North Korea Has Come to a Head

Note:  this article appeared in a slightly shorter form as a guest column on the opinion page of the Waco "Tribune-Herald",  Sunday 8-13-17.

Update 8-19-17:  I have appended some very specific recommendations for what to do about this problem at the end of this article.

The North Korea atomic weapons crisis has come to a head.  Understanding this situation is a whole lot easier than many think.  Like a boil,  it must be lanced.

They now have the 4 elements needed to present a credible nuclear missile threat to the US and many other nations.  Those are a big-enough rocket,  a nuclear warhead small enough to ride that rocket,  a guidance system to get it near its target,  and a heat shield for the warhead to survive reentry. 

The recent high-arcing rocket tests demonstrate they have made sufficient progress on all four fronts.  The trajectory shows the capability of hitting the US if aimed differently,  the intelligence communities agree they have a bomb small enough to ride that particular rocket,  and the fact that these test flights have not gone astray shows that the guidance works.  “Something” from these rockets have been tracked to impact from these tests,  which very strongly suggests that the heat shield works. 

Whether this ICBM is actually reliable is beside the point,  same as it was with ours and Russia’s in the late 1950’s.  If they launched several,  at least a few would get to the target.  Now that he has a credible weapon,  Kim Jong Un is ready to play the age-old blackmail game.  This is a pattern known across millennia of history,  but most folks would recognize the name Adolf Hitler. 

The game is played thusly:  the aggressive one makes a threat to do something “unspeakable” unless he gets what he wants.  He must be willing to risk getting slapped down for it,  but throughout history,  most of those who are willing to make the threat,  have been willing to take that risk. 

Between the World Wars,  that “unspeakable” threat was to wage war at all,  based on the horrifying experiences of World War 1.  Since World War 2,  the “unspeakable” threat has been to wage nuclear war.  Notice how lots of conventional wars have been waged since then?  Only the technology deemed “unspeakable” has changed.  The game remains the same. 

Kim Jong Un may seem crazy to us,  but he is crazy like a fox.  It is not yet clear what he wants,  but he has already made the threat to nuke Guam.  His risk bet is that we won’t actually go to war over an island far from our shores.  That is why he has not yet threatened the lower 48 states. 

But as this escalates,  Hawaii and Alaska are at risk,  because of US military assets in both places,  plus our allies in the region.  Eventually,  he would attack the lower 48 as a final act of desperation.  We’ve seen this pattern many times before.

And escalate it will!  Just like with Hitler and the Nazis in 1930’s Europe.  This scenario has played out countless times over history.  Kim Jong Un is following a long-established pattern like it was a cooking recipe.  This is perfectly predictable. 

Of course,  there is no excuse not to pursue a diplomatic solution.  Basic humanity on our part demands it.  But,  don’t hold your breath for it to work!  It didn’t work with Hitler,  or his predecessors. 

What worked was raw naked force.  The only question is how much you have to use,  and that increases as time goes by.  This is very much like a boil:  the longer you let it fester,  the more it hurts when you lance it,  and more damage there is to heal afterwards.

It is very important that we not strike the first blow,  and that would be true,  even without any pronouncements from the Chinese as to whether they get involved or stay neutral.  It is also important that we not resort to half measures,  such as only striking test sites. 

This is the main lesson of World War 2:  you go “whole hawg or none”.  If North Korea strikes Guam or anywhere else,  we take out Kim Jong Un and his entire government.  Regime change or nothing.  Period. 

It would be nice if we could kill Kim Jong Un and all his government functionaries by destroying them in their big government complex in Pyongyang,  without killing all the civilians in the surrounding city.  Then there’s no need to send one tank or one soldier across the border,  or to commit genocide by nuking the city.

The size of that complex demands that we use a deep-penetrating “bunker-buster” projectile fitted with a small nuclear warhead,  exploded deep underground,  and turning the complex into a contained rubble pile in a pit,  too radioactive to enter.   For the most part,  the city and the people survive,  only Kim Jong Un and his government die.

But I haven’t ever heard that we actually have such a weapon!  North Korea has been festering since 1953,  so it’s not like we haven’t foreseen this problem coming.  This lack for so long a time makes me think we have spent an awful lot of money on the wrong weapons,  not the ones we really needed.

Think about THAT the next time you go vote.  Which is now too late to do anything about any of this.  

Meanwhile,  sleep tight!

Update 8-19-17:  Appended Specific Recommendations:

Specific Recommendations Regarding North Korea                                          

First,  privately among ourselves,  we must agree upon three things: 

(1) We will put an end to the regime if they launch any sort of weapon at any US territory or ally,  anywhere in the world. 

(2) We will accomplish this from a distance:  no invasion,  no occupation. 

(3) We would like to do this with minimal loss of civilian life on all sides,  but accomplishing an end to that ugly regime is higher priority than saving those lives.

Second,  we tell North Korea publicly that “we will put a permanent end to their regime if they launch any weapon toward any US territory or ally,  anywhere in the world”.  This should be calm,  quiet,  succinct,  and very much to the point.  No questions,  no discussion.  No bluster.  Just that fact.

Third,  we tell China very privately that we will put an end to the North Korean regime because they did not control the rogue regime that they created.  We tell them we will not invade or occupy,  because that is not in our interests.  It was in their interests to control what they created,  but they did not do their job. 

Our action will inevitably leave a failed state on their doorstep,  something neither of us wanted.  But because of them not doing their job,  it is only fair that they clean up the failed state mess that we leave for them.  No questions,  no discussion.  Not negotiable.  Best for them and for us.

Fourth,  among ourselves,  and probably in a deeply-classified information scenario,  we must address exactly how we will utterly destroy that regime from a standoff distance,  both “right now”,  and within the next year or so.  There will be no invasion (not even temporarily),  no occupation.  It is best to do this without even sending manned aircraft. 

We do this with standoff weapons,  and preferably not ICBM’s,  which could be mistaken for an attack on China.  Tactical (not strategic) weapon trajectories are an imperative here.

The goal is to suddenly destroy the entire governmental complex in Pyongyang,  in a completely-surprise attack,  at a time we choose,  not just an immediate knee-jerk response.  The hope is to catch Kim Jong Un and his top staff there,  and kill them all in the sudden utter destruction of that complex.  If we miss him,  then we target other installations where he might be,  in a similar fashion.  We keep up the strikes until we get him,  no matter how long it takes.  Then we quit.

A tactical missile with a nuclear warhead can do that job right now,  but with enormous civilian casualties and the destruction of much of the city.  That outcome would resemble Hiroshima and Nagasaki,  so it is imperative that they strike first,  no if’s,  and’s,  or but’s about that.  Such a weapon could be launched from Japan,  South Korea,  or a ship (or submarine) at sea close by.

However,  some sort of tactical missile might possibly be fitted with a deep-penetrating “bunker-buster” nuclear warhead.  It would likely be a larger tactical missile due to the weight of the Earth penetrator and the necessary speed at impact. 

Such a strike would excavate out a cavity under the foundations of the government complex,  shatter that complex into rubble,  and contain that radioactive rubble by its collapse into the excavation pit.  There would be some surface fallout,  but not nearly as much as the usual “city-busting” scenario.  In this underground nuclear scenario,  most of Pyongyang and its civilian population would survive in good shape.  That is the preferred scenario. 

The questions we must ask ourselves in this private,  classified discussion are two-fold. 

(1) Do we possess such a weapon?  If yes,  we’re “good-to-go” immediately.

(2) If not,  how soon could we have one?  And then get on with it as a “crash program”.  Speed is crucial.

Finally,  I would add that this crisis has been long foreseen.  If we have no such suitable weapon to end it with minimal civilian casualties,  why is that?  How do we fix that management lack?

(end update 8-19-17)

Update 8-23-17:  the same nuclear bunker-buster I suggested for decapitating the North Korean regime,  would work against the underground hardened nuclear production facilities in Iran.  That need would arise if  they choose to violate the agreement and start building bombs (a real risk).  I repeat: do we have such a weapon?  If not,  why not?

Update 9-19-17:  After thinking about it for a while,  I believe the real reason Kim Jong Un wants nuclear weapons is to extort the reunification of Korea on his terms.  The threat of nuclear attack "wherever" is the threat by which to ward off the counter-invasion that topples his regime.  I still say we do this by standoff strike,  not invasion.  We leave the failed state on China's doorstep to clean up.  It's only fair,  they created this abortion.

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The Time Has Come to Deal With Iran and North Korea

Both of these rogue nations are pursuing ballistic missiles tipped with atomic weapons.  They have made enough progress that we should be seriously concerned,  especially in the case of North Korea.  Action is required now with North Korea,  and very,  very soon with Iran.

North Korean Progress

North Korea has made enough progress toward atomic weapons that they have been testing such weapons underground for several recent years.  They have been doing this for enough years to have at least begun (and possibly completed) the necessary miniaturization of the atomic weapons,  so as to fit a more ordinary-sized rocket.  It is the rocket that is still giving them problems,  so that many rocket flight tests have been made recently. 

Update 8-8-17:  today's reports indicate the miniaturization of the warhead is sufficient to fit the existing new rocket.  In turn,  the rocket appears to be flying well enough to serve.  

There are 4 things the North Koreans require,  in order to strike a mainland US city with a blast weapon:  (1) a miniaturized atomic bomb,  (2) a reliable launch rocket,  (3) a heat shield for the warhead to survive re-entry,  and (4) guidance precise enough to actually hit fairly close to the intended target (both detonation altitude and miss distance are important). 

Update 8-8-17:  the recent flights of this rocket are just what is needed to test heat shields and guidance systems.  Those also seem to be working.  It would appear that all 4 needed items are now in place for a real ICBM capability capable of hitting the continental US.  

There are only two of these needed to damage us severely with the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) of a nuclear explosion in near space.  To do that requires only the bomb and the rocket;  the precision guidance and a heat shield are unnecessary. 

If they have not successfully miniaturized their atomic bomb yet,  they will within a year or two at most.  By then,  their rocket should also be flying reliably.  That means we are credibly at risk “right now”,  and very most certainly within a year or two.   It is now past time to put an end to their efforts.

Update 8-8-17:  the way to put a stop to this threat is to start shooting down everything they launch.  I do not know if any of the anti-missile systems we have can actually do this.  They are really intended for use in the terminal target area.  But if they cannot,  then we have been paying far too much for the wrong kind of weapons.  

Iranian Progress

Iran already has the rocket “in hand”:  they have launched satellites into orbit.  Our own history shows that any satellite launcher can fly sub-orbitally with a larger payload.  That payload can easily be a miniaturized atomic weapon. 

That is why Iran’s main effort in recent years was toward those atomic weapons.  Like North Korea,  they could do us great damage with only the rocket and bomb as an EMP attack.  With a heat shield and precision guidance,  they could also do a blast weapon attack.  Those last two components are easier to do,  than the miniaturized bomb and the rocket,  and easier to conceal. 

The nuclear “deal” with Iran has temporarily slowed (perhaps even halted,  but I really doubt that) Iran’s uranium fuel program.  We have already seen them highly-enrich uranium,  something unnecessary to run a power reactor.  Highly-enriched uranium is only bomb material,  simple as that. 

However,  not often considered in the news reports is the fact that even low-enriched uranium can be used in a modified reactor design that breeds plutonium from the non-fissionable leftovers from the uranium enrichment process.  Plutonium makes even better bomb material,  although how you set it off is different from highly-enriched uranium.  But,  how you set off either is publicly-available knowledge! 

The upshot of that is that any country who can build reactors that use low-enriched uranium,  can also breed plutonium and make plutonium-based atomic bombs!  The Iran nuclear deal does NOT prevent that from happening!  From that point,  all that is required is miniaturization of the atomic bomb to fit the rocket.  And Iran already has the rocket!

It might take Iran a single-handful of years to build plutonium bombs and get them miniaturized successfully.  At that point,  they can successfully strike us with atomic bombs.  It is therefore pretty-much time to put an end to their efforts,  too. 

Update 8-8-17:  no change to that assessment.  

What Could We Do About North Korea?

North Korea has a weakness we can exploit as a unilateral action:  their rocket is still unready to fly their atomic bombs.   Stop the rocket tests,  and you can still stop their capability to hurt us,  at least for a while.  Longer-term,  there must be regime change in North Korea,  or else this threat will never go away.   

We have various battlefield and longer-range anti-missile and anti-satellite weapons.  Some of these seem to work,  at least under restricted circumstances.  With all of them,  there is still credible doubt about their efficacy during general warfare.   But what we need here is only efficacy in a restricted circumstance:  shooting down every test rocket launch conducted by North Korea,  for the forseeable future. 

That is exactly what I propose as the initial step against North Korea:  shoot down every single test missile they launch.  This has two effects:  (1) North Korea cannot verify their rocket to be reliable,  at least for the short term,  and (2) it shows China we are very,  very serious about taking unilateral action if they do not rein in their protégé state. 

Update 8-8-17:  now only one thing can be accomplished - to show China we are very serious.  North Korea has completed most of the minimal test and development work to have an ICBM that can hit the US.  Reports do indicate China is going along with sanctions.  It is past time to discuss regime change in North Korea with China.  Whom would they prefer?  

In the longer term,  we will need the help of China to resolve this situation.  They are the source of imports and support that actually keeps the rogue state of North Korea alive and functional.  It is in China’s interest as well as ours that there not be a failed state in North Korea.  Further,  there is some reason to believe that the Kim dynasty in North Korea has limited days left.  When it ends,  chaos is the most likely result,  unless a major power steps in. 

But,  I rather doubt that China might support reunification of the Koreas under the government of South Korea,  even though that would be a favorable outcome for them and for us.   So,  the realistic prospect is that there will still be two Koreas indefinitely into the future.  The “trick” is getting China itself to replace the paranoid Kim dynasty with something more sane and more tolerable,  to us and to them.   

What Could We Do About Iran?

This is by far the tougher problem to solve. 

Iran has the rocket,  but they do not yet have the bomb to ride that rocket.  It is only a matter of a very few years before they do have the miniaturized bomb,  despite the nuclear deal.   Whether they cheat on the deal,  or not,  makes no real difference. 

The exact locations of all their nuclear facilities are too uncertain for us to strike,  and those we do know precisely,  are buried deep underground.  Conventional weapons simply cannot take them out;  only a ground-penetrating nuclear strike could do this job.  The world will not condone that. 

Like North Korea,  Iran is ruled by extremists who policy objectives are demonstrably insane by any standards that we in the west understand.  In that respect,  they differ in no practical way from ISIS,  Al Qaeda,  or the Taliban. 

Unlike North Korea,  Iran has no major power as a “sponsor” to keep them functional.  In point of fact,  Iran is a major regional power all on its own,  complete with proxy armies (Hezbollah,  Hamas,  and some others) to do its bidding to spread chaos everywhere. 

Diplomacy (the nuclear deal) has slowed the problem only a little,  but definitely has not stopped it.  Short of nuclear genocide,  there is little we the US can unilaterally do,  or even do with multiple allies.  Yet something must be done,  and all the Iranians’ neighbors agree.  The people of Iran are actually good and decent folk;  they do not deserve nuclear extinction.  But their government certainly does!

This one is a real “rock-and-a-hard-place” problem.  About the only hope I can offer is that diplomacy with Iran might be more effective,  if we have already made an example of North Korea.  And also perhaps of their co-supported (with Russia) puppet:  Assad in Syria. 

To that end:  put an end to Kim Jong Un in North Korea,  then make sure Bashar Assad in Syria dies for conducting chemical warfare attacks.  Target him (instead of airfields) with cruise missiles.  Let the Russians install whomever they want in Syria to replace him,  but we must be sure Assad dies.  Period. 

Update 8-8-17:  no change to this assessment.  

That is a very difficult prescription indeed,  but it must be done!  After it is done,  both us and the Russians may actually benefit.  And those extremists ruling Iran may be more tractable. 

Maybe.  Maybe not.  No guarantees. 

GW

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Update 4-9-17:

The conclusions of this article are now obsolete.  It has been superseded by “The Time Has Come to Deal With Iran and North Korea”,  dated 4-8-17,  with search keywords “current events”,  “Mideast threats”,  “North Korean rocket test”.  

Update 9-9-16:

The recent underground test of a "larger" North Korean atomic bomb is listed variously as about 80% the yield of our first-generation bomb dropped on Hiroshima.  That would be close to 10-12 kiloton (KT).  It is completely unclear as to whether this is an enriched-uranium bomb,  or a bred-plutonium bomb.  It did create a Richter-magnitude 5 quake when they set it off.

As we built it back in 1945,  that Hiroshima bomb was a first-generation enriched-uranium critical-mass weapon weighing pretty close to 5 tons as made,  and close to 5 ft diameter.  The Nagasaki weapon was about the same size and weight,  although shorter and fatter at 10 ft diameter,  but had a larger yield at 20-25 KT.  It was a plutonium "implosion" weapon.

Bombs of these early types are far too heavy (and far too big) for any of the rockets North Korea has actually launched.  This is the very first time North Korea has exploded anything approaching a first-generation weapon yield.  I think they might have have finally duplicated first-generation warhead technology.  I just don't know which one:  enriched uranium or plutonium.

I conclude from this that North Korea is exaggerating what it can do,  in claiming that it can strike the US with atomic weapons.  That is in accord with its routine extreme exaggerations that are a matter of history from 1953 to the present.

Their current rocket might hit the Pacific coast with a 0.1 to 0.2 ton weapon,  if its reliability problems can be solved.  That's a third or fourth generation weapon.  They simply are "not there" yet.

There is one other issue to consider,  which is the intended damage mode.  For a blast/fire weapon (like our bombs on Japan),  these warheads have to survive atmospheric entry,  and they must arrive with considerable geographic precision (well under half a mile).  That means that precision guidance and a heat shield are required for missile delivery.  Period.

On the other hand,  if you intend to do only electromagnetic pulse (EMP) damage,  neither of these two enabling technologies is required.  That is because you are detonating over 50 miles up,  and range precision is immaterial,  since the effects are manifested over ranges exceeding 100 miles.  All you need is a simple rocket capable of carrying the bomb that you can build.

Such an attack destroys all solid-state electronics of any scale directly underneath,  and can crash the electrical grid directly underneath.  We have known this since the "Starfish Prime" shot over Johnston Island in the Pacific in 1962.  That was 2-4 megatons at 200 miles about 900 miles away.

If I were North Korea (or Iran),  this EMP damage is the capability I would be going for.  It offers more damage potential than the direct blast and fire damage we achieved in Japan in 1945.

North Korea isn't quite there yet,  neither is Iran.  But they soon will be.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update ca. 2013:

However,  further nuclear weapons work will result in a 15-25 KT weapon of about 0.5 to 1 ton weight,  that might actually fit atop their long-range rocket,  albeit at reduced range.  What is required to strike the US mainland from North Korea is a better rocket and a lighter warhead.

I have seen recent news reports precipitated by an English-language posting from a story that ran in the North Korean state-run newspaper recently.  Judge for yourself what is propaganda.  Here are some excerpts from one of the response stories circulated over here:

Excerpt:

Officials To Take ‘Whatever Precautions’ Needed After North Korea Threat

April 3, 2013 1:28 PM

AUSTIN, Texas (CBS Houston) – In response to perceived threats against the city from the North Korean government, officials in Austin have said they are willing to do whatever federal officials feel may be necessary to protect civilians.

Several images recently appeared in the Rodong Sinmun, the North Korean newspaper run by the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea and the most read paper in the nation, under the headline, “Kim Jong Un Convenes Operation Meeting, Finally Examines and Ratifies Plan for Firepower Strike.”

Excerpt:

Essentially quoting Kim Jong Un himself in the story:   “He said he has judged the time has come to settle accounts with the U.S. imperialists in view of the prevailing situation.”

The report added, “If they make a reckless provocation with huge strategic forces, the KPA should mercilessly strike the U.S. mainland, their stronghold, their military bases in the operational theaters in the Pacific, including Hawaii and Guam, and those in south Korea, he said.”

Excerpt:

According to NK News, some text written on a map in the background of one image reads “U.S. Mainland Strike Plan,” and their digitally enhanced version of the image show missile strikes planned for areas surrounding Austin, as well as Washington D.C. and San Diego.

My Take On It:

I wonder why anyone believes a launcher with a 200 kilogram capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) could carry a 2-to-5 ton first- or second-generation nuclear warhead to the US,  especially without a stable-flying reentry vehicle,  or a proper heat shield? 

For real data and analysis,  see the posting dated 2-15-13 and titled “Third North Korean Nuclear Test”,  the posting dated 12-13-13 titled “On the 12-12-12 North Korean Satellite Launch”,  and the posting dated 4-6-09 titled “Thoughts on the North Korean Rocket Test And Beyond”.  These are located right here on "exrocketman".

Now,  it is true,  the North Koreans might have bought some black-market modern warheads (which would be complete as reentry vehicles with heat shields),  but they still don't have the guidance with their rocket to hit anything accurately enough,  even for a nuke. 

The only viable means that they currently have to inflict maximum damage upon us,  would be a high-altitude burst outside the atmosphere,  and let the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) wave "kill" all the electronics,  over many thousands of square miles below.  This would have to be done with a modern black-market warhead,  theirs are still too heavy for the rocket they currently have.

That'll change in 5-7 years,  by the way.  That’s about what it took for us to shrink our nukes,  some 60 years ago.  Accuracy is not an issue with an EMP attack.

Right now,  this "nuke-the-US" stuff is a propaganda scare tactic to divert attention from the brush-fire regional war they are quite evidently willing to risk,  one in which a truck or boat-mounted 2-to-5 ton nuke is actually a credible sneak weapon.  Maybe one even dropped from a big airplane,  if they have any,  although I'm not at all sure they do.

But,  as I just said,  that entire picture will have changed in 5-7 years.

The excessive bravado they now exhibit,  combined with external enemies (us and our allies) to point at,  actually indicates how near to collapse that North Korean regime is.  Their people are starving in the cold and the dark (you can see it for yourself in satellite images taken at night). 

The army gets fed by the dictator in order to prop up that dictator (currently Kim Jong Un).  I've heard unconfirmed rumors of rural cannibalism over there already.  If food runs any shorter,  that house of cards collapses into chaos. 

The North Korean leadership knows very well that regime collapse is close.  That is why they are willing to risk a war they know they would lose,  just to stave off being eaten by their own people (which would be an appropriate form of justice,  don't you think?). 

They very likely haven't got 5-7 years left before the collapse happens,  unless someone relents and ships them aid again.  And THAT is what this is all about:  extorting some aid.  Just like all the previous similar incidents. 

Actually,  a short war right now (that puts an end to that regime) would be the least destructive outcome in the long run.  The same could have been said for Syria last year,  but that’s a different topic.

As long as the US and South Korea or Japan don't start that war,  I believe China would not aid the North Koreans this time (the way they did in 1950),  being quite tired of all the disruptive horseshit the North Koreans cause,  and also being quite tired of supporting them economically. 

Hell,  the Chinese might even help us end it.  They have gotten very disillusioned with North Korea in recent years. 

A reunified Korea is still a buffer state for China,  no matter who runs it.  And the South still has much to teach China about free-market economies in Asia and the world.  The Chinese know that.  Enlightened self-interest could well break their historic ties with North Korea. 

Unfortunately,  we here in the US lack the weapons we need to end this quickly,  without committing many boots-on-the-ground.  And we all know how that went in the middle east. 

We are just about out of Tomahawk cruise missiles,  and we never replaced them,  nor did we build the supersonic ASALM cruise missile that would have done the same job,  except that any defense against it would have been impossible due to its speed and altitude.  (But the Russians did!) 

If we could get hold of some surface-to-surface versions of the very-supersonic Russian-made "Sunburn" or "Yakhonts" cruise missiles,  we could decapitate the North Korean regime pretty easily with them,  by simply pulverizing the Pyongyang palace and associated government buildings in a sudden mass attack.  No need to blow up the whole city. 

I think the Indians are building a version of "Yakhonts" under license from the Russians.  Maybe we could buy some from them.  Unfortunately,  it seems we’re not on such good terms with the Russians right now,  not enough to buy weapons. 

Geopolitics is a bitch,  ain’t it?

GW

UPDATE 4-12-13:  

I have not seen anything that would change any of my original conclusions,  including the supposedly-unclassified excerpts of that rather dubious DIA report,  claiming they could hit the US with a miniaturized nuclear warhead. (DIA are same folks who claimed Iraq had nuclear weapons in 2003 - not a very good track record).  

If the North Koreans actually have bought some black-market modern warheads,  their Unha-3 rocket could indeed send one of those warheads to (at least the western portion of) the continental US.  If they have any such warheads at all,  I really doubt they have more than a very small handful.

This sort of thing is "feasible" right now for North Korea with horrible accuracy and horrible reliability.  I would remind you that the third stage of Unha-3 is reputed to be a solid propellant rocket,  which means it has anything but a precision velocity control over its trajectory insertion.  

Now,  accuracy is not a requirement for an EMP attack,  but reliability is.  I see nothing anywhere indicating reliability for any of North Korea's rockets.  Further,  no other rocket they have besides Unha-3 is capable of hitting the continental US,  even with a modern miniaturized warhead.  

So,  my previous conclusion remains unchanged:  all this war scare stuff is a foreign aid extortion attempt.  It is aimed mainly at China,  but as China "sours" on them,  they want to extort increasing aid (and other concessions) out of South Korea,  Japan,  and the US.  It is either threaten war and get the foreign aid,  or fail to get the foreign aid,  and be eaten.  Just as I said previously. 

So,  "Don't give in." 

Our best response is to ignore them,  unless they actually do attack somewhere.  That applies to us,  South Korea,  Japan,  and even China. 

If the North Koreans do attack,  then we (all of the above) should utterly decapitate that regime together,  something that can actually be done without killing the entire North Korean population,  most of which actually resides in Pyongyang.  

Simple.  Maybe not so very easy,  but simple. 

The hardest part will be figuring out who pays for bringing the North Korean people into a modern economy that can support them without foreign aid.  That's hard.  

GW


 

Third North Korean Nuclear Test

Update 4-9-17:

The conclusions of this article are now obsolete.  It has been superseded by “The Time Has Come to Deal With Iran and North Korea”,  dated 4-8-17,  with search keywords “current events”,  “Mideast threats”,  “North Korean rocket test”.  

original article:

Recent news reports of a third underground nuclear test in North Korea have quickly faded from the news.  Digging behind the scenes,  I see some indications our intelligence community is trying to find out whether it was a plutonium or uranium bomb. 

Last December,  the North Koreans launched a satellite into orbit more-or-less successfully (see the earlier article dated 12-13-12 and titled “On the 12-12-12 North Korean Satellite Launch”,  and also the article dated 4-6-09 and titled “Thoughts on the North Korean Rocket Test and Beyond”).  While the satellite itself was apparently dead-on-arrival,  the rocket worked just fine,  for the first time. 

In principle,  any satellite launcher is also an intercontinental ballistic missile,  the only difference being the details of the flight path one commands.  The range as a missile just gets shorter as the payload gets heavier. 

That satellite (around 220 pounds) was far smaller than a first generation (crude) nuclear weapon (around 9-10,000 pounds).  A second or third generation weapon would be far smaller,  and would fit that rocket much better.  See also the article dated 3-10-12 and titled “On Iran and the Bomb”. 

A while back,  I ran some crude calculations with the scarce and contradictory information available about their rocket,  the Unha-3 (that’s the 12-13-12 article).  These numbers indicated that their rocket might reach the continental US,  if they can get their bomb down to around 2000 pounds or less. 

That would still be a fairly low-yield weapon:  several tens of kilotons,  perhaps.  It will take them only a few years of bomb test work to do that,  same as it took for us long ago.  You can bet that they have very bright people working on it.

There’s more to a real ballistic missile system than just the rocket and a bomb that fits it.  Hitting cities requires very precision guidance (that the “any orbit will do”-satellite doesn’t really need).  The bomb must survive hypersonic atmospheric reentry ,  which means it has to fly stably at such speeds,  and it must have a heat shield. 

There’s no evidence that they have any of these other things yet,  so the smaller,  lighter bomb may not be the pacing item for a North Korean “city-busting” capability against the US.   But,  is that the only mission they might want to do?

Consider a different way of damaging the US (or anybody else),  not by the blast and fire,  but by the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) of a very high-altitude detonation.  Even with a small bomb,  this is known to destroy electronics,  and damage the electricity grid,  over a very wide area,  far larger than any city. 

We first seriously encountered this effect from the July 1962 “Starfish Prime” test above Johnston Island in the Pacific.  That warhead was about 1.4 megatons,  detonated about 250 miles up.  Quoting from the 2-14-13 version of the Wikipedia article on this test:

Starfish Prime caused an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) which was far larger than expected, so much larger that it drove much of the instrumentation off scale, causing great difficulty in getting accurate measurements. The Starfish Prime electromagnetic pulse also made those effects known to the public by causing electrical damage in Hawaii, about 1,445 kilometres (898 mi) away from the detonation point, knocking out about 300 streetlights, setting off numerous burglar alarms and damaging a telephone company microwave link. The EMP damage to the microwave link shut down telephone calls from Kauai to the other Hawaiian islands.

For an EMP mission,  there is no need for a stable reentry vehicle with heat shield,  or precision guidance.  The blast point is at,  or above,  the very edge of the atmosphere.  All they need is the rocket,  and the smaller bomb to fit it,  and the effect is so widespread no precision guidance is needed. 

A rocket and a bomb to fit it are exactly what the North Koreans have been working on! 

The same is true of Iran!  They have not yet tested a bomb,  but they have launched two satellites,  and they are known to be enriching uranium with centrifuges. 

Does plutonium versus uranium make a difference?  Maybe.

It is easier to build lighter and more compact weapons with plutonium,  once you have mastered the difficult triggering technique.  The plutonium is bred from natural uranium in a nuclear reactor,  so you need some of those in operation,  and they are easy to spot.  

The trigger technique is much easier for the slightly larger and heavier uranium bomb.  For enriched uranium,  you do not need a reactor.  The key to that process is the gas centrifuges,  which are easy to hide.   That,  too,  is what Iran is doing,  and if the North Koreans are also doing it,  we have not spotted it. 

If I had to guess,  I’d say the Iranians are headed for a uranium EMP weapon to ride their rocket,  which they intend to reach Europe,  as well as Israel and their other neighbors.  They just haven’t reached the warhead test stage yet,  nor have they begun figuring out how to make it lighter to fit their rocket.   With the somewhat shorter range requirement as compared to North Korea,  their bomb need not be quite as light,  anyway. 

Also my guess:  the North Koreans are headed for a plutonium EMP weapon to ride their rocket that must cross the Pacific.  They’ve begun warhead testing already,  and will soon figure out how to make the lighter version to fit their rocket:  which just successfully flew for the first time last December.

For both North Korea and Iran,  their nuclear weapons will be able to do more damage as EMP weapons than as direct blast and fire weapons.  That choice eliminates the need for stable entry vehicles and heat shield designs,  and the precision guidance.  

Just shrink the bombs,  and they are ready to hurt other folks very badly. 

And it’s only a small handful of years off ……

“Sweet Dreams”