Sunday, February 20, 2022

What the Ukraine Thing Is Really All About

This is an opinion piece!

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Heard it live from the Russian ambassador’s mouth on CBS’s “Face the Nation”,  Sunday,  20 February!  The Ukraine crisis is not about the Ukraine,  it is about NATO!  They want NATO greatly-reduced in strength,  presumably to leave them freer to try rebuilding the old Soviet empire by re-annexing the breakaway territories.  

That is exactly why they demanded limits on NATO that we could not abide,  in order to “stop” the invasion.  To them,  it was worth a try to see if they could intimidate the West,  and get what they wanted without the cost of an invasion. 

This is almost no different from the way Hitler intimidated and extorted his way to start annexing parts of Europe,  which of course led to World War 2 in Europe.  The only real difference is that there were no nuclear weapons available at the start of World War 2.  (There were by its end,  and the role they played in its end is another quite-complicated story.)

Putin and the Russian oligarchs who support each other do not care about Western economic sanctions,  because no ambitious dictators ever really cared about the welfare of the people they oppress.  (I double-dog dare you to name one who did!)  But,  the real risk of revolution if things get bad enough,  is exactly why there is disinformation and false-flag activity to whip up support at home in Russia for this invasion.  Temporary though such support may be,  it will last long enough for the invasion.

With state-controlled media spewing propaganda,  this is easier to do in Russia than here.    But,  spewing that same propaganda to people in the countries of the opposition,  is a way to divide their populations and reduce their opposition,  to one extent or another.  We in the US are not immune to this nefarious activity. 

My fellow citizens,  you should be aware that there are recognized Russian state propaganda agencies broadcasting right here in the US,  masquerading as “foreign news services”,  and trying to interfere in our elections,  for several years now.  Are you familiar with Sputnik and RT (Russia Today)?  You should be!

And you should also know this:  I have lost count of how many times the infamous opinion-mongers at Fox News have quoted various outrageous claims,  that I was able to trace directly back to RT and Sputnik as the sources.  “Providing aid and comfort to the enemy” is in the official definition of treason,  or did you not know that?  That was the basis for the actual treason conviction of the US citizen who was on Japanese radio as “Tokyo Rose” during World War 2. 

As a result of this Russian focus on getting a reduction in the strength of NATO,  and the West refusing,  the invasion of the Ukraine is inevitable,  and there will be war there.  It will be lopsided,  and the Ukraine will quickly lose and be annexed into Russia,  or at least a Russian puppet placed in control.  The Western powers have decided to let this happen,  and punish Russia with economic sanctions,  not military force.  Russia’s post-Soviet economy is fragile and vulnerable,  but this strategy will take much time to have any effect that we in the West can see. 

In the longer term,  Putin may well fall to revolution,  as the Russian economy goes into complete collapse.  But he is quite likely to lash out at the West before he goes,  and that may well involve nuclear weapons.  Even without that,  the collapse of the Russian economy will cause problems in economies worldwide,  because they are all linked far closer than any economies were at the start of World War 2.  You need to be aware of that,  too.  Opposition in any form to ambitious dictators always has its price.  Often,  it is a very high price.  This one will be.

We learned during the lead-up to World War 2 that you cannot appease ambitious dictators,  you must oppose them,  no matter the price.  There is no other way.  I hope this slow-motion attempt to collapse the Russian economy is enough opposition to ward-off the start of a World War 3,  which otherwise might well start from Putin’s lashing-out at us with nuclear weapons,  when he does fall from power.  But it is only a hope!  That is how high this price might well turn out to be!

The stakes are very high.  The risks are very high.  But Putin and the oligarchs who support him,  must go!  There is no other choice.  Russia’s brief flirtation with democracy after the fall of the Soviet empire,  must resume.  

Why?  We in the West are going to need the Russians on our side to help oppose another ambitious dictator in China,  one with a whole lot more economic power behind him. 

Update 2-21-2022:  

Late breaking Monday 21 February:  Putin today begins the Russian invasion of the Ukraine,  using recognition of the Russian-backed separatists in Donbas and Luhansk as the excuse.  There is now no choice for the Western powers except to immediately maximize the economic sanctions!  The only possible goal now is to collapse the Russian economy as fast as is possible,  causing his fall by revolution at home.  It will take time.  Meanwhile,  the Ukraine will slowly cease to exist.

Update 2-24-2022:

Russia is really invading the Ukraine,  as events clearly show.  I told you so!  In the piece above!

So Putin and his government officials are proving to be the liars that I said they were in the piece above.  There is no substantive difference between the behavior of Putin and the behavior of Adolf Hitler.  You can believe nothing he says at face value,  same as was true with Hitler.  Instead,  you must parse his words against his prior words and behavior,  to try to predict what evil he will commit next.  

And,  beware of people who seem to admire him.  They are out there.  Putin has already threatened anybody who resists him militarily with nuclear weapons.  He didn't use those words,  but the meaning was quite clear!  You need no more proof of Putin's evil nature than that.  Putin's admirers would thus seem to be evil themselves.  Which is why I said beware of them.

The West must do more than simple economic sanctions;  they need to topple Putin as soon as possible.  It will take utterly-extreme sanctions,  plus cyberattacks,  plus assassination attempts to do this.  If he falls to a revolution at home,  be aware he is quite likely to lash out at the West as he falls.  I predict he will lash out with those same nuclear weapons.  Y'all have been warned!

You will note that Xi's China is not joining the sanctions against Putin's Russia,  but instead trying to subvert their effects.  Why would he do that?  Easy.  Xi needs Putin in Russia to divert the world's attention from his own ambitions of conquest. Y'all have been warned!

Next on Putin's target list are the other ex-Soviet republics,  and some of them are now members of NATO.  That means that war between Russia and NATO is now inevitable.  It's an Article 5 thing.  The inevitability of such war is precisely because Putin perceives no resistance to his conquering of the Ukraine (it was the same with Hitler).  As it says in the piece above,  Putin and his oligarch supporters in Russia do not care about the Russian people suffering as their economy collapses.  It will take time for them to turn on him.  The only remaining question is "how soon?",  because I rather doubt he can be toppled fast enough to avoid this war-with-NATO outcome.  Again,  I have warned y'all!

Update 3-7-2022:  I see no reason to change anything I have said,  especially the 2-24 update.  

Update 3-14-2022:  The beginnings of WW3 have already started,  whether any of you like it or not.  There will be nuclear weapons used before this is over.  The only real question now is how to prosecute this war without starting the massive nuclear exchange that will destroy most life on the planet. 

Prediction:  if we rely only on sanctions trying to topple Putin with a domestic revolution,  that takes time (months,  maybe a year or more).  During that time,  Putin with conquer Ukraine committing foul atrocities and genocide along the way.  Then he will invade other breakaway countries that had been part of the Soviet Union,  one after another.  He will not stop until militarily opposed.  He may not stop even then.  Same as it was with Hitler.  Thus WW3 between Russia and the West seems to be inevitable.

Observation:  something like the strike in Ukraine immediately adjacent to Poland is the opportunity to militarily oppose Putin without WW3 immediately escalating into total planetary destruction.  If he were to attack a NATO member (and he will,  Estonia Latvia and Lithuania were once Russian and are now NATO,  as is Poland,  and several more),  Article 5 triggers war as a response. Had Putin's army screwed up and actually hit Poland,  that's the excuse to push them back,  and push them out of Ukraine while we are doing it. Without that military opposition,  Putin WILL NEVER stop!  Neither did Hitler.

One more time:  whether we do anything or not,  after a while,  Putin's own people will eventually rise up and overthrow him.  As he topples,  HE WILL LASH OUT at the West!  That will be with nuclear weapons,  more likely tactical weapons used in Europe,  but there is a significant chance he might fling ICBM's at the US.  

It might be better to oppose him militarily,  earlier in this process.  That way we restrain him at least somewhat,  before he topples to that domestic revolution,  and lashes out with those nuclear weapons.  

Something to think about.  Think hard about it!

Update 3-23-2022:  I am surprised and pleased to see how stiff the Ukrainian resistance has proven to be.  As far as I am concerned,  it is no longer a certainty that Russia will conquer them.  Still likely,  but not certain.  The rest of my predictions,  including who-knows-what violence when Putin lashes out at us when he topples,  still stand.  

Update 4-13-2022:  I looked up whether napalm was still a legal weapon of war.  It is,  but its use against civilians is now considered to be a war crime!  So,  you may only use it against enemy military forces.  So be it!

The Russian military convoys strung out for miles along Ukrainian highways are a perfect target for air-dropped napalm bombs.  You just fly down the road,  pickling-off bomb after bomb after bomb. 

I suggest that the western allies make both the attack aircraft and a whole lot of napalm bombs available to the Ukrainians.  Some fighter aircraft to maintain a combat air patrol above the attack aircraft may also be necessary.  

Losses to Russian air defense will be inevitable.  So you send more of this stuff,  rather than less.

The same applies to the bombardment positions being established by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.  Some of these are artillery,  and some are tactical bombardment missiles.  Doesn’t matter:  all would be destroyed by massive napalm attacks.  Without much civilian destruction,  if any.

This has to be done in a timely fashion,  something that seems to escape most politicians,  here and in other countries.  Time is of the essence.  Just get on with it!

The sooner Putin loses this war with massive casualties,  the sooner his people will rise up and topple him.  Is that not the ultimate objective here,  whether anyone wants to admit it or not?

Economic sanctions are taking too long.  Send the Ukrainians the napalm bombs,  and the aircraft needed to use them.

Update 4-16-22:  What the Russians are threatening the west about,  is exactly what scares them the most!  Therefore,  increase the heavy weapons sent to Ukraine,  including what I suggested in the 4-13-22 update just above,  about napalm bombs and the aircraft to carry them.  

The Russians are now worried about Finland and Sweden joining NATO,  which is why they are threatening everybody if such were to happen.  

So,  make that happen sooner,  rather than later!  It is the NATO Article 5 promise that an attack on one is an attack on all,  that scares the ever-loving piss out of Putin!  It is also EXACTLY why he doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO!  Because he knows that war with NATO leads to a defeat of Russia,  and the end of his autocratic reign.  That last is his REAL fear!  

Simple as that!  And just as messy,  if it comes to war with Russia.  I've already told you what is going to happen if/when Putin topples.  So,  how is THAT worse than any other overt war with Russia?  Quit being so f***ing timid dealing with Putin!

Think about it!  Then vote for somebody who will actually do something that makes any sense!  Few currently in office qualify,  from either party.  Party does NOT matter!  You want somebody who will actually DO something!  Period!  End of issue!

You have ALWAYS HAD TERM LIMITS!  No Constitutional amendment is necessary!

Stop voting for incumbents who won't do anything about the problems we face!  Once you know the incumbent won't do anything,  vote for his opponent.  Party doesn't matter.  Multiple terms in office leading to corruption does matter.  

You CANNOT do worse by voting for "the other guy"!  You MIGHT do better!  Keep this "throw-the-bastards-out" philosophy up,  until someone actually does what needs to be done!  Then keep him,  but only until he gets corrupted.  And he will!

Update 4-27-2022:  

Putin is now threatening to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if "we" (The US and NATO) don't stop shipping weapons to Ukraine.  What he screams loudest about is what he fears most.  The words he uses do not matter,  it is the action:  the attempted extortion to stop the weapons shipments.  

Shipping them the really heavy stuff,  and in mass quantities,  is exactly what we need to do!  That will cause Putin's invasion to be a military failure,  and help speed his toppling by revolution at home.  (This could be over even quicker,  if we gave the Ukrainians some napalm to use on the supply convoys and the massed artillery and rocket-launcher positions.  As indicated above,  I checked on the legality of that under international law.) 

I have already predicted that Putin will lash out at the west with a few nuclear weapons as he topples.  That is inevitable.  He may also use a tactical nuke or two in Ukraine,  before his invasion fails there.  That is also almost inevitable now.  Putin has no qualms about using such weapons,  but he does have a longstanding policy of using them to prevent defeat. 

The "trick" here is distinguishing a small number of ballistic missiles from a mass attack.  That puts a razor edge on the possibility of this needless war turning into the all-out nuclear disaster we have always feared and avoided.  The cold war-era symmetrical reluctance to commit nuclear suicide no longer obtains.  And THAT is why Putin is so dangerous to us all!  This is a war warning!

As I said above,  there is no discernible difference between this situation and the beginnings of WW2 in Europe.  Putin is a ruthless clone of Adolf Hitler,  and he will not stop until opposed in force,  or until he is dead.  Learn from history,  or be destroyed by this madman's reckless actions.  

Simple as that!  And just as hard to learn as it was in 1939. 

Update 5-18-2022:  I see no reason to change the original article or any of the updates.  I see plenty of reason to change politicians serving in office who are screwing around not getting this job done,  by either impeachment or by election.  

Update 7-7-2022:  I still see no reason to change anything so far.  Only an addition:  there are two budding Hitler clones that we face,  not just Putin in Russia.  The other is in China,  and he has a far larger economy and military establishment behind him.  He is the bigger threat.

He is watching:  if Putin conquers Ukraine,  he will invade Taiwan,  which will start WW3 by bringing the US into direct conflict with China.  If Putin is unsuccessful,  he won't be so eager to invade Taiwan.  So Putin must be unsuccessful,  there is no choice here!

The parallels to WW2 are almost too close:  Putin trying to conquer territories more-or-less unopposed in Europe,  with the more massive threat China starting a war with the US in the Pacific,  with a Pearl Harbor-like attack on Taiwan.  

Once again,  you have been warned!

Ukraine needs napalm bombs and the attack planes to carry them,  to stop Putin.  Just get on with it!

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

A Concept for an On-Orbit Propellant Depot

Update 10-25-2022:  a version of this was presented at the 2022 Mars Society convention at ASU in Tempe,  AZ.  It was well-received.

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This article describes a concept for an on-orbit propellant depot capable of refilling visiting craft,  which presumes the visiting craft have rendezvous and docking capabilities.  This is only a concept,  which has not had any design analysis. 

Such a depot needs orbit adjustment,  reboost,  and debris avoidance propulsion capability.  There is the option to propel the depot sufficiently that it might “go where the job is”,  instead of having the visiting craft come to it,  which could assist with some aspects of orbital debris removal.  But because the facility is so large,  a separate space tug is a far better option for such missions.

Classes of Propellants

There are fundamentally two completely different classes of propellants to handle.  These are the more-or-less room-temperature storable propellants,  now most commonly used in thruster and attitude-control systems,  and there are the cryogenic “main stage” propellants,  which do in fact include the storable material kerosene.  The thruster storables need to be supplied in relatively small quantities,  while the main stage cryogens (and the kerosene) need to be handled in very large quantities.

Zero-gravity propellant ullage problems have been thoroughly discussed in Ref. 1.  The solution for the storable propellants (and the storable kerosene) is the bladdered tank.  This could be a free bladder,  a side-everted bladder,  or an axially-everted bladder.  The exact bladder geometry to be selected is not the real issue here,  in a concept design description.  Those geometries are discussed in Ref. 1.

The solution for the cryogenic propellants has been rather difficult to find.  As discussed in Ref. 1,  the historical solution for various rocket stages requiring free-fall restart has been application of ullage thrust.  The same is said in Ref. 2.  There have been some ideas tested and flown that take advantage of surface tension effects,  as discussed in Ref. 2.  Those same references point out that application of ullage thrust can be expensive in terms of ullage motor propellant quantities,  if you have to do it many times.  The solution selected for this quandary is the spinning tank technology described in Ref. 1.

The other piece of this puzzle is the facility occupancy by a crew.  There is no need to continuously-man this facility!  You only need to send up a crew when there is a propellant transfer to be made.  Once done,  the crew returns to Earth.  There are already standard docking ports of the necessary types (plural) on the International Space Station.  You just equip this facility’s crew module with those same docking ports,  plus some room for a few future new designs.

What Propellants to Have In Stock

The small-quantity thruster propellants under consideration here are the four common hydrazine variants,  and hypergolic nitrogen tetroxide (NTO) as the oxidizer for all of them.  Those hydrazine variants are plain hydrazine (C2H4),  monomethyl hydrazine (MMH),  unsymmetrical dimethyl hydrazine (UDMH),  and the brand-name product Aerozine-50,  (a 50-50 blend of UDMH and plain hydrazine).  These are commonly stored at significant pressure,  for pressure-fed thruster systems.

The mostly-cryogenic combinations are (storable) rocket-grade kerosene (RP-1),  cryogenic liquid methane (LCH4,  which is not the same as liquified natural gas),  and cryogenic liquid hydrogen (LH2),  with cryogenic liquid oxygen (LOX) as the oxidizer for all of them.  These are commonly stored at rather low pressures,  only such that boiloff is slowed or prevented.  Such engines are usually fed by turbopumps.  List follows:

Fuel                       oxidizer                application

C2H4                     NTO                      small-quantity thrusters

MMH                    NTO                      small-quantity thrusters

UDMH                  NTO                      small-quantity thrusters

Aerozine-50          NTO                      small-quantity thrusters

RP1                       LOX                       main stage propellant

LCH4                     LOX                       main stage propellant

LH2                        LOX                       main stage propellant

There are two other storable oxidizers,  although neither has been used in spacecraft for some years now.  Those are inhibited red fuming nitric acid (IRFNA) and high-test hydrogen peroxide (H2O2).  If such should ever be demanded again,  you just add extra storable oxidizer modules to the facility for them.

Properly-Applying Spinning-Tank Technology to Solve Cryogen Ullage Problems

The “trick” is not to spin the cryogenic tanks while they are attached to the depot!  That introduces severe sealing problems and the resulting logistical problems. 

Instead,  the craft to be refueled docks to a tank,  detaches it from the depot,  and moves off some distance,  then spins up with the tank docked to the craft,  to effect the transfer tank-to-spacecraft with pumps.  Then it de-spins and returns the tank to the depot. You do this twice:  once for the fuel,  then again for oxidizer.  See Figure 1.  Vapor exchange is required along with liquid transfer,  per Ref. 1. 

Figure 1 – Spinning-Tank Technology Applied to Cryogenic Refill On-Orbit

Transfers to the depot from tanker craft work exactly the same way:  detach the empty tank to be filled,  move off and spin up the docked tank-and-spacecraft,  transfer the liquid (and vapor),  then de-spin and return the filled tank to the depot.  See again Figure 1. 

Spin-up/spin-down thruster propellants are minimized by the use of “rifle-bullet spin”,  and also very much by being limited to only the inertia of spacecraft plus tank,  not the entire depot or its entire assemblage of tanks!  It is end-to-end docking plus that “rifle-bullet spin”,  of only the tank and visiting craft,  so the moment of inertia,  and total impulse required of the spin thrusters,  is minimized.  This was well-discussed in Ref. 1.  At about 1 rpm and near 2 m radii,  the spin induces about 0.0022 gee (corrected value 2-4-22). 

That's for the cryogenic materials only.  The storables are in the same sort of bladdered tanks as the spacecraft that use them.  You just dock with the depot module and pump,  from bladdered tank to bladdered tank.  Pressurant gases are involved to push on the bladders.  There is no spin needed.

The only design requirements imposed on the craft transferring-out cryogenic liquids,  are the need for propellant suction points out on the tank periphery,  as well as on the aft domes,  plus the presence of perforated radial baffles in the tank that speed the spin-up of the liquid globules inside.  See again Ref. 1.  Craft that only receive liquids do not need periphery drains or baffles,  spin or not.

Depot Station Layout

Excepting kerosene,  the bladdered storables are primarily for attitude/maneuvering thrusters.  Those quantities are far lower,  no matter which combination you desire.  So there are hydrazine tanks for around a 1 cubic meter each of hydrazine,  MMH,  UDMH,  and Aerozine-50,  plus tanks for about 5 cubic meters of NTO.   Those are 1-ton-class quantities of each fuel material,  and a 5-ton-class quantity of NTO to support any-and-all of them. 

The storable kerosene,  and the cryogenics LOX,  LCH4,  and LH2 are needed in far,  far larger quantities,  being main stage propellants.  The kerosene transfers just like the other storables,  except the tanks are far larger,  around 300 cubic meters for a nominal 250 ton quantity.  The LCH4 is near twice that volume,  and the LH2 around 11-12 times that volume.  This assumes very large receiving craft,  and roughly-equal frequency of demand for each fuel type,  which may or may not be actually true.  The shared LOX volume to support each of these is simply huge (at around 2300 cubic meters),  that being the largest volume stored on the depot station.

See Figure 2 for some crudely-estimated quantities.  These were done in an Excel spreadsheet.

Figure 2 – Crudely-Estimated Quantities for Storables and for Cryogens

Reboost and attitude control could be a combination of the storable propellants plus electric propulsion powered by some solar panels,  all located on (or in) a “power and propulsion module”.  This power and propulsion module would be at one end of the depot station.  The crew compartment would be at the other end.  You want the NTO tanks near one end,  as physically far from the 4 types of hydrazine tanks as possible,  to avoid any possibilities of explosions-upon-contact,  if there are ever any leaks.  These materials are hypergolic,  even in vacuum.

The large kerosene bladdered tanks should probably be at the same end as the hydrazine tanks,  just closer than the hydrazines to the center of mass.  The largest and heaviest item is the LOX tankage,  which should be near center of mass.  The LH2 tanks can be at the same end as the NTO storage,  just closer to the center of mass than the NTO.  I show the LCH4 tanks forward of the LOX,  just to better center the LOX on the center of gravity.  Because of the toxicity of NTO residues from any spills,  the crew compartment should be far away from the NTO storage.  That puts the propulsion and power module at the NTO end of the facility.  See Figures 3,  4,  and 5.

Figure 3 – The Bladdered-Tank Storable Modules

Those modules associated with bladdered tanks need an adjacent docking adapter for the visiting spacecraft,  with the tanks situated such that there is clearance to come in and dock.  Once docked,  you just hook up the transfer lines,  and do the fluid transfer.  This would also apply to tankers refilling the facility.  There is no spin,  and the pressurant gas supplies plus the plumbing and electrical,  are within the depot module truss.  The visiting craft undocks and then redocks elsewhere,  to switch from fuel to oxidizer.  There are manipulator arms on the modules to assist with the docking operations.

Figure 4 – The Cryogenic Tank Modules

Figure 5 – Recommended Facility Layout

The cryogenics are a different situation.  These large tanks must be perpendicular to the axis of the depot facility,  and must have appropriate docking gear on both ends of the tanks.  The visiting craft docks directly to the end of the tank,  and makes the fluid and vapor connections.  Then it detaches the tank from the depot,  and moves off a short distance (for safety).  The docked vehicle-and-tank gets spun up for the fluid transfer,  then de-spun once completed.  It redocks the tank with the station,  undoes the connections,  and finally undocks from the re-docked tank. 

If both fuel and oxidizer are cryogenic,  then one repeats this procedure with the appropriate other tanks.  There are a few relocatable manipulator arms that attach to the cryogenic tank docking structures,  which assist with all the docking operations.  Not every tank needs a manipulator arm.

Preventing Incorrect Connections

If the visiting vehicle is to be refilled from the facility,  its tanks need the plumbing connections to make the indicated hook-ups.  This is pretty simple for the storables,  including the kerosene.  For the cryogens,  the visiting vehicle does not necessarily need the perforated spin baffles or periphery fluid drains that are needed in the depot tanks.  But,  any tankers attempting to refill facility tanks will need these extra plumbing features,  as was indicated in Figure 1.

Since the oxidizer quantities are nearly always larger than the fuel quantities,  I recommend making the hose/plumbing connections and fittings for oxidizers about 1.5 to 2 times physically larger than the fuel fittings.  That prevents incorrect hook-ups,  something particularly important with the hypergolic hydrazines and NTO. 

However,  there also needs to be some sort of keying feature on all of the fuel connections,  so that only the correct fittings can be coupled,  even though they are of equal size.  You do not want to mix species among the hydrazines,  or get kerosene when you wanted a hydrazine,  or vice versa. 

You also need to key the oxidizer fittings by species,  just in case IRFNA or high-test H2O2 ever get added to the facility.  It would be harder,  but not impossible,  to mix up NTO and LOX,  just because of the difference in bladdered versus spinning-tank technologies.  But keying the fittings absolutely stops that.

These fitting sizes and keying features are a critical safety requirement,  and should be standardized “up front”,  so that everyone is using the same equipment!

Power and Propulsion Module

This item (also shown in Figure 5) has the thrusters and the solar panels required to power the entire facility,  and to move it as needed.  Those thrust applications would include reboost for orbital decay,  deorbit at end-of-life,  debris avoidance maneuvers,  and general attitude control.  I’d recommend something similar to the Space Shuttle “OMS” and attitude-thruster systems,  which were a hydrazine variant-NTO thruster design,  plus some sort of electric thruster,  for its far-higher specific impulse,  for the reboost operations and any other orbit changes. 

My own preference for the electric thruster would be an iodine thruster,  for the easy fuel storage and handling,  even though those are not yet very common,  or even in wide use.  The bigger the electric system,  the more solar panels would be needed on this module,  and there are geometric limits to that.

Crew Habitat and Docking Module

The layout in Figure 5 also shows a crew habitation module at the other end from the power and propulsion module.  There is attached to it a multi-port docking module for crew transfer vehicles.  Crews would be required during any refilling operations for visiting vessels,  or for tankers re-supplying the facility.  Otherwise,  there is no need for crew aboard,  not even during transits to other orbits.  Crews would be aboard relatively short-term for the necessary fluid transfer operations.  Long term occupancy (like the International Space Station) is not an issue here!

Options For Spinning-Up (and De-Spinning) Cryo-Tank and Vessel

The concepts selected here do minimize the thruster propellant quantities required for spin-up and de-spin,  assuming thrusters are used for this purpose.  That is the historically-proven way to do it. 

However,  adding a flywheel for electric torque spin-up and de-spin is another viable (if undemonstrated) option.  This flywheel should probably be within the docking adapter on the end of the tank adjacent to the vessel,  so as to be nearest the docked center of gravity. 

The flywheel will need to be rather massive,  and will spin quite fast,  so that its angular momentum magnitude equals the angular momentum magnitude of the docked cryo tank and vessel.

Adding a “Go-To-The-Job” Capability Is Unattractive

If you want this depot facility to take on the role of scavenging abandoned spent stages for their propellants,  before de-orbiting them,  then you need to add very considerable extra propulsive capability to the depot station.  It would have to go and rendezvous with every target spent stage. 

You do that with very much larger fuel tanks for the electric propulsion and for the storable-powered thruster,  both located in the power and propulsion module.  That option is also shown in Figure 5,  as extra tanks to be added surrounding the power and propulsion module.  The orbital changes to do this are made unmanned,  controlled from the ground.  You send up crews temporarily,  only when propellant transfers are to be made.

Otherwise,  there is just no need for a facility propulsive capacity that large!  That is why the option takes the form of added tanks.  Everything else is the same.  Although,  choosing instead to create a specialized vehicle to operate as a “space tug” to go get the spent stage,  and transport it to the facility,  is probably the better concept,  and by far.  Such a space tug is just not that massive,  while this propellant depot facility is simply enormous.

Thrust Sizing

But in any event,  the thrust-induced accelerations need to be quite low,  in order to avoid large bending loads in the cryogen tank attachments.  Accelerations on the order of 0.01 gee or less should be fine,  with the storable thruster.  It is quite likely the electric propulsion would provide accelerations more in the ballpark of 0.0001 gee.  While very low indeed,  that’s all right:  the electric propulsion would only be used while unmanned,  to make significant orbital changes that are not time critical.  More time-critical adjustments (such as debris avoidance),  would use the storable-propellant thruster.

References

#1. “Propellant Ullage Problem and Solutions”,  Gary W. Johnson,  posted 18 August 2021 to http://exrocketman.blogspot.com. 

#2. “A Detailed Historical Review of Propellant Management Devices for Low Gravity Propellant Acquisition”,  Jason W. Hartwig,  NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, OH, 44135, USA; undated AIAA paper but ca. 2015;  (pretty much the same information was also in the Hartwig Ph.D. dissertation).

For articles posted on the “exrocketman” site,  use the navigation utility left side of page.  Click on the year,  then on the month,  then if need be on the title.  


Thursday, January 27, 2022

The Vaccinations Really Do Work!

These plots are data recently published in the New York Times,  complete with attributions to sources.  They are real data,  and they make liars out of those who claim the vaccinations do no good!  Look for yourself. 

Case rate data are in Figure 1.  Hospitalization rate data are in Figure 2.  Death rate data are in Figure 3.  These are recent enough that the Omicron variant dominates,  but the Delta variant is still out there. 

The attribution for Figure 1 is:  “Data is age adjusted. Recent data may be incomplete.  Sources: New York City Department of Health, Washington Department of Health”

The attribution for Figure 2 is:  “Data is age adjusted. Recent data may be incomplete. Sources: New York City Department of Health, Washington Department of Health”

The attribution for Figure 3 is:  “Data is age adjusted. Recent data may be incomplete. Sources: New York City Department of Health, Washington Department of Health”

So,  dear readers,  if your sources have been lying to you about the effectiveness of the vaccines and boosters,  then what else have they been lying about to you? 

Makes you wonder. 


Figure 1 – Case Rate Data


Figure 2 – Hospitalization Rate Data


Figure 3 – Death Rate Data



Thursday, January 20, 2022

A Question For Readers

Here is a question for my readers who are particularly interested in the space travel stuff that I do.  Would you be interested in participating with others of like mind,  working on these kinds of ideas?  If so,  you might visit,  or even join,  the community that is on the New Mars forums,  part of the Mars Society’s efforts. 

That link is http://newmars.com/forums/

I am a frequent contributor there,  and we on those forums are looking for more folks interested in trying to contribute toward any possible viable ideas.  Give it a try.  Let me know here what you think,  if you go visit there.  Please use the comment option here.  I only remove obvious spam. 

GW 

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Pertinent Funny

This one speaks for itself,  but is pertinent to so many things I see going on.  Enjoy.  My wife found this for me somewhere on her Facebook.  



Sunday, January 2, 2022

Refining Proposed Suit and Habitat Atmospheres

Update 10-25-2022:  a version of this article and "Habitat Atmospheres and Long-Term Health" (dated 1 Jan 2022),  combined into one paper,  was presented as a paper at the 2022 Mars Society convention at ASU in Tempe,  AZ.  It was well-received.  

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I came up with the design analysis of suit and habitat atmospheres posted in Ref. 1,  and then developed a simplified and organized spreadsheet model,  to implement that design analysis procedure,  all in one convenient place.  This model uses a long-term hypoxia criterion developed from data in Ref. 2 for the habitat,  and two short-term hypoxia criteria for the minimum-pressure suit,  from pilot oxygen mask requirements.  I developed a fire danger criterion for the habitat out of oxygen concentration,  per its use in Arrhenius-type reaction-rate models. The “no pre-breathe” criterion is NASA’s,  via the USN.

The fully-compliant habitat and min-pressure suit atmosphere values of Ref. 1 are now the default case in the spreadsheet model.  This was reported in the Addendum to Ref. 1.  I have since done two further analyses,  denoted “work case 1” and “work case 2”,  as their own worksheets in the spreadsheet.

The default case at 0.45 atm and 45% oxygen (by volume) in the habitat,  produced a recommendation well in excess of the long-term hypoxia criterion,  even leaked down to 0.40 atm (some 11.111% lower). It was compliant with the fire danger criterion,  and produced a 3.031 psia pure-oxygen suit proposal that is compliant with the fully-cognitive short-term hypoxia criterion,  even if leaked down by 10% on pressure.  This is the lowest suit pressure that meets no pre-breathe.  Anything higher also requires no pre-breathe.  This is a very good combination,  but I wanted to see if I could do even better.

For “work case 1”,  I reduced the design (max) habitat pressure to 0.40 atm,  and increased the oxygen to 50%,  with a 10% pressure leak-down specified for both suit and habitat.  This still meets the long-term hypoxia criterion for the habitat,  even leaked down,  and it still meets the fire danger criterion,  by a very slightly better margin.  But it produced a min pressure suit option that failed to meet the fully-cognitive short term hypoxia criterion entirely,  and also failed to meet the bare survival hypoxia criterion when leaked down. 

I had to separately raise that suit pressure back up to 3.013 psia pure oxygen,  before it met the fully-cognitive short-term hypoxia criterion,  even leaked down.  This suit also needs no pre-breathe.  Paired with the upgraded min suit pressure,  this is also a good combination,  although it wastes some of the pre-breathe margin.  I added a separate suit upgrade calculation off to the right,  in this worksheet.

So then I ran “work case 2”.  I started getting acceptable suit pressures at about 0.43 atm habitat pressure,  and I fully met the habitat long-term hypoxia and fire danger criteria,  at just about 43.5% oxygen.  I had to hunt around a bit on both habitat pressure and oxygen percentage,  before settling on these values.  They resulted in a min suit pressure that was just a bit lower than the default case or “work case 1” at 2.975 psia,  but it still met the short-term fully-cognitive hypoxia criterion,  even when leaked down 10%.  This is the best combination I have yet found.  The separate suit upgrade calculation is also in this worksheet,  but was not needed.

The default case is Fig. 1,  which is also Fig. 9 in Ref. 1,  “work case 1” is Fig. 2,  and this best-version-yet “work case 2” is Fig. 3.  The previously most recent posting (prior to Ref. 1) about this subject is Ref. 3.

Spreadsheet Availability and Function

If you want a copy of the spreadsheet file,  please contact me by email.  As it says in the user instructions on the worksheets I created,  I recommend that you keep these example cases unchanged as templates.  Copy one of them to a fresh worksheet and do your design analysis there. 

If you copy “work case 1” or “work case 2”,  you get the suit pressure rework calculations as well,  off to the right of the main design analysis.  That is only necessary if your min suit pressure falls in a range that violates the short-term hypoxia criteria.  I did not put the revised suit calculation block on the “default case” worksheet.

If you instead want to create your own calculations,  just remember this critical point:  to get wet in-lung oxygenation,  you must first subtract-off the water vapor partial pressure to get the total partial pressure of the breathing gas inside the wet lungs.  Only after that is done do you get to apply the breathing gas volume percentages to that total partial pressure of breathing gas in the lungs. 

My calculations start with a proposed habitat atmosphere at some dry total pressure,  with a volume percentage of oxygen in it,  and also the assumption that it is a two-gas mix of just oxygen and nitrogen.  That produces the dry breathing gas partial pressures of oxygen and nitrogen. 

I reduce that total pressure by the vapor pressure of water at human body temperature to find the partial pressures of the breathing gas in the wet lungs,  and apply the volume percentages to that reduced value,  to get the partial pressures of oxygen and nitrogen in the wet lungs.  The partial pressure of oxygen in the wet lungs compares to the long-term hypoxia criterion of min 0.14 atm.

I do a molecular weight calculation to determine the mass fraction of oxygen in the mix,  which multiplies the dry breathing gas density to produce the oxygen concentration as mass per unit volume,  for comparison to the fire danger criterion of max 0.275 kg/m3,  for warm dry sea level air at 77 F = 25 C.

The partial pressure of nitrogen in the dry habitat atmosphere gets divided by the NASA/USN “no pre-breathe” factor of 1.2,  to produce the minimum pure oxygen suit pressure you can use,  and still avoid a pre-breathe time requirement.  This gets the vapor pressure of water subtracted to find the wet in-lung partial pressure of oxygen.  That gets compared to the short-term hypoxia factors:  min 0.12 atm for full cognitive capability,  and min 0.10 atm for bare survival.  (Somewhere under about 0.08 atm is the “certain death-by-hypoxia” point,  although such exposure does take significant time to injure or kill.)

It is entirely acceptable to find a habitat atmosphere at somewhat lower pressure and slightly higher oxygen than my best recommendation (“work case 2”),  that meets long-term hypoxia and fire danger criteria,  yet the resulting minimum pure oxygen suit pressure fails to meet the short-term hypoxia criteria (that is exactly that happened in my “work case 1”). 

That minimum suit pressure is just a lower bound on what you can design your suits to have.  You can always design your suits to a higher pressure than this lower bound,  to meet the hypoxia criteria.  They will always then satisfy the “no pre-breathe” criterion.  That is exactly what I did in “work case 1”,  and it is precisely why I added the suit pressure redesign block out to the right of the main calculation block.

References

#1. G. W. Johnson,  “Habitat Atmospheres and Long-Term Health”,  posted 1-1-2022 to http://exrocketman.blogspot.com

#2. Martin Enserink,  “Hypoxia City”,  a science news article published in the journal magazine “Science”,  volume 365,  Issue 6458,  dated 13 September 2019,  as published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).   

#3. G. W. Johnson,  “Suit and Habitat Atmospheres 2018”,  posted 16 March 2018 to http://exrocketman.blogspot.com 


Figure 1 – Default Case is Best Case From Ref. 1 (0.45 atm at 45% O2)


Figure 2 – This Is the “Work Case 1” Worksheet,  Now In the Spreadsheet File (0.40 atm at 50% O2)


Figure 3 – This Is the “Work Case 2” Worksheet,  In the Spreadsheet,  and The Best Yet (0.43 atm 43.5%)


Addendum:  “Rule of 43” for Habitat and Suit Atmospheres

Here’s a design combination that is really easy to remember,  and yet gets just about as good an answer as the fully optimized form.  The optimum case had a habitat atmosphere that was 43.5% oxygen at 0.43 atm pressure.  It produced a minimum oxygen suit pressure of 2.975 psia.  The habitat satisfied the fire danger criterion,  and the long-term hypoxia criterion,  even leaked down 10%.  The suit met the no pre-breathe time requirement,  and the fully-cognitive short-term hypoxia criterion,  even when leaked down 10%.  It would be more easy-to-wear as a gas balloon design than current NASA suits,  by far!  It would be even more feasible and easy-to-build as an MCP suit than what Dr. Webb did in the 1960’s. 

The “rule of 43” case gets very similar results,  but is far easier to remember.  It uses a habitat atmosphere that is 43% oxygen at 0.43 atm pressure (both “43”).  It meets the fire danger criterion,  and meets the long-term hypoxia criterion if leaked down no more than 9.5% (it just barely fails at 10%).  The min suit pressure for no pre-breathe time comes out just a tad higher at 3.002 psia pure oxygen,  and meets the short-term fully-cognitive hypoxia criterion at 10% leaked-down.  Like the optimum case,  this would be far easier to wear as a as balloon suit,  and far easier to build as an MCP suit.

Figure 4 is the “rule of 43” combination,  and Figure 3 above is the optimum combination that I found earlier.  These were done with the spreadsheet tool I developed,  and in just a matter of less than an hour,  iterating through several possibilities where the atm of pressure and the oxygen percentage were the same numbers.

Figure 4 --  “Rule-Of-43” Design Case At 0.43 Atm Pressure And 43% Oxygen

These two cases are so close,  that I see very little difference between them.  If the objective of “something easy to remember” is as important as I have been told it is,  then this “rule of 43” design is the one you really want.  Its no pre-breathe min suit pressure is very slightly higher,  and its habitat pressure leak-down percentage isn’t quite the full 10%,  but that doesn’t really matter.  Both are in the very same ballpark,  with the differences out in the decimal places. 

The main point here is to get into that ballpark,  so as to reduce the min suit pressure for no pre-breathe way below NASA practice,  so that easier-to-wear gas balloon suits become feasible,  and that even easier-to-build MCP suits become possible.  These suit pressures are quite adequate,  but are far below what NASA and its favored contractors have been using (3 psia vs over-4.2 psia). 

You find out how adequate these lower suit pressures really are,  once you generalize the health and oxygen mask altitude criteria to wet in-lung oxygen partial pressures.  You need that generalization of those criteria,  in order to extend them correctly to lower pressures and higher oxygen percentages,  than those of Earthly air.  You also need a fire danger criterion cast in the mass/volume chemical concentration format.  And,  you need suit short-term hypoxia criteria based on Earthly use of oxygen masks for pilots at high altitudes.

Utter-Minimum Suit Pure Oxygen Pressures

I used the “work case 2” suit upgrade calculation block to investigate just how low a suit pressure was safe,  using the short-term hypoxia criteria.  Remember,  a wet in-lung oxygen partial pressure of 0.12 atm supports a fully-cognitive wearer.  0.10 atm supports survival without full cognition:  the wearer may well be somewhat nonfunctional mentally. 

Figure 5 is what I get if I require the fully-cognitive hypoxia criterion to the suit in the 10% leaked-down state.   Figure 6 is what I get if I only require the fully-cognitive hypoxia criterion to the design pressure;  leaked down 10%,  it fails fully cognitive,  but still satisfies bare survival.  The lesson here is that suit pressures as low as 2.675 psia will be quite adequate for fully-cognitive wearers.  2.407 psia will save life,  even if the wearer is mentally not fully functional.

Figure 5 – Min Suit For Fully-Cognitive When Leaked-Down 10%

Figure 6 – Min Suit For Fully-Cognitive Only At Design Pressure


A word of caution:  these utter-minimum pressure suit designs cannot be used indiscriminately with the two long-term habitat atmospheres identified so far (0.43 atm and 43.5% O2,  and the “rule of 43” design with 0.43 atm and 43% O2).  The utter-minimum pressure designs violate the min suit pressure specs for no pre-breathe time,  because the ratio of habitat nitrogen partial pressure to suit design pressure exceeds the 1.200 criterion. 

I include these utter-minimum suit design specs here,  to show what is actually feasible for adequate life support and mental functionality in pure oxygen suit designs,  when those designs are independent of a habitat pressure that must meet a long-term hypoxia criterion (for the safety of pregnant women and unborn/newborn children). 


Saturday, January 1, 2022

Habitat Atmospheres and Long-Term Health

Update 1-11-2022:  revised Figures 1 and 2 to show correspondence of curve fit and criterion.

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I had originally intended to do this as an update to an existing article (Ref. 1),  but since have changed my mind.  This is different enough to warrant being its own article. 

The data and recommendations in Ref. 1 are based on experiences for relatively short-term exposures,  a few days or weeks similar to Apollo and Skylab for habitat atmospheres,  and a few hours for low-pressure pure oxygen in space suits.  Those results are based on the wet in-lung inhaled oxygen partial pressure in the lung gases,  set by concentrations available to pilots flying aircraft,  and there’s nothing wrong with that approach for space suits!  But as it says in the article,  for very long-term exposures,  and especially for pregnancy and childbirth,  other constraints unknown to me then,  may apply. 

That is why in Ref. 1,  I recommended a general habitat atmosphere compatible with no pre-breathe time getting into an oxygen suit,  and also compatible with no greater fire danger than in warm sea level Earthly air.  But at the same time,  pregnant women and young children were limited to a portion of the habitat that had another atmosphere more similar in oxygen content to Earthly air,  at a higher pressure.

I have recently run across some very pertinent information regarding long term exposure risks,  and pregnancy and childbirth risks,  for life at high altitudes in Earthly air.  These would have a direct bearing on the atmospheric composition and pressure in any ship,  space habitat,  or any habitat upon some other celestial body.  I found this in an older issue of AAAS’s journal “Science” (Ref. 2).  It deals with health investigations made in the Andes,  up to altitudes of 5100 meters (16,700 feet).

What I do here is combine the Ref. 2 health vs altitude data with my wet,  in-lung oxygen partial pressure calculation approach from Ref. 1,  using a standard atmosphere table to relate altitude to total atmospheric pressure. The fire danger is based on the oxygen concentration,  expressed as mass per unit volume,  just as it was in Ref. 1.

Health vs Altitude Information From Ref. 2

The information in this reference is given in terms of altitude above sea level,  as it relates to hypoxia effects upon humans living at high altitudes on Earth.  Fundamentally,  oxygen diffusion across the lung tissues from the in-lung gases to the blood is driven by differences in oxygen partial pressures between the lung gases and the blood.  That is why I converted the relevant altitudes to oxygen partial pressures,  but only after letting water vapor displace some air inside the wet lungs (at human body temperature). 

There is also a carbon dioxide displacement effect,  from the carbon dioxide diffusing out of the blood into the lung spaces to be exhaled(see update 2-2-22 just below).  However,  this effect is far smaller than the water vapor displacement effect,  by at least an order of magnitude!  Thus it is safely ignorable for design purposes.  In contrast,  the water vapor displacement effect is significant at any pressure,  but very much more so at reduced breathing gas pressures,  precisely because the vapor pressure of the water depends on body temperature,  and just does not reduce with reducing total pressure.  It is simply a bigger fraction at lower total atmospheric pressures.

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Update 2-2-22:  Carbon dioxide displacement turns out not to be as negligible as I originally thought,  down in the dead-end blind spaces of the lung alveoli.  Further research turned up something called the alveolar equation,  which estimates the average oxygen partial pressure in the alveoli,  over the entire inhale-exhale cycle, allowing for water displacement,  carbon dioxide displacement,  oxygen diffusion into the blood,  and the dead-end space mixing effect.

As it turns out,  carbon dioxide partial pressure is held essentially constant by the body up to about 2500 m elevation,  prioritized over oxygen partial pressure.  Above that elevation,  the body re-prioritizes maximizing oxygen partial pressure over controlling carbon dioxide pressure.  This leads to hyperventilation and respiratory alkalosis,  increasing severe with increasing altitude above the critical 2500 m.

Most who use the alveolar equation to size habitat and suit pressures use the “typical” carbon dioxide pressure from below 2500 m as a constant,  when above 2500 m it is most certainly not!  Not even close at severe conditions!  This leads to larger design values for habitat and suit pressures than are necessary.  Unfortunately,  my researches also yielded no accepted model for how carbon dioxide pressure varies in the alveoli for elevations above 2500 m,  which would be reflected in the total dry gas mixture breathing pressure.   

The inhaled wet in-lung oxygen concentrations that I use are actually a part of the alveolar equation!  They are thus quite accurate for what they really are.  Since my hypoxia criteria are based on that definition,  and not actual conditions deep in the alveoli,  then my calculation procedure described here is also valid.  It is certainly more “accurate” than using the alveolar equation at conditions above 2500 m,  because of the inherent uncertainty in the “correct” value of carbon dioxide pressure to use. 

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The “Science” article uses chronic mountain sickness (CMS) as the indicator for the relevant hypoxia effects.  The common external symptoms are dizziness,  headaches,  ringing ears,  sleep problems,  breathlessness,  palpitations,  fatigue,  and (particularly) cyanosis.  That cyanosis turns lips,  gums,  and hands a purplish blue,  easily observed by the most casual observer. 

Examined closer medically,  the hallmark of CMS was long thought to be a great proliferation of red blood cells,  to the point of making the blood more viscous.  This increase in viscosity raises the blood pressure,  especially in the arteries leading from the heart to the lungs.  It can also lead to enlargement of the left ventricle of the heart,  and thickening of its walls,  eventually causing heart failure.  

For short-term exposures (measured in days or less),  the treatment for hypoxia effects is supplemental oxygen,  followed quickly by a return to lower altitudes.  For long-term exposures (measured in months or years),  the only treatment is relocation to low altitude,  but some of the damage may be permanent!  According to the Ref. 2 article,  it has been known since the Spanish first tried to colonize the Andes in the 16th century,  that the risks for eclampsia in pregnant women are elevated at high altitudes.  For the unborn and newborn at those same high altitudes,  the elevated risks are for low birth weight,  and for premature birth.  This problem of long term hypoxic exposure is really quite serious!

All that stuff has been known for a while,  but Ref. 2 also reveals some more recent information:  the increase in blood viscosity that precipitates CMS does not correlate with only the proliferation of red blood cells!  Everybody suffering hypoxia while living at high altitudes has more than the normal red cell count.  However,  only some of them show the CMS symptoms.  Exactly why this is true is not fully understood yet,  but there does seem to be some genetic components to it.  People living at high altitudes in the Himalayas,  the Andes,  and the mountains of Ethiopia all show different responses.

The Ref. 2 science news article indicates there are no CMS cases below 2500 meter altitudes,  which is 8200 feet.  8000 feet cabin altitude is now quite common in airliners,  when only a few years ago 10,000 feet was more common.  One thing to investigate would be the equivalent altitude for no CMS from the CMS case percentages versus altitude.  It should correlate to the 8200 feet criterion rather closely.

In South America (the focus of the Ref. 2 article),  a closer reading generates these data:  In La Paz,  the capital of Bolivia,  at 3600 meters = 11,800 feet,  some 6 to 8% of the large local population shows symptoms of CMS.  In the central Andean town of Cerro de Pasco,  at 4300 meters = 14,100 feet,  about 15% of those aged 30-39 showed CMS,  while some 33% of those aged 50-59 showed CMS.  (I simply misused those percentages as the upper and lower bounds for that population at that elevation.)  The article focused on the mining town of La Rinconada,  at 5100 meters = 16,700 feet!  This is a town of 50,000 to 70,000 people,  living and working under utterly deplorable conditions.  They show at least 25% with CMS,  and it may be a lot higher.  I arbitrarily used 50% as an upper bound.  It could be higher.

Figure 1 shows a plot of lower and upper bound percentages of CMS as a function of wet in-lung partial pressure of oxygen.  The “average” seems to strike the zero CMS level at about 0.13 atm for this population.  Per Figure 2,  this occurs at about 9000 feet.  Note that below 8200 feet (2500 m) the expected CMS rate is zero,  and the wet in-lung oxygen partial pressure is 0.14 atm (or higher).  The correspondence between these altitude criteria is very close indeed!  We can probably reliably use 0.14 atm wet in-lung oxygen partial pressure as a hypoxia criterion,  for either CMS or reproductive effects.

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Update 2-2-22:  Note also that the 2500 m elevation for onset of CMS corresponds exactly to the elevation at which the body deprioritizes carbon dioxide pressure in favor of maximizing oxygen pressure in the blood,  per the supporting science behind the alveolar equation.  This is the biological mechanism that also supports using the inhaled oxygen partial pressure (with water vapor displacement) as both the measure,  and the criterion (that being the 0.14 atm partial pressure).

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Figure 1 --  Occurrence of CMS vs Wet In-Lung Partial Pressure of Oxygen (Andes) UPDATED

Figure 2 – Wet In-Lung Partial Pressure of Oxygen vs Altitude UPDATED

For purposes of this article,  let us use 0.14 atm wet in-lung partial pressure of oxygen as the long-term limitation on a single habitat atmosphere composition and pressure for all residents,  including pregnant women and the unborn/newborn.  We will see what suit pressures and fire dangers result from this.  It pays to be conservative,  because of the long-term risks.

Habitat Atmosphere

To do this in the most straightforward way,  I made total habitat breathing gas pressure (in atmospheres) and habitat oxygen content (percent by volume) inputs.  This is for a two-gas mix of oxygen and nitrogen.  From these data,  using 0.06193 atm as the vapor pressure of water at human body temperature,  I computed partial pressures of oxygen and nitrogen in the dry breathing gas,  the displaced partial pressure of breathing gas in the (wet) lungs,  and the wet in-lung partial pressure of oxygen.  That procedure is intended to address the long-term hypoxia exposure issue,  for which we just determined the safe wet in-lung oxygen partial pressure needs to equal or exceed 0.14 atm. 

Running numbers to see trends,  I started at standard day sea level conditions,  with a two-gas “synthetic air” at 20.946 volume % oxygen.  I corrected air density at 1 atm to 77 F living temperature (which is where the 0.275 kg/m3 concentration came from).  Then I reduced the total synthetic air pressure by 0.1 atm increments down to 0.4 atm,  for a wet in-lung oxygen partial pressure about half the min value needed.  Then I raised the oxygen percentage to 40%,  getting very nearly the desired wet in-lung partial pressure desired.  0.4 atm at 40% oxygen is not quite adequate long term.

From that 0.4 atm - 40% oxygen point,  I then looked at 0.45 atm – 40% oxygen,  0.45 atm – 45% oxygen,  and 0.40 atm – 45% oxygen,  in order to “bound the problem”.  Note that this bounded problem is not unique:  one could use lower pressure and higher oxygen percentage,  and still meet the wet in-lung criterion.  Such choices might trip the fire danger limit,  though.

Fire Danger

I computed the molecular weight of the synthetic air as the sum of the volume percents of the gases times their molecular weights,  and then from this and the input volume percent oxygen,  the mass percent oxygen (as MWO2 * vol%O2 / MWsyn.air).  I used the habitat pressure and temperature to correct the sea level standard density of air in kg/m3,  and then multiplied that by the mass percent oxygen,  to compute the oxygen concentration in kg/m3.  That looks at the fire danger issue,  for which the oxygen concentration should be under the warm sea level air criterion of 0.275 kg/m3.

Min Suit Pressure

From the partial pressure of nitrogen in the habitat atmosphere,  reducing that by a factor of 1.2 is the “no pre-breathe” criterion for minimum pure-oxygen suit pressure.  At the higher habitat pressures nearer 1 atm with real synthetic air,  this produces ridiculously-large min suit pressures!  But as the habitat total pressure dropped near 0.4 atm,  and the oxygen percentage increased (driving down nitrogen even further),  the min suit pressures became quite attractive.  Higher suit pressures are compatible with no pre-breathe time,  but not suit pressures lower than this computed minimum.  I also computed wet in-lung oxygen partial pressure for that min suit pressure,  and for 10% leaked-down.

Results

I chose as the design value 0.45 atm total habitat pressure (which is 6.6132 psia) at 45% oxygen by volume (which is 2.9759 psia partial pressure of oxygen and 3.6373 psia partial pressure of nitrogen).  That is very similar to,  but not exactly the same,  as the habitat mix of Ref. 1.  This selection resulted in a wet in-lung oxygen partial pressure of 0.1746 atm,  which far exceeds the adopted 0.14 atm long-term exposure criterion.  Even with a leak-down to 0.40 atm,  the wet in-lung oxygen is still 0.1521 atm,  which significantly exceeds the criterion.  As long as long-term hypoxia is avoided this way,  there should be no troubles with CMS,  or with pregnancy and birth beyond the “normal occurrence” rates.

The computed oxygen concentration at 0.45 atm – 45% oxygen is 0.257 kg/m3,  which is under the 0.275 fire danger criterion.  Leaked down to 0.40 atm – 45% oxygen,  it is only 0.228 kg/m3.  The fire danger is similar to,  but very slightly less than,  that of sea level warm Earthly air. 

The minimum pure oxygen suit pressure for the 0.45 atm – 45% oxygen design point is quite attractive at 3.031 psia (157 mmHg),  although that is slightly higher than the suits explored in Ref. 1,  which met short-term hypoxia exposure criteria.  Any suit pressure at or above this value meets the no pre-breathe criterion for the selected design habitat atmosphere.  This is well below current NASA suit pressures,  and is still quite similar to the lowest altitude-equivalent suit recommended in Ref. 1 (2.945 psia = 152 mmHg).  That suit had a wet in-lung partial pressure of oxygen of 0.1385 atm,  almost meeting the long-term hypoxia criterion adopted here. 

In the event of suit leak-down,  there is still sufficient wet in-lung oxygen partial pressure to avoid short-term hypoxia effects,  as already explored in Ref. 1.  There is no pre-breathe or decompression time needed to go from an oxygen suit back to the habitat atmosphere,  even if leaked down 10%.   

See the data table in Figure 3,  for all the habitat atmosphere numbers run for this study. 

Figure 3 – Spreadsheet Image of Numbers Run for this Study

Recommended Suit Design Criteria to Match

The minimum-pressure altitude-equivalent suit design,  per the methods of Ref. 1,  is 7.72 kft (2350 m) altitude,  for which the pure oxygen suit pressure is 0.20625 atm = 3.031 psia = 157 mmHg.  The resulting wet in-lung oxygen partial pressure actually meets the long-term hypoxia criterion at 0.144 atm vs the 0.140 criterion.  If leaked down 10%,  the suit pressure is still 0.1856 atm = 2.728 psia = 141 mmHg.  That wet in-lung partial pressure of oxygen is 0.1237 atm,  which corresponds to Earthly air at 11.36 kft (3460 m).  This is still quite safe for short exposures,  as explored in Ref. 1.  See Figure 4.  

Figure 4 – Min Suit Pressure Data for No Pre-Breathe Time

Conclusions (see also Fig. 5,  6,  and 7):

#1. Use a long term habitat (or ship) atmosphere of 0.45 atm (6.61 psia) at 45% oxygen by volume,  in a simple two-gas composition with nitrogen.  This atmosphere is safe from a fire danger standpoint,  and more-than-meets the wet in-lung oxygen partial pressure criterion to avoid long term hypoxia effects,  like CMS.  Presumably,  this also avoids aggravating complications of pregnancy and childbirth beyond the normal occurrence rates.  It is still safe,  even if leaked-down to 0.40 atm at that same 45% oxygen.

#2. The minimum pure-oxygen suit pressure that does not incur a requirement for pre-breathe time with this habitat atmosphere,  is only 0.20625 atm = 3.031 psia.  This is a 7.72 kft altitude-equivalent design,  and is no worse than 11.36 kft equivalent when leaked-down 10%.  Any pure-oxygen suit design with that pressure or higher,  is free of the pre-breathe time requirement,  and meets the long-term hypoxia criterion.  It does not meet that criterion if leaked-down 10%,  although such exposures should be quite short,  thus doing no permanent harm.  

Figure 5 – Summary of Conclusions

Figure 6 – How the Habitat Atmosphere Fares Versus the Long-Term Hypoxia Criterion

Figure 7 – How the Min Suit Fares Versus the Short-Term Hypoxia Criteria

Post Scriptum

Where the short-term hypoxia criteria came from is more of a judgement call.  It is based on varying military and civilian oxygen mask requitements for pilots,  and on some high-altitude human populations.  Pilots require full cognitive abilities.  Somewhere between where the USAF and the FAA require supplemental oxygen regardless of circumstances,  is that criterion.  For our purposes,  that is around 0.12 atm wet in-lung partial pressure of oxygen,  and it also matches what obtains at the highest altitude for which a vented pure oxygen mask is effective for more than a single handful of minutes. 

For bare survival with cognitive impairment after several minutes to an hour or so,  the rare max cabin altitude of 15,000 feet will serve well enough.  That is about 0.10 atm wet in-lung partial pressure of oxygen.  You could go to 20,000 feet equivalent at 0.08 atm wet in-lung partial pressure of oxygen and still survive,  but most lowlanders will be unconscious at this condition.  There are some acclimatized and genetically-adapted herders in the Andes who spend parts of their days up there,  but even they return to lower altitudes at night.

This is shown in Figure 8,  along with the so-called Armstrong limit,  where the water vapor in the lungs displaces all of the air or oxygen you are trying to breathe.  That is the so-called “vacuum death point”.  Actually,  the real hypoxia death point is lower,  somewhere in the 50-60,000 foot range.  Some jet pilots have reached 50,000 feet with only an oxygen mask,  but they were only there for mere seconds.

Figure 8 – Data From Which the Short-Term Hypoxia Criteria Were Obtained

References

#1. G. W. Johnson,  “Suit and Habitat Atmospheres 2018”,  posted 16 March 2018 to http://exrocketman.blogspot.com

#2. Martin Enserink,  “Hypoxia City”,  a science news article published in the journal magazine “Science”,  volume 365,  Issue 6458,  dated 13 September 2019,  as published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).    

Addendum:

Since completing the write-up of these design sizing analyses,  I have created a well-organized spreadsheet that does these calculations quickly,  all in one place.  This allows iterative fine-tuning of the pressure and oxygen percentage selections for the habitat atmosphere,  while concurrently monitoring the long-term hypoxia criterion,  the fire danger criterion,  and the adequacy of the min suit pressure value in terms of short-term hypoxia criteria. 

One should note that the main difference between this min suit pressure sizing procedure,  and that used in Ref. 1,  is that the suit is determined directly from the nitrogen partial pressure in the habitat atmosphere.  At mixture,  the max value of habitat pressure produces the max value of nitrogen partial pressure,  and that determines the max value of minimum suit pressure required for no pre-breathe requirement. The Ref. 1 method used an independent altitude-equivalent way of setting suit pressure,  which in turn added another level of iteration to the habitat atmosphere design process.

Also slightly different from Ref. 1,  I have added a leak-down option for the habitat pressure.  For a short transient,  it is OK to violate the long-term hypoxia criterion in the leaked-down state.  But,  if you set the habitat design (max) pressure and leak-down percentage such that the long-term hypoxia criterion is satisfied,  even in the leaked-down state,  then you have relieved yourself of the need for fine pressure control.  You then have a range of long-term acceptable pressures,  all at the same oxygen-nitrogen mixture.

Figure 9 shows an image of the new spreadsheet design analysis tool.  User inputs are highlighted yellow.  There are only 4 of them:  habitat pressure,  habitat oxygen percentage by volume,  the percent habitat pressure leak-down,  and the percent suit pressure leak-down.  All the rest is automatic.   Significant items or outputs are highlighted blue or green.  The user instructions are on the worksheet.  Contact me by email if you want a copy.

It is recommended that the default design analysis worksheet be maintained as-is.  Simply copy and paste it into a fresh worksheet to do your own design analysis.  That way,  if you screw up a cell formula,  you have the original available to restore it.  The default input data correspond to this article’s design analysis.  The odd-looking habitat leak-down percentage is that which produces exactly the leaked-down habitat pressure used in that analysis.

Figure 9 – Image of Spreadsheet Design Analysis For Habitat and Suit Atmospheres