Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Bounding Analyses for TSTO

Update 4-8-2024:  Should any readers want to learn how to do what I do (estimating performance of launch rockets or other space vehicles),   be aware that I have created a series of short courses in how to go about these analyses,  complete with effective tools for actually carrying it out.  These course materials are available for free from a drop box that can be accessed from the Mars Society’s “New Mars” forums,  located at http://newmars.com/forums/,  in the “Acheron labs” section,  “interplanetary transportation” topic,  and conversation thread titled “orbital mechanics class traditional”.  You may have scroll down past all the “sticky notes”. 

The first posting in that thread has a list of the classes available,  and these go far beyond just the two-body elementary orbital mechanics of ellipses.  There are the empirical corrections for losses to be covered,  approaches to use for estimating entry descent and landing on bodies with atmospheres,  and spreadsheet-based tools for estimating the performance of rocket engines and rocket vehicles.  The same thread has links to all the materials in the drop box. 

The New Mars forums would also welcome your participation.  Send an email to newmarsmember@gmail.com to find out how to join up.

A lot of the same information from those short courses is available scattered among the postings here.  There is a sort of “technical catalog” article that I try to main current.  It is titled “Lists of Some Articles by Topic Area”,  posted 21 October 2021.  There are categories for ramjet and closely-related,  aerothermodynamics and heat transfer,  rocket ballistics and rocket vehicle performance articles (of specific interest here),  asteroid defense articles,  space suits and atmospheres articles,  radiation hazard articles,  pulsejet articles,  articles about ethanol and ethanol blends in vehicles,  automotive care articles,  articles related to cactus eradication,  and articles related to towed decoys.  All of these are things that I really did. 

To access quickly any article on this site,  use the blog archive tool on the left.  All you need is the posting date and the title.  Click on the year,  then click on the month,  then click on the title if need be (such as if multiple articles were posted that month).  Visit the catalog article and just jot down those you want to go see.

Within any article,  you can see the figures enlarged,  by the expedient of just clicking on a figure.  You can scroll through all the figures at greatest resolution in an article that way,  although the figure numbers and titles are lacking.  There is an “X-out” top right that takes you right back to the article itself. 

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I also want to keep this one fairly short.  The ascent-averaged and vacuum specific impulses for the propulsion presumed here,  came from earlier analyses of various engines contained in other articles posted on this site.   What I did here was to first size an all-expendable two-stage to orbit (TSTO) vehicle as a baseline,  then afterwards,  look at two different ways to make the first stage recoverable and reusable.  Then I compared those to previous single stage to orbit (SSTO) results.

The basic mission is surface launch to low Earth orbit (LEO) at about 300 km altitude,  eastward at low inclination,  as illustrated in Figure 1.    The surface circular orbit speed 7.9 km/s is the “ideal speed” to reach,  which covers the effects of both the kinetic energy of the speed at that altitude,  and the potential energy of being at that altitude. 

There is a staging point that is just barely exo-atmospheric in terms of the rather modest ascent speeds reached at that point (and which is not at all “exo-atmospheric” in terms of orbital speeds at only around 50-60 km altitude).  This stage point for the expendable baseline was presumed to be at 2 km/s,  and very nearly horizontal locally.  I estimated 5.6% each, for gravity and drag losses,  at 0.45 km/s each,  to be covered by adding to required delta-vee (dV).  That makes the min mass ratio-effective dV to “barely reach LEO” 8.8 km/s.   To which must be added a presumed rendezvous dV budget of 0.6 km/s,  and a deorbit dV of 0.1 km/s,  for a total expendable mission dV = 9.5 km/s.

Figure 1 – The Basic Mission Parameters and Possible Design Approaches

In the expendable baseline,  the first stage must accelerate from zero to the staging velocity Vstg,  and shoulder essentially 100% of the drag loss,  and a presumed 80% of the gravity loss.  It does this while carrying the fully-loaded second stage as its payload,  complete with the payload shroud protecting the actual payload during atmospheric ascent.  Note that the second stage shoulders a presumed 20% of the gravity loss,  and none of the drag loss;  not “right”,  but well in the ballpark.

In only the recoverable/reusable first stage scenarios,  the first stage coasts downrange toward an atmospheric entry at essentially the staging speed (approximately Mach 7).  To be recovered as an exposed aluminum structure item,  this stage must decelerate to an acceptable entry speed,  presumed to be 2.5 Mach,  and deploy grid fins to keep it below Mach 3 in the thin air,  and a terminal speed of only about Mach 2.5 in the thicker air close to the surface.   To land retro-propulsively,  it must “kill” the 2.5 Mach terminal speed of about 0.75 km/s,  factored up by 1.5 to cover any losses plus a budget for hovering-and-diverting clear of obstacles.

There would seem to be two ways to “redesign” the expendable baseline for first stage recovery and reuse.  First,  one might offload some payload from an otherwise fully-loaded second stage,  which lightens the second stage and increases its share of the mission dV,  while reducing the ascent dV requirement on the first stage,  due to both the decrease in payload mass,  and the decrease in staging velocity.   Second stage recovery was not considered,  since it must be a real entry vehicle.

Second,  one keeps the payload and second stage exactly the same as the baseline,  and just increases the size of the first stage,  so that it also has enough propellant to land.  Going into this,  my preconceived notion was the larger first stage would be slightly more favorable in terms of overall payload fraction,  because I thought we would have to offload around half the payload.

More details of exactly how I went about about the baseline design,  and the two re-designs for first stage recovery,  are shown in Figure 2.  I used a fixed 10 metric tons of baseline delivered payload. 

Figure 2 – The Best Design Analysis Notions and Baseline Data Going Into This Study

The baseline design was done using simple rocket equation calculations in a spreadsheet,  to include kinematic acceleration requirements on both stages to determine overall stage thrust requirements.  Being only a bounding calculation,  I did not size numbers of engines and their individual thrusts and turndown ratios.   Modest propulsion technologies being presumed,  pressure turndown ratios might be in the 2 to 2.5 class.  Thrust turndown ratios would be similar in vacuum,  and a bit more at sea level. 

The baseline analysis used in both stages a presumed inert/ignition mass fraction of 4% (0.04),  pretty much representative of bare aluminum alloy tankage exposed as the stage airframes.  The dV requirements and effective exhaust velocities Vex determine mass ratio MR = exp(dV/Vex) for each stage,  from which the propellant/ignition mass fraction can be computed as 1 – 1/MR. 

The payload/ignition mass fraction is then 1 – inert fraction – propellant fraction.  Then the payload mass and payload fraction determine the ignition mass,  from which then everything else in the weight statement scales.  Vex scales from input Isp as Vex = gc * Isp / 1000. 

This calculation,  done for the two stages with the second stage as the payload for the first,  is quite simple as illustrated in Figure 3.  Note that the payload shroud is jettisoned at staging.  The “overall payload fraction” is the actual delivered payload mass divided by the complete launch vehicle ignition mass.  Note also that gees estimated at stage burnout masses are acceptable without throttling-down or shutting-down engines,  being under 4 gees.   This thing sized out near 138 metric tons at launch,  for a 10-ton payload delivery,  about half the size of a Falcon-9.  Under these analysis conditions,  it shows just over 7% delivered payload,  relative to launch mass. 

Figure 3 – The Baseline Expendable Vehicle Results

The re-design calculations are a bit more complex,  but are still done the same way with the rocket equation and some kinematic acceleration constraints for the stages,  that bound the thrust levels.    For those,  the first thing to do was to copy the stage weight statements and thrust results into new worksheets,  and then copy the dV items for a reanalysis of dV requirements,  that includes those for stage 1 recovery.  To this I added a revision analysis for the lower stage inerts,  to account for adding grid fins and landing legs.  Values for these are simply presumed,  and added to the expendable stage inert mass value.   Also,  one has to iterate the payload reduction to produce the same total propellant mass in the first stage,  but with an increased stage inert mass.

There are also added kinematic requirements on the first stage during its unladen descent.  The min thrust needs to be a bit less than the dry-tanks burnout weight,  so that it can gently set down.  That also enables hover at thrust equal to weight.  The max thrust relates to how soon the landing burn begins.  I simply arbitrarily set it to 2 gees,  for an effective 1 gee kinematic rate over gravity.

These worksheets include a revised dV analysis that includes the descent dV for stage 1,  located on the right of the worksheet.  For the reduced-payload approach,  I had to let the staging velocity shift downwards,  responding to the greater dV capability of the second stage at reduced payload.  This reduced the first stage ascent dV requirement,  accomplished on the laden weight statement.  The descent dV requirement has to be met unladen,  which determines the descent propellant requirement,  that must be carried as if it were payload during the ascent.   See Figure 3.   What surprised me was how little payload I had to offload,  which then had very little effect on the overall payload fraction,  still being about 7%.  The launch weight only increased by about a ton. 

Figure 4 – The Reduced-Payload Approach Results

For the larger-first-stage approach,  the payload and second stage are entirely unchanged,  and the first stage need only be large enough to accommodate both the ascent dV laden,  and the descent dV unladen.  See Figure 5.  Again,  you do the first stage descent first to determine the descent propellant,  in turn carried as if it were added payload during the first stage ascent.  I actually did this larger first stage analysis first,  developing the basic format.  Then I copied it to the reduced-payload worksheet and modified it into that analysis.  

I was surprised to see the smaller overall payload fraction nearer 6%,  but in retrospect,  the larger first stage increases the launch mass significantly (nearer 164 tons compared to the original 138 tons),  so the payload fraction reduction should not have been such a surprise.   There is no iteration in this approach,  we are simply up-sizing the first stage to a larger propellant mass and inert mass. 

Figure 5 – The Bigger First Stage Approach Results

Results and Recommendations

Because the overall propellant fraction fell more when upsizing the first stage,  than it did reducing payload mass,  I have to recommend reducing payload mass as the better design approach to making an expendable first stage recoverable and reusable!  This is in fact exactly what SpaceX did with their Falcons,  when they made the first stage cores recoverable and reusable,  although their recovery path proceeds back up-range,  while what I analyzed here leads to recovery far downrange.  They have to offload more payload to make that workbecause the first stage descent dV requirements are substantially higher when reversing flight direction.

To Summarize: 

If designing all-expendable vehicles,  I can get up to about 5% payload fraction out of a LOX-LH2 SSTO with modest engine technology and a good compromise-bell conventional nozzle (based on the previous SSTO article).  I can get about 7% payload fraction out of a TSTO that uses LOX-LH2 modest technology vacuum engines in the second stage,  and LOX-RP1 modest technology compromise-bell engines in the first stage.  The expendable TSTO and SSTO should be more-or-less competitive with each other,  but not with any renewable technologies.  The costs of thrown-away hardware will be too high to compete.

Of the possibilities to make the first stage of the TSTO recoverable and reusable,  I can offload just a tad of payload and recover the first stage far downrange for re-use.  The payload fraction actually stays near 7% doing that (it would drop if I recovered up-range)!  It drops to about 6% if I up-size the first stage instead (and would also drop further if recovering up-range).  The expendable SSTO just cannot compete with either one of those,  having both a lower payload fraction and much more hardware thrown away (first stages and SSTO’s have many engines,  second stages have few).

As the previous SSTO article listed among the references below indicates,  there is no possibility of a reusable SSTO that is chemically powered,  with more than about 1% payload,  if even that. 

References

All of these listed below are earlier articles posted on this site that relate to this topic in some way.  Use the blog archive on the left side of this page as a fast navigation tool to find them quickly.  All you need is the article title and its posting date.  Click on the year,  then on the month,  then on the title if more than one article was posted that month.  The 2-4-23 article (bold italic) has a lot of the earlier propulsion work used here.  The other 11-12-18 article (also bold italic) was the first to explore free expansion designs as an alternative to conventional bells.  The bold italic 4-2-24 article at the top of the list,  is the previous SSTO bounding study. 

4-2-24                 Bounding Calculations for SSTO Concepts (compared to TSTO in this article)

3-3-24                 Launch to Low Earth Orbit:  1 or 2 Stages?

3-4-24                 Launch to Low Earth Orbit: Fixed Geometry Options

6-20-23               TSTO Launch Fundamentals

2-4-23                 Rocket Nozzle Types (bells and aerospikes)

10-1-22               Rocket Engine Calculations

2-9-21                 Rocket Vehicle Performance Spreadsheet

2-16-20               Solid Rocket Analysis (solid ballistics and more)

11-12-18             How Propulsion Nozzles Work

 


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