Where You Get Your “Facts” Matters!

This is another one I found on LinkedIn that I thought I would post here.  As readers of this blog already know,  I often say “you are entitled to your own opinions,  but you are NOT entitled to your own facts”. 

Most of the totally-unregulated right-wing social media,  many cable television news outlets,  and most infamously on broadcast and cable television Fox News,  are all well-known purveyors of lies and conspiracy theories.  About 30% of which was planted there by the Russians to divide us,  and successfully,  as near as I can tell.  My opinion of the veracity of Fox News has been in the toilet for about 30+ years now.  To me,  they are “Faux News”.

So,  if you who get your “facts” from such sources want to be smarter than most dogs,  please come out of your echo chambers and look around elsewhere!

On the new Iran war

Update 7-1-2025:  The Waco "Tribune-Herald" newspaper today published a version of the original article just below,  as a board of contributors opinion piece (I am on that board).  It was hardly edited at all.  The recent update below was not included,  not being in the original submittal as a column.

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Original article written 6-23-2025:

It would seem likely that we are starting down the path to another long Mideast war,  with no clear end in sight,  despite what government officials claim.  Netanyahu started this,  desperately wanting Trump to join in,  despite his campaign pledge not to,  and he did!  Israel did not have the means to hit the deeply buried facilities,  and we did,  which is why this has taken place. 

Iran’s regime is a set of terrorists,  masquerading as religious clerics,  using a private army (the Revolutionary Guard) to stay in power as a dictatorship,  and abusing religion to justify to their captive people the evils they have long done.  They have been sending out terrorist proxy armies to do their dirty work for about 4 decades now.   I think most people would have to agree with that entire assessment. 

There never was any realistic hope of negotiating an end to the Iranian nuclear weapon program,  because we are dealing with terrorists,  not any sort of people who value logic or the safety of their country and its people.  The previous nuclear agreement only slowed their pace,  until Trump abrogated it in his first term. 

It accelerated since then.  They now have a stockpile of reportedly-60% enriched uranium,  which was evacuated from the sites before Trump bombed them! 

So all the pieces for an Iranian atomic bomb are still in place,  despite the bombing,  including the terrorist government so desperate to have those weapons!  Contrary to the claims in the news reports,  you do not have to have 90% enrichment to build an atomic bomb!  Anything over 50% will work! 

Although,  for the same yield,  much smaller devices can be built at 90% than 50%.  This is no secret,  it’s been in public libraries since I first read it there as a young boy,  more than 65 years ago. 

Regime change in Iran was the one and only realistic hope of actually putting a stop to the Iranian atomic bomb!  And now Netanyahu and Trump have made that very much harder to accomplish,  turning the Iranian people against us by bombing their country,  and killing civilians in the process.  Plus,  the regime’s leaders have now gone into hiding,  so that we cannot easily take them out anymore. 

The right way to have done this would have been to support the Iranian people to rise up and do their own regime change from within,  without making enemies of them by bombing their country!  They would just need help overcoming the Revolutionary Guard.  Which without a war going on,  actually could have been done with targeted air strikes.

The Iranian people tried insurrection once before,  during Obama’s administration,  but failed,  because we failed to aid them.  Now,  such a scenario is no longer possible.  The only regime change now possible will have to be imposed from outside,  with boots on the ground,  and against a civil population rallying to defend their government from foreign attackers. 

You can “thank” Netanyahu and Trump for that really ugly prospect!  Although,  “blame” is a better word.

Any child who has passed grade school social studies (taught up to standard,  not just “to the test”) could have predicted some,  or even all,  of this.  But apparently neither Netanyahu nor Trump understood the likely results of their actions,  and apparently they still don’t. 

That conclusion is based on what they have done,  not anything either of them said.  Remember,  you can always tell when a politician is lying:  his lips are moving. 

I think both our countries have the wrong governments.  The Iranians are not the only ones in need of regime change.

Update 6-25-2025:  The cease fire between Iran and Israel seems to be holding,  after some initial violations.  I am surprised but pleased to see it.  It means maybe we have avoided getting into another endless war,  at least for a little while.

Meanwhile,  intelligence reports are still quite sparse,  but some seem to indicate that what I said above is true:  the Iranians managed to move out some of their enriched uranium and related equipment before the attack took place.  That is a thing that President Trump really hates to hear,  because it directly conflicts with his chest-thumping. 

Long term,  do not expect this cease fire to lead to any sort of permanent peace!  You are not dealing with normal political people as Iran’s government.  You are dealing with fanatical terrorists!  They will say anything and do anything,  that lets them continue their evil activities,  including building nuclear weapons.  Their history over the last 4 decades says so. 

The only permanent solution here was,  is,  and always will be,  regime change in Iran!  Unfortunately,  that will henceforth be hellishly difficult,  now that there has been a direct war to alienate the civil population.  Plus,  the ruling mullahs and the Revolutionary Guard private army that keeps them in power,  both survive intact.

Photo from Maxar showing immediately-visible damage: 

Other photos taken a day or two before the strike show a lot of unusual roadway truck activity.  Presumably,  that was truck traffic evacuating the materials and equipment,  anticipating a coming strike. 

Update 6-29-2025:  The continuing variance among intelligence reports within and without the government very strongly suggests that the US bombing did great damage to Iran's nuclear weapon efforts,  but did not "obliterate it",  as Trump insists.  In fact,  he gets quite angry with those who disagree with him over this,  clear evidence of his fragile but enormous ego.  

I think the truth lies somewhere in between the extremes of the various assessments,  including ALL of them,  even the first one Trump claimed to be "leaked".  We set them back by somewhere between a few to several (or many) months.  I also rather think that those Maxar photos showing heavy truck traffic at the Fordow site just before the strike,  indicate that the Iranians got at least some of their enriched uranium out,  and hid it elsewhere.  And maybe some centrifuges,  too.

Bear in mind,  please,  that further enrichment beyond their 60% is not necessary to build a workable nuclear weapon,  it's just that the weapon will be very large and heavy,  much like our first generation devices were.  If too heavy for their rockets,  they could always deliver it as a suicide truck bomb.  Think about that!

Regime change in Iran is the only long term solution for this threat,  exactly as I said above in the article!   And Trump and Netanyahu have made that very difficult indeed,  by starting this war,  cease fire or not.  The Iranian people will now tend to rally behind their government against foreign attackers,  despite its brutal history of oppressing them.  That's just human tribal nature. 

Starship Explosion

Update 7-5-2025:  search code 23062025.

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From AIAA’s “Daily Launch” email newsletter for Monday,  6-23-2025.  This ship was intended for Flight Test 10.  It blew up before they ever ignited the engines.  Quote: 

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SpaceX traces Starship test-stand explosion to failure of pressurized nitrogen tank

By Mike Wall published 3 days ago  (on Space.com)

"Initial analysis indicates the potential failure of a pressurized tank known as a COPV."

 

SpaceX thinks it knows why its newest Starship spacecraft went boom this week.

The 171-foot-tall (52-meter-tall) vehicle exploded on a test stand at SpaceX's Starbase site late Wednesday night (June 18) as the company was preparing to ignite its six Raptor engines in a "static fire" trial.

 

A day later, SpaceX narrowed in on a likely cause.

 

"Initial analysis indicates the potential failure of a pressurized tank known as a COPV, or composite overwrapped pressure vessel, containing gaseous nitrogen in Starship's nosecone area, but the full data review is ongoing," the company wrote in an update on Thursday (June 19).

 

"There is no commonality between the COPVs used on Starship and SpaceX's Falcon rockets," the company added. So, launches of the workhorse Falcon 9, which has already flown 75 times in 2025, should not be affected.

 

The Starship explosion did not cause any reported injuries; all SpaceX personnel at Starbase are safe, according to the update. People living around the site, which is near the border city of Brownsville, shouldn't be worried about contamination from the incident, SpaceX said.

"Previous independent tests conducted on materials inside Starship, including toxicity analyses, confirm they pose no chemical, biological, or toxicological risks," the company wrote. "SpaceX is coordinating with local, state, and federal agencies, as appropriate, on matters concerning environmental and safety impacts."

That said, the explosion did damage the area around the test stand, which is at Starbase's Massey site (not the orbital launch mount area, from which Starship lifts off).

"The explosion ignited several fires at the test site which remains clear of personnel and will be assessed once it has been determined to be safe to approach," SpaceX wrote in the update. "Individuals should not attempt to approach the area while safing operations continue."

Wednesday night's explosion occurred during preparations for Starship's 10th flight test, which SpaceX had hoped to launch by the end of the month. (Static fires are common prelaunch tests, performed to ensure that engines are ready to fly.) That timeline will now shift to the right, though it's not clear at the moment by how much.

The incident was the latest in a series of setbacks for Starship upper stages. SpaceX lost the vehicle — also known as Ship — on the last three Starship flight tests, which launched in January, March and May of this year.

Starship's first stage, called Super Heavy, has a better track record of late. For example, on Flight 7 and Flight 8, the huge booster successfully returned to Starbase, where it was caught by the launch tower's "chopstick" arms as planned.

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My take:  if the description “in the nosecone” for the location of the COPV is correct,  then it is located very close to the oxygen header tank (as the version 1 with 1200 metric tons propellant capacity was laid out),  which is also in the nose of the vehicle,  ahead of the “cargo bay” area.  Such a COPV explosion would easily rupture that oxygen header tank.  Compressed gases drive great explosive violence (with shrapnel) when such vessels burst.  See Figure 1.

Figure 1 – Inboard Profile of Starship Version 1

There would seem to be an oxygen header tank transfer piping line down the windward “belly” of the cargo bay section,  based on descriptions I have read.  In the explosion slow-motion video,  the cargo bay splits open through its heat shield,  right where that transfer line supposedly is,  with gush of something white (not fire) bursting through,  followed immediately by an explosion engulfing about the top half of the vehicle,  and a second or so later by a second explosion seemingly centered lower down.    

The main propellant tanks below the cargo bay would be the main methane tank forward,  with the methane header tank located inside,  at the base of that tank,  and finally the main oxygen tank,  just ahead of the engine bay.  The upgraded version 2 has a bigger propellant capacity,  but should be laid out similarly.  

I would hazard the guess that the COPV explosion and bursting oxygen header tank somehow put a large force on the transfer line,  which split open the belly at the cargo bay,  allowing liquid (and vapor) oxygen out through that split,  as well as releasing a few tons of liquid oxygen to fall down on top of the main methane tank. 

My guess is that spilled header oxygen and vented methane vapors are much of the first explosion.  Bear in mind that the impact of a few tons of liquid oxygen on the top of the main methane tank would rupture it as well,  adding some fuel to that first explosion pulse.  That first explosion pulse would massively rupture the main methane tank,  and also likely the main oxygen tank below it.  That’s the second pulse of the explosion,  which was larger and longer,  reflecting the larger mass of reactants. 

All of that scenario is just an educated guess on my part. 

As for the nitrogen tank,  said to be a “COPV”,  or “composite overwrapped pressure vessel”,  maybe that is not the right choice this early in the flight test program.  Such a design is a metal shell that is simply too thin to hold the pressure,  overwrapped by a yarn or fabric-reinforced composite material,  to bring it up to strength at a lighter weight. 

Here’s the problem:  no composite material has a large plastic (post-yield) strain capability.  If the COPV over-pressures for any reason whatsoever,  failure will be sudden,  without any warning!  Maybe a heavier all-metal nitrogen tank,  one with much more plastic strain capability,  would be a better choice until the other bugs all get worked out.  At least you could see it stretch before it explodes.  You do not want to fly even experimentally,  with too many possible failure modes!  See Figure 2.  

Figure 2 – Stress-Strain Curves for Low and High Plastic Strain Capability

Lots of things look good “on paper”,  but there are a lot of other things to worry about,  many of which cannot be put on that paper.  This is where the “older hands”,  with many years of school-of-hard-knocks experiences,  can be effectively very much wiser than youngsters fresh out of school.  SpaceX has no “old hands” on its staff:  they hire no one over about age 40 or 45.  There’s no gray heads visible anywhere in that organization.

PS:  note in Figure 1 the "typical" inert mass of the Starship Version 1 upper stage,  as 120 metric tons.  I do not have a figure for the Version 2 inert mass,  but it simply cannot be very much different from Version 1!  They are all built the same way.  The hearsay bandied about on the internet,  about 80 tons,  or even less,  is simply BS!

History Does Not Repeat, But It Does Rhyme!

This is an improved variation on something I already posted.  It was created by putting two photos together into one illustration,  and then I labeled it appropriately,  using epithets I found on-line (that others came up with). 

We all already know what evils this regime is doing.  So,  the image I created needs no further explanation!  Too many do not learn from history! 

Update 6-18-2025:  My wife found this one on her Facebook page.  It’s too funny not to add here.

Trump Cognition?

The vast difference between understanding what the job of President really is,  and what Trump actually does and says,  makes one wonder what he really understands about anything.  If he’s this bad now,  how bad off will he be 4 years from now?  Think about THAT!

86 47 

Hegseth the Incompetent

This one makes fun of the security breach mess created by the demonstrably-incompetent Pete Hegseth,  whom the Senate should NEVER have approved for Secretary of Defense!  The only one I can think of who is even more demonstrably incompetent is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services,  although there are several others very nearly as bad as Hegseth!  

Kennedy the vaccine denier is going to get a lot of people killed by doing lot of very stupid things.  Probably even a greater death toll than Musk and his DOGE are going to cause.  And that’s a lot of dead people!  

It starts with Hegseth sending the Marines to the LA protests.  One has to wonder who actually paid the hired rioters to cause trouble.  Could it actually have been the Trump cult who hired the “ringers”,  trying to make Trump opponents look bad?  (That’s almost what Jan. 6 2021 was.)

86 47 

Getting Rid of the Opposition

This is where we are headed if Trump can overcome the courts trying to stop him when Congress won’t. 

86 47

Trump Parade?

There are many who would prefer to see this procession instead of the expensive “Army birthday parade” at Trump’s insistence in DC on Flag Day (June 14^th),  a thing he has wanted since his first term.  To opponents of Trump,  this would actually be funny.  

It would be even funnier for Trump opponents if the associated headstone were to look like this:

These are among the “funnies” I have found on-line.  There are quite a lot of them.  It’s nice to know I am not alone in opposing Trump. 

86 47

Update 6-10-2025:  I seem not to be alone in my opinions here.  I found this on-line:

My federal rep voted to defund Sesame Street.  Based on past actions,  I believe my federal senators will also vote that way,  too.  And I will not forget their perfidy!

86 47,  and all the minions,  too,  plus the Trump cult majorities in the House and Senate! 

We do not need a “fearless leader” cult dictatorship,  which is really what Trump offers.  I’d rather get rid of them at the ballot box,  than by revolution in the streets.  Less mess to clean up afterward.  

History May Not Repeat, But …

This is the face of fascism (absolutism,  neo-Nazism,  autocratic rule,  dictatorship,  you choose a word) in America today:

That’s not exactly the same as anything I have done or said,  but it is what the New Republic thought strongly enough to make a cover of it.  And I do in fact agree with them,  as some of my earlier articles clearly indicate.  

As the title of this article says,  history may not actually repeat itself,  but it sure as hell rhymes a lot.  Read on. 

I found these other two illustrations below,  on-line for free download.  Along with some rather amusing epithets for Trump and his government,  misbehaving illegally,  un-Constitutionally,  and anti-democratically the way they do.  In my opinion,  the very best of these epithets are:

               Agolf $hitler                 rhymes with Adolf Hitler

and

               The Turd Reich            rhymes with The Third Reich

Where I came across these is in the two illustrations below.  I hope you find them as funny as I did.  Although,  given the dangers this regime poses to America,  this is gallows humor.  The first one tries to show the truth vs the lies Trump tells about Biden,  and the funny is at the very bottom of it.

 

I did see at least one mistyped number in the image just above,  but that makes no difference to the point it is making about the propaganda lies with which we are inundated.  Virtually everything ever claimed by this bunch,  when actually fact-checked,  is not just false,  but the majority of these are actually “pants on fire” lies.  There are thousands upon thousands of such lies. 

The next one is even funnier,  at least to me.  This is a photo someone took of a billboard somebody else put up.  On-line,  I found out you could get shirts and other stuff imprinted with what’s on that billboard.  The choice of faces makes this “Turd Reich” assessment actually a multi-national problem.  

But I will say this:  Trump has appointed a lot of incompetent,  unqualified turds to lead various government agencies.  Which actually makes the funny into something quite accurate!

I have sent several messages to all three of my federal representation asking them to do something to remove this crowd from our government,  before their “policies” and mismanagement start killing us by the 10’s of thousands (and they soon will,  while driving the rest of us into unemployed poverty). 

My representative and senators have done nothing I can see,  which to my way of thinking makes them complicit in these crimes,  up to and including treason of the “aid and comfort” type.  I have told them that,  too.

I am but one voice,  easily lost in the multitude. 

The rest of you need to inundate your representatives and senators with similar messages,  so that they know that they,  too,  will suffer the fate of traitors and murderers,  if they fail to act.

86 47,  and the sooner the better.

Only One Felon Here!

I’m unsure where I found this,  but it is too good not to share.  It is both true and funny,  in a gallows humor sort of way.  

And this other one just below is closely related. 

There’s only been a few verified cases of illegal aliens actually committing crimes here.  Certainly less than a hundred or so,  although they get ballyhooed into the public thinking there are lots of evil criminals among about a hundred thousand immigrants in any given year. 

But when you get right down to it,  Trump,  with his pardons of almost two thousand convicted criminals who were also among his supporters,  has set loose far more criminals upon America!  Far beyond any among the illegal immigrants!  And at least a handful of those Trump pardoned have already been re-arrested for committing yet more crimes!

And then there is all the other Trump corruption,  plus all the defying of the courts,  and the general disregard of the law and the Constitution. 

So,  what did you-the-majority expect when you elected a convicted felon who wants to rule over you as a dictator?  You are getting EXACTLY what you voted for!  Including the distinct possibility of never having a real election to vote in,  ever again!

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Update 6-7-2025:  I see "they" finally brought Kilmar Garcia back to the US,  but NOT because the courts told them to!  They did it to file charges against him for "transporting illegal immigrants",  based on people in the vehicle with him that had no luggage,  in a 2022 traffic stop.  (In Tennessee,  I think it was.)  This is our Trump-weaponized DOJ violating the law by not doing what the courts ordered,  but instead persecuting further an immigrant they already abused!

SpaceX “Starship” Flight Test 9

Update 6-3-2025:  A close version of this article ran in today's Waco "Tribune-Herald" as a column on the opinion page.  

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The recent Flight 9 test resulted in the loss of both the upper stage spaceship and the lower stage booster.  A lot of stories class this as just another failure in a series of three,  but it is a little more complicated than that. 

The “Superheavy” booster portion of this test was actually a lot more successful than many believe.  They never intended to recover this one,  instead choosing to stress it possibly to destruction,  on a return flight profile that was likely fatal.  And that is exactly what happened.

On the plus side,  this was the very first re-flight of the reusable “Superheavy” booster.  This very same stage launched the Flight 7 “Starship” test,  with most of those 33 engines reused on this Flight 9 test.  What was “new” on Flight 9 was twofold:  (1) the deliberate overstress return,  and (2) the demonstration of a “quick flip” during hot staging. 

The “quick flip” was entirely successful!  Until this flight,  after staging,  the booster would flip slowly using only vectored thrust from a few of its engines,  which also settled the propellants in the tanks so that the engine pumps could maintain a good suction. 

This time around,  the hot stage ring that protects the forward end of “Superheavy” from the hot blast of “Starship’s” engines during staging,  was built to an asymmetric shape,  so that “Starship’s” exhaust was deflected out one side only.  The force of that asymmetric exhaust deflection flipped “Superheavy” around much faster,  saving propellant for the landing.  That was completely successful!

The stressful return involved flying the booster at an angle to the oncoming wind,  instead of streamlining straight in,  tail first.  That being off-angle increases the aerodynamic drag,  so that less braking propellant might be used.  But,  there are structural limits to how much off-angle is survivable. 

They found that limit experimentally,  essentially breaking up that “Superheavy” with too much wind load coming from the side,  where it is nowhere near as strong.  That is something very important to know “for sure”.  It is just like pulling too many gees that can rip the wings off an airplane!  You must know your limits!

The Flight 9 “Starship” upper stage spacecraft did not experience engine failures during the ascent burn from staging to orbital insertion,  unlike what happened on Flights 7 and 8.  It appears that they may have fixed at least a part of what was going wrong on those two flights. 

However,  there was a slow loss of propellant tank pressure,  due a leak (or leaks) somewhere.  Their attitude thrusters are cold gas thrusters powered by the propellant tank pressure.   And there must be at least some pressure to successfully ignite an engine.

Whether this loss of propellant tank pressure had anything to do with opening the payload door is unknown to me,  but not long after that door failed to open,  is when the vehicle went into an uncontrolled spin for lack of attitude thrusters.  And they called off the engine relight test because of it,  too.

Not having attitude control is why the ship broke up upon reentry over the Indian Ocean.  The heat shielding is only on the belly and around the nose,  so that if you are pointed in the wrong direction,  you are unprotected from the extreme heating of orbital reentry.  The vehicle was spinning completely out of control as it entered.

SpaceX is going to have to figure out what caused the leak and loss of tank pressure.  That won’t be easy.  But it has to be done,  and I hope they obtained the necessary data to figure out that problem,  from this test.

Getting a reentry survival is crucial toward verifying their heat shield design.  I would suggest that SpaceX add some independent attitude thrusters to these flight tests,  so that loss of tank pressure does not mean loss of attitude control.  The Draco attitude thrusters on their Dragon capsules would be a good choice,  with lots of real experience behind them.   

I do not know for sure,  but had Flight 9 been equipped with independent attitude thrusters,  that particular “Starship” might have made it back through reentry successfully.  That would have been a huge “plus” for this mission!  They will still have to find and fix the propellant tank pressure leak,  in order to make the final landing burn,  however. 

Photo courtesy UPI