Showing posts with label bad manners. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bad manners. Show all posts

Friday, June 28, 2024

Thoughts on the Presidential Debate

On the format of the debate –

I thought having microphones off except during the allotted time to speak was the right thing to do!  That got rid of the constant interruptions seen in the last ones.  The missing element was fact-checking,  which should have been happening essentially real-time!  This is actually the bigger risk to democracy,  as it is impossible for anyone to make good decisions,  based on bad information.

Evaluation of the fitness of the candidates –

I saw a person with both physical and cognitive difficulties in 81-year-old Joe Biden,  as did all who watched the debate.  But,  I also saw cognitive difficulties in 77-year-old Donald Trump,  which many seemed to have missed as they watched,  simply because they were not as glaringly apparent.  I saw fewer physical difficulties with Trump,  but at his weight and with his bad lifestyle preferences,  I foresee failing physical health coming very soon,  likely a heart attack,  stroke,  or diabetes.

The risk of cognitive problems in the job of President is obvious,  and need not be further pursued here. 

The risk of physical health difficulties is not so obvious,  although this has already come up in prior Presidencies over the last 2 centuries.  The main risk lies in the suitability and readiness of the Vice President to take over the duties of President.  This is compounded by the nature of the job,  which at least from Franklin Roosevelt forward,  visibly ages all who serve.

Observed cognitive deficits –

With Joe Biden,  it was obvious,  and compounded by evident physical frailty.  He completely lost his train of thought while answering one question,  and never recovered it,  an event ended by the timing-out of his time to speak.  I saw 3 or 4 other such stumbles,  losing his train of thought in the middle of speaking,  but he was able to recover it,  and continue speaking.  These were noted as “rambling answers” by other observers.  I know what they really were,  I have seen such before!

With Donald Trump,  it was not quite so obvious,  but it was there for all to see:  he never actually answered any of the questions put to him!  Instead,  he invariably jumped repeatedly into the same debunked lies he tells at his political campaign rallies.  I actually saw him stumble and repeat himself,  while telling these well-practiced lies,  about 3 or 4 times.  The exaggerated nature of the lies themselves were alarming enough,  but not actually answering any of the questions is even more alarming,  as it indicates rather low cognition of the unexpected!  That is very dangerous to the country,  in the job of President!

Truthfulness –

Biden wins hands-down in this category!  Virtually everything Donald Trump said was an exaggerated,  egregious,  and long-debunked political lie!  While the conventional wisdom says politicians lie anytime their lips are moving,  there is actually a wide spectrum of how serious the deception is,  and thus how dangerous it is.  With Trump,  the deception is extreme,  and therefore extremely dangerous.  With Biden,  it is not.

Vice Presidential choices –

With Joe Biden,  there is Kamala Harris,  who is still young enough physically and mentally to serve well.  She is knowledgeable about what is going on,  and could step in and come up to speed almost immediately,  something very important in a time of war,  or impending war.  She,  like Biden,  does not pose a threat of extremely deceptive lies. 

With Donald Trump,  we do not yet know who his Vice Presidential pick will be.  Those purported to be on his “short list” are all “Trump wannabees”,  spouting the same extreme,  dangerous,  and long-debunked lies that Trump does.  I do not see a choice here that is not just as dangerous a threat to democracy as Trump is,  with those lies. 

Legal issues –

Trump has these “in spades”.  Biden does not,  despite years of trying by the “Trump wannabees” in Congress.  Depending upon future jury verdicts,  they could preclude Trump actually serving effectively,  independent of any health risks.  Further,  the President is supposed to be a role model.  The felony conviction,  with more looming,  precludes that role for Donald Trump.

Conclusions –

Neither of these men is actually mentally fit to serve another term as president,  especially in a time of regional wars that threatens general war.  And both men present risks of failing physical health,  simply due to advanced age.  The 25th Amendment and the line of succession is supposed to take care of that risk,  although it perhaps cannot be done quickly enough in an emergency,  unless the President actually quickly dies.

The second scheduled debate (in August,  I think it is) [actually,  September 10th] absolutely must have real-time fact-checking in its format,  and continue the dead mike practice!  Such fact-checking is utterly essential to identify good information for the voters to make informed decisions.  Lies of the type Trump repeatedly tells,  are very dangerous to our democracy.  They cause insurrections,  as we have already seen.

Neither party has any business running candidates for President as flawed as these two men.  Polls say about 70% of Americans agree with me on that.  But since they are the apparent candidates,  physical and mental health risks are not the worst issue here,  telling the truth is,  because lies are so dangerous! 

On that truthfulness basis alone,  I recommend you vote for Biden/Harris,  and against the many other Trump “wannabees” down-ballot. 



Update 7-2-2024:  To summarize,  what we are required to trade off here is the rather strong likelihood of infirmity leading to inability to function,  in Joe Biden,  if selected for another term as President,  versus the strong likelihood of severe damage to,  or even the loss of,  our democracy with another term for Donald Trump,  plus the fair-to-middling likelihood of at least some infirmity trending toward inability,  affecting Trump during another term.

Joe Biden has a good,  credible backup in his VP,  Kamala Harris,  who could assume the duties and come up to speed almost immediately.  There is no risk to democracy with either her or Biden.  Donald Trump’s potential VP choices pose the same threat to democracy that he does,  since they all publicly promote the same lies that demonstrably provoked one insurrection already.  None of those VP choices would be immediately ready to assume the duties of President,  should Donald Trump’s cognitive or physical issues quickly worsen to the point of inability to function.

And then there is demonstrated behavior histories of the two candidates to consider.  Trump did everything he could,  legal or not,  to overturn his election loss in 2020,  up to and including using his lies about that election (over months) to incite an insurrection at the Capitol,  Jan. 6,  2021.  He also threatened to renege on our NATO obligation to defend our allies,  and clearly wanted us out of that alliance,  instead giving Putin everything he wants.  Biden has none of those rather egregious faults.

Weigh the risks for yourself:

Significant likelihood of inability with Biden,  but with a good replacement in Harris;  versus severe damage to,  or loss of,  our democracy with Trump,  plus no credible VP backup for Trump if inability should happen. 

The choice is quite clear:  Biden.



Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Thoughts on Multiple Bad Things

There’s lots of bad things going on the world,  notably in the middle east and Ukraine.  And there’s no clear “good guys vs bad guys” about the middle east,  despite so many claims otherwise on both sides.  There’s plenty of blame to go around there.  But not so much in Ukraine.

One thing has finally begun to become clear in the news reporting:  most of the death and destruction in the middle east is being done by proxy terrorist armies that are funded,  supplied,  and given marching orders by Iran.  These would include Hamas and Hezbollah,  the Houthis in Yemen,  plus some others in Iraq that have injured and killed US troops.  Here is the sense of a list of Iranian proxies that I got from the US State Department:

To this we need to add the following:  (1) the current direct Iranian attack upon Israel,  and (2) its Revolutionary Guard,  which has also directly attacked international shipping,  as well as being the private army that keeps the ruling mullahs in power in Iran.

The common thread here is Iran:  they have been ordering all this death and destruction,  and until recently,  have let their proxies do it for them.  The western nations have been striking back at the proxies,  but without any success at stopping the death and destruction,  not in about 4 decades! 

Iran itself has suffered no punishment whatsoever for doing all these evils,  mostly because the western nations do not want a general war in the middle east with Iran.  That has apparently been a policy mistake,  and needs to change.  And the mass attack upon Israel shows that the Iranians have finally been emboldened into acting directly,  instead of through their proxies,  likely precisely because they have never been punished.

Now,  don’t get me wrong:  the Iranian people are good people,  and have been our friends before,  and could be again.  They live in a sham democracy,  where the ruling mullahs can over-rule anything the elected people decide.  Those ruling mullahs are propped-up by a private army that ruthlessly suppresses dissent.  The mullahs themselves masquerade as religious leaders,  when they are in fact extremist terrorists who misuse and abuse religion to “justify” the evils they do. 

In point of fact,  there almost was a revolution in Iran about a decade ago,  but it failed for lack of outside support from us.  They had no chance against the private army (the Revolutionary Guard).

Now what Israel does is not under US control,  let that be perfectly clear!  They are a valued ally and friend in the middle east,  and one of the few democracies in the region that is not a sham democracy,  at least not yet.  And the US is sworn to help defend them when they are attacked,  that is also clear.  And we just did that,  helping to thwart the Iranian attack.

But,  the current elected government of Israel is a re-elected right-wing prime minister (Netanyahu) who this term leads a far-right coalition that is demonstrably a bit extreme.  This shows in the policies and strategies Israel has used in its Gaza war against Hamas,  that has led to incredibly-massive civilian casualties,  plus the approaching mass death-by-famine there. 

One might conclude that the overall goal here is that there be no Palestinian state,  because there are no Palestinians left to populate it.  And,  the current attack from Iran came about because (intentionally or not) the Israelis bombed an Iranian embassy in Syria. 

That being said,  Hamas is far worse!  That is a known terrorist organization that became the government in the Gaza strip,  in an armed takeover.  They give the people of Gaza just enough food to make them think that Hamas is their friend,  but then created a network of tunnels under every populated place in Gaza!  They hide behind a human shield at all opportunities,  and in fact prevented those civilians who were shielding them,  from evacuating before announced Israeli attacks!  No real government would do that,  but evil terrorists certainly would!  And did!

Now,  bear in mind another thing that must be made perfectly clear:  when you decide to attack an evildoer who hides behind a human shield,  the only way to strike him is through that shield!  There will be high civilian casualties when you do that,  it is inherent!  Using a human shield violates international law and anybody’s rules of war,  and that is exactly what the Hamas terrorists did. 

But the civilian casualties among the Palestinians in Gaza have been much higher than they needed to be,  and that’s the result of the policies of the right-wing extremist government of Israel.  So,  there really is plenty of blame to go around!  Israel needs to change-out its government,  that much is for sure!  Extremism is the true evil here;  right wing,  left wing,  makes no difference.  Both end up doing the same needless death,  destruction,  and oppression.  They both look the same to me!

 I think the wish to avoid a general war with Iran is the right thing,  but no consequences for Iran is the wrong thing! 

Here is an out-of-the-box idea:  what if Iran were to be struck,  but NOT invaded?  Struck in such a way as to enable the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the mullahs?  The mullahs that oppress them,  and who committed all this death and destruction all these decades?  What if the strike were to attempt two things:  (1) kill most or all of the mullahs,  decapitating that government,  and (2) destroying as many combat assets as possible,  of the Revolutionary Guard?  But without any invasion at all!  None!  Simply enable the people of Iran to do their own revolution.

I would predict that the terrorist proxies would slowly go away over time,  should we be successful.  They are currently funded and supplied massively by Iran,  and if Iran no longer did that,  their means to cause death and destruction would dry up. 

Iran has been supplying Putin’s Russia with weapons for its Ukraine war, too.  If that were to stop,  Ukraine would have a better chance to defend itself.  You need to understand,  Ukraine is the west’s proxy in the war against Putin’s Russia,  who will next attack NATO members in eastern Europe,  if he succeeds in Ukraine.  It was that way with Hitler in the 1930’s,  it is that way with Putin today.  History says all these dictators are pretty much alike. 

Ukraine has run short of weapons and ammunition,  which is partly stalled by the GOP in the US House of Representatives.  We’ve all seen that on the news.  They are now losing to Russia as a result. We have all seen that,  too.

If Ukraine loses,  we lose,  and thereby will eventually face World War 3 in Europe,  when an emboldened Putin tries to rebuild the old Soviet empire in eastern Europe,  out of countries now NATO members.  Plus,  that other evil dictator in China,  Xi Jinping,  will be emboldened to invade Taiwan and start World War 3 in the Pacific,  if Russia is successful in Ukraine!  So,  Ukraine cannot lose!  Period!  End of issue!

One GOP representative in the US House has publicly said he has heard colleagues spouting Russian propaganda on the floor of the US House.  That propaganda is aimed at stopping aid to Ukraine,  so that Putin can win.  I submit to you that voting against Ukraine aid,  is giving aid and comfort to Putin’s Russia,  which is clearly America’s enemy here!

It says in the US Constitution that one definition of treason is “aid and comfort to the enemy”,  and the standard for conviction requires only two witnesses in court to the act.  I wish the Justice Department would do something about what looks to me,  to be an awful lot like treason,  going on in the US House!

Defeating Putin’s Russia in Ukraine might possibly lead to one other good outcome for the US and the world:  he might be overthrown!  There’s likely a lot of Putin clones waiting in the wings,  but if the Russian people can get rid of them,  they might once again set foot on the path to a not-sham democracy.  They are good folk,  and could also be our friends once again.

Update 4-29-2024:  There are two additional facets to what I just said above.  There are pro-Palestinian demonstrations disrupting US college campuses,  with elements of anti-Semitism sneaking into some of them,  and the US Congress finally passed an aid bill for Ukraine,  although it is damagingly late doing so. 

Relative to the pro-Palestinian demonstrations,  I offer these opinions: 

First:  there is a portion of these demonstrators who are sincerely disturbed about the death toll so far in Gaza,  and the much larger one that looms due to approaching famine.  So am I.  There are also some outside agitators who have infiltrated onto these campuses,  stirring up the tendency to violence,  and stirring up the anti-Semitism,  while at the same time depicting the evil terrorists that are Hamas,  as innocent.  My hunch is that these outside agitators were sent here from outfits like Hamas and Hezbollah,  acting under marching orders from Iran.  This crap is massively on social media,  too,  in an internet totally unpoliced for truth.  What did you expect?

Second:  much of the reason for these excessive civilian casualties in Gaza lies with the far-right coalition that is the current government of Israel.  That does not mean all of Israel is like that,  but enough were of similar mindset to elect them.   Israel is our ally and friend and deserves our help.  But,  maybe not a totally free hand with the aid we give them,  until Israelis see fit to replace that far-right government with something not so inclined to kill civilians needlessly.  Unlike what the demonstrators seem to think,  the US does not control Israel’s actions.  All we can do is exert what influence we can.

Relative to the Ukraine War and belated aid from Congress for our proxy Ukraine:

Senator Mitch McConnel admitted on “Face the Nation” 4-28,  that the feuding Republicans are at fault for the defeats Ukraine has been suffering lately,  by delaying aid and weapons for too many months.  I actually agree with that,  but I go further.  There are two irreconcilable factions within the party,  which have successfully paralyzed much of our government for some years now.  That chaos and paralysis is actually the intent of one of those factions:  the so-called “MAGA Republicans”.

If you investigate the sites favored by such people,  you find out that the things they apparently believe and strive for,  overlap very strongly with the Q-Anon conspiracy theory.  The most well-known items include things like the “deep state” to be overthrown,  and the claim that Trump actually won the 2020 election,  but was denied his win by massive election fraud. 

Some of the other less-well-known things are actually rather frightening.  One is “the storm”,  which is the conflict that overthrows the “deep state”,  and in which the people of the “deep state” are rounded up and eliminated.  Specifications for this purge vary from site to site,  but the sense is that the “deep state” is actually everybody who opposes them,  which is more than half the country.  THAT is who they want to get rid of!

The most frightening thing relates to the chaos and paralysis they have been causing in our government.  If our government fails to function long enough,  the people will supposedly be more open to the alternative they offer,  which is a military-supported dictatorship,  precisely per the figure above.  (Trump’s advisor General Flynn,  advocated this in public during Trump’s term as President.)  Bear in mind that the Q-Anon community evolved into a fearless leader cult about Donald Trump almost a decade ago.  He is the dictator that they offer us.

The most treasonous thing they offer (besides the overthrow of our democracy) is the extreme isolationism denying all aid and cooperation with our allies,  in a time when we face major threats from Putin’s Russia,  Xi’s China,  the mullahs’ Iran,  and Kim’s North Korea,  plus all the terrorist proxy armies run mostly by Iran.  Denying aid and weapons to our proxy Ukraine (in the war against the expansionist aims of Putin’s Russia) is the way to see Ukraine defeated and Putin winning,  also encouraging Xi to invade Taiwan.  Aiding the enemy is the treason I speak of.  World War 3 is the ultimate consequence of that treason.

You have been warned (multiple times,  in my articles here on this site).  Now I urge you to rise up and do two things:  (1) vote these traitors out of our government,  and (2) demand that the DOJ prosecute them for their treason.

Update 5-6-2024:  The pro-Palestinian protests continue,  edging across the line into doing damage and committing crimes in some cases.  I think if you follow the money,  the students are too poor to have bought all that camping equipment,  Palestinian-style headgear,  and signage.  That's where the "outside agitators" come into this.  They provided the money and supplies,  and took advantage of mob psychology to stir protests into serious misbehavior.  Psychologically,  lynch mobs work exactly the same way.

The "outside agitator" effect is also a part of what these students see on their social media,  which is unfortunately pretty much the place where today's young people get their supposed "facts" and "information".  The internet is unpoliced for any sort of truth,  which is why should it surprise no one that social media is rife with misinformation and disinformation,  much of it emplaced there by this country's multiple hostile adversaries,  to include the terrorist organization Hamas itself.  That is exactly how the anti-Semitism is getting into this unrest!  Why would you expect anything different?

That being said,  look at what Netanyahu's far-right wing Israeli government is doing.  The ceasefire negotiations were effectively sabotaged by Netanyahu insisting that he was going to attack Rafah.  While they distributed leaflets warning civilians to evacuate,  I'd bet money they will start the bombing without actually trying to move anybody out of the way!  And because Hamas was stupid enough to attack a border crossing where food comes across for the starving civilians,  Netanyahu has closed that crossing,  which pretty much guarantees that lethal famine will spread quickly.  Far-right Israelis don't care about Palestinian lives,  that much is clear.  This may well be attempted genocide,  or at least a war crime.  Which is why Israelis need to replace their government,  and soon!

Hamas has had years to build tunnels under every place in Gaza where civilians live.  The results uncovered so far verify that they did exactly that.  Netanyahu is therefore probably correct in saying Hamas is hiding underneath Rafah.  He's willing to kill the civilians in the human shield to get at Hamas,  while making no real attempt to save any of them.  That's the proof of my characterization of him and the far-right wing government he leads.

Hamas also quite clearly does not care for the civilian Palestinian lives that it supposedly represents as their government,  since it invariably uses them as a human shield,  and has done nothing for them but bare subsistence,  and even that stopped with the war following the infamous October 7 attack!  All of that would be entirely expected of a terrorist organization and terrorist proxy army,  deserving only to be wiped from the face of the Earth!  QED.

Meanwhile,  the terrorist fake mullahs that rule Iran have still suffered zero consequences for waging proxy war against Israel and the rest of the west,  with their Hamas,  Hezbollah,  and Houthis,  plus some others less well known in Iraq and Syria (that have killed US troops).  That needs to change,  or there will never be any peace in the middle east!  They've been the chief problem since shortly after taking over from the Shah. 

Some of the disinformation and misinformation that the protesting students get from social media was placed there by Putin's Russia.  I suspect Iran and China placed some there,  and I wouldn't put it past some of the proxy terrorists to have done so as well.  It is way past time to find some equitable way to stop the disinformation and misinformation that is so rampant all across the internet.  

This should also apply to radio and television.  I just haven't seen anyone in,  or running for,  Congress in the last 20-or-30 years that I consider smart enough,  and with enough honesty and integrity,  to actually do it!  Think about THAT the next time you vote!

Meanwhile,  Putin has taken full advantage of the unconscionable delays by the US and NATO at getting weapons to our proxy Ukraine in the war to thwart Putin's thirst for expansion and conquest.  The fault for that in the US (the extremist faction of the GOP misbehaving) was discussed just above,  and so far,  no one has been called to account for that!  That needs to change!  Right now!

Weapons are now finally on the way to Ukraine,  and suddenly Putin is barking threats to use nuclear weapons again!  Did nobody else notice the close timing of those two things?  His past pattern is to squawk and threaten,  whenever anybody in the west does anything that might thwart his expansionist plans.  I think we are seeing exactly that pattern again.  Which simply means massively arming Ukraine and ensuing their victory is PRECISELY the right thing to be doing!  Even if NATO has to go in there and help them!

Update 5-11-2024:  A couple of things seem to be coming to head,  with regard to the Israel-Hamas war and the protests it has sparked.  

First:  the administration has had a report done,  examining whether the Israelis violated US laws and regulations,  regarding the use of the weapons and equipment we gave them.  Meanwhile,  it has paused the delivery of 2000 lb and 500 lb bombs,  while this report was being produced.  The idea is that the US should not be complicit in any Israeli activities that the world may eventually deem to be war crimes.  This seems to me like the prudent thing for the US to do.  

The reader should note that Netanyahu and other far-right figures in Israel are quite publicly angry about the US pausing those bomb deliveries.  However,  more moderate figures in Israel are not!  Further,  there is considerable unrest and protest in Israel over the conduct of this war.  Given my assessments given above of the current Israeli government,  this outcome should surprise no one. 

The gist of the report is very critical of the Israelis for the vast number of civilian casualties they have caused in Gaza so far,  but not that our laws or regulations have actually been violated.  Dropping big bombs on a city densely full of civilians is certainly not something we in these modern times would want to do,  without making some serious effort to move them out of the way.  

All that being said,  I suspect the weapons deliveries to resume soon,  which will probably spark more protests here.

Second:  as described above,  I believe that the bulk of the actual students out protesting have been misled and stirred up by disinformation on social media,  that being the only thing they look at for their information,  or any other purposes.  That disinformation was put there by our adversaries.  The authorities would be wise to look closely into that,  and consider how best to police the internet for truth.  The free speech right in the First Amendment is NOT an absolute right:  no one is allowed to yell "fire" in a crowded theatre,  unless there really is one!  And inciting riots is a crime,  and quite properly so!

 Also as described above,  I believe that non-students have been leading these protests and supplying the money and means to do them,  especially the encampments and barricades.  Students are generally too poor to have bought all those tents,  for one thing!  The authorities would also be wise to look into that possibility.  If such outsiders are among the protesters arrested,  laws regarding incitement to riot have been violated,  along with laws about trespass and destruction of property.  If the outsiders prove to be foreigners,  deportation would also be appropriate,  but only after serving the appropriate sentences.

Update 5-20-2024:  To my surprise,  the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued {update 5-24-2024:  prosecutor has asked the International Criminal Court to issue} arrest warrants for certain top Israeli leaders and certain top Hamas leaders!  Israel,  for killing too many civilians trying to kill Hamas (deservedly so,  after Oct 7),  and Hamas,  for hiding underneath the civilian population they supposedly govern,  as their human shield,  not to mention the Oct 7th atrocity they committed. 

I doubt this actually leads anywhere,  but it certainly helps make two of my main points: (1) Hamas is a bunch of terrorists who certainly deserve to be wiped from the face of the Earth for the evils they commit,  and (2) the far right extremist government of Israel needs to be changed,  because it is killing way too many women and children while trying to kill Hamas,  and quite probably intentionally. 

My third point has yet to be addressed by anyone:  Hamas,  Hezbollah,  the Houthis in Yemen,  and several more terrorist groups,  are all proxy armies that are funded,  supplied,  and given marching orders by the terrorist fake-mullah "government" of Iran.  That government needs to fall.  And soon.


Sunday, December 10, 2023

Conspiracies Have Short Lifetimes

As most readers of this blog already know,  I have long denounced the conspiracy theory that there is some evil “deep state” in control of our government and others around the world.  This derives largely from Qanon and similar or related sites on the internet,  all very popular with right-wing and far-right readers.  While some aspects and pieces of this movement date earlier,  this became a fearless leader cult around Donald Trump during 2015,  as he began his run for the Presidency in the 2016 election. 

Key to this is supposedly secret information about forces led by Trump to depose this “deep state”.  This is to take place as a “storm” during which “deep state” people will be rounded up,  imprisoned,  perhaps tried or perhaps not,  but definitely executed.  Invariably,  the persons identified as targets of this “storm” are Hollywood elites,  Democrats all over,  and any Republicans who are not Trump cultists (referred to as RINO’s).  Also invariably,  cultists refer especially to Democrats as being evil enemies of the state,  worthy only of being killed,  which has inspired considerable “lone wolf” violence of late.  

To accomplish this requires overthrowing our democracy and replacing it with a Trump-led dictatorship.  That’s the secret!  Which is exactly why so many Trump cultists have become publicly known to be “authoritarians” (meaning advocates of a dictatorship in America).  It is why Trump himself has recently begun saying “dictatorship on only day one” if re-elected.  The only part of that which is a lie,  is the word “only”.  And given his track record over the decades for egregious lying,  that is no surprise at all!

Secrets are hard to keep,  and with conspiracies to keep them secret,  there are invariably some numbers of people who know about them.  It has always been the pattern in the past,  that eventually somebody talks and spills the secret.   Thus there is some sort of finite “lifetime” that such information,  and the conspiracy to keep it secret,  both have.

I ran across a news item on the PBS NewsHour web site that describes the modeling of such conspiracy lifetimes.  This was “How Many People Does It Take to Keep a Conspiracy Alive?”,  which I retrieved from their web site 7 December 2023.  It was apparently published there 15 February 2016,  but I missed it back then.  The article reports the published academic work of one David Robert Grimes at Oxford University,  who found an equation modeling this effect as lifetime-to-revelation versus number-of-people-involved.  He reportedly published this equation in the Journal PLOS ONE.

I did not track down his published article.  The PBS NewsHour article gave enough numerical data for me to just reverse-engineer an approximation to what Grimes apparently found and published.  I simply keyed the quoted data into a spreadsheet,  plotted and re-plotted the data multiple ways,  and attempted some curve-fit equations.  One of those worked rather well,  and is probably fairly close to the Grimes result.  I even found one “bad data point” item quoted in the PBS news article.  My work is depicted by the plots in Figure 1.  It is the log-log plot options that produced fittable curves.

Figure 1 – Reverse-Engineering a Correlation Equation From Quoted Data (Excluding “Bad Data Point”)

The modeling equation that worked best,  as indicated by the higher Pearson’s r-squared parameter,  is in the upper right plot of the figure.  It models the data quite well.  It is:

               Y = 4.4378 [log10(no. of ppl)]-1.235

               Life, yrs = 10Y

Now,  apply this to the Trump-cult (Qanon) conspiracy,  whose “secret” is that they want a Trump-led dictatorship in the US,  and also that they want to kill all their opposition!  This formed about 8 years ago in 2015 during the campaign leading to the 2016 election.  Solving iteratively the equation-in-reverse for a 8-year life,  then no more than about 4262 persons could know about the secret,  and still have it remain hidden the 8 years since then.  That’s clearly not the case,  as there are millions of Trump supporters who voted for him in both 2016 and 2020.  At least some of them are cult believers.

Alternatively,  in those elections,  there were 80-something millions of Trump voters.  I picked 82 million as an estimate,  just to be the right magnitude only.  Assuming all of them are part of the Trump-cult conspiracy,  the equation says the expected lifetime before the secret gets revealed would be only about 2.2 years.  The assumption I made is not correct,  but using it helps bound the problem between these two results:  2.2 vs 8 years after the 2015 campaign.  The “right” answer must lie between these points.

In actuality,  the revelation that Trump and his advisors were integrally associated with the Qanon theory came out during his Presidential administration January 2017-January 2021.  Trump’s then-adviser retired General Flynn publicly advocated for Trump to replace our democracy with a dictatorship led by Trump,  so that the “deep state” could be “overthrown” and eliminated!  This really means all their opposition being rounded up and killed,  exactly like what happened when Adolf Hitler’s Nazis took over Germany.  This revelation happened about 4 years ago,  exactly between the bounds I just defined!

Using the equation iteratively-in-reverse again,  on the 4 years since the 2015 campaign to sometime in 2019,  it estimates the number of really hard-core,  extremist Trump-cult believers to be about 109,700.  While not millions,  that’s large enough to be very alarming,  as the pool from which right-wing extremist violence can most likely be expected to come.  And we have already seen it.

And,  we already have several Representatives and a few Senators who so very clearly come from this cult.  So,  why is our Congressional dysfunction a surprise?  It’s part of their plan!  Chaos instead of governing helps to “justify” their radical change to a dictatorship under Trump.

Subtracting that roughly 110,000 true-believer cultists from about 82 million evident Trump voters,  that says something like 81.9 million voters have been deceived by this cult,  into voting for a would-be dictator over the US,  who has already attempted an insurrection and takeover on 6 January 2021. 

And THAT ought to scare the ever-loving shit out of almost anybody!

Please wake up out there!


Wednesday, November 16, 2022

You Are What You Spout

 



For those who haven't guessed,  the named of the file is "Trump horse shit.png".

Update 12-5-2020:  add another funny to this.  It is one possibility for dealing with Trump's "Truth Social" platform,  which is anything but truthful. 



Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Time For Change

Here are some cartoons related to the recent peaceful transition of power 1-20-21.  These were circulating around on Facebook,  where my wife found them.  The first one pretty much speaks for itself,  except that I think it is understated (“it’s way past time” would be closer to correct).


About the only change I would make to it,  would be to show the target somewhere in the background.  That would be the “trash heap of history”,  complete with “bad smell” wisps.  I agree with many others who are already saying that Trump will go down in history as the worst president we have ever had. 

That “worst” rating would specifically be for inciting an insurrection as an attempted coup on January 6th,  trying to stay in power after his term was supposed to be over on the 20th.  Insurrection is not technically treason under the law,  but it is very close to treason,  and the same law covers both offenses (18 USC part 1 chapter 115 sections 2381 and 2383).  What is in the House’s article of impeachment for inciting the insurrection,  is essentially language from that law’s section 2383.

You can see how much he really cares about the consequences to the followers he incited to violence:  none of the insurrectionists were pardoned,  yet he very publicly reversed himself away from the failed insurrection,  but only after it failed.  That leaving them “out to dry” is the hallmark of the “fearless leader” in most fearless leader cults.  A related article on this site discusses those (see list below).

And that incitement was not just what he said the morning of the insurrection,  but what he said every day,  from election night forward to the 6th.  Unfortunately,  he was not alone in saying those things.  More unfortunately,  the followers believed them.  And too many still do.  While Trump himself is gone,  the threat of far-right violence continues.  This is evidenced by continued warnings from the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security.

The next funny is just a play on words,  albeit quite the good one.  It does bring up a valid question to discuss,  though.  


That question is:  how does the Republican party live down its (in hindsight very egregious) error in letting Trump be its nominee for the 2016 election? 

Back in 2016,  a whole lot of people were bamboozled into voting for Trump,  despite having already seen exactly what kind of person he really was,  on his reality TV show.  What you saw on his show was exactly what you would get from him as president:  a total asshole.  And so he was.  For 4 long years.

After 4 years in office spreading lies and chaos,  doing far more bad than any good,  and stirring up the far-right extremists in this country,  those extremists came to dominate the Republican voter base,  and so elected fellow extremists to a fair fraction of Republican-held offices in the House and Senate. 

Most of the more conventional,  more centrist Republicans have either died or retired,  or were primaried-out for not being sufficiently extremist.  Most of the rest sold themselves out to the extremists,  just to stay in office.  When you combine that extremism with the long pre-existing “party-of-no” approach (for which you can thank Newt Gingrich,  Paul Ryan,  and Eric Cantor in 1992),  you get a very toxic brew that stops nearly all debate and compromise,  thus paralyzing Congress. 

And you get a Senate that may not convict Trump of the otherwise slam-dunk insurrection impeachment charge,  because too many of them are either rabid Trump supporters themselves,  or are extreme enough to prioritize opposing Democrats over what would be so obviously right for the country.

That extremist takeover has to go,  or it will be the end of the Republican party.  And that would be something I’d rather not see happen.  Read on.

A key diagnostic for some degree of extremism to look for is the claim that “all Democrats are far leftists,  or even just plain evil”.  That contention is patently false,  on the face of it,  and is just one of many false beliefs virulently spread on social media and the internet. 

Yes,  there are some far leftists among the Democrats,  but there are more centrists than any other classification,  or else Joe Biden would not have been their nominee for 2020!  QED.  It’s really a spectrum and a distribution of belief about how to approach government.  As it should be.  There are no new ideas if there is no diversity of ideas.   You need new ideas when the old ones no longer work. 

That’s actually true of both parties,  but the divide between the moderates and the extremists in the Republican party is far sharper,  and the moderates are in the minority,  and have been for a few years now.  Most of the estimates I have seen indicate that 50% to 75% of Republican voters believe some (or all) of the false extremist claims of the Qanon conspiracy theory.  And that’s just way too much!

The country really does need two good parties from which to choose candidates.  With the extremist takeover of the Republicans,  we do not have that choice!  We need that wide spectrum and distribution of ideas for better government,  something that two good parties was able to bring.  We need it again.

And that’s my take on it.  Before you get too upset with what I said,  remember that I am an independent.  I really do wish we had two good parties to choose from,  and I am very discouraged that we currently don’t.

As for the “change” per the title of this article,  the one I want to see most is change in the Republican party from extremist domination back to something “normal”.   We don’t really get to vote for that in the elections,  at least not directly.  So I don’t yet know how that might be accomplished.

Related Articles About the Danger of Far-Right Extremist Beliefs and Fearless-Leader Cults

1-17-21               Sometimes You Simply Must Do What Is Right

1-10-21               It Ain’t Over Yet

1-1-21                  Observations About the Mainstream Media,  And Much More

12-18-20             Q As A Threat to the US

2-13-20               Beware of Leader Cults


Sunday, January 17, 2021

Sometimes You Simply Must Do What Is Right

The events of January 6th at the Capitol were an evil that must be dealt-with.  We have long had federal laws in place that deal with insurrections (which is exactly what we saw),  as well as sedition,  and treason.  This law needs to be used to correct the dangerous behaviors we all saw.  The false beliefs that drove this are simply too widespread to ignore.  Our democracy is in serious danger,  from what amounts to a large potential number of political-extremist domestic terrorists,  inflamed by lies. 

Here is the relevant federal law for the insurrection that we all saw happen at the Capitol on the 6th:

18 USC Part 1 Crimes Chapter 115: Treason,  sedition,  and subversive activities

§ 2383. Rebellion or insurrection

Whoever incites, sets on foot, assists, or engages in any rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof, or gives aid or comfort thereto, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.

(June 25, 1948, ch. 645, 62 Stat. 808; Pub. L. 103–322, title XXXIII, § 330016(1)(L), Sept. 13, 1994, 108 Stat. 2147.)

I suggest we apply it to many persons,  in multiple roles ---

All those “protestors” who scaled the steps and entered the Capitol building on January 6th:

“Whoever incites, sets on foot, assists, or engages in any rebellion or insurrection” – they all would seem to be guilty in a slam-dunk case,  as evidenced by what was seen on the live TV feeds,  and the testimony of those inside the Capitol who were threatened by it. 

President Trump:

“Whoever incites, sets on foot, assists, or engages in any rebellion or insurrection” – he would seem to be guilty in a slam-dunk case,  as he literally told the insurrectionists to go to the Capitol in his speech the morning of January 6th. This was evidenced by what was seen on the live TV feeds.

“Whoever incites, sets on foot, assists, or engages in any rebellion or insurrection” – he would seem to be guilty in a slam-dunk case,  as he has claimed “election fraud” and “stolen election” since the night of the November 3rd election,  and claimed these things wrongly,  as the 60-some court cases and the Department of Justice investigations have determined.  These claims were used to inflame the emotions of supporters over the election result,  which is the very definition of the word “incite”.

Either of these two readings of the law are in accord with the wording of the Article of Impeachment pending against Mr. Trump,  now awaiting a Senate trial.

Congressional figures giving “reconnaissance tours” on January 5th:

“Whoever incites, sets on foot, assists, or engages in any rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof, or gives aid or comfort thereto” – these persons would seem to be guilty in a rather credible case,  with actual evidence to be turned up by appropriate investigation.  So far,  I have seen the names of 3 House members alleged to have done this.

Update 1-23-21:  Because these names are already a matter of public record,  it cannot hurt the case for or against them, if I mention them here:  House members Andy Biggs (R-AZ),  Paul Gosar (R-AZ),  and Mo Brooks (R-AL).  There may,  or may not,  be others. 

Congressional figures communicating helpful information to the insurrectionists during the event:

“Whoever incites, sets on foot, assists, or engages in any rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof, or gives aid or comfort thereto” – such persons would seem to be guilty in a rather strong and very egregious case,  with evidence to be turned up by appropriate investigation.  So far,  I have seen the name of 1 House member alleged to have done this.  This behavior could very credibly be construed as not just assisting,  but actually engaging in,  the insurrection.  Such is very serious indeed!

Update 1-23-21:  Because this name is already a matter of public record,  it cannot hurt that I mention it here:  House member Lauren Boebert (R-CO),  a known Qanon follower.  There may,  or may not,  be others. 

Congressional figures persisting in claiming disproven election fraud as the basis of their electoral tally objections:

“Whoever incites, sets on foot, assists, or engages in any rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof, or gives aid or comfort thereto” --  these persons would seem to be guilty in a fairly strong case,  evidenced by the roll call of electoral tally objection votes even after the insurrection was over,  despite the pre-insurrection proof that these claims were false! 

Update 1-23-21:  there has been filed a Senate ethics committee complaint,  for spreading the election fraud lie that inflamed the insurrection,  both before and after the insurrection.  Those named are Senate members Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Josh Hawley (R-MO).  There may,  or may not,  be others.  

There is plenty of latitude to adjust the penalties to the severity of each case:

“shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.” – could be a fine or imprisonment,  or both.  That choice,  and the amount of the fine,  is thus left up to the judge.  Imprisonment is limited to 10 years max,  so it could be anywhere from 0 to 10 years.

Here is the part not left to the discretion of the judge:

“shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.” – this part is mandatory and it is permanent (meaning life-long),  no matter what else is done!  It has the benefit to the entire country of ridding a political party of certain proven-dangerous extremists as feasible candidate choices.

Update 1-23-21:  in addition to Mr. Trump himself,  there are also close associates and family members under suspicion of inciting,  or aiding-and-abetting,  the insurrectionists.  There are also members of the Capitol police who may, or may not,  have aided-and-abetted,  or actually participated-in,  the insurrection.  The FBI is certainly pursuing the insurrectionists themselves.  We'll see what transpires as the various investigations unfold. 

As for the possible Senate impeachment trial results:

There are two stages to this,  guilt-or-acquittal,  and penalty determination if guilty.  Note that acquittal is not the same as innocence,  the definitions of those words differ!  It is my opinion that acquittal would be a serious miscarriage of justice,  but that is for the Senate to decide,  not me.  Conviction requires a 2/3 majority vote.  Determining the penalty after conviction requires only a simple majority vote.

Under impeachment,  the penalty has to be voted upon by the Senate,  but only if convicted.  I believe they will use the cited law to guide what they can and cannot do.  For insurrection per section 2383,  ineligibility to ever hold federal office again is mandatory,  but with great latitude regarding fines and no more than 10 years of imprisonment.  (Permanent ineligibility,  fines of at least $10,000 and at least 5 years of imprisonment,  or even death,  are the penalties for treason in section 2381.) 

My Own Take:

There are many people who need to be called to account for what took place at the Capitol on January 6th.  I have mentioned only some in this article.  The FBI is certainly trying to do their part to bring insurrectionists to justice.  I do worry about figures in positions of power who might not be called to account for their parts in this.  That is why I wrote this article.  We will see how that goes,  as these events continue to unfold. 

What I Suggest:

Watch closely what your Representatives and Senators actually do.  In addition to the impending impeachment trial,  they need to police their own,  as I indicated above.  Contact them frequently,  and tell them in no uncertain terms what you want done,  and that you are watching closely.

If you don’t understand that there was no fraud/steal to the 2020 election,  I sincerely urge you to re-examine not only your beliefs in light of the observed facts,  but also the credibility of the sources who convinced you of those falsehoods.  It is essentially impossible to make good decisions based on bad data.  Therefore it is incumbent on you to make sure those data you use are good.

And Another Thing:

Every federal officeholder takes a form of the same oath taken by those who enter the military (and I did,  so I know firsthand):  “to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies,  foreign and domestic”.  A very clear implication of that oath is that the good of the country takes precedence over all personal or political considerations.  Such is too often forgotten today. 

I would like to see two things done:

(1) that implied top priority of the good of the country be made explicit in these oaths of office,  and

(2) the breaking of that oath of office needs to be made a crime.  The specification of that crime should explicitly include behavior that demonstrates prioritizing personal or political advantage over the good of the country. 

That last sure would clean up a lot of Congressional misbehavior,  now,  wouldn’t it?  And maybe some misbehaviors we have seen in recent decades in the Executive branch as well.  (Doesn’t matter which party you favor,  they have both routinely misbehaved.)

Closely-Related Articles on this Site:

10 January 2021              It Ain’t Over Yet

1 January 2021                 Observations About the Mainstream Media,  and Much More

18 December 2020          Q As A Threat to the US

13 February 2020            Beware of Leader Cults

You can access any of these quickly using the navigation tool at the left side of this page.  Click on the year,  then click on the month.  Then click on the title,  if more than one shows for that month. 

Warnings:

Keep your eyes peeled for more insurrection or related violence directed at the Inauguration on the 20th,  and around the country after that.  So says the FBI.

Keep your eyes peeled for more similar violence after the Senate impeachment trial of Mr. Trump,  especially if he is convicted.  That is my prediction,  based on the Qanon “fearless leader” cult built around him ever since the 2016 election.

If you recognize a perpetrator,  I do encourage you to turn them in to the FBI.  That is your duty as a citizen of this Republic,  especially since such violence borders on treason.  Not reporting actual treason that is known to you is also a crime,  under another section of the same law I cited.  (Go look for yourself:  it is section 2382 Misprision of treason.)  Insurrection isn’t defined as treason,  but it is very close.  That is the implication of the law I cited.

Update 1-20-2021:  

The massive presence of protective troops seems to have deterred any sort of mob violence or assassination attempt at the inauguration in DC.  Similar precautions seem to have deterred problems at the state capitals.  

That's good,  but when the protection relaxes,  the risk is still there.  Those extremists are still out there,  still large in number,  and still believing the lies that motivated the insurrection on the 6th. 

The next "sore point" that may provoke further mob action will likely be the Senate trial of Mr. Trump's impeachment.  The date for that has yet to be revealed.  Keep your eyes peeled.  

Update 1-23-21:  that date for the start of the Senate impeachment trial is now said to be the week of February 8. 

Update 10-26-2021:  The GOP-controlled Senate at the time of the second impeachment trial refused to hear witnesses or do anything about the insurrection,  or about the now-former President who incited it to stay in power,  despite losing the 2020 election.  Some of them said in public that "Yes,  Trump did it,  but we won't convict him."  Evil!  

As far as I am concerned,  every single one of them is therefore complicit in the insurrection.  Every single one of them should be indicted under 18 US Code Part 1 Chapter 115 section 2383,  and tried in federal court.  Conviction means they can never hold federal office again.  At least we would be rid of Mitch McConnell,  who so very demonstrably priorities party advantage over the public good.  (Another evil!)

For doubters,  consider this:  every American President (but one) throughout my entire lifetime has been rushed to a secure location whenever there has been violence in the vicinity of the White House.  Mr. Trump was not rushed to a secure location.  Instead,  he simply remained in the White House,  watching the insurrection he incited,  on TV,  just to see if the military would support his attempted coup.  

Fortunately for us,  the military did not support the coup. 

What still scares the shit out of me is that nearly half the people around me still believe Trump's lie that the election was stolen!  The same folks still want him to be President,  and about half of those actually  want a military-supported dictatorship with Trump as its head.  Evil!  Evil!  Evil!

Sunday, January 10, 2021

It Ain’t Over Yet!

My friend and colleague Bill Whitaker did an excellent job with his column in the Waco Tribune-Herald calling out the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th,  as the abomination that it was.  Many are now asking “why this happened”?  Here is my take on “why”.  Be warned,  many of you will not like this,  because to tell you that “why”,  I might have to challenge what you may believe.

The Trump presidency continues until noon January 20th,  unless he is removed from office earlier in some way.  What you may not yet know is that his “fearless leader” cult,  the Qanon community,  are pushing for him to declare martial law,  despite the failed coup attempt on the 6th.  This is now to be justified by the supposed presence of "Antifa terrorists" masquerading as Trump supporters. 

These ringers supposedly actually started the break-in as a false-flag operation to discredit the real Trump supporters.  I got this first hand from a youtube video from one (of many) known Qanon outlets (David Zhang's "Beyond the Noise"),  forwarded to me by a friend whom I know to be a fervent Qanon believer. 

By way of reality check,  there is no single,  or even a few,  organizations that could be called "Antifa".  That is merely a label applied to an unorganized and rather-varied class of leftist extremists.  Some of these are no doubt terrorists,  but they are more of a threat individually,  not as an organization.  So the latest ploy of blaming Antifa,  instead of Trump supporters incited to violence,  is simply untrue.

The real organized threat here is the Qanon community itself,  which is a definite (if informal) organization,  now communicating on the GAB and PARLER services,  having just been chased off Twitter and Facebook (for being a dangerous organization promoting violence.)   And,  they have been identified as a serious domestic terror threat by the FBI.  We just saw this warning come true,  with the events of the 6th. 

Here is the danger:  the only people still close to President Trump are those advisors who are known to be Qanon believers.  Those include Michael Flynn,  Sidney Powell,  and to one extent or another,  Rudy Giuliani.  Their Q-derived falsehoods are essentially all he hears!  And we know already that those falsehoods can incite violence out of people.  

As long as he holds the presidency,  Mr. Trump still has his finger on the nuclear trigger,  as well as the ability to order conventional war.

------------------

Update 14 January 2021:  It appears that the mob had insider help getting into the Capitol,  and insider help for locating those they intended to kidnap.  (It also appears that insider help was not just a officer or two letting them in.)  And,  I presume that the mob intended to execute their prisoners,  because I saw on the video the gallows they had set up.

Move On has published the names of 3 Republican Congressmen they accuse of participating in the planning of the attack,  with a reconnaisance tour the day before.  We will see if that accusation bears up.  And I suspect there are more instances of such treachery.  

Move On has also repeated the accusation that I heard earlier off mainstream reports that known Qanon believer Congresswoman Lauren Boebert (R-CO) was tweeting Nancy Pelosi's location to the mob during the attack.  That does not surprise me,  given the other things she has said.  

If proven to be true,  these allegations just go to prove my point about how dangerous this Qanon conspiracy really is,  when added to all the far-right extremist groups out there.

As I said,  I think more of this treachery will be revealed.  Those who did this must be held accountable,  and it's not just Trump,  that is for sure!  

We will soon see if the Senate can act for the people in Trump's second impeachment case,  under the condition that about two thirds of Republican Senators seem to be partial or total subscribers to the Qanon lies.  The first time around,  they essentially admitted that he "did it",  but they still did not choose to convict. 

--------------------

Further,  the risk of more mob violence to stop the transition of power between now and January 20th is still quite serious,  precisely because there are still hordes of rabid Trump supporters unwilling to accept his election defeat,  instead sincerely believing it was stolen by fraud!  The inauguration itself will prove to be the next target.  The same kind of crowd that attacked the Capitol on the 6th is now threatening on-line to bring their guns to the inauguration.

The best estimates I can find indicate that something like half to three quarters of Republicans and Trump supporters believe at least some of the false Qanon claims about reality.  Many of them may not really know where these claims actually come from,  getting their supposed news and information from social media “echo chambers” that (until recently) were entirely unpoliced for truth. 

Qanon is a “fearless leader” cult around Trump that started in 2017,  not long after he was elected (see the Wikipedia article about Qanon for a good start at understanding this).  It has very definite fascist or authoritarian roots in its beginnings on the internet.  Almost none of those who lean Democrat are involved with this,  and apparently few of them know much about it.  However,  it is always best to understand a potential adversary,  which is why I have investigated this cult. 

-----------------------

My version of the list of those claims follows,  with some notes about them that are my opinions: 

#1. There is a stealthy cabal of Satan-worshipping child-traffickers that controls everything,  known as the “Deep State”,  which is composed mostly of Democrats,  plus some Republicans-in-name-only.  Mr. Trump is secretly leading the fight to overturn this cabal.  This claim dates to the beginning of the Qanon community. 

Typically,  only the true believers say much about this claim.  The politicians who merely pander to the believers among their constituents,  rarely say much about this one.

Update 1-23-21:  Why would this claim be true when the other 4 claims are false?

#2. There is supposed to be an event called ”the Storm”,  in which the “Deep State” is overthrown by Trump with the US military,  leading to mass arrests,  imprisonments in Guantanamo Bay,  military tribunals,  and mass executions.  In its most extreme form,  the secret executions have already begun.  This claim,  too,  has been around since the beginning of the Qanon cult.  However,  not much has been said about this claim since Trump’s November election loss,  to the best of my knowledge.

Again,  this one was typically mentioned only by the true believers,  and not much at all by the pandering politicians.

Update 1-23-21:  Trump is out of the presidency,  and is headed for a Senate impeachment trial sometime after Feb 8.  The military is demonstrably loyal per their oaths to the Constitution,  and so to their new commander-in-chief,  President Joseph Biden,  per the inauguration on the 20th.  There was no "Storm".  There will be no "Storm".  That claim is demonstrably false.  

#3. The SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 pandemic is an overblown hoax;  the disease really being only an ordinary influenza,  with medical entities paid by the government (the “Deep State”) to inflate disease and death figures.  Extreme forms make false claims about the purpose or safety of the Covid-19 vaccines.  Another common corollary is that wearing a mask to slow disease spread is somehow unAmerican,  or an infringement on liberty.  These claims date to 2019,  right after the disease first appeared in the US.

Both true believers,  and pandering politicians,  make this claim.  This false belief and the irresponsible behavior it engenders,  is why Trump rallies and parties have been superspreader events.  That is not to say that holiday gatherings and people gathered in bars are not also superspreader events,  because they are.

Update 1-23-21:  stats say 500,000 dead by February,  which is substantially larger than those we lost during WW2.  This disease is on track to exceed the toll of the 1918 pandemic in a shorter period of time (675,000 dead in 2 years).  The claim is demonstrably false on the face of it.

#4. The November 2020 election was a ”win” for Trump,  stolen from him by massive election fraud.  Despite the lawsuit record of 60+ lawsuits thrown out by courts for a total lack of any credible evidence,  this belief persists very strongly!  It is the primary incitement motivation for the attempted insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th.  This is a very dangerous belief!

This is a very fervent belief among Qanon true believers,  and also among the many who believe only part of the Qanon claims,  and it has been widely disseminated by many Republican politicians,  who pander to the believers among their constituents.  This falsehood is the basis for the GOP Representatives and Senators who objected to the electoral vote tallies from the swing states.

Update 1-23-21:  this claim was demonstrably false,  and that was known before the insurrection on the 6th!  The 60-some court cases thrown out for lack of credible evidence are rather conclusive,  not to mention all the election officials' certifications regardless of their party affiliations,  and ex-AG Barr's statement about there having been no massive fraud,  despite his prior unflinching support of Mr. Trump.  

#5. The mainstream media are “fake news”,  being controlled by the “Deep State”,  and lying to the public for them.  We have heard from Mr. Trump’s own mouth the epithet “fake news” since his original run for office.  He may,  in fact,  be where the Qanon community got this phrase,  and incorporated it into their ”Deep State controls everything” falsehood. 

This one is quoted by true Q believers,  and by the Trump supporters who do not necessarily subscribe to all the claims,  and until recently by some of the pandering politicians.  It’s not really a screening tool.  It may actually be a corollary to claim 1,  but it does predate that claim.

Update 1-23-21:  events through the inauguration have unfolded exactly as reported by the supposedly-"fake news" "mainstream media",  and not at all in accordance with the Qanon claims.  Proof enough that the "mainstream media" are not "fake news" at all.  This is quite obviously a true statement when you understand that "mainstream media" means the 5 broadcast TV news outlets and their websites,  not the bullshit seen on cable TV,  or internet social media,  or heard on talk radio.  

-----------------------------

Now you know why some folks believe strange stuff politically,  and behave the way that they do.  And you also now know how to tell who they are.  And why the very serious risk to democracy continues as long as this leader cult’s false belief system persists.  

I do think we have to do something about some of the falsehoods that spread all across the internet,  specifically those that could incite riots or worse.  Especially those that are already revealed to have caused violence. 

But we have to be very careful how exactly we do that.  The elements are (1) falsehood,  and (2) dangerous to the public safety.  It has to be both.  This is exactly like it being illegal in all 50 states to yell “fire” in a crowded theater,  when there is none.  People could be hurt or killed by that.  False plus dangerous.  See?

These many internet communication services,  big or small,  are all owned and operated by people.  Those people seem to be completely un-responsible for the damages done (or risked) by any lies told on their services.  So,  such are unpoliced. 

I suggest we make those owners and operators responsible for the damages risked or done by lies told on their various services.  Personally responsible. With big fines that their organizations cannot pay for them.  Jail time if egregious-enough a case.

It’ll take an example or two before the word gets out that we-the-people are serious about this.  But once the word does get out,  these owners and operators will police their own services for dangerous content.  And the reach of violence-inspiring conspiracy theories like Qanon will be greatly reduced.

Many will object to this,  on the basis of “restricting free speech”.  But my counter argument is that NO right is absolute!  All rights have common sense limits! 

·        My right to swing my fist ends BEFORE I strike another.  So does yours. 

·        My right to carry and use a gun ends BEFORE I shoot somebody else,  except in self defense,  and only as a last resort.  So does yours. 

·        My right to free speech does NOT include yelling “fire” in a crowded theater when there is none.  Neither does yours. 

·        Etc.

And THAT is my take on it!

--------------------------------

Closely-related articles on this site include the following list.  Use the navigation tool on the left to find them quickly.  Click on the year,  then the month,  then the title (if necessary). 

1-1-21          Observations About the Mainstream Media,  And Much More

12-18-20      Q As A Threat to the US

2-13-20        Beware of Leader Cults

Update 1-17-2021:  add "Sometimes You Simply Must Do What Is Right"  published 1-17-2021.