Well, when this Ukraine war started, like most folks, I expected Russia to over-run Ukraine in a matter of days. That obviously did not happen! The war has see-sawed back-and-forth some months now, and here of late, it can only be said that Ukraine is winning with Western help. I did not expect that at the outset, but I am glad to see it, because I am no fan of Putin in Russia!
We have not seen the end of this yet. Russia may again counterattack, and conquer territory again. You have to be prepared for that. But, if
the current trend continues through the next couple of months, it would seem that the Russians are headed
for complete defeat. And Ukraine may yet
eject them from all its territory,
including the Crimea that Russia stole 8 years ago.
You really have to understand what that prospect
portends. In reference 1, I compared Putin to Adolf Hitler, and indicated that this invasion of Ukraine is
the start of World War 3 in Europe. I
stand by that assessment. The parallels
to 1930’s Europe are just too close.
Think Czechoslovakia.
The problem is a longstanding military policy of the old
Soviet government in Russia, that
tactical nuclear weapons are to be used to avoid defeat on the
battlefield. Putin is well-known to wish
to restore the old Soviet empire, and he
was a functionary in the old Soviet secret police, the KGB. Why would he not want to continue that
policy, especially now, facing defeat on the battlefield by the
Ukrainians? You need to face that
prospect, unpalatable as it is.
Nuclear war warning #1: if this drags on another month or two in
Ukraine’s favor, expect the Russians to
use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine! The effects of that will be felt throughout
Europe, mostly radiological. These will be low-altitude air bursts, and even surface bursts, of weapons in the several kiloton range. NATO will be forced to intervene, to stop the radiological damage to its
European members, and that might well
start the general war that becomes World War 3.
If Putin fails to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, he faces two, and only two, outcomes that he cannot abide! He will either be defeated in Ukraine, whereupon he will be deposed by his own military and his people, or he will “mobilize his full military might”, meaning he drafts everybody of age in Russia into the army to conquer Ukraine. Whereupon his people sooner or later will rise up and depose him, assisted by his military. Either way, he falls and dies. So he will use them in Ukraine!
Nuclear war warning #2: if Putin falls, he will lash out at the West! This will take the form of at least a limited
strategic nuclear weapon strike at Europe,
and quite probably the US as well.
It could be a massive strike, he
really is that dangerous! Either
way, there will be atomic attacks in the
multi-megaton range, and the bigger
scenario could end all life on the planet.
Putin will not care about that! Either he lives and remains in power, or he is deposed and dies. He cares not for anybody else! The old “mutual assured destruction” (MAD)
deterrent to the big strategic strike does not apply with a madman Hitler clone
like Putin! He is quite unlike
Yeltsin, Gorbachev, or even Kruschev. I knew he was evil, even way back in the G. W. Bush days (“rootin
tootin Putin”).
Somebody, somewhere, outside Ukraine, will get A-bombed by Putin at one level or another, before he falls.
Nuclear war warning #3:
if on the other hand, things go
against the Ukrainians, and Putin succeeds
in conquering the little country, that
will embolden another Adolf Hitler clone in China: namely Xi Jin Ping. He will then invade and conquer Taiwan as
quickly as he can, which will start
World War 3 in the Pacific between China and the US, very much like the Pearl Harbor attack started
World War 2 in the Pacific for the US versus Japan.
If we intervene for Taiwan,
what starts as a conventional war between the US and China will rapidly
escalate! And that war will go tactical
nuclear rather quickly! Then it will
rapidly escalate into strategic nuclear war,
quite probably ending life on this planet!
If we do not intervene, then China will go on a conquering-territory
rampage in the western Pacific, just
like the Japanese did after Pearl Harbor!
Either way, it is World War 3! And strategic nuclear weapons WILL be used! To stop this,
we must stop Putin in Europe to deter Xi!
Bottom line:
Stopping Putin means he must fall, and we are going to be A-bombed at one level or another as he falls. That is inevitable. But it is required to stop Xi, who will otherwise eventually try to destroy us all. He has the economy and military might to do so, if undeterred. Russia does not.
You have been warned!
References
#1. G. W. Johnson,
“What the Ukraine Thing Is Really All About”, 20 February,
2022, article posted by the
author on http://exrocketman.blogspot.com
#2. G. W. Johnson, "Mishandling Classified Materials is a Very Serious Crime", 1 September, 2022, article posted by the author on http://exrocketman.blogspot.com
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Update 9-16-2022: the timeline for all this war risk overlaps with the timeline for the insurrections and uprisings that I fully expect will follow the indictments and trials of key "Trumpworld" figures. I expect those indictments to start in the month or two after the November election, which is also pretty close to the time I expect to see Putin use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine (assuming the current war trends against the occupying Russian army continue without change for another month or two). See ref. 2 for a discussion of only part of why I think those indictments and arrests are coming.
There's no point denying that these "Trumpworld" uprisings will happen, we've already seen a smaller one Jan. 6, 2021, at the Capitol. "Trumpworld" is a cult, and facts do not matter to cult believers. There is no talking them out of this, their belief system includes a need to oppose by force all who do not believe with them. There's more than one key cult leader now (there are several, actually).
Indictments and arrests of any of them will start the uprisings. These will be armed insurrections, and they will be killing lots of people. They will try to stage attempts at an armed coup to take over the country and install one of their key cult figures as a fascist dictator, which will require our regular military, to put these coup attempts down.
We in the US are in for some really bad times between about November's election and maybe (at the earliest) sometime in the spring, putting down the armed "Trumpworld" revolts. If either of the European and Pacific war scenarios detailed above also come to pass, and escalate, then we may not survive this at all! THAT is what I am trying to warn you about!
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Update 10-5-2022: I see other public figures are now beginning to warn of Putin possibly using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and where that might lead. So if you didn't believe me before, you really ought to reconsider.
Note that Putin cannot win territory with nuclear weapons that he could not win with an army! This will be a revenge attack out of desperation, and no one can predict where that will lead. We don't even know for sure that he would only strike Ukraine. Desperation is fundamentally irrational.
The only thing we currently know for sure, is that he cannot be allowed to get away with using even small nuclear weapons in Ukraine. That would embolden too many other would-be Hitlers, like Kim Jon-Un and Xi Jinping.
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Update 10-26-2022:
The threads are coming together. The news reporters have yet to put this together all the way, but I have. Don't say I didn't warn you!
There's mysterious "construction" activity at the Russian-controlled Ukrainian nuclear power plant that inspectors are not allowed to see, there's allegations by Russia that Ukraine is going to use a "dirty bomb", there's ongoing Russian retreat even without a major Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region, there's Putin's threats to use nuclear weapons if this-or-that does-or-does-not happen (the "reasons" don't matter, but the threat does), there's Putin's very serious difficulties sustaining his invasion and war (such as resorting to Iranian-supplied suicide drones instead of real military missiles), and there's much talk about false flag attacks.
Putin's war is failing. He's unable to solve the logistics to avoid defeat, and he wants revenge on the Ukrainians. But he knows overt war with NATO is a total crushing defeat for him. The "construction" activity at the nuclear plant is the construction of dirty bombs using conventional warheads plus nuclear waste from the plant. This dirty bomb (or bombs) will be used in Russian-held Ukrainian territory in a false flag attack, and blamed on the Ukrainians, providing a thin excuse for Russian forces to use a tactical nuclear weapon (or weapons). I cannot say what target will be nuked, but if the previous pattern of extreme brutality holds, it will be a Ukrainian city, not a military target. Casualties and devastation will resemble Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The fallout will damage NATO member countries. That requires a NATO response, meaning getting into the war, and that includes us (it's an Article 5 thing). This would be the time to destroy all Russian assets and forces throughout Ukraine, including the Crimea.
If we have the stomach for it. Because Putin will likely fling more nukes when we do. And when he does, the only remaining choice is to go after him in Russia.
It's coming soon!
Update 11-22-2022:
Whatever that was, that fell in Poland and killed 2 civilians, it came closer to starting direct war between Russia and NATO, than anyone wants to admit in public. There is some reason to believe the story that this was a Russian-made air defense missile fired by Ukraine that went astray, and there is also some reason not to believe it. Either way, something like this is liable to start the war that goes out of control.
I think pressuring Ukraine to negotiate with Russia is misguided at best, and probably morally wrong. Russia hardly ever negotiated in good faith as the Soviet Union, and it is still behaving that same way under Putin today. Nothing Putin (or his minions) says can be trusted, that much we know for sure, given the last 8 years' history regarding Ukraine.
I would recommend a 3-fold ultimatum to Putin instead. (1) If a Russian-made weapons falls in a NATO country again, regardless of whoever fired it, then NATO is at war with you. (2) If any shells hit that nuclear power plant in Ukraine, regardless of who fired them, then NATO is at war with you. (3) If you continue committing war crimes in Ukraine by targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, deliberately or not, then NATO is a war with you.
Then move the armies into place on the relevant borders to enforce it. Do that, and I think you will see Putin stand down and withdraw from Ukraine.
Otherwise, you will not see him withdraw, without that overt threat of his own destruction. And the longer this goes on, the more likely this war will get out of control as Putin gets ever more desperate to avoid defeat on the battlefield, and the more likely it will go nuclear.
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