Wednesday 6-29 (day 16 since surgery on Monday 6-13): I successfully drove son’s Ford Focus across the yard to the shop. I also successfully climbed into my F-150 and manipulated the pedals forcefully enough to drive safely. I cannot do this activity for very long, perhaps for a 5 mile trip at the most. But, it is very satisfying that I now have such a capability if there is an emergency. With the other knee, I did not reach this capability until day 29.
I have been walking without a walker on smooth paved surfaces in daylight since about day 11. My gait is hobbled because the knee joint motion is still limited to about 5-75 degrees (0 is full extension, 90 is flexed to a right angle, and the hardware limits are 0-140). We’re working that issue much harder now in therapy, since I got the staples out on Monday (day 14).
I still have to use pain medications to sleep at night, and even so, it is a hard thing to do. I wake up a lot during the night. But, I haven’t used the pain medications at all during the days, since day 11. This recovery is definitely proceeding faster than the other one 2.5 years ago.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
In Recovery
The knee replacement surgery was very successful. I am home and undergoing outpatient therapy. I seem to be about a week ahead of the recovery timeline experienced with the first knee, 2.5 years ago. This is based on some diary-like notes I made back then.
The photo is me scurrying around the house on the walker. I probably won’t need the walker much longer. As of this writing, the knee is stable enough to bear full weight walking, for a majority of the time. 3 days ago, that was entirely not true. Status changes very quickly.
Photo 006-2
There’s a lot of reading and paperwork to catch up, plus getting my paper ready for the Mars Society convention in Dallas August 4-7. Until recently, I didn’t feel much like doing any of this. I still need a good long nap after therapy sessions. But, things are good enough now to start taking on those chores.
The photo is me scurrying around the house on the walker. I probably won’t need the walker much longer. As of this writing, the knee is stable enough to bear full weight walking, for a majority of the time. 3 days ago, that was entirely not true. Status changes very quickly.
Photo 006-2
There’s a lot of reading and paperwork to catch up, plus getting my paper ready for the Mars Society convention in Dallas August 4-7. Until recently, I didn’t feel much like doing any of this. I still need a good long nap after therapy sessions. But, things are good enough now to start taking on those chores.
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Another Red-Letter Event
My wife Ellen was an adoptee. Her parents made no secret of her Japanese birth mother’s identity (Toshie Uchida), and did encourage Ellen to find her. They did not know where she was, though. After both of Ellen’s parents passed on, Ellen felt like an only child, and determined to find Toshie, or at least find out what happened to her.
But, with the help of dear friends in Japan, and a private investigator in Chicago, Ellen did finally locate her near Peoria, Illinois. Ellen made contact, and found out she has a half-sister and a nephew that we never knew about. Emails and phone calls led to a trip to Peoria June 4 through 6. All three of us went. This turned out quite well, as you can tell by the looks on everyone’s faces. Here are four photos from the trip.
The first shows Ellen, her sister Joyce, and her mom. We all marveled at them gabbing away, while around that table, and others. It was clear they were related.
948
The second is of most of the men associated with these three. Left to right are me, Ted Meyer (Toshie’s husband for many years), our son James, and Joyce’s husband Tim Ricci. Ted was Navy and Marine, then a railroad hand for decades, now retired. Tim is a policeman.
936
The third shows my son James and his cousin David (Joyce and Tim’s son). Both of these two are into computers and gaming.
939
The last is a close-up of the two sisters, Joyce and Ellen. The picture says it all. As it turns out, both are involved with correctional work professionally. Amazing.
951
This trip was a wonderful visit. I think there will be many more.
But, with the help of dear friends in Japan, and a private investigator in Chicago, Ellen did finally locate her near Peoria, Illinois. Ellen made contact, and found out she has a half-sister and a nephew that we never knew about. Emails and phone calls led to a trip to Peoria June 4 through 6. All three of us went. This turned out quite well, as you can tell by the looks on everyone’s faces. Here are four photos from the trip.
The first shows Ellen, her sister Joyce, and her mom. We all marveled at them gabbing away, while around that table, and others. It was clear they were related.
948
The second is of most of the men associated with these three. Left to right are me, Ted Meyer (Toshie’s husband for many years), our son James, and Joyce’s husband Tim Ricci. Ted was Navy and Marine, then a railroad hand for decades, now retired. Tim is a policeman.
936
The third shows my son James and his cousin David (Joyce and Tim’s son). Both of these two are into computers and gaming.
939
The last is a close-up of the two sisters, Joyce and Ellen. The picture says it all. As it turns out, both are involved with correctional work professionally. Amazing.
951
This trip was a wonderful visit. I think there will be many more.
Another Red-Letter Day
The two VW beetles have served their purposes for me, and are going back into mothballs. I have completed the preservation activities for both engines and both fuel systems. There really is nothing to preserve about the brakes: both have seen recent service, and both are already DOT-5 silicone converted systems.
The blue 1973 “ethanol VW” served very well for 5 years as an E-85-only demonstrator, and last year in flex-fuel configuration for experimental confirmation of my earlier conclusions from the F-150 about the limits of “stiff” gasohol blends in unmodified vehicles. It is still working quite well, but has a very “high-time” engine and a very “high-time” transmission. It is time to put it back to rest, before I break something. I remain convinced that the ethanol extended its useful life considerably: it should have burned a valve or lost compression entirely, long before now. It has a little over 250,000 original miles on chassis and transmission, and well over 100,000 miles on the last engine rebuild.
The old white 1960 “gasohol VW” had been de-mothballed to replace the blue VW in ethanol experimentation as a daily driver. Turns out I didn’t need it after all, my wife’s old Nissan Sentra is currently filling that role. As for the VW, I “woke it up” completely unmodified on E-33 gasohol blend, and it has performed excellently on that fuel. This vehicle is so old as to have plain carbon steel valves and seats, so it requires a lead substitute with today’s unleaded fuels. I have successfully used 9 cc per gallon Marvel Mystery Lube in that role since the mid 1970’s. The car has a little over 227,000 original miles on it, but the engine and transmission are both “low-time”.
Ethanol fuel research continues with the Nissan, my F-150, my Farmall tractor, and all my lawn and garden equipment. All are completely-unmodified equipment running on “stiff” gasohol blends (E-25 to E-35) except the Farmall, which is a straight E-85 machine. I still maintain that blends up to E-35 are fine as "drop-in" fuels for every car in the fleet. The vehicle will get the same mileage it got on gasoline, it will run cleaner inside the engine and exhaust, and I am convinced it will last longer precisely because of reduced flame sooting.
If you want a good summary of how I converted the blue 1973 "ethanol VW", or how I routinely make my own gasohol blends at the pump, or what I know about ethanol fuel compatibility in engines and fuel systems, then look below for two articles posted on this site. Together, they make a pretty good “handbook” for you. See “How-To” For Ethanol and Blend Vehicles, dated 2-12-11, and see Ethanol Does Not Hurt Engines, dated 5-5-11. The keywords for both are “fun stuff, old cars”.
The blue 1973 “ethanol VW” served very well for 5 years as an E-85-only demonstrator, and last year in flex-fuel configuration for experimental confirmation of my earlier conclusions from the F-150 about the limits of “stiff” gasohol blends in unmodified vehicles. It is still working quite well, but has a very “high-time” engine and a very “high-time” transmission. It is time to put it back to rest, before I break something. I remain convinced that the ethanol extended its useful life considerably: it should have burned a valve or lost compression entirely, long before now. It has a little over 250,000 original miles on chassis and transmission, and well over 100,000 miles on the last engine rebuild.
The old white 1960 “gasohol VW” had been de-mothballed to replace the blue VW in ethanol experimentation as a daily driver. Turns out I didn’t need it after all, my wife’s old Nissan Sentra is currently filling that role. As for the VW, I “woke it up” completely unmodified on E-33 gasohol blend, and it has performed excellently on that fuel. This vehicle is so old as to have plain carbon steel valves and seats, so it requires a lead substitute with today’s unleaded fuels. I have successfully used 9 cc per gallon Marvel Mystery Lube in that role since the mid 1970’s. The car has a little over 227,000 original miles on it, but the engine and transmission are both “low-time”.
Ethanol fuel research continues with the Nissan, my F-150, my Farmall tractor, and all my lawn and garden equipment. All are completely-unmodified equipment running on “stiff” gasohol blends (E-25 to E-35) except the Farmall, which is a straight E-85 machine. I still maintain that blends up to E-35 are fine as "drop-in" fuels for every car in the fleet. The vehicle will get the same mileage it got on gasoline, it will run cleaner inside the engine and exhaust, and I am convinced it will last longer precisely because of reduced flame sooting.
If you want a good summary of how I converted the blue 1973 "ethanol VW", or how I routinely make my own gasohol blends at the pump, or what I know about ethanol fuel compatibility in engines and fuel systems, then look below for two articles posted on this site. Together, they make a pretty good “handbook” for you. See “How-To” For Ethanol and Blend Vehicles, dated 2-12-11, and see Ethanol Does Not Hurt Engines, dated 5-5-11. The keywords for both are “fun stuff, old cars”.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
End of May Update
My Mars mission study has been accepted for presentation at the Mars Society convention in Grapevine, Texas, August 4-7 this year. I will barely be back on my feet after knee surgery at that time, but I wouldn’t miss this meeting on a bet. The basic study was posted here 12-20-10, with an update posted 1-8-11, correcting an error I made in a Falcon-9 payload number.
All of the launcher and capsule data I used were obtained from the Spacex website for 2010. Sometime after January 2011, Spacex updated these data, showing a significant increase in payload capacity estimated for the Falcon-9-heavy, which is now supposed to fly for the first time out of Vandenburg late this year. That change just makes my design even more cost-effective, but I am not going to change my presentation because of it.
I did a little nontraditional thinking, dominated by crew safety, and came up with a tremendous science return for a lot less investment than anyone will likely believe. This is way more than “flag-and-footprints”. You never know what you can do until the blinders come off. It is going to be a lot of fun.
Latest news releases in AAAS’s peer-reviewed “Science” journal confirm everything I posted here about the nuclear plant disaster in Fukushima, Japan. You have to go inside the reactor building ruins before you find radiation too dangerous for adult humans, and then it’s just barely enough to cause prompt radiation sickness. The whole argument over risk to the Japanese public seems to center on the putative risks of very low-level exposures. With no evidence to support or deny a very slight risk of slightly-above-background-level exposures, it seems rather silly to worry much about it.
Now that the Mars mission study is done, and I will be off for a while with the knee, I can return to the question of ramjet-assisted launch. I’m pretty sure that horizontal takeoff with a two-stage vehicle is feasible with simple parallel-burn rocket and ramjet in a winged first stage. I’m pretty sure the staging velocity can be pushed to right at Mach 6 with a simple subsonic-combustion hydrocarbon-fueled ramjet. The upper stage rocket can be either winged or plain gravity-turn ballistic, as desired. To hit Mach 6 staging, a spike inlet will be required, which pushes practical takeover velocities to around Mach 1.5. Parallel-burn can be used right at staging to achieve path angle. I think the staging altitude is probably closer to 60,000 feet than 80,000 or 100,000 feet altitudes. That study needs a rerun with a resized engine and revised staging altitude. The earlier versions were posted here last year.
I don’t know yet whether ramjet assist is beneficial for a vertical-launch gravity-turn staged vehicle. But, if it is, it will be leaving the sensible, usable atmosphere closer to Mach 2 or 3 speeds than Mach 6. That’s a lower-speed ramjet design, most likely a simple normal-shock (pitot) inlet and a simple convergent-only nozzle. Takeover will likely be at slightly-subsonic to merely-transonic speeds. I have most of the guts of a sizing and performance code programmed, but it still does not quite work right in performance mode. Maybe I’ll have a chance to work on that while recuperating. Properly sized with an appropriate integral booster rocket, this kind of ramjet would be a strap-on staged off substantially earlier than the typical first stage burnout, in a two-stage vehicle. But it just might help.
Watch this space for future postings.
All of the launcher and capsule data I used were obtained from the Spacex website for 2010. Sometime after January 2011, Spacex updated these data, showing a significant increase in payload capacity estimated for the Falcon-9-heavy, which is now supposed to fly for the first time out of Vandenburg late this year. That change just makes my design even more cost-effective, but I am not going to change my presentation because of it.
I did a little nontraditional thinking, dominated by crew safety, and came up with a tremendous science return for a lot less investment than anyone will likely believe. This is way more than “flag-and-footprints”. You never know what you can do until the blinders come off. It is going to be a lot of fun.
Latest news releases in AAAS’s peer-reviewed “Science” journal confirm everything I posted here about the nuclear plant disaster in Fukushima, Japan. You have to go inside the reactor building ruins before you find radiation too dangerous for adult humans, and then it’s just barely enough to cause prompt radiation sickness. The whole argument over risk to the Japanese public seems to center on the putative risks of very low-level exposures. With no evidence to support or deny a very slight risk of slightly-above-background-level exposures, it seems rather silly to worry much about it.
Now that the Mars mission study is done, and I will be off for a while with the knee, I can return to the question of ramjet-assisted launch. I’m pretty sure that horizontal takeoff with a two-stage vehicle is feasible with simple parallel-burn rocket and ramjet in a winged first stage. I’m pretty sure the staging velocity can be pushed to right at Mach 6 with a simple subsonic-combustion hydrocarbon-fueled ramjet. The upper stage rocket can be either winged or plain gravity-turn ballistic, as desired. To hit Mach 6 staging, a spike inlet will be required, which pushes practical takeover velocities to around Mach 1.5. Parallel-burn can be used right at staging to achieve path angle. I think the staging altitude is probably closer to 60,000 feet than 80,000 or 100,000 feet altitudes. That study needs a rerun with a resized engine and revised staging altitude. The earlier versions were posted here last year.
I don’t know yet whether ramjet assist is beneficial for a vertical-launch gravity-turn staged vehicle. But, if it is, it will be leaving the sensible, usable atmosphere closer to Mach 2 or 3 speeds than Mach 6. That’s a lower-speed ramjet design, most likely a simple normal-shock (pitot) inlet and a simple convergent-only nozzle. Takeover will likely be at slightly-subsonic to merely-transonic speeds. I have most of the guts of a sizing and performance code programmed, but it still does not quite work right in performance mode. Maybe I’ll have a chance to work on that while recuperating. Properly sized with an appropriate integral booster rocket, this kind of ramjet would be a strap-on staged off substantially earlier than the typical first stage burnout, in a two-stage vehicle. But it just might help.
Watch this space for future postings.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Presentations Available for Lunch and Dinner Groups (v.8) GWJ 5-7-11
This is what I have available as of the current date. I would be happy to present any of these to any interested group. Just contact me.
Name: Ethanol Experiments (set 12 – final, 1-24-11) (15 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: After characterization on gasoline during 2005, an old VW beetle was converted in October 2006, at no cost, to use E-85 ethanol fuel, and later tested as a “flex-fuel” on blends from E-15 to E-57 in 2010. An old farm tractor was also converted to E-85 with flex fuel potential. In 2007, tests began on blends from E-15 to E-45 in an unmodified pickup truck. Not long after, multiple pieces of unmodified 4-stroke lawn and garden equipment were operated routinely on E-22, then E-34 blends. In 2010, an unmodified 1998 Nissan Sentra was operated routinely on blends from E-20 to E-35, and once accidentally near E-50. Technical data of a very favorable nature were obtained on the truck and the VW. How-to information for do-it-yourself blend operations with unmodified vehicles is also included.
Name: Fuel Savings Advice (12 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: This short presentation offers both technical truth and practical advice for anyone interested in saving fuel, independent of any switch to alternative fuels. The big items are matching vehicle to mission, and carpooling if possible. A smaller item is a national speed limit, but, surprisingly, 65 mph will do as much good as 55 mph. This is because of the tradeoff between road load reductions and efficiency losses as speeds decrease, an effect not considered when the old 55 mph limit was imposed in 1974.
Name: “One Book” Presentation (18 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: This was prepared as a part of the Waco ‘One Book” project, spring 2009, related to the Homer Hickam book “Rocket Boys”. The presentation was to explain how and why I became interested in engineering, and what I did during my career, which included rocket and missile work. Many old aircraft, rocket, and other technical-item photographs were found and included, some quite rare. These were things that were simply “part of my life”, starting in the 50’s.
Name: Asteroid Results from Spain (26 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: I presented a poster paper at the 1st IAA international conference on planetary defense, held April 27-30, 2009, in Granada, Spain. This conference dealt with detection of, and mitigation of, asteroids and comets that may impact the earth. Detection efforts are in progress, but incomplete, largely for lack of funding. Concepts for mitigation schemes were discussed, but with as-yet little real development work, again largely due to lack of funding. Civil defense coordination and warning mechanisms for this international problem do not yet exist. Not discussed at the meeting: propulsion to support such schemes does not yet exist, although I identified some promising ideas abandoned long ago. Some slides of pictures taken while touring Granada are included at the end.
Name: Global Warming (vers.B 14 slides, obs. Vers.A 13 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: The earth’s climate is warming, as evidenced by polar sea ice thinning and glacier retreat on land. Icecaps on land could melt, causing massive sea level rise. Rainfall patterns (and agriculturally-fertile zones) could shift. Independent of “fault”, the options are to act, or not to act, in two areas. These are attempted mitigation, and coping with massive change. Concepts for mitigation are currently under public discussion and debate, but concepts for coping are not. The decision to act, or not, should be made on facts and logic, not politics and belief-preferences. Some experimental facts are given, and some recommendations made.
Name: Peak Oil and Coal (15 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: The empirical “Hubbert curve” model for resource depletion is presented and explained. This includes its proper application and its limitations. Hubbert’s successful 1956 prediction with this model, of peak US oil production in 1970, is verified by historical US production data. The relative impact of Alaskan oil is included in the data. An opinion is presented regarding planetary “peak oil”, and its implications. Coal production in the UK followed a similarly-shaped curve, so the Hubbert curve model can probably be used for planetary “peak coal” predictions. An opinion is presented regarding that scenario, although the dates are less certain for coal.
Name: How Things Burn (27 slides, initial version)
Status: Ready
Summary: This presentation covers the “kitchen physics” and “kitchen chemistry” of how various gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels burn with air. The intended audience could be laypersons, or engineering students just getting started in this discipline. To the classic “fire triangle” is added (1) mixture limits and autoignition behavior, (2) how fuel phase changes interact with combustion, (3) three basic “burn rate” regimes, (4) the influence of theoretical thermochemistry predictions, (5) an explanation of how piston engines really work and their problems, (6) the “combustion aerodynamics” of several through-flow combustors, (7) how pool and pile fires really work, and the “firestorm”, (8) solid coal and carbon particles as the odd slow-burning case, (9) the radiation physics of fires, (10) simple models for real through-flow combustors, and (11) practical effects with gas-solid slurry fuels. (Emissions phenomena and some practical case studies will be added to the next version. Future versions will likely include rockets, and various kinds of explosives.)
Name: Ramjet-Assisted Staged-Rocket Launch Vehicle (20 slides v.11-18-09)
Status: Ready
Summary: This documents the results of a back-of-the-envelope three-stage vehicle sizing study that trades higher blended performance for the higher structural fractions that allow true re-usability. Subsonic combustion ramjets with integral boosters are added to the second stage, and burned during both first and second stage operation to improve performance substantially. The third stage is a plain rocket. This is the kind of design that could result from a “clean sheet of paper” start, looking at technologies not currently “traditional” for space launch.
Name: “Lob-Up” Nuke Launch (18 slides 11-30-09)
Status: Ready
Summary: This documents the results of a back-of-the-envelope two-stage vehicle sizing study that explores how to safely use nuclear thermal rocketry for surface launch. The design takes advantage of the ramjet-assist results to trade high performance for reusable structure in the lower stage, which lofts the upper stage and payload vertically out of the atmosphere. The nuclear upper stage then fires horizontally from its inertial apogee to reach orbital velocity with the payload. It never returns to earth, and its exhaust plume never enters the atmosphere.
Name: Carrier Plane Launch (19 slides 12-18-09)
Status: Ready
Summary: This documents the results of a back-of-the-envelope vehicle sizing study that uses a horizontal takeoff and landing hypersonic airplane as the first stage of a three-stage launch vehicle to orbit. The carrier aircraft is a scale-up and extension of the technologies in the SR-71, and the design staging point is M6 at 100,000 ft altitude. The upper two stages are simplified LH2-LOX rockets, arranged in a triple cluster for easy carriage under the airplane. These stages feature heat shields, pivoting wings, and small turbojets for flyback as 3 separate items. Final circularization and de-orbit of the 3rd stage is with storable hypergolic propellants.
Name: Oil Prices, Recessions, and the War (18 slides 2-5-11)
Status: Ready
Summary: Using gasoline price history data, this document explores the connection between fuel prices and middle east foreign policy issues, and between fuel prices and economic events. Both monopoly cartel pricing effects and supply-demand market effects are explored, including the possible effects of planetary “peak oil” just beginning to crop up. The feasibility and effects are explored of displacing (with domestic alternatives) about one third of the petroleum used for all liquid transportation fuels. (This presentation replaces “The Dark Side of Oil” as an expanded update.)
Name: The Mars Mission Design (30 slides 5-7-11)
Status: Ready
Summary: This mission and vehicle concept design study explores what could be done if one presumes a “clean sheet of paper” approach. Existing or very near-term technologies and hardware are “fair game”, but no restrictions to “legacy” concepts or hardware, or to existing contractor infrastructure, are imposed. The most startling result is that a super-heavy-lift launch rocket is not necessary to send men to Mars, at substantially less risk than was accepted for the Apollo moon missions. The second most startling result is that the direct launch costs can be quite “low”, compared to Apollo or the Shuttle. This is with no technology or hardware “breakthroughs” assumed for launch. It does assume carrying through with two of three nuclear propulsion technologies from 1959-1973 times.
Contact: Gary W. Johnson, PE, PhD
gwj5886@gmail.com
http://www.txideafarm.com
http://exrocketman.blogspot.com
Name: Ethanol Experiments (set 12 – final, 1-24-11) (15 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: After characterization on gasoline during 2005, an old VW beetle was converted in October 2006, at no cost, to use E-85 ethanol fuel, and later tested as a “flex-fuel” on blends from E-15 to E-57 in 2010. An old farm tractor was also converted to E-85 with flex fuel potential. In 2007, tests began on blends from E-15 to E-45 in an unmodified pickup truck. Not long after, multiple pieces of unmodified 4-stroke lawn and garden equipment were operated routinely on E-22, then E-34 blends. In 2010, an unmodified 1998 Nissan Sentra was operated routinely on blends from E-20 to E-35, and once accidentally near E-50. Technical data of a very favorable nature were obtained on the truck and the VW. How-to information for do-it-yourself blend operations with unmodified vehicles is also included.
Name: Fuel Savings Advice (12 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: This short presentation offers both technical truth and practical advice for anyone interested in saving fuel, independent of any switch to alternative fuels. The big items are matching vehicle to mission, and carpooling if possible. A smaller item is a national speed limit, but, surprisingly, 65 mph will do as much good as 55 mph. This is because of the tradeoff between road load reductions and efficiency losses as speeds decrease, an effect not considered when the old 55 mph limit was imposed in 1974.
Name: “One Book” Presentation (18 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: This was prepared as a part of the Waco ‘One Book” project, spring 2009, related to the Homer Hickam book “Rocket Boys”. The presentation was to explain how and why I became interested in engineering, and what I did during my career, which included rocket and missile work. Many old aircraft, rocket, and other technical-item photographs were found and included, some quite rare. These were things that were simply “part of my life”, starting in the 50’s.
Name: Asteroid Results from Spain (26 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: I presented a poster paper at the 1st IAA international conference on planetary defense, held April 27-30, 2009, in Granada, Spain. This conference dealt with detection of, and mitigation of, asteroids and comets that may impact the earth. Detection efforts are in progress, but incomplete, largely for lack of funding. Concepts for mitigation schemes were discussed, but with as-yet little real development work, again largely due to lack of funding. Civil defense coordination and warning mechanisms for this international problem do not yet exist. Not discussed at the meeting: propulsion to support such schemes does not yet exist, although I identified some promising ideas abandoned long ago. Some slides of pictures taken while touring Granada are included at the end.
Name: Global Warming (vers.B 14 slides, obs. Vers.A 13 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: The earth’s climate is warming, as evidenced by polar sea ice thinning and glacier retreat on land. Icecaps on land could melt, causing massive sea level rise. Rainfall patterns (and agriculturally-fertile zones) could shift. Independent of “fault”, the options are to act, or not to act, in two areas. These are attempted mitigation, and coping with massive change. Concepts for mitigation are currently under public discussion and debate, but concepts for coping are not. The decision to act, or not, should be made on facts and logic, not politics and belief-preferences. Some experimental facts are given, and some recommendations made.
Name: Peak Oil and Coal (15 slides)
Status: Ready
Summary: The empirical “Hubbert curve” model for resource depletion is presented and explained. This includes its proper application and its limitations. Hubbert’s successful 1956 prediction with this model, of peak US oil production in 1970, is verified by historical US production data. The relative impact of Alaskan oil is included in the data. An opinion is presented regarding planetary “peak oil”, and its implications. Coal production in the UK followed a similarly-shaped curve, so the Hubbert curve model can probably be used for planetary “peak coal” predictions. An opinion is presented regarding that scenario, although the dates are less certain for coal.
Name: How Things Burn (27 slides, initial version)
Status: Ready
Summary: This presentation covers the “kitchen physics” and “kitchen chemistry” of how various gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels burn with air. The intended audience could be laypersons, or engineering students just getting started in this discipline. To the classic “fire triangle” is added (1) mixture limits and autoignition behavior, (2) how fuel phase changes interact with combustion, (3) three basic “burn rate” regimes, (4) the influence of theoretical thermochemistry predictions, (5) an explanation of how piston engines really work and their problems, (6) the “combustion aerodynamics” of several through-flow combustors, (7) how pool and pile fires really work, and the “firestorm”, (8) solid coal and carbon particles as the odd slow-burning case, (9) the radiation physics of fires, (10) simple models for real through-flow combustors, and (11) practical effects with gas-solid slurry fuels. (Emissions phenomena and some practical case studies will be added to the next version. Future versions will likely include rockets, and various kinds of explosives.)
Name: Ramjet-Assisted Staged-Rocket Launch Vehicle (20 slides v.11-18-09)
Status: Ready
Summary: This documents the results of a back-of-the-envelope three-stage vehicle sizing study that trades higher blended performance for the higher structural fractions that allow true re-usability. Subsonic combustion ramjets with integral boosters are added to the second stage, and burned during both first and second stage operation to improve performance substantially. The third stage is a plain rocket. This is the kind of design that could result from a “clean sheet of paper” start, looking at technologies not currently “traditional” for space launch.
Name: “Lob-Up” Nuke Launch (18 slides 11-30-09)
Status: Ready
Summary: This documents the results of a back-of-the-envelope two-stage vehicle sizing study that explores how to safely use nuclear thermal rocketry for surface launch. The design takes advantage of the ramjet-assist results to trade high performance for reusable structure in the lower stage, which lofts the upper stage and payload vertically out of the atmosphere. The nuclear upper stage then fires horizontally from its inertial apogee to reach orbital velocity with the payload. It never returns to earth, and its exhaust plume never enters the atmosphere.
Name: Carrier Plane Launch (19 slides 12-18-09)
Status: Ready
Summary: This documents the results of a back-of-the-envelope vehicle sizing study that uses a horizontal takeoff and landing hypersonic airplane as the first stage of a three-stage launch vehicle to orbit. The carrier aircraft is a scale-up and extension of the technologies in the SR-71, and the design staging point is M6 at 100,000 ft altitude. The upper two stages are simplified LH2-LOX rockets, arranged in a triple cluster for easy carriage under the airplane. These stages feature heat shields, pivoting wings, and small turbojets for flyback as 3 separate items. Final circularization and de-orbit of the 3rd stage is with storable hypergolic propellants.
Name: Oil Prices, Recessions, and the War (18 slides 2-5-11)
Status: Ready
Summary: Using gasoline price history data, this document explores the connection between fuel prices and middle east foreign policy issues, and between fuel prices and economic events. Both monopoly cartel pricing effects and supply-demand market effects are explored, including the possible effects of planetary “peak oil” just beginning to crop up. The feasibility and effects are explored of displacing (with domestic alternatives) about one third of the petroleum used for all liquid transportation fuels. (This presentation replaces “The Dark Side of Oil” as an expanded update.)
Name: The Mars Mission Design (30 slides 5-7-11)
Status: Ready
Summary: This mission and vehicle concept design study explores what could be done if one presumes a “clean sheet of paper” approach. Existing or very near-term technologies and hardware are “fair game”, but no restrictions to “legacy” concepts or hardware, or to existing contractor infrastructure, are imposed. The most startling result is that a super-heavy-lift launch rocket is not necessary to send men to Mars, at substantially less risk than was accepted for the Apollo moon missions. The second most startling result is that the direct launch costs can be quite “low”, compared to Apollo or the Shuttle. This is with no technology or hardware “breakthroughs” assumed for launch. It does assume carrying through with two of three nuclear propulsion technologies from 1959-1973 times.
Contact: Gary W. Johnson, PE, PhD
gwj5886@gmail.com
http://www.txideafarm.com
http://exrocketman.blogspot.com
AAAS Confirms 3 Topics
The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) publishes a refereed journal called “Science”, in which new findings are publicized, duplicated, debated, and verified. Issue 6024 of volume 331, dated 25 March 2011, has some very interesting items. The 1 April 2011 issue (volume 332, issue 6025) has more confirmation of my articles, and more details than anything I have seen (so far) in the public media about the nuclear disaster in Japan.
Relative to “Oil Prices, Recessions, and the War” dated 4 February 2011:
In issue 6024 on page 1510 is a “News Focus” article “Peak Oil Production May Already Be Here”. The “Science” article has a plot of actual production history data which verifies that non-OPEC oil production has already peaked. Closer inspection of the same plot reveals that OPEC oil production is peaking, or has just about peaked.
The article also makes the point that “unconventional oil” (such as the Alberta tar sands), cannot make up the difference between energy demand and a peaking conventional oil supply. These are all points I made in the “exrocketman” article.
It feels very nice to be verified by items published in a refereed scientific journal.
Relative to Pre-Clovis Hunters in Texas on “exrocketman” dated 9 April 2011:
In issue 6024 on page 1512 is a “News Focus” article about the Buttermilk Creek archeological site, in Texas. The actual technical report on those findings is on page 1599 of the same issue. The scientific debate and verification now begins, but it looks like they have made a pretty good case for people in Texas long before the Clovis hunters.
The institutions making up this team include Texas A&M, Baylor University, and the University of Minnesota. We can be very proud of these institutions (especially our two local ones).
It’s mighty nice to see “local folk” make good.
Relative to 3 articles on “exrocketman” about the Japan nuclear plant disaster:
In issue 6024 on pages 1504-1507 are three “News Focus” articles about the Japanese nuclear plant disaster and associated cleanup difficulties.
Issue 6025 on pages 24-25 has a News Analysis article that has more confirmation of my articles, and more details than anything I have seen (so far) in the public media.
These are also closely related to three articles of mine on “exrocketman”: “On the Nuclear Crisis in Japan 3-15-11, “Follow-Up on the Japan Nuclear Crisis” 3-17-11, and “Radiation and Humans” 3-24-11.
These “Science” articles confirm what I have been saying on “exrocketman”: that comparisons to the Chernobyl disaster are overblown. There is no credible risk in the US no matter what happens in Japan, or what tiny amounts of radiation might be detected over here. The risks in Japan are only serious within a few miles of the plant.
The Fukushima Daiichi plant has 6 reactor units, as has been widely reported. It has 7 spent fuel rod pools, one for each reactor unit, and 1 more for the entire plant, which has not been widely reported. None of these spent fuel rod pools had any sort of reactor-like containment, in spite of containing quantities of spent fuel rod assemblies resembling reactor cores. These pools were housed in buildings of ordinary construction that were destroyed by the tsunami, as was all the electrical and cooling water infrastructure for the entire plant.
According to this latest article, it is the spent fuel rod pool for unit 4 that seems to be the true problem, radiologically. The core meltdowns reported earlier seem to have little to do with the spread of radiation beyond the plant. Apparently, this pool went dry and its load of zirconium alloy fuel rod casings overheated and caught fire in the air. The article even mentions “aerosolization” of fuel materials and fission products from burning fuel rod assemblies, exactly as I wrote.
According to the articles, the long half-life and rather dangerous cesium-137 contamination found within a few miles of the plant has to be coming from the unit 4 spent fuel rod pool, because it has to come from older (spent) fuel. The very short (8-day) half-life iodine-131 contamination found as far away as Tokyo’s water supply is far less a threat, and cannot be coming from fuel rod pool 4. The article suggests reactor unit 3 as a possible source.
Finally, the article discusses upgraded design criteria for earthquake and tsunami risks, exactly as I advocated in my third article. This is the first time I have seen this issue raised in any public news forum. It is long overdue, of course. But, at least someone is beginning to look.
Once again, it is nice to be verified by data published in a refereed journal.
This may be a blog, but I always try to tell the truth. To the very best of my ability, I do!
Relative to “Oil Prices, Recessions, and the War” dated 4 February 2011:
In issue 6024 on page 1510 is a “News Focus” article “Peak Oil Production May Already Be Here”. The “Science” article has a plot of actual production history data which verifies that non-OPEC oil production has already peaked. Closer inspection of the same plot reveals that OPEC oil production is peaking, or has just about peaked.
The article also makes the point that “unconventional oil” (such as the Alberta tar sands), cannot make up the difference between energy demand and a peaking conventional oil supply. These are all points I made in the “exrocketman” article.
It feels very nice to be verified by items published in a refereed scientific journal.
Relative to Pre-Clovis Hunters in Texas on “exrocketman” dated 9 April 2011:
In issue 6024 on page 1512 is a “News Focus” article about the Buttermilk Creek archeological site, in Texas. The actual technical report on those findings is on page 1599 of the same issue. The scientific debate and verification now begins, but it looks like they have made a pretty good case for people in Texas long before the Clovis hunters.
The institutions making up this team include Texas A&M, Baylor University, and the University of Minnesota. We can be very proud of these institutions (especially our two local ones).
It’s mighty nice to see “local folk” make good.
Relative to 3 articles on “exrocketman” about the Japan nuclear plant disaster:
In issue 6024 on pages 1504-1507 are three “News Focus” articles about the Japanese nuclear plant disaster and associated cleanup difficulties.
Issue 6025 on pages 24-25 has a News Analysis article that has more confirmation of my articles, and more details than anything I have seen (so far) in the public media.
These are also closely related to three articles of mine on “exrocketman”: “On the Nuclear Crisis in Japan 3-15-11, “Follow-Up on the Japan Nuclear Crisis” 3-17-11, and “Radiation and Humans” 3-24-11.
These “Science” articles confirm what I have been saying on “exrocketman”: that comparisons to the Chernobyl disaster are overblown. There is no credible risk in the US no matter what happens in Japan, or what tiny amounts of radiation might be detected over here. The risks in Japan are only serious within a few miles of the plant.
The Fukushima Daiichi plant has 6 reactor units, as has been widely reported. It has 7 spent fuel rod pools, one for each reactor unit, and 1 more for the entire plant, which has not been widely reported. None of these spent fuel rod pools had any sort of reactor-like containment, in spite of containing quantities of spent fuel rod assemblies resembling reactor cores. These pools were housed in buildings of ordinary construction that were destroyed by the tsunami, as was all the electrical and cooling water infrastructure for the entire plant.
According to this latest article, it is the spent fuel rod pool for unit 4 that seems to be the true problem, radiologically. The core meltdowns reported earlier seem to have little to do with the spread of radiation beyond the plant. Apparently, this pool went dry and its load of zirconium alloy fuel rod casings overheated and caught fire in the air. The article even mentions “aerosolization” of fuel materials and fission products from burning fuel rod assemblies, exactly as I wrote.
According to the articles, the long half-life and rather dangerous cesium-137 contamination found within a few miles of the plant has to be coming from the unit 4 spent fuel rod pool, because it has to come from older (spent) fuel. The very short (8-day) half-life iodine-131 contamination found as far away as Tokyo’s water supply is far less a threat, and cannot be coming from fuel rod pool 4. The article suggests reactor unit 3 as a possible source.
Finally, the article discusses upgraded design criteria for earthquake and tsunami risks, exactly as I advocated in my third article. This is the first time I have seen this issue raised in any public news forum. It is long overdue, of course. But, at least someone is beginning to look.
Once again, it is nice to be verified by data published in a refereed journal.
This may be a blog, but I always try to tell the truth. To the very best of my ability, I do!
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