual treason conviction of the US citizen who was on Japanese radio as “Tokyo Rose” during World War 2. 

As a result of this Russian focus on getting a reduction in the strength of NATO,  and the West refusing,  the invasion of the Ukraine is inevitable,  and there will be war there.  It will be lopsided,  and the Ukraine will quickly lose and be annexed into Russia,  or at least a Russian puppet placed in control.  The Western powers have decided to let this happen,  and punish Russia with economic sanctions,  not military force.  Russia’s post-Soviet economy is fragile and vulnerable,  but this strategy will take much time to have any effect that we in the West can see. 

In the longer term,  Putin may well fall to revolution,  as the Russian economy goes into complete collapse.  But he is quite likely to lash out at the West before he goes,  and that may well involve nuclear weapons.  Even without that,  the collapse of the Russian economy will cause problems in economies worldwide,  because they are all linked far closer than any economies were at the start of World War 2.  You need to be aware of that,  too.  Opposition in any form to ambitious dictators always has its price.  Often,  it is a very high price.  This one will be.

We learned during the lead-up to World War 2 that you cannot appease ambitious dictators,  you must oppose them,  no matter the price.  There is no other way.  I hope this slow-motion attempt to collapse the Russian economy is enough opposition to ward-off the start of a World War 3,  which otherwise might well start from Putin’s lashing-out at us with nuclear weapons,  when he does fall from power.  But it is only a hope!  That is how high this price might well turn out to be!

The stakes are very high.  The risks are very high.  But Putin and the oligarchs who support him,  must go!  There is no other choice.  Russia’s brief flirtation with democracy after the fall of the Soviet empire,  must resume.  

Why?  We in the West are going to need the Russians on our side to help oppose another ambitious dictator in China,  one with a whole lot more economic power behind him. 

Update 2-21-2022:  

Late breaking Monday 21 February:  Putin today begins the Russian invasion of the Ukraine,  using recognition of the Russian-backed separatists in Donbas and Luhansk as the excuse.  There is now no choice for the Western powers except to immediately maximize the economic sanctions!  The only possible goal now is to collapse the Russian economy as fast as is possible,  causing his fall by revolution at home.  It will take time.  Meanwhile,  the Ukraine will slowly cease to exist.

Update 2-24-2022:

Russia is really invading the Ukraine,  as events clearly show.  I told you so!  In the piece above!

So Putin and his government officials are proving to be the liars that I said they were in the piece above.  There is no substantive difference between the behavior of Putin and the behavior of Adolf Hitler.  You can believe nothing he says at face value,  same as was true with Hitler.  Instead,  you must parse his words against his prior words and behavior,  to try to predict what evil he will commit next.  

And,  beware of people who seem to admire him.  They are out there.  Putin has already threatened anybody who resists him militarily with nuclear weapons.  He didn't use those words,  but the meaning was quite clear!  You need no more proof of Putin's evil nature than that.  Putin's admirers would thus seem to be evil themselves.  Which is why I said beware of them.

The West must do more than simple economic sanctions;  they need to topple Putin as soon as possible.  It will take utterly-extreme sanctions,  plus cyberattacks,  plus assassination attempts to do this.  If he falls to a revolution at home,  be aware he is quite likely to lash out at the West as he falls.  I predict he will lash out with those same nuclear weapons.  Y'all have been warned!

You will note that Xi's China is not joining the sanctions against Putin's Russia,  but instead trying to subvert their effects.  Why would he do that?  Easy.  Xi needs Putin in Russia to divert the world's attention from his own ambitions of conquest. Y'all have been warned!

Next on Putin's target list are the other ex-Soviet republics,  and some of them are now members of NATO.  That means that war between Russia and NATO is now inevitable.  It's an Article 5 thing.  The inevitability of such war is precisely because Putin perceives no resistance to his conquering of the Ukraine (it was the same with Hitler).  As it says in the piece above,  Putin and his oligarch supporters in Russia do not care about the Russian people suffering as their economy collapses.  It will take time for them to turn on him.  The only remaining question is "how soon?",  because I rather doubt he can be toppled fast enough to avoid this war-with-NATO outcome.  Again,  I have warned y'all!

Update 3-7-2022I see no reason to change anything I have said,  especially the 2-24 update.  

Update 3-14-2022:  The beginnings of WW3 have already started,  whether any of you like it or not.  There will be nuclear weapons used before this is over.  The only real question now is how to prosecute this war without starting the massive nuclear exchange that will destroy most life on the planet. 

Prediction:  if we rely only on sanctions trying to topple Putin with a domestic revolution,  that takes time (months,  maybe a year or more).  During that time,  Putin with conquer Ukraine committing foul atrocities and genocide along the way.  Then he will invade other breakaway countries that had been part of the Soviet Union,  one after another.  He will not stop until militarily opposed.  He may not stop even then.  Same as it was with Hitler.  Thus WW3 between Russia and the West seems to be inevitable.

Observation:  something like the strike in Ukraine immediately adjacent to Poland is the opportunity to militarily oppose Putin without WW3 immediately escalating into total planetary destruction.  If he were to attack a NATO member (and he will,  Estonia Latvia and Lithuania were once Russian and are now NATO,  as is Poland,  and several more),  Article 5 triggers war as a response. Had Putin's army screwed up and actually hit Poland,  that's the excuse to push them back,  and push them out of Ukraine while we are doing it. Without that military opposition,  Putin WILL NEVER stop!  Neither did Hitler.

One more time:  whether we do anything or not,  after a while,  Putin's own people will eventually rise up and overthrow him.  As he topples,  HE WILL LASH OUT at the West!  That will be with nuclear weapons,  more likely tactical weapons used in Europe,  but there is a significant chance he might fling ICBM's at the US.  

It might be better to oppose him militarily,  earlier in this process.  That way we restrain him at least somewhat,  before he topples to that domestic revolution,  and lashes out with those nuclear weapons.  

Something to think about.  Think hard about it!

Update 3-23-2022I am surprised and pleased to see how stiff the Ukrainian resistance has proven to be.  As far as I am concerned,  it is no longer a certainty that Russia will conquer them.  Still likely,  but not certain.  The rest of my predictions,  including who-knows-what violence when Putin lashes out at us when he topples,  still stand.  

Update 4-13-2022:  I looked up whether napalm was still a legal weapon of war.  It is,  but its use against civilians is now considered to be a war crime!  So,  you may only use it against enemy military forces.  So be it!

The Russian military convoys strung out for miles along Ukrainian highways are a perfect target for air-dropped napalm bombs.  You just fly down the road,  pickling-off bomb after bomb after bomb. 

I suggest that the western allies make both the attack aircraft and a whole lot of napalm bombs available to the Ukrainians.  Some fighter aircraft to maintain a combat air patrol above the attack aircraft may also be necessary.  

Losses to Russian air defense will be inevitable.  So you send more of this stuff,  rather than less.

The same applies to the bombardment positions being established by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.  Some of these are artillery,  and some are tactical bombardment missiles.  Doesn’t matter:  all would be destroyed by massive napalm attacks.  Without much civilian destruction,  if any.

This has to be done in a timely fashion,  something that seems to escape most politicians,  here and in other countries.  Time is of the essence.  Just get on with it!

The sooner Putin loses this war with massive casualties,  the sooner his people will rise up and topple him.  Is that not the ultimate objective here,  whether anyone wants to admit it or not?

Economic sanctions are taking too long.  Send the Ukrainians the napalm bombs,  and the aircraft needed to use them.

Update 4-16-22:  What the Russians are threatening the west about,  is exactly what scares them the most!  Therefore,  increase the heavy weapons sent to Ukraine,  including what I suggested in the 4-13-22 update just above,  about napalm bombs and the aircraft to carry them.  

The Russians are now worried about Finland and Sweden joining NATO,  which is why they are threatening everybody if such were to happen.  

So,  make that happen sooner,  rather than later!  It is the NATO Article 5 promise that an attack on one is an attack on all,  that scares the ever-loving piss out of Putin!  It is also EXACTLY why he doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO!  Because he knows that war with NATO leads to a defeat of Russia,  and the end of his autocratic reign.  That last is his REAL fear!  

Simple as that!  And just as messy,  if it comes to war with Russia.  I've already told you what is going to happen if/when Putin topples.  So,  how is THAT worse than any other overt war with Russia?  Quit being so f***ing timid dealing with Putin!

Think about it!  Then vote for somebody who will actually do something that makes any sense!  Few currently in office qualify,  from either party.  Party does NOT matter!  You want somebody who will actually DO something!  Period!  End of issue!

You have ALWAYS HAD TERM LIMITS!  No Constitutional amendment is necessary!

Stop voting for incumbents who won't do anything about the problems we face!  Once you know the incumbent won't do anything,  vote for his opponent.  Party doesn't matter.  Multiple terms in office leading to corruption does matter.  

You CANNOT do worse by voting for "the other guy"!  You MIGHT do better!  Keep this "throw-the-bastards-out" philosophy up,  until someone actually does what needs to be done!  Then keep him,  but only until he gets corrupted.  And he will!

Update 4-27-2022:  

Putin is now threatening to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if "we" (The US and NATO) don't stop shipping weapons to Ukraine.  What he screams loudest about is what he fears most.  The words he uses do not matter,  it is the action:  the attempted extortion to stop the weapons shipments.  

Shipping them the really heavy stuff,  and in mass quantities,  is exactly what we need to do!  That will cause Putin's invasion to be a military failure,  and help speed his toppling by revolution at home.  (This could be over even quicker,  if we gave the Ukrainians some napalm to use on the supply convoys and the massed artillery and rocket-launcher positions.  As indicated above,  I checked on the legality of that under international law.) 

I have already predicted that Putin will lash out at the west with a few nuclear weapons as he topples.  That is inevitable.  He may also use a tactical nuke or two in Ukraine,  before his invasion fails there.  That is also almost inevitable now.  Putin has no qualms about using such weapons,  but he does have a longstanding policy of using them to prevent defeat. 

The "trick" here is distinguishing a small number of ballistic missiles from a mass attack.  That puts a razor edge on the possibility of this needless war turning into the all-out nuclear disaster we have always feared and avoided.  The cold war-era symmetrical reluctance to commit nuclear suicide no longer obtains.  And THAT is why Putin is so dangerous to us all!  This is a war warning!

As I said above,  there is no discernible difference between this situation and the beginnings of WW2 in Europe.  Putin is a ruthless clone of Adolf Hitler,  and he will not stop until opposed in force,  or until he is dead.  Learn from history,  or be destroyed by this madman's reckless actions.  

Simple as that!  And just as hard to learn as it was in 1939. 

Update 5-18-2022:  I see no reason to change the original article or any of the updates.  I see plenty of reason to change politicians serving in office who are screwing around not getting this job done,  by either impeachment or by election.  

Update 7-7-2022:  I still see no reason to change anything so far.  Only an addition:  there are two budding Hitler clones that we face,  not just Putin in Russia.  The other is in China,  and he has a far larger economy and military establishment behind him.  He is the bigger threat.

He is watching:  if Putin conquers Ukraine,  he will invade Taiwan,  which will start WW3 by bringing the US into direct conflict with China.  If Putin is unsuccessful,  he won't be so eager to invade Taiwan.  So Putin must be unsuccessful,  there is no choice here!

The parallels to WW2 are almost too close:  Putin trying to conquer territories more-or-less unopposed in Europe,  with the more massive threat China starting a war with the US in the Pacific,  with a Pearl Harbor-like attack on Taiwan.  

Once again,  you have been warned!

Ukraine needs napalm bombs and the attack planes to carry them,  to stop Putin.  Just get on with it!


  1. What Putin really wants is an end to the international sanctions Russia received for taking the Crimea and for the West to recognize that Crimea as part of Russia. Ending the sanctions would finally allow Exon to help Russia in exploiting its arctic oil resources which are estimated to be worth over a trillion dollars.

    But, IMO, there appears to be no way the Ukraine will accept the Crimea as part of Russia-- unless Russia signs a non aggression treaty with the Ukraine and Russian financially compensates the Ukraine for taking the Crimea.

    Oddly, I think there is a way for the Ukraine and the West to recognize the Crimea as Russian territory and for Russia to end its hostilities with the Ukraine and for the sanctions against Russia to end-- if Japan is brought into the negotiations.

    Japan still wants Russia to return the islands of Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan, and Habomai that the USSR took after World War II.

    Japan should give Russia $10 billion for the return of the islands. And Russia should give the Ukraine the $10 billion in compensation for taking the Crimea. The Ukraine should also agree not to join NATO if Russia also agrees to end hostilities and end support for Russian separatist. And Japan and the West should agree to end sanctions against Russia.

    The Ukraine wins by getting $10 billion from Russia originally give to Russia by Japan. Japan wins by getting its four islands back. Russia wins by getting international sanctions ended so its economy can really start growing again.


  2. Cannot argue with what you say. However, that outcome which you promote leaves us without a Russia with which to help us confront the real threat of China. -- GW

    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    2. I welcome the competition from China as a wake up call for the US to finally get its economic act together. The NASA budget, for instance, should be raised to at least $30 billion a year. And the US needs to prioritize revitalizing its sea vessel building industry (the US use to be the number one ship builders in the world).

      But the best way to deal with China, IMO, is for the US on other free nations to start an economic free trade zone amongst democracies (no tariffs on imports from free and democratic nations higher than 10%). But the US needs to significantly raise tariffs on China and other authoritarian nations (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc.). And I'd raise tariffs on all imports from China to at least 50%-- and even higher if they threaten their neighbors.

      There's plenty of extremely cheap educated foreign labor in democratic India (1.3 billion people) who will be placing their first astronauts in space in the near future and in former Soviet Republics such as the Ukraine and Moldova (Over 43 million people combined), Indonesia (270 million), and in South Africa (60 million people). There's plenty of cheap foreign labor out there amongst free nations, we don't need fascist China.

  3. Mr. Williams,
    That might well have worked - if GNM had stuck with Korea rather than selling itself and much of the US auto industry to China.
    Your assessment represents an unfortunate misunderstanding of the processes going on and underestimates the severe negative impact on GM and the US.
    But you can take comfort in knowing most US business schools have made precisely that same mistake over the last 10+ years.
    As a clue:

  4. A Russian invasion of the is NOT what is happening.
    The Ukrainian leadership knows this, Those who are "not conversant with Richard" on the last few decades of relevant negotiations between Russia and the Ukraine will probably believe the story line being fed to us now.
    Patience is a required virtue at this point.

    1. It would appear by 2-24 that events are proving you wrong. Russia is invading the Ukraine. Just as I said they would, in my opinion piece.

  5. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  6. Russia has no business parking it's nation near all those US bases.
    The same goes for Iran.
    I'm not trying to start an argument and I would like the world to be a place where wars were unnecessary but this is a real world and not all our wishes come true.

    I can't remember if we communicated before but I dropped out of the hobby ramjet experiments and discussions after 9/11. My ramjet first-stage for model rocketry would have looked like a surface to air missile. At the time I worked for the USAF at Edwards AFB and the location I wanted to launch from was close enough to set off their sensors. Plus strong restrictions on model rocketry were introduced. Now I'm retired, living in SW Idaho, and learning to grow potatoes though I miss the excitement of those earlier days. I stumbled onto this blog and couldn't stop myself. I'm glad ramjets have not been forgotten. Glenn

    1. Well, having worked on them, I have not forgotten ramjets. Can't say that about DOD though. I would point out that the European Meteor is pretty much equivalent to the ramjet AMRAAM that the US DOD never built, after decades of work toward it. GW

  7. Google translates this from Russian as "slander and lies". The author name does not match the language, however. I presume it is meant to apply to the article itself. You are entitled to your opinion. Mine is different, and hopefully facts-based. GW